我省气象部门立足职能、主动靠前，从监测预警、机制联动、服务保障等多维度发力，坚持早发 现、早预警、早响应、广覆盖，全面筑牢防汛安全防线。 自8月15日以来，我省已遭遇4轮强降雨，全省平均降水量115.2毫米，较常年同期偏多1.2倍。根据 省气象局最新预报，27日夜间至28日前半夜，我省南部地区还有大雨到暴雨，局部大暴雨，并伴有强对 流天气。 广覆盖，织牢防汛安全网。面向农业生产，联合省农业农村厅向3.2万户新型农业经营主体、1.9万 名农机手推送气象信息；面向公众，通过"辽宁天气"抖音、快手等新媒体和电视滚动插播、应急广播等 渠道，发布避险指南，提升群众自救互救能力。 当前防汛形势严峻，我省气象部门将持续以"时时放心不下"的责任感，全力守护辽宁人民生命财产 安全，为打赢强降水防御战提供坚实气象保障。 早响应，拧紧防汛责任链。充分发挥气象预警先导作用，构建多层级应急联动体系。一方面，充分 发挥气象灾害防御部门联络员作用，同步向应急、水利、自然资源等30余个省级联络员单位推送气象信 息；另一方面，滚动发布我省境内流域山洪、河道洪水、水库超汛等灾害影响预报产品，协同自然资源 部门发布地质灾害气象风险预警，推动预警信 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation includes ongoing flood - prevention, geopolitical tensions, and hawkish signals from the Fed. Supply - demand shows high iron - water production and increased coking coal inventory. Technically, the coking coal main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The coking coal main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to market sentiment decline caused by exchange position limits [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The flood - prevention situation remains severe, and there may be typhoons by the end of August. In July, China's rebar production was 1.5182 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative production from January to July was 11.3387 million tons, also a 2.3% year - on - year decrease. Overseas, there are geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron - water production is 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons. The coking coal inventory has shifted downstream, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the exchange's second position limit in a month, market sentiment has declined, and the futures price is expected to weaken in the short term. The coking coal main contract should be treated as a fluctuating operation [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Situation - **Futures Market**: As of August 22, the contract position decreased by 3,482 lots compared to the previous period, and the coke monthly spread decreased by 25 points. The number of registered coke warrants remained unchanged, and the futures ratio of rebar to coke increased by 0.01 points [9][11][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 21, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port remained unchanged, and the ex - factory price of coking coal in Inner Mongolia Wuhai also remained unchanged. As of August 22, the coke basis increased by 43 points to - 184 yuan/ton. In July, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, it was 2.78 billion tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's coking coal production was 4.06438 million tons, a 4.91% year - on - year decrease [26][30]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Upstream**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.17%, an increase of 0.04%. The daily coke output is 523,100 tons, an increase of 200 tons. The coke inventory is 394,700 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory is 8.2394 million tons, a decrease of 54,700 tons. The available days of coking coal are 11.8 days, a decrease of 0.09 days [32][34]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills is 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 15, the total coke inventory decreased by 196,700 tons to 8.5733 million tons, a 13.28% year - on - year increase. The port coke inventory decreased, and the steel mill coke inventory also decreased [36][38][42]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a 15.58% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a 21.9% year - on - year decrease. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, an 11.4% year - on - year increase. In July 2025, the housing price index of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of August 17, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.2773 million square meters, a 1.32% month - on - month decrease and a 12.33% year - on - year decrease. The commercial housing transaction area of first - tier cities increased by 8.00% month - on - month, and that of second - tier cities decreased by 14.70% month - on - month [44][46][49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate. The macro - environment has led to a decline in market sentiment, and the sector is weak in the short term. The fundamentals show a mixed picture with production rising, inventory decreasing, and cost and profit factors varying. Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is bearish [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In China, the flood - control situation remains severe, and the steel industry has achieved good results due to reduced crude steel production. Overseas, geopolitical tensions exist between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes show an inflation - focused and hawkish stance [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level, raw material port inventory has decreased by 2300 tons, and downstream iron - water production is at a high level. The 8 - month steel mill procurement tender price has increased by 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Given the exchange's second position limit in a month, the market sentiment has declined, and the silicon manganese should be treated as oscillating [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 22, the silicon manganese futures contract open interest was 589,000 lots, a decrease of 2368 lots; the 1 - 9 contract spread was 90, an increase of 2 points. The manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 4703 to 70,094, and the spread between the manganese silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts increased by 24 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, the Inner Mongolia silicon manganese spot price was 5750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 82 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Production**: The production of silicon manganese has been rising since mid - May. The national capacity utilization rate is 46.37%, an increase of 0.62%, and the daily average output is 30,170 tons, an increase of 590 tons. The weekly demand of the five major steel grades for silicon manganese is 125,285 tons, a decrease of 0.08%, and the weekly supply is 211,190 tons, an increase of 1.99% [26]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The national inventory of 63 independent silicon manganese enterprises is 156,000 tons, a decrease of 2800 tons [31]. - **Upstream**: The electricity cost and manganese ore price have remained flat. The manganese ore port inventory has decreased by 23,000 tons. The northern region's spot production profit is - 170 yuan/ton, and the southern region's is - 520 yuan/ton [33][39][47]. - **Downstream**: The iron - water production is at a high level, with a daily average of 240,750 tons. The August silicon manganese steel procurement tender price has increased by 150 yuan/ton [51].

Core Insights - The water level at the Zhuanlongwan station in the Kuyang River, located in Yijinhuoluo Banner, Ordos City, reached a peak of 48.08 meters on August 19, exceeding historical maximums and triggering a red alert [1] - The flow rate at the same station peaked at 2500 cubic meters per second, also surpassing historical records [1] - As of August 21, the water level has decreased to 45.55 meters, and the flow rate is currently at 68.2 cubic meters per second, below the warning level [1] Monitoring and Response - The hydrological department is continuously monitoring the situation and ensuring flood prevention measures are in place [1] - The strong rainfall and upstream water inflow have significantly impacted the water levels and flow rates in the region [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the characteristics and challenges of flood management during the critical flood prevention period in China, particularly focusing on the extreme rainfall and flooding events that have occurred this year [1] Group 1: Flood Characteristics - This year's flood events are characterized by extreme intensity and high disaster potential, with significant changes observed compared to previous years [1] - The number of rivers exceeding warning levels is significantly lower this year, with 330 rivers reported compared to 561 last year, indicating a decrease in overall flood frequency [6] - However, the number of rivers experiencing historical flood levels remains the same as last year, with 22 rivers reported, primarily affecting small and medium-sized rivers [6][9] Group 2: Rainfall Patterns - Rainfall this year has shown a strong localized characteristic, leading to fewer numbered floods overall, but an increase in flooding in smaller rivers [3] - During the critical flood prevention period, rainfall in the Northwest and North China regions exceeded normal levels by over 50%, with some areas experiencing up to double the usual rainfall [12] Group 3: Disaster Impact - Despite the lower overall flood frequency, the impact of disasters has been significant in certain areas, with heavy damage reported in places like Beijing and Hebei [13] - The rapid rise and fall of water levels in small and medium rivers pose a high disaster risk, exemplified by a 10.4-meter rise in the North Luo River in just 11 hours [9] Group 4: Preparedness and Response - Recommendations for future flood management include enhancing flood control infrastructure, revising emergency plans to account for extreme rainfall, and preparing rapid response teams and resources [13][14] - Emphasis is placed on the need for a proactive approach to disaster management, including thorough inspections of vulnerable areas and critical infrastructure [17] Group 5: Future Strategies - Future strategies should focus on establishing a mindset for extreme weather preparedness, improving emergency command and coordination, and ensuring timely warnings and evacuations [17][18] - The importance of maintaining communication and rescue resources, such as satellite phones and emergency supplies, is highlighted for effective disaster response [19]

Group 1 - The article highlights the ongoing severe weather conditions in certain regions, including heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and potential flooding, prompting local authorities to implement emergency measures and ensure safety during the flood season [1] - Various cities, such as Shenyang and Fushun, are actively enhancing flood prevention measures, including inspections of vulnerable areas, improving drainage systems, and ensuring timely communication of information [1][2] - The management of water resources, including the monitoring of reservoirs and flood control measures, is emphasized, with a focus on maintaining the integrity of infrastructure and timely response to weather changes [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses the proactive measures taken by cities like Yingkou and Huludao to identify and mitigate risks associated with flooding, including the use of digital tools for real-time monitoring and decision-making [4][5] - Emergency response plans are being established, detailing procedures for evacuation and resource allocation to ensure effective management during adverse weather conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current flood prevention efforts in China during the critical flood season, highlighting the challenges faced and the measures taken by the Ministry of Water Resources to manage water and drought disasters effectively [1][3]. Summary by Sections Flood Situation Overview - During the "July to August" flood prevention period, China experienced two numbered floods in major rivers, with 330 rivers exceeding warning levels, 77 rivers exceeding guaranteed levels, and 22 rivers recording the highest floods since measurement began [1]. - The overall rainfall was 115 millimeters, consistent with the historical average, but localized extreme rainfall was significant, with Hebei's Xiliao River Town recording 637 millimeters and Beijing's Miyun District recording 601 millimeters [1]. Typhoon Impact - Three typhoons made landfall during this period, which is one more than the average for the same timeframe, affecting 13 provinces [1][2]. Regional Flooding and Drought - The flood situation was particularly severe in northern regions, with 18 rivers experiencing historical flood levels, accounting for over 80% of the total historical floods nationwide [2]. - Conversely, areas like Huanghuai and Jianghuai experienced high temperatures and low rainfall, leading to drought conditions, which have since improved due to recent rainfall [2]. Technological Support in Flood Management - The Ministry of Water Resources utilized advanced forecasting technologies, issuing 1,502 flood forecasts and 2,299 flood warnings during the "July to August" period [4]. - A total of 1,388 large and medium-sized reservoirs were utilized to store 146.5 billion cubic meters of floodwater, preventing the displacement of over 1.06 million people [4]. Emergency Response and Monitoring - Water monitoring teams were deployed extensively, conducting 3,878 emergency monitoring sessions to support disaster response and decision-making [5]. - The establishment of a modern reservoir management matrix has been accelerated, with 11,000 reservoirs currently in operation [5]. Future Weather Predictions - Forecasts indicate increased rainfall in various regions, including Northeast, North China, and South China, with potential typhoon activity expected in August and September [6][7].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The provincial government is actively managing flood prevention and response measures due to recent heavy rainfall, with various departments coordinating efforts to ensure public safety and infrastructure stability [1][2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Rainfall and Emergency Response - The average rainfall across the province from 6 AM to 4 PM on August 16 was 5.7 mm, with the highest recorded in Dandong at 27 mm and Benxi at 17.4 mm [1] - A total of 6,237 people were relocated for safety across the province due to the heavy rains [1] - Five cities and 36 counties initiated flood emergency responses, with four cities and 30 counties maintaining their responses as of 5 PM on August 16 [1] Group 2: Monitoring and Safety Measures - The provincial water resources department conducted monitoring and forecasting, sending out 188 monitoring reports and issuing 73 flood disaster warnings [2] - The provincial emergency management department deployed work groups to oversee safety in mining and tailings facilities, with 81 sites temporarily halting operations [2] - The provincial meteorological bureau issued 55 warning signals and sent alerts to 134,000 people [2] Group 3: Local Government Actions - Shenyang held a special meeting to strategize flood prevention, focusing on urban drainage and the safety of vulnerable housing [3] - Dalian recorded a maximum rainfall of 113.5 mm, prompting population relocations and inspections of critical infrastructure [3] - Benxi initiated a level IV flood emergency response, closely monitoring rainfall and issuing timely warnings [4] Group 4: Infrastructure and Public Safety - In Tieling, city officials conducted inspections of key waterlogged areas and prepared for drainage operations in flood-prone zones [5] - Local transportation departments implemented detours and communicated changes to the public in response to flooding [4][5]

Group 1 - The safety assessment work for damaged houses in Beijing has commenced, focusing on the stability of the main structure, wall cracks, and foundation settlement [2] - Relevant departments will implement control management for dangerous buildings based on assessment results and develop disposal plans [2] Group 2 - Insurance claims processes have been initiated, with Beijing's financial regulatory department activating an emergency mechanism for water-damaged vehicles, including streamlined procedures [4] - As of August 3, 17:00, Beijing insurance institutions have received 5,330 claims related to the recent heavy rainfall, with estimated losses nearing 155 million yuan, and 2,100 claims have been paid [4] Group 3 - Hebei is continuing efforts to relocate and settle affected residents, with medical personnel providing services and medications at designated shelters [6] - A blue rainstorm warning has been issued in Beijing, with expectations of continued heavy rainfall from August 4 to 5, prompting enhanced monitoring and control measures [6] - A yellow warning for mountain flood disasters has been issued in Hebei, urging close attention to rainfall conditions [6]

新华社北京7月28日电（记者田晨旭）记者28日从北京市气象局了解到，受高空槽及台风外围水汽远距 离输送影响，28日夜间，北京地区有暴雨到大暴雨，北京市气象台已于7月28日12时升级发布暴雨红色 预警信号。 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 为应对此次降雨，北京排水集团即时启动防汛一级响应，按照防汛预案开展工作。响应启动后，集团防 汛指挥部成员全员到岗，加强防汛值守调度，严格按照全市防汛工作部署要求，根据防汛响应预案，全 力部署落实防汛各项工作，筑牢首都防汛安全屏障。截至28日下午4时许，集团所有水厂及泵站人员全 部在岗值守，共出动大、中、小型抢险单元252组，累计出动防汛人员3162人。 气象部门提示，本次强降雨落区与前期重叠度高，且具有极端性，山区及浅山区出现山洪、泥石流、滑 坡等灾害的风险极高，请公众远离山区、河道等危险地带，暂停涉山涉水户外活动，确保自身安全。 同时，强降雨可能导致部分低洼地区和路段出现严重积水，且降雨期间路面湿滑，能见度下降，请注意 交通安全，切勿涉水行车，同时避免在低洼地带及下凹式立交桥下停车，确保生命财产安全。此外，北 京部分地区降雨同时伴有雷电和短时大风，请不要在高大建筑物、广告牌、 ...