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股债双弱
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 00:41
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a weak performance in both stocks and bonds. The stock index futures experience a pullback in hot sectors, the implied volatility of stock index options fluctuates at a low level, and the bond market remains weak in the short - term but is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the medium - term [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the sentiment in the equity market was weak, with sectors like computer, media, and new energy leading the decline, and only the dividend index being resilient. The factors contributing to the pullback are the sharp decline of Bitcoin against the US dollar on December 1st and the historical value - oriented style in December. Although it's unlikely to fall below the November low, the market is expected to be volatile in December, being stable before major meetings and facing risks in the second half of December. The recommended operation is to hold IM + dividend [1][7]. - **Stock Index Options**: On Tuesday, the trading volume of financial options decreased, and the implied volatility of each variety showed differentiation. The skewness remained at a high level, and the PCR of open interest decreased slightly, indicating weak market sentiment. In the short - term, the implied volatility may remain low, and the recommended strategy is to hold covered or short - put strategies. In the long - term, the market is expected to rise in a volatile manner, and it's advisable to pay attention to the layout window of far - month call options [2][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the previous day, treasury bond futures closed lower across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally increased. The central bank's net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase had a stabilizing effect on the short - end of the bond market. The sharp decline of Vanke bonds and the non - exceeding - expected net investment of 50 billion yuan in treasury bond trading in November by the central bank were negative factors. However, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading may boost market sentiment, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The recommended strategies include trend, hedging, basis, and curve strategies [3][7][8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's SPGI manufacturing PMI in November was 49.9, lower than the previous value of 50.9 and the forecast value of 50.5. The SPGI services PMI for November and other data are yet to be released. In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2, lower than the previous value of 48.7 and the forecast value of 49. Other data such as the ADP employment change and ISM non - manufacturing PMI for November are also pending release [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The director of the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to strengthen the domestic cycle, build a strong domestic market, and promote the coordinated resolution of risks in real estate, local government debt, and small and medium - sized financial institutions [9]. - As of December 1st, 27 provinces in China have fully implemented the direct payment of maternity allowances to individuals. - Six major state - owned banks and some other banks have stopped selling 5 - year large - denomination certificates of deposit, and the term structure of large - denomination certificates of deposit has become "short - term" [10]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not presented in the provided content.
国投期货期权日报-20251021
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 11:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the price, price changes, implied volatility (IV), and IV quantiles of various ETFs and indices over a specific period, as well as related data such as skew indices, smile curves, and the relationship between price, IV, and trading volume. It aims to help investors understand the market trends and volatility characteristics of these financial products. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the 50ETF price changed from 3.110 to 3.144, with a 1.06% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 17.52% to 14.65%, and the next month's IV decreased from 16.91% to 14.79% [1]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 65.70% - 73.80%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 54.80% - 67.60% [1]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 102.33 [2]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shanghai 300ETF price changed from 4.624 to 4.710, with a 1.51% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 20.10% to 15.86%, and the next month's IV decreased from 18.81% to 16.36% [3]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 46.50% - 84.20%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 62.40% - 76.30% [3]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 104.33 [7]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shenzhen 300ETF price changed from 4.768 to 4.858, with a 1.50% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 19.51% to 16.41%, and the next month's IV decreased from 18.99% to 16.80% [8]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 70.60% - 80.90%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 61.40% - 75.70% [8]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 101.86 [15]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shanghai CSI 500ETF price changed from 7.114 to 7.280, with a 2.33% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 24.66% to 16.40%, and the next month's IV decreased from 23.23% to 20.98% [18]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 75.90% - 81.30%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 59.90% - 72.70% [18]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 104.26 [21]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shenzhen CSI 500ETF price changed from 2.844 to 2.906, with a 1.61% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 26.35% to 18.52%, and the next month's IV decreased from 23.71% to 21.13% [27]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 82.80% - 85.80%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 62.00% - 75.00% [27]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 109.85 [32]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the ChiNext ETF price changed from 2.915 to 3.062, with a 3.06% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 35.56% to 29.25%, and the next month's IV decreased from 33.60% to 29.32% [33]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 70.00% - 86.70%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 59.90% - 82.80% [33]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 99.06 [38]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shenzhen 100ETF price changed from 3.393 to 3.512, with a 2.54% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 26.27% to 20.89%, and the next month's IV decreased from 26.40% to 23.11% [43]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 79.50% - 85.80%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 75.10% - 85.20% [43]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 98.08 [46]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF price changed from 1.433 to 1.477, with a 2.78% increase on October 21. The current month's IV increased from 41.33% to 37.58%, and the next month's IV decreased from 40.03% to 34.10% [52]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 73.40% - 85.20%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 59.90% - 80.50% [52]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 92.62 [54]. 3.9 STAR 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the STAR 50ETF price changed from 1.388 to 1.430, with a 2.66% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 42.72% to 32.04%, and the next month's IV decreased from 40.51% to 33.88% [58]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 57.10% - 87.90%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 53.00% - 86.80% [58]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 92.43 [60]. 3.10 300 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the 300 Index price changed from 4514.235 to 4607.872, with a 1.53% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 18.96% to 16.69%, and the next month's IV decreased from 20.44% to 18.28% [66]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 68.90% - 78.10%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 69.30% - 79.70% [66]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 102.69 [68]. 3.11 1000 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the 1000 Index price changed from 7185.478 to 7344.047, with a 1.45% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 25.42% to 22.48%, and the next month's IV decreased from 25.34% to 23.68% [69]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 61.60% - 68.90%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 55.50% - 66.60% [69]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 111.40 [72]. 3.12 Shanghai Composite 50 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index price changed from 2967.775 to 3007.263, with a 1.09% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 16.99% to 15.08%, and the next month's IV increased from 48.66% to 51.17% [73]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 57.10% - 66.20%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 53.00% - 80.50% [73]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 102.34 [79].