A 全球市场发展现状 供应情况 全球纯苯产能增速呈现明显的先慢后快特征。2015—2019年，全球纯苯产能年均增速低于2%；而2020 —2024年，年均增速提升至5%，产能从6930万吨/年增长至8331万吨/年，增幅为20%。不过，进入2024 年，全球纯苯产能的增长势头已有所放缓。 分区域来看，北美、西欧地区的纯苯产能分别位列全球第二、第三，均超过千万吨，在全球总产能中的 占比均在12%左右。近年来，欧美地区的炼化企业受政策影响以及需求萎缩等因素制约，部分装置已逐 步被淘汰。全球纯苯产能主要集中在东北亚地区，截至2024年年底，东北亚地区纯苯产能约为4220万 吨/年，占全球总产能的50.7%，其中中国产能达到2573万吨/年。 从全球及中国纯苯产能的投放情况来看，近5年来，全球半数的新增产能来自中国，中国在全球纯苯供 应端的重要性逐年提升。2020—2024年，中国纯苯产能年复合增长率高达11%，远超全球4.8%的平均增 速。这主要得益于中国石油化工产业的战略调整，特别是在"降油增化"政策导向下，民营炼化一体化项 目大规模落地，以恒力石化、浙江石化、盛虹石化等为代表的民营炼化企业纷纷布局大型芳烃联合装 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 401 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.55% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 40 million yuan, down 14.00% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to the price drop of high-priced stainless steel products and oil slurry steam generators [3] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the "reduce oil and increase chemical" policy, coupled with its accelerated expansion into overseas oil and chemical heat exchanger markets, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [3] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2022 was 367 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.4%. The projected revenue for 2023 is 438 million yuan, a growth of 19.5%, followed by an expected decline to 401 million yuan in 2024 [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 40 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 103.2%. The forecast for 2024 is a net profit of 40 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 14.0% [6] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 20.5% in 2024, down from 22.2% in 2022, while the net margin is expected to be 10.1% in 2024 [6] Market Trends - The domestic heat exchanger market is expected to grow from 900.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 992.1 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.29% [4] - The "reduce oil and increase chemical" policy is driving the demand for heat exchangers, as large refining enterprises are actively promoting integrated refining and chemical upgrades [4] Company Positioning - The company has extensive experience in petrochemical heat exchangers and has established itself as a qualified supplier for major global companies such as Shell, Saudi Aramco, and ExxonMobil, indicating a strong competitive position [5] - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion efforts, which are expected to become a new growth driver while maintaining its domestic business [5]