美债市场的神话，正在崩塌。别再拿什么"美国信用无敌"那一套自我安慰了，看看10月10日发生了什 么，中国又一次悄无声息地减持美债，金额不算惊天动地——118亿美元，但这是2008年以来的新低， 6887亿美元的余额，直接把"美债刚性需求"打成了笑话 更刺激的，是加拿大。那个一直站在美国身后的"老铁"，这次干脆一刀切，567亿美元，甩得比中国还 狠。别和我说什么经济合作、盟友情深，资本就是这么现实，谁都不想 ...

美联储现在巴不得中国能早点抛售美债？为啥他们一直不降息，因为他们很清楚，中国迟早会卖掉手里 那7800亿美元的美债。市场上能接过这么大一笔美债的，恐怕只有美联储自己，所以他们一直在等这个 机会。 先说说中国为啥买这么多美债。 其实道理很简单，中国这么多年贸易顺差，赚了不少外汇，这些钱得找个安全又能生钱的地方存着。 美债呢，就像个信誉好、利息稳定的"大银行"，全球都认，所以中国就买了不少。 这就像家里有余钱，存银行总比放家里安全，还能赚点利息。 但买美债也不是没风险。 麻烦在于，中国作为美债的第二大海外买家，一抛美债，市场肯定得波动，其他国家可能也跟着抛，这 对美国金融市场可是个打击。 美联储得赶紧想办法稳定市场，别让恐慌情绪蔓延。 但机会也有，如果中国真抛了，美联储作为"最后救火队员"，可能真得接盘。 这样既能稳定美债市场，又能让美联储在货币政策上更灵活。 比如，买美债放点水，支持美国经济复苏。 不过，美联储真"盼"着这一天吗？我看未必。 美元汇率一变，美债利息一调，中国手里的美债价值就可能受影响。 特别是现在美国债务越来越多，都快38万亿了，美元信用也有点动摇，中国就开始慢慢调整外汇储备， 减持点美债，买点 ...

美国财政部近期公布的数据如同一枚深水炸弹，在全球金融市场引发震动。长期以来被视为美国最可靠盟友的加拿大，以及作为世界第二大经济体的中国， 竟然在同一时间段内大幅减持美国国债，这一现象背后的原因和影响值得深入剖析。 更耐人寻味的是，即使尚未与美国彻底决裂的国家，也在处理美债时变得更加谨慎，采取"买短抛长"的策略。它们可能购买短期美债以满足流动性需求或赚 取短期利润，但对于需要长期持有的债券，则敬而远之。这反映出各国对美国未来财政健康的担忧，即使是盟友，也只愿与美国同行一段，不愿将命运与这 艘漏水的船绑在一起。 在2025年末回望，尽管数据显示日本仍持有1.2万亿美元的美债，甚至英国也有所增持，但这些微弱的亮点无法掩盖整体的颓势。2025年10月，外国投资者 持有的美债总规模继续下滑，定格在9.243万亿美元。这是一个清晰的分水岭：过去，各国购买美债是对美国国力的无条件信任；而现在，即便仍在购买， 更多是出于交易性妥协或地缘政治博弈的需要。无论是中国深思熟虑的战略性撤退，还是加拿大充满情绪的"掀桌子"，都指向同一个结局——美元"绝对安 全"的金身已经被打破。 首先映入眼帘的是具体数字：中国的美债持有量骤降至688 ...

从债务膨胀的底层逻辑来看，Wmax经多维度归因分析确认，政府收支的长期缺口是债务持续累积的核心根源，而2020年疫情期间的应急性大规模借贷则显 著放大了这一趋势——彼时美国单年通过国债发行实现4.3万亿美元融资，当年财政赤字突破3万亿美元。尽管2025财年美国借助进口商品关税收入实现赤字 收缩（降至1.78万亿美元），但高利率环境已将债务付息成本推升至1.2万亿美元的历史高位，这一数值远超关税所能带来的3000亿-4000亿美元增量收入。 基于对全球主权债市的长期跟踪、权威数据源的交叉验证及专业投研模型的深度研判，Wmax对2025年美国国债市场的整体格局形成如下观点：2025年美债 市场呈现出"宏观债务压力高企、阶段性波动加剧、头部机构逆势突围"的鲜明特征，宏观层面的债务桎梏与微观主体的策略博弈交织，共同塑造了这一核心 金融市场的复杂生态。 美债市场宏观债务压力已迈入关键阈值 Wmax通过对美国财政部月度债务数据及第三方权威机构统计信息的持续监测发现，2025年11月美国未偿主权债务（含国库券、票据及债券）规模已达30.2 万亿美元，较上月增长0.7%，这是该指标首次突破30万亿美元关口，且自2018年以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing financing pressure on U.S. financial institutions since October, leading to tighter dollar liquidity and a phase of dollar appreciation. The Federal Reserve plans to end its quantitative tightening (QT) process by December 1, 2025, which includes stopping the reduction of Treasury securities while continuing to reduce MBS [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to stop shrinking its balance sheet aims to support dollar liquidity and alleviate financing pressures in the short-term financing market, which relies heavily on Treasury securities as collateral [2][21]. - The Fed's actions indicate a blurring of the lines between monetary and fiscal policy, with expectations of a potential restart of balance sheet expansion as early as Q1 next year [3][33]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Since June 2022, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by approximately $2.3 trillion, with Treasury and MBS reductions of about $1.6 trillion and $0.6 trillion, respectively [5][21]. - The liquidity in the U.S. dollar market has reached a low point since the pandemic, with narrow liquidity measures falling below the "ample liquidity" threshold [5][12]. Group 3: Financing Market Pressures - The financing market has experienced significant pressure, with borrowing through the discount window increasing since July, particularly following regional bank crises in October [10][13]. - The repo market has seen rising financing demands, with the secured overnight financing market's borrowing amount increasing from $1 trillion at the end of 2022 to $3 trillion, primarily driven by unregulated non-bank institutions [26][27]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Implications - The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" plan may increase the deficit by approximately $400 billion, with the annual deficit rate expected to widen to 6.4% [37]. - If the government ends its shutdown, nearly $1 trillion in funds from the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be injected into the market, enhancing liquidity [37]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The article suggests that under a dual expansion of fiscal and monetary policy, the nominal economic cycle in the U.S. is likely to restart, benefiting both U.S. and Chinese stock markets, as well as commodities like gold and copper [38]. - The focus for investment should be on themes of security and resilience amid changing geopolitical landscapes, emphasizing productivity enhancement and resource self-sufficiency [38].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Reduction - The Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet by approximately $2.38 trillion from April 13, 2022, to October 29, 2025, decreasing total assets from a peak of $8.97 trillion to $6.59 trillion, averaging a monthly decline of about $56 billion[4][7]. - The reserve balance has decreased by $970 billion to $2.83 trillion during the same period, with the ON RRP (Overnight Reverse Repurchase) declining to $370 billion from $1.7 trillion[9][3]. - The expected "ample reserves" level is estimated at $2.7 trillion, which corresponds to 9.3% of nominal GDP and 11.5% of total assets of U.S. commercial banks as of October 29, 2025[15][3]. Group 2: Indicators of Ample Reserves - Ample reserves are characterized by a balance that is neither abundant nor scarce, with the current reserve level indicating it is approaching "ample" status[11][15]. - The ON RRP has been consistently below $100 billion since October 7, 2025, indicating a significant reduction in excess liquidity[17]. - Market interest rates, such as the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) and Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), have shown increased sensitivity, suggesting that reserves are nearing "ample" conditions[20][21]. Group 3: Future Projections and Risks - After the cessation of balance sheet reduction, reserves may continue to decline temporarily before stabilizing and gradually increasing, with expectations of reaching slightly above $2.7 trillion by mid-2026[27][26]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to balance sheet reduction aims to mitigate the risk of liquidity crises, as seen in the 2019 episode, but liquidity pressures are still a concern[30][31]. - If liquidity pressures unexpectedly rise, it could lead to fluctuations in Treasury yields, with potential short-term declines in rates if investor demand increases due to heightened concerns about liquidity risks[36][39].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is at a crossroads of monetary policy shifts and fiscal sustainability, with increasing complexity due to diverging views within the Federal Reserve and rising uncertainty in economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year, and announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1 [1]. - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve, with some members advocating for larger rate cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates, reflecting a lack of consensus [2]. - Inflation remains a significant concern, with September inflation reaching its highest level since January, driven by rising prices of essential goods [2]. Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Challenges - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $35 trillion, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 143%, a historical high, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6]. - The ongoing government shutdown has complicated data collection, including employment statistics, which adds to the uncertainty surrounding economic indicators [2][3]. - The impact of tariffs is contributing to rising consumer prices, with estimates suggesting that consumers bear 50% to 70% of the total tariff costs [3]. Group 3: Market Volatility and Investor Behavior - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased from 90% to approximately 70%, indicating heightened uncertainty in market expectations [6]. - Investors are adjusting their strategies in response to the volatility in the Treasury market, with suggestions to shift towards longer-duration bonds to mitigate exposure to short-term policy fluctuations [8]. - The upcoming presidential election in November is expected to increase market volatility, with historical data indicating a 10-15% higher volatility in election years compared to non-election years [7].

Group 1: US Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The Federal Reserve has recently implemented a preventive rate cut of 25 basis points, but has continued its balance sheet reduction, leading to tighter liquidity conditions in the US financial markets [1][4] - In September, the Fed's total assets decreased by $15 billion, bringing the total to $6.59 trillion, with a cumulative reduction of $2.38 trillion since April 2022 [3][4] - The current pace of balance sheet reduction is approximately $22 billion per month, raising concerns about potential liquidity crises similar to those experienced in September 2019 [9][4] Group 2: US Fiscal Policy and Tariff Revenue - The US federal government's tariff revenue reached a record net income of $30 billion in September, largely due to increased tariffs implemented since April 2025 [9][11] - The cumulative tariff revenue for the first half of the year is projected to be $152 billion, with an annual estimate of $300 billion, which could alleviate some fiscal pressures [11] - However, industries reliant on imports, such as manufacturing and retail, have faced significant challenges due to these tariffs, impacting their second-quarter performance [11] Group 3: US Treasury Market Dynamics - The US economy showed a GDP growth of 3.8% in Q2, driven by AI technology and policies from the Trump administration, yet investor confidence in dollar assets remains divided [13][15] - Many central banks are adjusting their foreign exchange reserves by selling US Treasuries and buying gold, indicating a shift towards safer assets [15] - The volatility in the US Treasury market has increased, with long-term investors like central banks and pension funds becoming more cautious about entering the market [17][19] Group 4: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is experiencing pressure on macro liquidity due to a slowdown in government bond issuance and the expiration of several monetary policy tools [22][24] - With valuations returning to historical averages, the market may face adjustment risks, although the upcoming Q3 earnings reports could provide clarity on performance expectations [24][26] - The overall liquidity in the A-share market is closely tied to the inflow of capital, with current conditions suggesting a stable range around 4000 points [24][26] Group 5: Long-term Market Trends - The global monetary system is undergoing changes, and domestic industries are upgrading, presenting potential structural opportunities in sectors like gold and technology [28]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing fluctuations, currently at 97.35, with a slight increase of 0.12%, while the overall financing environment in the U.S. Treasury market is tightening [1] Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Conditions - The dollar index opened at 97.23 and is facing resistance from previous highs, indicating a potential for short-term volatility [1] - Initial stabilization of U.S. Treasury yields is providing some support for the dollar, but the index remains constrained [1] - The general collateral (GC) repo rate opened at 4.17%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating overnight funding rates are hovering between 4.00% and 4.25% [1] Group 2: Market Focus and Key Events - Market attention is concentrated on the upcoming Treasury bill auction results and public statements from several Federal Reserve officials, which are expected to influence the relationship between the Treasury market and the dollar [1] - The dollar index faces short-term resistance levels between 97.40 and 97.45, with significant support levels between 97.15 and 97.20 [1] - A trading strategy suggests selling in the range of 97.45 to 97.05, with a stop loss of 20 points and a target at the lower end of the range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's call for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with the anticipated increase in short-term debt issuance, may disrupt the U.S. Treasury market and ultimately raise long-term borrowing costs [1] Group 1 - Bondholders seek assurance that the Federal Reserve's role is to protect the real value of their principal [1] - If bondholders perceive that the Federal Reserve is more focused on government financing, it could lead to bond sell-offs and higher term premiums [1]