1、基本面：上周镍价震荡偏弱运行，下游成交一般，未见明显节前补库需求提升。产业链上，镍矿价 格坚挺，受台风影响，矿山装船出船或有延迟。镍铁价格维稳，成本线坚挺，镍铁企业仍然亏损。不锈 钢金九银十去库存放缓。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈现下降，对镍需求提升有限。 中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 6、结论：沪镍2511：围绕20均线上下波动，区间120000-123800震荡运行。节前控制仓位。 2、基差：现货122450，基差1070，偏多 3、库存：LME库存230124，-462，上交所仓单25153，+48，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel 2508 contract is expected to move in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the support level of the 20 - day moving average. The medium - to - long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but the good production and sales data of new energy vehicles are beneficial to the demand for nickel [2]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel 2508 contract is expected to move in a volatile manner. The short - term nickel ore price is firm, but the nickel iron price is weakening, and the expectation of production reduction is increasing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 沪镍 - **Fundamentals**: The external market fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average. The ore price remains firm, but the nickel iron price continues to decline, and the market sentiment of bearish ore price is rising. The stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continue to flow out, and the inventory decreases slightly. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, which is beneficial to the demand for nickel. The medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. The view is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 122,250, and the basis is 1,420, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory is 204,006 (- 288), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 21,221 (- 36), which is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. 不锈钢 - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless steel price remains flat. The short - term nickel ore price is firm, but the nickel iron price is weakening, and the expectation of production reduction is increasing, which is more likely to force the ore price down. The stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continue to flow into the spot market, and the inventory decreases slightly. The view is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The average stainless steel price is 13,425, and the basis is 815, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 112,140 (- 187), which is bearish [3]. - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is neutral [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production and sales data of new energy vehicles continue to perform well, with a year - on - year increase in May [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. The stainless steel warehouse receipts are flowing into the spot market one after another, increasing the supply pressure. The contradiction between ore and nickel iron is intensifying, and the expectation of nickel iron production reduction is increasing, which is more likely to force the ore price down [5]. 3.3 Price Overview - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel main contract price on June 30 was 120,830, up 350 from June 27. The LME nickel price was 15,125, down 65 from June 27. The spot prices of different types of nickel showed different trends, with the nickel bean price rising by 2,100 [10]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel main contract price on June 30 was 12,610, down 10 from June 27. The spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions remained unchanged [10]. 3.4 Warehouse Receipts and Inventory 镍 - As of June 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 24,718 tons, with the futures inventory at 21,257 tons, a decrease of 586 tons and 412 tons respectively. On June 30, the LME nickel inventory was 204,006 (- 288), and the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,221 (- 36) [12][13]. 不锈钢 - On June 27, the Wuxi inventory was 62,800 tons, the Foshan inventory was 341,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,154,400 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons month - on - month. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 685,000 tons, a decrease of 7,100 tons month - on - month. On June 30, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 112,140 (- 187) [17][18]. 3.5 Ore and Iron Prices - The prices of red clay nickel ore CIF with different grades remained unchanged on June 30 compared with June 27. The high - nickel wet - ton price was 912.5, down 0.5 from June 27, and the low - nickel wet - ton price remained unchanged [22]. 3.6 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel is 12,680, the scrap steel production cost is 13,147, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,634 [24]. 3.7 Nickel Import Cost - The converted import price is 122,623 yuan/ton [27].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]