1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel (2509), it is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The long - term supply - demand situation shows an oversupply pattern, but short - term factors such as cost increases and potential consumption growth during the "Golden September and Silver October" need to be considered [2]. - For Stainless Steel (2510), it is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The short - term cost is rising slightly, and the inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Nickel Futures**: On August 15, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,600 yuan, down 600 yuan from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 15,195 yuan, up 145 yuan. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,500 yuan, down 1,850 yuan [12]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: On August 15, the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi) was 13,750 yuan, down 50 yuan [12]. 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 15, the LME nickel inventory was 211,662 tons, an increase of 522 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel warehouse receipts were 22,141 tons, an increase of 1,421 tons. The total inventory was 233,803 tons, an increase of 1,943 tons [15]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 15, the inventory in Wuxi was 61.01 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 314,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1,078,900 tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 644,500 tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons [19]. - The stainless - steel warehouse receipts on the futures market were 103,277 tons, a decrease of 244 tons [20]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On August 15, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of high - nickel ferronickel was 925.5 yuan per nickel point, up 1 yuan [23]. 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,901 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,587 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,384 yuan [25]. 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 122,636 yuan per ton [29]. 3.7 Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - **Positive Factors**: The expected consumption growth during the "Golden September and Silver October", the anti - involution policy, the firm price of nickel ore, and the slight rebound of downstream ferronickel prices, which led to a slight upward shift in the cost line [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, the lack of new demand growth points, the long - term oversupply pattern, and the year - on - year decline in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [7].

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on Shanghai nickel and stainless steel dated August 15, 2025, provided by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Shanghai Nickel 2509 is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [3] - Stainless Steel 2510 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [5] Summary by Directory Shanghai Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The external market has fallen significantly, with prices below the 20 - day moving average. There was a shipment of Norwegian nickel slabs last week, increasing supply. The ore price is stable, and the ferronickel price has a slight increase. The cost line has stabilized and rebounded slightly. Stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations has declined. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Overall, it is bearish [4] - **Basis**: The spot price is 123,350, and the basis is 2,150, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 211,140 (+42), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 20,720 (+142), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is neutral [4] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price is stable, ocean freight has decreased slightly, and the ferronickel price has a slight increase. The cost line has risen slightly, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased. Overall, it is neutral [5] - **Basis**: The average stainless - steel price is 13,850, and the basis is 825, which is bullish [5] - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 103,521 (+3), which is bearish [5] - **Market**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5] Multi - and Short - term Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period and anti - involution policies [8] - **Bearish Factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, with no new demand growth points. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Nickel ore and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line is still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries has increased [8] Price Overview - **Nickel**: On August 14, the Shanghai nickel main contract was at 121,200 (-1,140 compared to August 13), and the LME nickel was at 15,050 (-190). The spot prices of SMM1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel, and nickel beans all decreased [13] - **Stainless Steel**: On August 14, the stainless - steel main contract was at 13,025 (-105 compared to August 13), and the spot prices of cold - rolled coils in different regions remained unchanged [13] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons, with futures inventory at 20,621 tons. On August 14, LME inventory was 211,140 (+42), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,720 (+142) [15][16] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 8, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,620 tons, in Foshan was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 49,000 tons month - on - month. The 300 - series inventory was 657,600 tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons month - on - month. On August 14, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 103,521 (+3) [19][20] Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - Red soil nickel ore CIF prices (Ni1.5% at 57 dollars/wet ton and Ni0.9% at 29 dollars/wet ton) remained unchanged on August 14 compared to August 13. Ocean freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged. The high - nickel ferronickel price increased by 1.5 yuan/nickel point, and the low - nickel ferronickel price remained unchanged [23] Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,931, the scrap - steel production cost is 13,649, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,534 [25] Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price is 121,457/ton [28]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation shows a complex mix of factors, with a medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remaining unchanged [3][4]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory **沪镍 Daily View** - **基本面**: The external market first declined and then rebounded, with support at the 20 - day moving average. Last week, there was an arrival of Norwegian nickel slabs, increasing supply. The nickel ore price is stable, the ferronickel price is rising steadily, and the cost line has stabilized and rebounded slightly. The stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly. The new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations has decreased. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, which is bearish [4]. - **基差**: The spot price is 123,500, and the basis is 1,060, which is bullish [4]. - **库存**: The LME inventory is 211,746 (an increase of 450), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts are 20,693 (a decrease of 30), which is bearish [4]. - **盘面**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **主力持仓**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. **不锈钢 Daily View** - **基本面**: The spot stainless steel price has increased. In the short term, the nickel ore price is stable, the ocean freight has decreased slightly, the ferronickel price is rising steadily, the cost line has increased slightly, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased. The situation is neutral [5]. - **基差**: The average stainless steel price is 13,887.5, and the basis is 687.5, which is bullish [5]. - **库存**: The futures warehouse receipts are 103,940 (an increase of 904), which is bearish [5]. - **盘面**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5]. - **结论**: The stainless steel 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [5]. **多空因素 - 影响因素总结** - **利多因素**: There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period and anti - involution policies [8]. - **利空因素**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new growth points in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The nickel ore price is weakly stable, the ferronickel price is weakly stable, and the cost line is still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries is increasing [8]. **镍、不锈钢价格基本概览** - **期货 prices**: On August 12, the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,440 (an increase of 310 compared to August 11), the LME nickel was 15,360 (an increase of 35), and the stainless steel main contract was 13,200 (a decrease of 25). - **现货 prices**: The SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,500 (an increase of 650), and the average price of stainless steel was 13,887.5 [13][5]. **镍仓单、库存** - **镍库存**: As of August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons, with the futures inventory at 20,621 tons. On August 12, the LME inventory was 211,746 (an increase of 450), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,693 (a decrease of 30) [15][16]. **不锈钢仓单、库存** - **不锈钢库存**: On August 8, the Wuxi inventory was 61,620 tons, the Foshan inventory was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons month - on - month. On August 12, the stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 103,940 (an increase of 904) [19][20]. **镍矿、镍铁价格** - **镍矿价格**: The CIF price of laterite nickel ore with Ni1.5% is 57 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% is 29 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged from August 11. - **镍铁价格**: The high - nickel ferronickel price is 921.5 yuan per nickel point (an increase of 2.5), and the low - nickel ferronickel price is 3,420 yuan per ton (an increase of 20) [23]. **不锈钢生产成本** - The traditional cost is 12,919, the scrap steel production cost is 13,699, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,510 [25]. **镍进口成本测算** The imported price is converted to 124,122 yuan per ton [28].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: Last week, nickel prices trended weakly. The short - term impact of the macro - anti - involution has been digested, and spot trading did not improve with price drops. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. The ore price and ferronickel price are weakly stable, with some ferronickel quotes rising, but the cost line remains low. Stainless steel is in the traditional consumption off - season in July and August, and the inventory of the 300 series increased slightly this week. Although new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, the loading volume of ternary batteries is decreasing, and nickel demand in the new energy sector is declining. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The 2509 contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price is weakly stable, ocean freight is firm, and the ferronickel price is weakly stable with some slight increases. The cost line is still low, and stainless steel consumption has entered the off - season. The 2509 contract of stainless steel is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Price Information** - **镍**: On August 1st, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,650 yuan, down 600 yuan from July 31st; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 121,850 yuan, down 550 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 119,950 yuan, down 550 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 119,150 yuan, down 600 yuan. The Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,770 yuan, down 60 yuan from July 31st, and the LME nickel price was 15,020 US dollars, up 70 US dollars [12]. - **不锈钢**: On August 1st, the price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,840 yuan, up 35 yuan from July 31st. The cold - rolled coil prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [12]. **Inventory Information** - **镍**: As of August 1st, the LME nickel inventory was 209,082 tons, an increase of 390 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 21,374 tons, a decrease of 331 tons; the total inventory was 230,456 tons, an increase of 59 tons [15]. - **不锈钢**: On August 1st, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,950 tons, in Foshan was 324,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,111,200 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series was 676,700 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 102,986 tons, a decrease of 248 tons [19][20]. **Cost Information** - **镍**: The price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58 US dollars per wet ton, and for Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from July 31st. The ocean freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11.5 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 12.5 US dollars per ton, also unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 912.5 yuan per nickel point, unchanged, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,300 yuan per ton, an increase of 100 yuan [23]. - **不锈钢**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,796 yuan, the cost of scrap steel production was 13,471 yuan, and the cost of low - nickel + pure nickel production was 16,302 yuan [25]. - **镍 import cost**: The converted import price was 121,513 yuan per ton [28]. **Multi - and Short - Factors** - **Likely to be bullish**: New energy vehicle data continued to perform well, with production and sales increasing year - on - year in June, and there are anti - involution policies [7]. - **Likely to be bearish**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The nickel ore and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line remains low [7].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65% to close at 3605.73 points, with a daily high of 3608.73 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.21% to close at 11193.06 points, reaching a high of 11193.06 points [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 1.5%, closing at 2345.37 points, with a peak of 2345.37 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was 0.98%, with the highest return from the Penghua CSI 1000 Enhanced Strategy ETF at 2.19% [2] - The highest performing industry index ETF was the China Tai Chi ChiNext Pharmaceutical and Health ETF, yielding 3.85% [2] - The highest return among thematic index ETFs was the GF CSI Rare Metals Theme ETF at 7.49% [2] ETF Gains and Losses - The top three ETFs by gain were: - GF CSI Rare Metals Theme ETF (7.49%) - Huafu CSI Rare Metals Theme ETF (7.32%) - ICBC Credit Suisse CSI Rare Metals Theme ETF (6.87%) [4] - The top three ETFs by loss were: - Bosera CSI Sustainable Development 100 ETF (-1.85%) - Hua Bao CSI Bank ETF (-1.49%) - Fortune CSI 800 Bank ETF (-1.48%) [4] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by inflow were: - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (inflow of 1.274 billion) - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (inflow of 1.198 billion) - Southern CSI 500 ETF (inflow of 551 million) [6] - The top three ETFs by outflow were: - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (outflow of 350 million) - Invesco Great Wall CSI 500 ETF (outflow of 286 million) - Guotai CSI All-Index Construction Materials ETF (outflow of 237 million) [6] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs by margin buying were: - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (8.08 billion) - Guotai CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF (361 million) - E Fund ChiNext ETF (330 million) [8] - The top three ETFs by margin selling were: - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (28.25 million) - Southern CSI 500 ETF (16.49 million) - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF (11.31 million) [8] Institutional Insights - Guoxin Securities noted that the rise in rare metals ETFs reflects market demand for long-term allocation in new energy metals, with a caution on short-term pullback risks [9] - China Galaxy Securities anticipates a significant rebound in the aluminum and lithium sectors due to policy reforms expected by Q3 2025, which may lead to increased institutional investment [10][11]