Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The nickel market is expected to be in a long - term oversupply situation, with the nickel price of contract 2512 likely to fluctuate weakly and test the cost support [2]. - The stainless - steel market of contract 2512 is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Price Movement**: Last week, the nickel price fluctuated weakly, and trading improved. On November 7, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was 120,900 yuan, up 400 yuan from the previous day [2][12]. - **Fundamentals**: Nickel ore prices are firm as the rainy season in the Philippines approaches, and sea freight is stable. Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the cost line moves down. New nickel production capacity is put into operation while some production is cut, with short - term output possibly decreasing but long - term supply remaining strong. The new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost to the nickel market is limited [2]. - **Key Indicators**: The basis is 1,460 yuan, indicating a bullish factor. LME inventory is 253,104 tons with no change, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 32,634 tons, a decrease of 55 tons. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Price Movement**: The spot stainless - steel price remained flat on November 7. The average stainless - steel price was 13,550 yuan, and the basis was 985 yuan [4][12]. - **Fundamentals**: Short - term nickel ore prices are firm, sea freight is stable, nickel - iron prices decline, and the cost line moves down further. Stainless - steel inventory has a slight increase [4]. - **Key Indicators**: The futures warehouse receipts are 72,091 tons, a decrease of 371 tons. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4]. Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: As of November 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 37,187 tons, with the futures inventory at 32,634 tons, an increase of 436 tons and 1,246 tons respectively. The total inventory was 285,738 tons, a decrease of 55 tons [14][15]. - **Stainless - Steel Inventory**: On November 7, the Wuxi inventory was 599,000 tons, the Foshan inventory was 310,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,034,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,900 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 639,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,400 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 72,091 tons, a decrease of 371 tons [19][20]. Price of Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron**: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 58 US dollars per wet ton, and that with Ni0.9% was 30 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The high - nickel wet - ton price was 916.5 yuan per nickel point, a decrease of 1.5 yuan, and the low - nickel wet - ton price was 3,200 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [23]. - **Stainless - Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost was 12,740 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 12,893 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,534 yuan [25]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The converted import price was 120,401 yuan per ton [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Nickel**: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. Downstream transactions were average, and there was no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The SHFE nickel 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, within the range of 120,000 - 123,800. Pre - holiday position control is recommended [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: Spot stainless steel prices have declined. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, freight rates are strong, and nickel - iron prices are stable, with a firm cost line. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down. The stainless steel 2511 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel 3.1.1 Fundamentals - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. Downstream transactions were average, and there was no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. Nickel ore prices are firm, and due to the typhoon, mine loading and shipping may be delayed. Nickel - iron prices are stable, but nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. The destocking of stainless steel during the "Golden September and Silver October" period has slowed down. Although new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, the loading of ternary batteries is still decreasing, with limited increase in nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2]. 3.1.2 Basis - The spot price is 122,450, and the basis is 1,070, indicating a bullish signal [3]. 3.1.3 Inventory - LME inventory is 230,124, a decrease of 462. SHFE warehouse receipts are 25,153, an increase of 48, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.1.4 Market Chart - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.1.5 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.1.6 Price Overview - On September 26, the SHFE nickel main contract was 121,380, a decrease of 1,610 from the previous day; the LME nickel was 15,155, a decrease of 85. The SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,450, a decrease of 1,600 [13]. 3.1.7 Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 26, the SHFE nickel inventory was 29,008 tons, with the futures inventory at 25,153 tons, a decrease of 826 tons and 690 tons respectively. The total inventory was 255,277 tons, a decrease of 414 tons [15][16]. 3.1.8 Import Cost - The import price is converted to 122,235 yuan/ton [28]. 3.2 Stainless Steel 3.2.1 Fundamentals - Spot stainless steel prices have declined. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, freight rates are strong, and nickel - iron prices are stable, with a firm cost line. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down [5]. 3.2.2 Basis - The average stainless steel price is 13,962.5, and the basis is 1,122.5, indicating a bullish signal [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The futures warehouse receipts are 87,505, a decrease of 298, showing a neutral signal. On September 26, the Wuxi inventory was 588,200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 281,400 tons, and the national inventory was 984,500 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons month - on - month. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 623,300 tons, an increase of 5,400 tons month - on - month [5][20][21]. 3.2.4 Market Chart - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a neutral signal [5]. 3.2.5 Price Overview - On September 26, the stainless steel main contract was 12,840, a decrease of 90 from the previous day. The cold - rolled coil 304*2B in Wuxi was 13,950, unchanged from the previous day [13]. 3.3 Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On September 26, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day [23]. 3.4 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost is 13,166, the scrap steel production cost is 13,512, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost is 16,867 [25]. 3.5 Multi - and Short - Term Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and the cost line support at 120,000 [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic output continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The loading volume of ternary batteries is decreasing year - on - year [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel 2508 contract is expected to move in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the support level of the 20 - day moving average. The medium - to - long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but the good production and sales data of new energy vehicles are beneficial to the demand for nickel [2]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel 2508 contract is expected to move in a volatile manner. The short - term nickel ore price is firm, but the nickel iron price is weakening, and the expectation of production reduction is increasing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 沪镍 - **Fundamentals**: The external market fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average. The ore price remains firm, but the nickel iron price continues to decline, and the market sentiment of bearish ore price is rising. The stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continue to flow out, and the inventory decreases slightly. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, which is beneficial to the demand for nickel. The medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. The view is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 122,250, and the basis is 1,420, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory is 204,006 (- 288), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 21,221 (- 36), which is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. 不锈钢 - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless steel price remains flat. The short - term nickel ore price is firm, but the nickel iron price is weakening, and the expectation of production reduction is increasing, which is more likely to force the ore price down. The stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continue to flow into the spot market, and the inventory decreases slightly. The view is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The average stainless steel price is 13,425, and the basis is 815, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 112,140 (- 187), which is bearish [3]. - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is neutral [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production and sales data of new energy vehicles continue to perform well, with a year - on - year increase in May [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. The stainless steel warehouse receipts are flowing into the spot market one after another, increasing the supply pressure. The contradiction between ore and nickel iron is intensifying, and the expectation of nickel iron production reduction is increasing, which is more likely to force the ore price down [5]. 3.3 Price Overview - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel main contract price on June 30 was 120,830, up 350 from June 27. The LME nickel price was 15,125, down 65 from June 27. The spot prices of different types of nickel showed different trends, with the nickel bean price rising by 2,100 [10]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel main contract price on June 30 was 12,610, down 10 from June 27. The spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions remained unchanged [10]. 3.4 Warehouse Receipts and Inventory 镍 - As of June 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 24,718 tons, with the futures inventory at 21,257 tons, a decrease of 586 tons and 412 tons respectively. On June 30, the LME nickel inventory was 204,006 (- 288), and the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,221 (- 36) [12][13]. 不锈钢 - On June 27, the Wuxi inventory was 62,800 tons, the Foshan inventory was 341,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,154,400 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons month - on - month. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 685,000 tons, a decrease of 7,100 tons month - on - month. On June 30, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 112,140 (- 187) [17][18]. 3.5 Ore and Iron Prices - The prices of red clay nickel ore CIF with different grades remained unchanged on June 30 compared with June 27. The high - nickel wet - ton price was 912.5, down 0.5 from June 27, and the low - nickel wet - ton price remained unchanged [22]. 3.6 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel is 12,680, the scrap steel production cost is 13,147, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,634 [24]. 3.7 Nickel Import Cost - The converted import price is 122,623 yuan/ton [27].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]