今天，美元指数短线阻力在97.40--97.45，短线重要阻力在97.55--97.60。今天美元指数短线支持在97.15- -97.20，短线重要支持在97.05--97.10。可以在97.45---97.05的区间上限卖出，有效破位20个点止损，目 标在区间的下限。 在此背景下，美债市场融资环境整体趋紧。通用抵押品（GC）回购利率开盘报4.17%，较前一交易日收 盘下降2个基点，显示隔夜资金利率在4.00%-4.25%区间上沿徘徊。尽管政府支持企业（GSE）资金流入 对利率构成下行压力，但由于市场多头仓位占据主导，有效吸收了多数流动性，避免了利率的快速下 滑。当前，市场关注焦点高度集中于本周即将进行的国库券（T-bill）拍卖结果以及多位美联储官员的 公开表态。这些关键事件预计将进一步强化美债市场与美元走势之间的联动关系，并为下一阶段方向选 择提供重要指引。 周三（9月24日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报97.35，涨幅0.12%，开盘价为97.23。美债收益率的初步 企稳为美元带来潜在支撑，但美元指数在短期内仍受制于前期高点阻力，呈现震荡回落态势。 ...

来源：滚动播报 凯雷集团表示，特朗普政府呼吁美联储大幅降息，加上美国短债发行增加的前景，可能会扰乱美债市场 并最终推高长期借贷成本。"债券持有人希望确信美联储的工作是保障其本金的实际价值。如果他们觉 得美联储更关注政府融资，就可能出现债券抛售和更高的期限溢价，"凯雷全球研究和投资战略主管 Jason Thomas表示。 ...

Core Insights - The report titled "2025 Digital Asset Series Research - CCB International" analyzes the differences between the real world and the virtual/digital world, emphasizing the concepts of "centralization" and "decentralization" [1] - It highlights stablecoins as a crucial bridge connecting virtual and real value, with a projected trading volume of approximately $37 trillion in 2024, surpassing Bitcoin [1] - The report discusses the implications of stablecoins on monetary supply, the U.S. Treasury market, and the dominance of the U.S. dollar, as well as the differences in digital currency strategies between China and the U.S. [1] Summary by Sections Historical and Technical Analysis - The report examines the historical, cultural, and technical aspects of digital assets, focusing on the fundamental differences between centralized and decentralized systems [1] - It identifies fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies (excluding Bitcoin) as two incentive carriers within these systems, with their value dependent on ecosystem activity, integrity, and consensus [1] Focus on Stablecoins - Stablecoins are defined as digital currencies pegged to specific assets to maintain value stability, with the top two stablecoins (USDT and USDC) accounting for 60% and 23% of the market, respectively [1] - The report categorizes stablecoins based on their collateralization methods and discusses the "impossible trinity" challenge of achieving price stability, capital efficiency, and decentralization simultaneously [1] Macroeconomic Implications - The report analyzes the macroeconomic impact of stablecoins on monetary supply and the U.S. Treasury market, as well as the implications for U.S. dollar hegemony [1] - It contrasts China's approach to digital currency (promoting the digital yuan) with the U.S. focus on dollar stablecoin tokenization [1] Hong Kong's Stablecoin Development - The report explores the reasons behind Hong Kong's development of stablecoins, including the aim to establish a digital asset hub and activate the RMB ecosystem [1] - It discusses the coexistence of stablecoins with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and outlines the differences in regulatory frameworks between Hong Kong and the U.S./Europe [1] Applications and Infrastructure - Stablecoins are examined in various applications, including retail payments, cross-border transfers, virtual asset trading, RWA, and DeFi [1] - The report introduces the stablecoin economic ecosystem in Hong Kong and the business models of key service providers, as well as the impact of stablecoins on traditional financial institutions and the necessary infrastructure for expanding specific use cases [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of downward pressure, with non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations but showing structural weaknesses, and inflation rising at a moderate pace [3][5][71] - The U.S. stock market reached new historical highs in August, while U.S. Treasury yields significantly rebounded, with 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, and 2-year Treasury yields changing by +3, -14, -35, and -27 basis points respectively [4][14] - The report forecasts that the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields may reach annual lows of 3.6% and 3.2% respectively, as the market undergoes deleveraging and the "de-dollarization" process comes to a temporary halt [3][7][110] Group 2 - The issuance of U.S. Treasuries in August totaled $2.26 trillion, down from $2.51 trillion in the previous month, with a significant increase in short-term Treasury bill (T-Bill) issuance [22][23] - The demand for U.S. Treasuries has shown signs of recovery, although overseas investor demand has weakened due to lower yields compared to European and Japanese bonds [24][25] - The report highlights that the Treasury Department is expected to maintain its current debt financing structure, focusing on short-term T-Bill issuance while keeping long-term debt issuance at lower levels [25][26] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment for the U.S. Treasury market is characterized by a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with a clear signal for a potential rate cut in September [5][71] - The report notes that the labor market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls for July recorded at 73,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, indicating a potential shift in employment dynamics [77][85] - The report emphasizes that inflationary pressures are expected to remain moderate, with the CPI and core CPI showing year-on-year increases of 2.7% and 3.1% respectively, suggesting limited upward pressure on inflation in the near term [79][82]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of stablecoins is transforming them from mere crypto assets into key financial variables with macroeconomic implications, impacting traditional financial systems, particularly in areas like money supply, credit creation, and the U.S. Treasury market [2]. Group 1: Stablecoins as Financial Ecosystem Variables - Stablecoins have evolved from being used solely in the crypto market to broader applications, showcasing advantages in cross-border payments and crypto settlements due to their 24/7 availability and low costs [4]. - Global regulatory frameworks are being established to address the rapid development of stablecoins, with the U.S. implementing the GENIUS Act to set clear licensing and reserve requirements [4]. Group 2: Financial Institutions' Participation in the Stablecoin Ecosystem - Commercial banks are actively issuing on-chain deposits to counteract the risk of deposit erosion from stablecoins while also providing reserve custody services to stablecoin issuers [5]. - Asset management companies are managing the substantial reserves of stablecoins, particularly U.S. Treasury securities, recognizing the market opportunity as stablecoin reserves reach hundreds of billions [5]. - Payment companies are leveraging their networks to create closed ecosystems by issuing their own stablecoins or integrating third-party stablecoins to reduce payment costs and enhance transaction efficiency [5]. - Exchanges are capitalizing on the infrastructure benefits by providing low-cost fiat-stablecoin exchange channels and developing stablecoin derivatives to attract institutional investors [5]. Group 3: Impact of Stablecoins on Money Supply - The key to stablecoins not expanding the total M2 money supply lies in their adherence to a 1:1 reserve ratio, which results in structural changes in existing M2 rather than net expansion [7]. - If stablecoins begin to pay interest and expand into everyday payment scenarios, they could significantly compete with traditional banks, potentially eroding bank deposits and limiting credit creation [7]. - The introduction of a fractional reserve system for stablecoins could lead to actual M2 expansion, as stablecoin issuers would gain the ability to create new money through leverage [8]. Group 4: Stablecoins as a New Cornerstone for U.S. Treasury - Stablecoins are creating substantial incremental demand for U.S. Treasury securities, particularly short-term bills, as their reserves grow to hundreds of billions [9]. - However, the inherent risks associated with stablecoins could make them a "fragile fulcrum" for the Treasury market, particularly during liquidity crises when large-scale redemptions could lead to forced sales of Treasury holdings [9]. Group 5: Lessons from the Breakdown of the Bretton Woods System - The potential decoupling risks faced by stablecoins echo the trust crisis that led to the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, particularly if regulators allow a shift to a fractional reserve model [10]. - The transition from a fully reserved system to a fractional reserve model for stablecoins could fundamentally alter their nature, transforming them from passive digital assets to active credit creators [10]. Group 6: Regulatory Landscape - The U.S. GENIUS Act establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to hold reserves in high-quality liquid assets and undergo regular audits [31]. - Hong Kong has implemented the Stablecoin Ordinance, mandating that stablecoin issuers maintain 100% backing with high-quality assets and obtain licenses from the HKMA [32]. - Singapore's MAS has introduced a regulatory framework for single-currency stablecoins, ensuring that reserves equal at least 100% of the circulating stablecoin value [33]. - The EU's MiCA regulation categorizes different types of crypto assets and imposes reserve and disclosure requirements to protect consumers and maintain financial stability [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation includes ongoing flood - prevention, geopolitical tensions, and hawkish signals from the Fed. Supply - demand shows high iron - water production and increased coking coal inventory. Technically, the coking coal main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The coking coal main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to market sentiment decline caused by exchange position limits [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The flood - prevention situation remains severe, and there may be typhoons by the end of August. In July, China's rebar production was 1.5182 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative production from January to July was 11.3387 million tons, also a 2.3% year - on - year decrease. Overseas, there are geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron - water production is 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons. The coking coal inventory has shifted downstream, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the exchange's second position limit in a month, market sentiment has declined, and the futures price is expected to weaken in the short term. The coking coal main contract should be treated as a fluctuating operation [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Situation - **Futures Market**: As of August 22, the contract position decreased by 3,482 lots compared to the previous period, and the coke monthly spread decreased by 25 points. The number of registered coke warrants remained unchanged, and the futures ratio of rebar to coke increased by 0.01 points [9][11][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 21, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port remained unchanged, and the ex - factory price of coking coal in Inner Mongolia Wuhai also remained unchanged. As of August 22, the coke basis increased by 43 points to - 184 yuan/ton. In July, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, it was 2.78 billion tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's coking coal production was 4.06438 million tons, a 4.91% year - on - year decrease [26][30]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Upstream**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.17%, an increase of 0.04%. The daily coke output is 523,100 tons, an increase of 200 tons. The coke inventory is 394,700 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory is 8.2394 million tons, a decrease of 54,700 tons. The available days of coking coal are 11.8 days, a decrease of 0.09 days [32][34]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills is 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 15, the total coke inventory decreased by 196,700 tons to 8.5733 million tons, a 13.28% year - on - year increase. The port coke inventory decreased, and the steel mill coke inventory also decreased [36][38][42]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a 15.58% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a 21.9% year - on - year decrease. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, an 11.4% year - on - year increase. In July 2025, the housing price index of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of August 17, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.2773 million square meters, a 1.32% month - on - month decrease and a 12.33% year - on - year decrease. The commercial housing transaction area of first - tier cities increased by 8.00% month - on - month, and that of second - tier cities decreased by 14.70% month - on - month [44][46][49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate. The macro - environment has led to a decline in market sentiment, and the sector is weak in the short term. The fundamentals show a mixed picture with production rising, inventory decreasing, and cost and profit factors varying. Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is bearish [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In China, the flood - control situation remains severe, and the steel industry has achieved good results due to reduced crude steel production. Overseas, geopolitical tensions exist between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes show an inflation - focused and hawkish stance [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level, raw material port inventory has decreased by 2300 tons, and downstream iron - water production is at a high level. The 8 - month steel mill procurement tender price has increased by 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Given the exchange's second position limit in a month, the market sentiment has declined, and the silicon manganese should be treated as oscillating [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 22, the silicon manganese futures contract open interest was 589,000 lots, a decrease of 2368 lots; the 1 - 9 contract spread was 90, an increase of 2 points. The manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 4703 to 70,094, and the spread between the manganese silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts increased by 24 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, the Inner Mongolia silicon manganese spot price was 5750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 82 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Production**: The production of silicon manganese has been rising since mid - May. The national capacity utilization rate is 46.37%, an increase of 0.62%, and the daily average output is 30,170 tons, an increase of 590 tons. The weekly demand of the five major steel grades for silicon manganese is 125,285 tons, a decrease of 0.08%, and the weekly supply is 211,190 tons, an increase of 1.99% [26]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The national inventory of 63 independent silicon manganese enterprises is 156,000 tons, a decrease of 2800 tons [31]. - **Upstream**: The electricity cost and manganese ore price have remained flat. The manganese ore port inventory has decreased by 23,000 tons. The northern region's spot production profit is - 170 yuan/ton, and the southern region's is - 520 yuan/ton [33][39][47]. - **Downstream**: The iron - water production is at a high level, with a daily average of 240,750 tons. The August silicon manganese steel procurement tender price has increased by 150 yuan/ton [51].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy products, agricultural products, and chemical products. Each commodity's trend is described as high - level shock, small decline, range shock, etc., based on their respective fundamentals and market news [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to experience high - level shock. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 772.68, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Comex Gold 2510 rose by 0.99% to 3392.20. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][6]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to have a small decline. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9042, down 1.57%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][5][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, and the price will fluctuate. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,630, down 0.30%. The trend strength is 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Will trade in a range. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,265, up 0.27%. The trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports the price. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16,725, down 0.59%. The trend strength is 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Will trade in a range. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 267,840, down 0.09%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to experience high - level shock. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20,535, down 10. The trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals will cause narrow - range fluctuations, and beware of news - based risks. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,930, down 400. The trend strength is 0 [2][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price will fluctuate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820, down 65. The trend strength is 0 [2][28]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: The game between reality and expectations intensifies, and the market volatility will increase. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040, down 6,540. The trend strength is 0 [2][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is boosted. The Si2511 closing price was 8,390, down 235. The trend strength is 1 [2][37]. - **Polysilicon**: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted. The PS2511 closing price was 51,875, down 385. The trend strength is 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly reversed, and support remains. The trend strength is 1 [2][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both will experience wide - range fluctuations. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,132, down 12; HC2510 was 3,402, down 21. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Market sentiment is cold, and both will experience weak - side fluctuations. The closing price of Silicon Ferroalloy 2511 was 5622, down 56; Manganese Ferroalloy 2511 was 5818, down 80. The trend strength for both is - 1 [2][47]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both will experience wide - range fluctuations. The closing price of JM2601 was 1162.5, down 32; J2601 was 1678, down 30.5. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][50]. - **Log**: The price will fluctuate repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 805.5, down 0.6%. The trend strength is 0 [2][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: Crude oil rebounds, demand improves, and it is unilaterally strong. The closing price of the PX main contract was 6844, up 1.03%. - **PTA**: Cost provides support, and it is strong in the short - term. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4778, up 0.93%. - **MEG**: There is an expectation of overseas supply contraction, and it is strong in the short - term. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4477, up 1.20% [2][57]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Fundamentals provide strong support, and go long on macro - pullbacks. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it will experience high - level shock consolidation. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, rapeseed meal was weak, and Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate. - **Soybean No.1**: Will experience weak - side fluctuations. - **Corn**: Will operate weakly. - **Sugar**: Will be strong with fluctuations. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the listing situation of new cotton. - **Egg**: Pay attention to the culling rhythm of old hens. - **Live Pig**: Wait for the end - of - month spot verification. - **Peanut**: Near - term contracts are strong, and far - term contracts are weak [2][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range; silver is likely to decline slightly [2][4]. - Copper lacks a clear driver, and its price will oscillate [2][11]. - Zinc will trade within a range [2][14]. - The decreasing inventory of lead will support its price [2][17]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][20]. - Aluminum will trade in a high - level range; alumina will rise slightly in a sideways movement; cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][25]. - Nickel will have a narrow - range oscillation based on fundamental logic, and investors should be wary of news - related risks; stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing prices of沪金2510 and黄金T+D decreased by 0.31% and 0.33% respectively, while Comex黄金2510 increased by 0.99%. For silver,沪银2510 and白银T+D decreased by 1.57% and 1.74% respectively, and Comex白银2510 increased by 1.48%. The trading volumes and open interests of some contracts also changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of ETFs, domestic and foreign exchanges showed different trends, such as a decrease in SPDR黄金ETF持仓 by 4 and an increase in Comex白银库存 by 600,232 ounces [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals; Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook; Fed's potential payment innovation with the industry; China's August LPR remained unchanged [5][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1; silver trend intensity is - 1 [9]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪铜主力合约 decreased by 0.30% during the day and increased by 0.13% at night; the closing price of伦铜3M电子盘 increased by 0.38%. The trading volumes and open interests of both contracts changed [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of沪铜 decreased by 275 tons, and that of伦铜 increased by 1,200 tons. Various spreads such as LME铜升贴水 and现货 - to - futures spreads also changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish; China's August LPR remained unchanged; PT Smelting's maintenance was extended; Codelco's smelter restarted; Glencore applied for investment incentives; China's July copper imports data were released [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [13]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Related Data**: The closing price of沪锌主力 increased by 0.27%, and that of伦锌3M电子盘 decreased by 0.50%. Other data such as trading volume, open interest, and various spreads also changed [14]. - **News**: The US PPI reached 3.3%, and the growth rate of M2 was approaching 5%, which might lead to inflation [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Price and Related Data**: The closing price of沪铅主力 decreased by 0.59%, and that of伦铅3M电子盘 decreased by 0.33%. The inventory of沪铅 and伦铅 decreased, and other data such as trading volume, open interest, and spreads also changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish; China's August LPR remained unchanged [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [18]. 3.5 Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪锡主力 decreased by 0.09% during the day and 0.23% at night; the closing price of伦锡3M电子盘 increased by 0.01%. The trading volumes and open interests of both contracts changed [21]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of沪锡 decreased by 184 tons, and that of伦锡 increased by 85 tons. Various spreads also changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including Fed's meeting minutes, Trump's pressure on the Fed, etc. [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1 [24]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Related Data**: For aluminum,沪铝主力 and LME铝3M prices changed; for alumina,沪氧化铝主力 price changed. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, spreads, and enterprise profits also changed [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's August LPR remained unchanged; Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0 [27]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Industry Chain Data**: The closing prices of沪镍主力 and不锈钢主力 changed. Various data in the industrial chain such as import profit, spreads, and raw material prices also changed [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple events in the Indonesian nickel industry, including potential export suspension, project production, environmental violations, and production suspension; a steel mill in Shandong reduced production [28][31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range, while silver is expected to experience a slight decline [1] - The trend strength of gold is 1, indicating a relatively weak positive outlook; the trend strength of silver is - 1, indicating a relatively weak negative outlook [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: - For gold, the previous day's closing prices of沪金2510 and黄金T+D decreased by 0.31% and 0.33% respectively, while Comex黄金2510 increased by 0.99% [2] - For silver, the previous day's closing prices of沪银2510 and白银T+D decreased by 1.57% and 1.74% respectively, while Comex白银2510 increased by 1.48% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - For沪金2510, the previous day's trading volume increased by 31,416 compared to the day before, and the open interest increased by 39 [2] - For沪银2510, the previous day's trading volume increased by 242,392 compared to the day before, and the open interest decreased by 23,822 [2] - **ETF and Inventory**: - The SPDR gold ETF持仓 decreased by 4, and the SLV白银ETF持仓 (the day before yesterday) decreased by 34 [2] - The沪金 inventory increased by 249 kilograms, while the Comex黄金 inventory (the day before) decreased by 17,426 ounces; the沪银 inventory decreased by 9,247 kilograms, while the Comex白银 inventory (the day before) increased by 600,232 ounces [2] - **Price Spreads**: - The买沪金12月抛6月跨期套利 cost decreased by 0.87, and the买沪银12月抛6月跨期套利 cost decreased by 11.3 [2] - The黄金T+D对伦敦金的价差 increased by 378.99, and the白银T+D对伦敦银的价差 increased by 4,670 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: - The dollar index decreased by 0.04%, and the dollar - to - CNY (CNY spot) decreased by 0.06% [2] 3.2. Macro and Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most people think inflation is a higher risk than employment, and there are concerns about the fragility of the US Treasury market and the impact of stablecoins [4] - Trump pressured the Fed, asking Lisa Cook to resign, but Cook refused to be coerced [7] - Fed Chair favorite Waller said there's nothing to fear about cryptocurrency technology and the Fed should promote payment innovation with the industry [7] - Li Qiang emphasized promoting the improvement and upgrading of the biopharmaceutical industry [7] - China's August LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3% [7] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will study a 24 - hour trading mechanism [5]