Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing a paradigm shift from performance-driven growth to valuation-driven growth, influenced by supply constraints and stable coal prices [10][16]. - The long-term contracts in the coal sector are enhancing the stability of earnings, providing a buffer against market volatility [24][28]. - The report highlights that despite recent price declines, the coal sector's defensive attributes may offer unique advantages in uncertain market conditions [60][66]. Summary by Sections 1. What to Invest in the Coal Industry? - The focus is on long-term contracts and stable coal prices as key investment areas [8]. 2. Why Shift from Performance to Valuation? - Supply elasticity is decreasing, leading to enhanced stability in return on equity (ROE) [18][21]. - The increase in capital expenditures since 2021 has been significant, with new coal mine approvals becoming more complex and costly [19][20]. - The long-term contract mechanism is crucial for stabilizing earnings expectations in the coal sector [24][27]. 3. Why Has the Coal Sector Seen Significant Corrections Since H2 2024? - The fundamental issue stems from strong supply and weak demand, leading to a surplus in coal supply [39][41]. - The decline in electricity prices has pressured profit margins across the coal-electricity supply chain [39][41]. 4. Can the Sector Still Rise Despite Weak Demand? - Concerns about demand are driven by a slowdown in electricity consumption growth and the increasing substitution of coal by renewable energy sources [48][53]. - The report suggests that even with demand concerns, coal's defensive characteristics may still provide stability in performance [60][66]. 5. Long-term Outlook for Thermal Coal - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in coal supply-demand dynamics by late May 2025, with potential support for coal prices [66][67].

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is experiencing significant pressure in Q1 2025 due to a sharp decline in spot prices, impacting profitability across most companies [3][4][10] - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port fell to 722 RMB, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 20% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of about 12% [3][4] - Coking coal prices at Jintang Port averaged 1,443 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 40% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of approximately 15% [3][4] Key Points - The decline in coal prices was unexpected, with long-term contract prices remaining relatively stable, showing only a 2.6% year-on-year decrease [4][5] - New Hope Energy outperformed due to increased calorific value, power generation growth, and electricity price compensation, while leading coking coal companies like Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingmei faced negative impacts from falling spot prices [4][6] - National raw coal monthly average production increased by 4% year-on-year but decreased by 10% quarter-on-quarter, with Shanxi showing significant growth while production in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia declined [4][7] Company Performance - Major companies like Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and China Coal are expected to see a year-on-year decline in Q1 performance, but overall stability is anticipated [4][8] - Yanzhou Coal is projected to have a growth potential for the year, benefiting from internal growth, increased production in the Shaanxi region, and new mines coming online [4][9] - New Hope Energy is expected to report Q1 earnings of 5.5 to 6.5 billion RMB, maintaining stable performance despite the challenging environment [11] Market Outlook - In the short term, coal prices may bottom out in Q2, but the rate of decline is expected to slow, with the market becoming more sensitive to positive news [4][12] - The coal sector may achieve excess returns due to marginal improvements in supply and demand, risk release from Q1 reports, and upcoming stock registration dates [4][12] - Long-term investment in the coal sector remains attractive, with stable dividend yields from leading companies and a focus on growth potential in companies like Electric Power Investment and New Hope Energy [13] Coking Coal Sector - The coking coal sector shows signs of short-term improvement, with potential for price rebounds due to faster recovery in iron and steel production [14] - Recommendations include prioritizing Huabei Mining for its better safety margins and lower valuations, while Pingmei is suggested for its dividend potential and cost reduction efforts in 2025 [14]

点击注册小程序 报告摘要 查看完整报告 长协支撑较强，煤价止跌企稳 特别申明： 根据我们前两周的周报，短期低卡煤现货价格跌破长协价格后，煤炭工业协会、煤炭运销协会发布倡议 书，推动煤炭产量控制，我们认为体现出协会对于保障长协机制继续运行的态度。本周，在价格惯性下行 后，3月7日港口动力煤价格迎来了今年2月以来的首次上涨，体现出长协指导价对市场价格的有力支撑。 虽然当前港口库存的压力仍较大，但我们认为在长协机制的运行下，现货煤价后续下跌空间较为有限。 本周坑口煤价止跌企稳，欧洲天然气期货价格回落 （1）本周（3.3-3.9）秦皇岛港口动力煤平仓价（5500大卡周度平均值）为686元/吨，环比-19元/吨 （-2.70%）；（2）陕西榆林动力混煤坑口价格（5800大卡）周度平均值为528元/吨，环比-1元/吨 （-0.19%）；（3）澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港动力煤FOB价格（5500大卡周度平均值）为76美元/吨，环 比-1.38%；（4）欧洲天然气期货结算价（DUTCH TTF）为42欧元/兆瓦时，环比-6.14%；（5）布伦特原 油期货结算价为70.36美元/桶，环比-3.85%。 铁水日均产量环比回升，三峡出库流 ...