下周怎么走？分析师提醒，站稳4200美元才有望冲击10月高点，跌破4146美元可能结束反弹。想入手或 变现的朋友，记得紧盯关键价位。 截至目前，伦敦现货黄金报4065美元/盎司，美黄金4102美元/盎司，国内实时金价928元/克。品牌金饰 价格超稳定，周大福、周大生等多品牌报1295元/克，老凤祥、老庙黄金1305元/克，黄金回收价915元/ 克。 11月23日黄金价格。 金价最新动态来啦！2025年11月17到23日，黄金迎来本月首次周跌，跌幅0.46%。虽然现货黄金一度冲 到4133美元的周高点，但受美元走强、降息预期降温影响，最终承压回落。 ...

Market Overview - On November 14, 2025, global financial markets experienced significant turbulence, with international gold prices dropping over 2% and the COMEX gold futures closing at $4084.4 per ounce. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.61%, with popular Chinese stocks like Futu Holdings and Xpeng Motors declining by over 5% [1] - The core trigger for this market shake-up was the Federal Reserve officials' hawkish signals, leading to a sharp decline in the market's expectation for a rate cut in December from nearly 70% at the beginning of the month to below 50% [1][3] Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The market had previously anticipated that the Federal Reserve would implement its third rate cut of the year in December due to weakening labor market conditions and slowing economic growth. However, multiple Fed officials expressed caution in mid-November, which became a key driver for market adjustments [3] - Consensus among officials emphasized "anti-inflation" and "preventing excessive easing." Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding stated that further rate cuts could entrench high inflation, while Dallas Fed President Logan highlighted the need for clear evidence of inflation moving towards the 2% target before considering rate cuts [3][4] Economic Data Fragmentation - The U.S. government experienced its longest shutdown, leading to a disruption in the release of official employment and inflation data for October. Consequently, the Fed relied on private sector data, which indicated a mere 42,000 new jobs in October and a record high of 153,000 layoffs [4] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.3, the lowest since 2022, creating a dilemma for policy decisions. Continuing rate cuts could risk a rebound in inflation, while maintaining rates could exacerbate economic downturns due to a cooling labor market and declining consumer confidence [4][5] Market Reactions Precious Metals - The decline in rate cut expectations led to a significant sell-off in gold, with spot gold prices dropping from a high of $4200 per ounce to below $4100, marking a single-day decline of over 2%. COMEX gold futures fell by 2.62%, the largest drop since October [6] - Analysts noted that the classic logic of "interest rates and gold" returned, as the cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold increased with high-rate expectations [6] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.61%, with major internet platform companies like JD.com, Baidu, and Alibaba seeing declines of nearly 4%. In contrast, the renewable energy sector showed resilience, with companies like Canadian Solar and JinkoSolar rising [7] - The adjustment in Chinese stocks was influenced by tightening Fed policies, increasing financing costs for companies reliant on U.S. dollar debt, and ongoing concerns about the regulatory environment between China and the U.S. [7] Technology Stocks - Concerns over AI stock valuations intensified, with Oracle's market value dropping by over $250 billion in the past month. Despite a slight rebound of 2.44% on one day, Oracle's stock had cumulatively fallen by 6.85% that week [8][9] - The high leverage associated with AI investments raised alarms, prompting a reassessment of tech stock valuations. Some funds shifted investments from high-valuation AI stocks to more stable sectors like semiconductors [9] Oil Prices - In contrast to the declines in gold and stocks, international oil prices rose, with U.S. crude oil futures increasing by 2.15% to $59.95 per barrel. This increase was attributed to geopolitical risks affecting oil supply, including attacks on key oil ports and tensions in the Middle East [10] - Despite OPEC's shift in outlook from supply shortages to oversupply, the ongoing production cuts by major oil-producing countries and declining U.S. oil inventories maintained a tight supply-demand balance [10] Future Outlook - The current market environment is characterized by high uncertainty due to ambiguous Fed policies, fragmented global economic data, and rising geopolitical risks. Investment strategies are shifting towards defensive positions and sectors with more predictable outcomes [11][12] - Recommendations include focusing on high-dividend defensive sectors and areas with strong earnings certainty, such as renewable energy and semiconductor equipment, while avoiding high-valuation AI tech stocks and those dependent on U.S. dollar financing [12][13]

（文章来源：新华财经） 美联储官员最近的表态为降息路径提供了更多线索。美联储理事库克周一表示，12月的美联储会议有可 能降息，但届时的决定将基于从现在到那时之间来自广泛渠道的信息。库克指出，"当前，双重使命两 方面的风险都在上升。利率维持过高会增加劳动力市场急剧恶化的可能性；而降息幅度过大，则可能使 通胀预期脱锚。" 库克特别提到，自10月1日政府停摆以来，有关就业、通胀和经济增长的最新官方数据一直缺失，但强 调"我们并非在盲目行事"。决策者和工作人员正在积极梳理各种可用的行政数据、私营部门数据，以及 美联储对企业和家庭开展的多项调查结果。 此外，随着12月FOMC会议的临近，美债市场正陷入一场拉锯战。一端是美联储官员谨慎的利率政策， 另一端是不断扩张的美国债务与激增的企业债供应。美联储理事库克的观点或许代表了美联储内部的平 衡态度——"利率维持过高会增加劳动力市场急剧恶化的可能性；而降息幅度过大，则可能使通胀预期 脱锚"。 美债市场近期持续承压，收益率攀升至数周高位，美联储官员对降慎的谨慎表态与企业债供应激增共同 削弱了债市吸引力。美债收益率本周一（11月3日）全线上扬，纽约尾盘，10年期美债收益率上涨 2 ...

英国国债收益率攀升，追随美国和欧元区同类债券的走势，原因是投资者降低了对主要央行在未来几个 月降息的预期。此前，美联储周三降息，但表示利率不一定会在12月下降。与此同时，欧洲央行周四维 持利率不变，并指出经济具有韧性。随着美国和欧元区降息预期的下降，英国的降息预期也有所下滑。 伦敦证券交易所集团的数据显示，货币市场目前预计英国央行在2025年底前降息的几率为62%，低于一 周前的72%。Tradeweb的数据显示，10年期英国国债收益率攀升2.2个基点，至4.430%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Insights - The UK CPI data for July shows a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, exceeding market expectations and the previous value of 3.6% [1] - Core CPI also rose by 3.8%, surpassing both the forecast and prior value of 3.7% [1] - Following the data release, the British pound strengthened against the euro and experienced fluctuations against the US dollar [1] Economic Context - Prior to the data release, many market institutions anticipated a rebound in the UK CPI, and the actual results exceeded these expectations [1] - The Bank of England had previously predicted inflation would rise further, reaching a peak of 4% in September before gradually declining to the target rate of 2% [1] - Recent economic data indicates a 1.2% year-on-year GDP growth and a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth for the second quarter, both above market expectations [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Market institutions are now forecasting that the Bank of England may pause interest rate cuts in the upcoming September meeting to assess whether inflation is exerting sustained upward pressure [1]