证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 02 月 27 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数涨跌不一。截止收盘，沪指上涨 0.39%，收 报 4162.88 点；深证成指跌 0.06%，收报 14495.09 点；创业板指跌 1.04%， 收报 3310.3 点；科创 50 指数涨 0.15%，收报 1488.02 点。总体上，全天个股 涨多跌少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 3267 只个股上涨，2066 只个股下跌，146 只个股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 24880 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 504 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，钢铁、煤炭、有色金属、公用 事业、农林牧渔等行业领涨，涨幅分别为 3.37%、3.20%、3.10%、2.27%、2.06%， 建筑材料、通信、电子、汽车、家用电器等行业领跌，跌幅分别为 1.45%、1.38%、 0.71%、0.41%、0.39%。 概念板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前的概念板块为稀有金属精选、稀土、培育 钻石、小金 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.09% closing at 4132.61 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.85% at 14316.64 points, the ChiNext Index down by 0.91% at 3319.15 points, and the STAR 50 Index down by 1.35% at 1532.8 points [1] - Overall, there were 1602 stocks that rose and 3767 stocks that fell, with a total trading volume of 32,482 billion yuan, an increase of 1630 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains with increases of 4.57%, 3.18%, 2.07%, 0.85%, and 0.79% respectively [1] - Conversely, industries such as defense and military, automotive, social services, electronics, and real estate experienced declines, with decreases of 4.47%, 2.31%, 2.30%, 2.24%, and 2.23% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors included gold and jewelry, vaccines, selected rare metals, animal health, blood products, industrial metals, nickel ore, rare earths, influenza, cobalt ore, small metals, and biotechnology [2] - Sectors such as satellite internet, commercial aerospace, satellite navigation, and military information technology experienced pullbacks [2]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.37% closing at 3909.52 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.39% at 13277.36 points. The ChiNext Index, however, increased by 0.61% to close at 3209.60 points. Overall, there were 1305 stocks that rose while 4057 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 19040 billion yuan, a decrease of 1327 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][10]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the sectors that performed well included comprehensive, communication, and electronics, with increases of 3.45%, 2.23%, and 0.78% respectively. Conversely, industries such as non-ferrous metals, steel, real estate, and coal experienced declines, with decreases of 3.03%, 2.47%, 2.10%, and 1.62% respectively [1][10]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that saw the highest gains today included copper-clad laminates, optical modules (CPO), cultivated diamonds, circuit boards, high transfer, superhard materials, dairy industry, NVIDIA supply chain, high-speed copper connections, silicon energy sources, initial public offerings, consumer electronics OEM, ice and snow tourism, lithography machines, and Moore Threads [2].

Group 1 - The core focus of the company is on new markets, specifically in nickel mining, hydrogen energy, pharmaceuticals, and marine engineering [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: With an expected interest rate cut, it is expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, but in the short - term, there are factors such as high - level shock in the external market, a firm nickel ore price due to Indonesia's sudden mine inspection, a steady increase in ferronickel price, and a decline in stainless steel inventory. [2] - **不锈钢**: It is expected to operate in a wide - range fluctuation. The short - term situation is neutral to positive, with a firm nickel ore price, a steady increase in ferronickel price, and a continuous decline in stainless steel inventory. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On September 16, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 122,610 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of LME nickel was 15,445 yuan, up 20 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,970 yuan, down 100 yuan. [11] - **Spot Prices**: On September 16, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,600 yuan, up 600 yuan; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,700 yuan, up 550 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 122,800 yuan, up 650 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 124,950 yuan, up 650 yuan. The prices of cold - rolled coils in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged. [11] 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **As of September 12**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, of which the futures inventory was 23,529 tons, an increase of 514 tons and 1,815 tons respectively. [13] - **On September 16**: LME nickel inventory was 226,434 tons, an increase of 1,950 tons; Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,167 tons, an increase of 1,208 tons; the total inventory was 252,601 tons, an increase of 3,158 tons. [14] 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **As of September 12**: The inventory in Wuxi was 583,700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 297,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,012,500 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 623,700 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons. [18] - **On September 16**: The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 95,745 tons, a decrease of 604 tons compared with the previous day. [19] 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - **Nickel Ore Prices**: On September 16, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with a Ni content of 1.5% was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with a Ni content of 0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. [22] - **Ferronickel Prices**: The price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 954 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3,470 yuan per ton, both unchanged from the previous day. [22] 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 13,160 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,565 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,907 yuan. [24] 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price was 124,377 yuan per ton. [26] 3.7 Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - **Positive Factors**: The demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and a cost support line at 120,000 yuan. [6] - **Negative Factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term oversupply situation, and a year - on - year decline in the loading volume of ternary batteries. [6]