1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will rebound and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 119,000 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 117,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 770 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [2] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 14,820 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 122,891 lots, a decrease of 4,444 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai nickel is - 33,268 lots, a decrease of 6,343 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 254,760 tons, a decrease of 690 tons [2] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 40,782 tons, an increase of 987 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 10,254 tons, a decrease of 1,146 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 32,722 tons, a decrease of 587 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 119,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 119,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 520 yuan/ton [2] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 196.77 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.29 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 tons, a decrease of 143.17 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,487.33 tons, a decrease of 12.43 tons [2] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total nickel - iron output is 22,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons [2] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 597,600 tons, an increase of 12,300 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in November rebounded to 49.2, the PMI of high - tech manufacturing has been above the critical point of 50 for 10 consecutive months, and the non - manufacturing PMI declined slightly due to the high base effect [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde said that interest rates are at a reasonable level, indicating satisfaction with the recent situation [2] - Germany's CPI in November was 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the preliminary value of the harmonized CPI year - on - year unexpectedly rose to 2.6%, reaching a nine - month high [2] 3.7 Technical and Market Conditions - In terms of technology, positions are stable, prices are adjusting, and differences between bulls and bears are increasing [2] - Domestically, nickel inventory continues to grow, the market mainly purchases as needed, and spot premiums rise; overseas, LME inventory also shows an increase [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: With an expected interest rate cut, it is expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, but in the short - term, there are factors such as high - level shock in the external market, a firm nickel ore price due to Indonesia's sudden mine inspection, a steady increase in ferronickel price, and a decline in stainless steel inventory. [2] - **不锈钢**: It is expected to operate in a wide - range fluctuation. The short - term situation is neutral to positive, with a firm nickel ore price, a steady increase in ferronickel price, and a continuous decline in stainless steel inventory. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On September 16, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 122,610 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of LME nickel was 15,445 yuan, up 20 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,970 yuan, down 100 yuan. [11] - **Spot Prices**: On September 16, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,600 yuan, up 600 yuan; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,700 yuan, up 550 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 122,800 yuan, up 650 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 124,950 yuan, up 650 yuan. The prices of cold - rolled coils in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged. [11] 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **As of September 12**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, of which the futures inventory was 23,529 tons, an increase of 514 tons and 1,815 tons respectively. [13] - **On September 16**: LME nickel inventory was 226,434 tons, an increase of 1,950 tons; Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,167 tons, an increase of 1,208 tons; the total inventory was 252,601 tons, an increase of 3,158 tons. [14] 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **As of September 12**: The inventory in Wuxi was 583,700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 297,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,012,500 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 623,700 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons. [18] - **On September 16**: The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 95,745 tons, a decrease of 604 tons compared with the previous day. [19] 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - **Nickel Ore Prices**: On September 16, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with a Ni content of 1.5% was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with a Ni content of 0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. [22] - **Ferronickel Prices**: The price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 954 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3,470 yuan per ton, both unchanged from the previous day. [22] 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 13,160 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,565 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,907 yuan. [24] 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price was 124,377 yuan per ton. [26] 3.7 Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - **Positive Factors**: The demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and a cost support line at 120,000 yuan. [6] - **Negative Factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term oversupply situation, and a year - on - year decline in the loading volume of ternary batteries. [6]