交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年12月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘冲高回落，在前期压箱顶部附近进行震荡，印尼配额变化可能会影响原料供应是主要 因素。近期部分产能减产，供应压力减轻。产业链上，镍矿价格稳定，海运费持平，矿库存高位，中长 期预期供应宽松。镍铁价格弱稳，成本线有一定支撑。不锈钢库存回落，交易所仓单回落，对价格底部 有一定支撑。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。 偏空 2、基差：现货125250，基差1810，偏多 3、库存：LME库存254604，+216，上交所仓单38621，-301，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views For Shanghai Nickel - Last week, nickel prices rebounded, with manufacturers showing some reluctance to sell and traders remaining cautious in purchasing. Some production capacities have reduced recently, leading to a shortage of certain supplies. The price of nickel ore is firm, and ocean freight rates remain unchanged. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply outlook. The price of nickel iron shows signs of stabilizing, with most remaining stable and a small portion still declining. The cost line remains stable. Stainless steel inventory has increased, and demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventory remains at a high level, and the oversupply situation persists. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited. The basis is positive, but inventory, the market trend, and the main positions all suggest a bearish outlook. The Shanghai Nickel 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and for the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds [2]. For Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel has slightly decreased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, ocean freight rates are unchanged, and the price of nickel iron has stopped falling with most remaining stable, so the cost line remains stable. Stainless steel inventory has increased. The basis is positive, inventory is neutral, and the market trend is bearish. The Stainless Steel 2601 contract is expected to be under pressure below the 20 - day moving average and operate weakly [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Nickel Futures**: On November 28, the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 117,010, up 110 from the previous day; the LME nickel closed at 14,820, down 20. Among spot nickel, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,500, up 500; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 121,900, up 600; 1 imported nickel was 117,550, up 500; and nickel beans were 119,600, up 500 [10]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,355 on November 28, down 55 from the previous day. Among spot stainless steel, the average price of cold - rolled 304*2B in different regions showed little change, with some prices remaining stable and a small decline in Foshan [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 28, the LME nickel inventory was 254,760 tons, a decrease of 690 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 33,309 tons, a decrease of 239 tons. The total inventory was 288,069 tons, a decrease of 929 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 28, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,400 tons, in Foshan was 355,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,086,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,400 tons. The inventory of the 300 - series was 669,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 63,119 tons, a decrease of 354 tons [16][17]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - The price of laterite nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% remained at 57 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% remained at 29 US dollars per wet ton on November 28. Ocean freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 883 yuan per nickel point, down 1 yuan, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) remained at 3,200 yuan per ton [20]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,473 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 12,768 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel iron and pure nickel was 16,248 yuan [22]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 118,722 yuan per ton [25].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The nickel market is expected to be in a long - term oversupply situation, with the nickel price of contract 2512 likely to fluctuate weakly and test the cost support [2]. - The stainless - steel market of contract 2512 is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Price Movement**: Last week, the nickel price fluctuated weakly, and trading improved. On November 7, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was 120,900 yuan, up 400 yuan from the previous day [2][12]. - **Fundamentals**: Nickel ore prices are firm as the rainy season in the Philippines approaches, and sea freight is stable. Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the cost line moves down. New nickel production capacity is put into operation while some production is cut, with short - term output possibly decreasing but long - term supply remaining strong. The new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost to the nickel market is limited [2]. - **Key Indicators**: The basis is 1,460 yuan, indicating a bullish factor. LME inventory is 253,104 tons with no change, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 32,634 tons, a decrease of 55 tons. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Price Movement**: The spot stainless - steel price remained flat on November 7. The average stainless - steel price was 13,550 yuan, and the basis was 985 yuan [4][12]. - **Fundamentals**: Short - term nickel ore prices are firm, sea freight is stable, nickel - iron prices decline, and the cost line moves down further. Stainless - steel inventory has a slight increase [4]. - **Key Indicators**: The futures warehouse receipts are 72,091 tons, a decrease of 371 tons. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4]. Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: As of November 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 37,187 tons, with the futures inventory at 32,634 tons, an increase of 436 tons and 1,246 tons respectively. The total inventory was 285,738 tons, a decrease of 55 tons [14][15]. - **Stainless - Steel Inventory**: On November 7, the Wuxi inventory was 599,000 tons, the Foshan inventory was 310,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,034,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,900 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 639,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,400 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 72,091 tons, a decrease of 371 tons [19][20]. Price of Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron**: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 58 US dollars per wet ton, and that with Ni0.9% was 30 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The high - nickel wet - ton price was 916.5 yuan per nickel point, a decrease of 1.5 yuan, and the low - nickel wet - ton price was 3,200 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [23]. - **Stainless - Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost was 12,740 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 12,893 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,534 yuan [25]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The converted import price was 120,401 yuan per ton [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Nickel**: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. Downstream transactions were average, and there was no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The SHFE nickel 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, within the range of 120,000 - 123,800. Pre - holiday position control is recommended [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: Spot stainless steel prices have declined. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, freight rates are strong, and nickel - iron prices are stable, with a firm cost line. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down. The stainless steel 2511 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel 3.1.1 Fundamentals - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. Downstream transactions were average, and there was no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. Nickel ore prices are firm, and due to the typhoon, mine loading and shipping may be delayed. Nickel - iron prices are stable, but nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. The destocking of stainless steel during the "Golden September and Silver October" period has slowed down. Although new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, the loading of ternary batteries is still decreasing, with limited increase in nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2]. 3.1.2 Basis - The spot price is 122,450, and the basis is 1,070, indicating a bullish signal [3]. 3.1.3 Inventory - LME inventory is 230,124, a decrease of 462. SHFE warehouse receipts are 25,153, an increase of 48, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.1.4 Market Chart - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.1.5 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.1.6 Price Overview - On September 26, the SHFE nickel main contract was 121,380, a decrease of 1,610 from the previous day; the LME nickel was 15,155, a decrease of 85. The SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,450, a decrease of 1,600 [13]. 3.1.7 Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 26, the SHFE nickel inventory was 29,008 tons, with the futures inventory at 25,153 tons, a decrease of 826 tons and 690 tons respectively. The total inventory was 255,277 tons, a decrease of 414 tons [15][16]. 3.1.8 Import Cost - The import price is converted to 122,235 yuan/ton [28]. 3.2 Stainless Steel 3.2.1 Fundamentals - Spot stainless steel prices have declined. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, freight rates are strong, and nickel - iron prices are stable, with a firm cost line. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down [5]. 3.2.2 Basis - The average stainless steel price is 13,962.5, and the basis is 1,122.5, indicating a bullish signal [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The futures warehouse receipts are 87,505, a decrease of 298, showing a neutral signal. On September 26, the Wuxi inventory was 588,200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 281,400 tons, and the national inventory was 984,500 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons month - on - month. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 623,300 tons, an increase of 5,400 tons month - on - month [5][20][21]. 3.2.4 Market Chart - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a neutral signal [5]. 3.2.5 Price Overview - On September 26, the stainless steel main contract was 12,840, a decrease of 90 from the previous day. The cold - rolled coil 304*2B in Wuxi was 13,950, unchanged from the previous day [13]. 3.3 Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On September 26, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day [23]. 3.4 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost is 13,166, the scrap steel production cost is 13,512, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost is 16,867 [25]. 3.5 Multi - and Short - Term Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and the cost line support at 120,000 [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic output continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The loading volume of ternary batteries is decreasing year - on - year [8].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The Shanghai nickel futures market continues to fluctuate, with fundamental support still present. Nickel ore production and shipping in the Philippines are not significantly affected by rainfall, and domestic arrival inventories remain high. The new energy sector remains supportive, with tight supply and expected continued strength. Ferronickel prices are also strong, and stainless steel maintains a volatile trend. The report suggests paying attention to the impact of the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, and increased export difficulties [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the nickel and stainless - steel markets. Positive factors include the potential revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, shortening of the nickel ore quota license period, increasing September interest - rate cut expectations, and continuous de - stocking of stainless steel. Negative factors involve high pure nickel inventories, rising seasonal nickel ore inventories, Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless - steel import tariffs, and the implementation of anti - dumping duties on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates by South Korea [6] Group 3: Price and Volatility Forecasts Nickel - The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.51% and a historical percentile of 0.8% [2] Group 4: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - To hedge against potential price declines and inventory devaluation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2] Procurement Management - To lock in production costs in case of rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the procurement plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - To hedge against potential price declines and inventory devaluation, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3] Procurement Management - To lock in production costs in case of rising raw material prices, buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the procurement plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan [3] Group 5: Market Data Nickel - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 120,850 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change; Shanghai nickel continuous - first contract is 120,700 yuan/ton, down 1.18% month - on - month; Shanghai nickel continuous - second contract is 120,880 yuan/ton, down 1.12% month - on - month; Shanghai nickel continuous - third contract is 121,110 yuan/ton, down 1.12% month - on - month; LME nickel 3M is 15,105 US dollars/ton, down 1.12% month - on - month. Trading volume is 75,006 lots, down 25.20% month - on - month; open interest is 81,612 lots, up 0.96% month - on - month; warehouse receipts are 22,304 tons, down 1.31% month - on - month; the basis of the main contract is - 710 yuan/ton, down 52.0% month - on - month [7] Stainless Steel - The latest price of stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,915 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change; stainless - steel continuous - first contract is 12,860 yuan/ton, up 0.04% month - on - month; stainless - steel continuous - second contract is 12,950 yuan/ton, up 0.19% month - on - month; stainless - steel continuous - third contract is 12,955 yuan/ton, down 0.31% month - on - month. Trading volume is 115,463 lots, up 5.43% month - on - month; open interest is 123,168 lots, down 0.01% month - on - month; warehouse receipts are 98,288 tons, down 0.25% month - on - month; the basis of the main contract is 620 yuan/ton, down 13.29% month - on - month [9] Group 6: Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,930 tons, an increase of 460 tons compared to the previous period; LME nickel inventory is 221,094 tons, an increase of 3,024 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 918.7 tons, a decrease of 10.1 tons; ferronickel inventory is 29,266.5 tons, a decrease of 3,844.5 tons [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the support at the mine end is marginally loosening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity. The downside space of nickel prices depends on the support at the mine end. The news of increased quotas in Indonesia affects the mine - end expectations, and the third quarter is often the stage of quota release and premium callback. In July, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore may slightly decline. The convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore. After the mine - end logic becomes less significant, if pricing returns to the smelting - end fundamentals, the upside elasticity may be pressured by supply elasticity. In July, the stainless - steel production in China and Indonesia stabilizes, nickel - iron inventory accumulates to a historical high, and the negative feedback pressures the nickel - iron valuation, which restricts the upside elasticity of refined - nickel valuation. The inventory accumulation in the refined - nickel segment is less than expected, while the operating capacity increases marginally, and supply elasticity limits the upside space [1]. - For stainless steel, it operates with weak supply and demand, the inventory has a slight reduction, and the steel price is marginally repaired but with limited upside elasticity. The macro - expectation improves marginally, boosting the market. However, the tariff increase on household appliances containing steel parts in the US and the weak short - term off - season demand lead to negative feedback on supply. In July, the marginal supply - demand may remain weak. After the negative feedback leads to a decline in actual supply, the overall high factory inventory slightly decreases, and the social inventory marginally reduces. If the production - cut expectation is continuously verified in the inventory, the suppression of stainless - steel profit by over - supply may ease, but the overall cost center moves down, and the raw - material end of nickel - iron gives up profits, limiting the upside repair elasticity of steel prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel fundamentals**: The support at the mine end is marginally loosening, and the smelting - end logic restricts the upside elasticity. The news of increased Indonesian quotas affects mine - end expectations, and the third - quarter is a stage of quota release and premium callback. The convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore. After the mine - end logic fades, the upside elasticity may be pressured by supply elasticity. The inventory accumulation in the refined - nickel segment is less than expected, and the operating capacity increases marginally [1]. - **Stainless - steel fundamentals**: It operates with weak supply and demand, the inventory has a slight reduction, and the steel price is marginally repaired but with limited upside elasticity. The macro - expectation improves marginally, but the tariff increase in the US and weak short - term demand lead to negative feedback on supply. In July, the marginal supply - demand may remain weak. The production in China and Indonesia has different trends, and after the negative feedback on supply, the factory inventory slightly decreases, and the social inventory marginally reduces [2]. Inventory Changes - **Nickel inventory**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increases by 120 tons to 36,591 tons, with a decrease in warehouse - receipt inventory and an increase in spot inventory, and the bonded - area inventory remains unchanged. The LME nickel inventory decreases by 846 tons to 204,294 tons. The nickel - iron inventory in mid - June increases year - on - year and month - on - month, and the port nickel - ore inventory in China increases by 199,900 wet tons to 7.5923 million wet tons [3][5]. - **Stainless - steel inventory**: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreases by 0.25% week - on - week. The cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory decreases, while the hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory increases. The inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel also shows a decrease in the total and cold - rolled inventory and an increase in the hot - rolled inventory [3]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produces nickel - iron and enters the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [6]. - A nickel smelter in an important Indonesian metal - processing park resumes production, and the capacity of the Indonesian QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill suspends production for maintenance from June to July, which may affect the production of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly of the 300 - series [6]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the decision to remove the raw - ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal - system bill [7]. - Environmental violations are found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [7]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and other relevant data of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as the prices, premiums, and spreads of related products such as imported nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless - steel products, are presented in the table, showing different trends compared with previous periods [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Macro利好推动短期反弹，但基本面未实质改善，高供应与需求疲软制约价格上行空间，预计震荡承压运行为主 [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 View Summary - Macro利好推动短期反弹，但基本面未实质改善，高供应与需求疲软制约价格上行空间，预计震荡承压运行为主 [12] 3.2 Fundamental - Raw Materials Nickel Iron - In April this year, China's nickel iron production decreased slightly, while Indonesia's nickel iron production rebounded, with overall supply increasing. On May 16, the NPI price was 955 yuan per nickel, the same as last week's price [16] Scrap Stainless Steel - On May 16, the price of scrap stainless steel 304 was 9,450 yuan per ton, a 2.16% increase from last week's price [19] Chromium Iron - Chromium iron production continued to rebound. In April this year, chromium iron production was 698,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.82%. On May 16, the price of high - carbon chromium iron was 8,200 yuan per 50 - base ton, a 1.20% decrease from last week [22] 3.3 Fundamental - Supply and Demand Supply - According to Mysteel data, the stainless steel production in April was 3.5025 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%, and the planned production in May was 3.4899 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.36%. From the current production plan data, the reduction occurred in the 300 - series [28] Demand - From the data, the apparent demand for stainless steel in March rebounded significantly compared to February [28] 3.4 Fundamental - Price - This week, the spot price of stainless steel rose slightly. On May 16, the spot price was 13,370 yuan per ton, a 1.13% increase from last week [43] 3.5 Fundamental - Inventory - As of May 16, 2025, Mysteel data showed that the stainless steel social inventory (78 samples) was about 1.0584 million tons, of which the 300 - series inventory was about 683,200 tons [36]