南华期权周报 I 2025/11/17—2025/11/21 隐波上升，金融、商品市场整体下跌 本周摘要 金融期权方面，50ETF 期权本周日均成交量为 80.63 万张， 较前周下降 0.00%，其中认沽期权成交量高于认购期权，认沽-认 购成交比为 1.04，相对前周有所下降，高于历史均值水平。上周 认沽认购持仓比为 0.98，较前周下降，高于历史均值。华泰柏瑞 300ETF 期权日均成交 98.95 万张，日均持仓量 146.93 万张；南 方中证 500ETF 期权日均成交 145.55 万张，日均持仓量 145.36 万张；华夏上证科创 50ETF 期权日均成交 118.44 万张，日均持 仓量 247.69 万张；深证 100ETF 期权日均成交 8.7 万张，日均持 仓量 13.98 万张；创业板 ETF 期权日均成交 184.65 万张，日均 持仓量 198.33 万张；沪深 300 股指期权日均成交 11.88 万手， 日均持仓量 21.09 万手；中证 1000 股指期权日均成交 26.93 万 手，日均持仓 32.31 万手。 波动率方面，截止本周五收盘，沪深 300 股指期权隐含波动 率 ...

请投资者密切关注到期合约的交易及行权事项，及时做好相关交易或行权准备： 11月24日，上交所公告，50ETF期权（510050）、300ETF期权（510300）、500ETF期权（510500）、科创50ETF期权（588000）、科创板50ETF期权 （588080）五只期权合约2025年11月到期合约的最后交易日、行权日、到期日为2025年11月26日，届时期权合约将到期并行权。 | 序号 | 期权合约品种 | | --- | --- | | 1 | 50ETF期权 | | 2 | 300ETF期权 | | 3 | 500ETF期权 | | 4 | 科创5OETF期权 | | 5 | 科创板50ETF期权 | 一、行权日当天，提出行权的认购期权权利方需准备足额的资金，提出行权的认沽期权权利方需准备足额的合约标的。 二、行权交收日，融资融券信用账户转到证券账户的合约标的不能用于当天期权的行权交收。 三、认购期权权利方通过行权得到的合约标的在行权交收日下一交易日起可以卖出。 请各期权经营机构做好投资者行权及到期提醒工作。 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 21 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 风险偏好走低，股指震荡回调 核心观点 今日各股指均大幅回调，全天弱势。沪深京三市全天成交额 19836 亿 元，较上日放量 2610 亿元。本轮回调的主要原因是国内政策利好驱动边际 减弱，叠加海外股市风险传导。进入 11 月之后，政策面的增量信号减弱， 年内政策继续加码的必要性不强，驱动股市上行的政策预期短线回落。海外 方面，美联储官员表态反复，降息预期呈现不确定性，叠加 AI 资产显露出 投资与收益难以匹配的泡沫风险，以英伟达为首的美股 AI 资产大幅回调， 风险传导下国内的科技股表现承压。总的来说，在利多驱动边际减弱，利空 因素升温的背景下，股市止盈情绪上升，引发股指短线回调，需注意市场悲 观情绪集中释放引发的超跌风险。中长期来看，政策面利好预期与资金持续 流入趋势并未发生改变，短线震荡整固之后股指中长期不悲观。总的来说， 短线市场博弈加剧，短期内股指区间震荡为主。 期权方面，考虑到股指中长线向上，股指深度回调之后可以牛市价差 思路对待。 （仅供参考，不构成 ...

期货研究报告 股指震荡小幅回调 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 18 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 核心观点 今日各股指均小幅回调，全天表现弱势。沪深京三市全天成交额 19460 亿元，较上日放量 156 亿元。短期内来看，11 月政策面增量信号减弱，地 缘因素引发避险情绪升温，随着股指接近前期高点，获利资金止盈意愿上 升，股指存在技术性整固的需求。不过整体来看目前股指处于政策利好预期 发酵节奏与获利资金止盈节奏相互博弈的短线震荡期。中长期来看，政策利 好预期与资金净流入股市趋势共同构成股指的强力支撑。总的来说，短线多 空博弈加剧，短期内股指区间震荡为主。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 16 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 ...

Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Volatility Spread - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [2] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means IV is relatively higher than HV, and a smaller difference means IV is relatively lower [2] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Charts - There are charts showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including stock - index options (300 index, 1000 index, 50ETF, 500ETF), precious metals (silver, gold), agricultural products (soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton), energy and chemicals (PTA, methanol, rubber), base metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, PVC), and others (urea, rapeseed meal, palm oil) [3][5] Group 3: Quantile Ranking of Volatility Index and Volatility Spread - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's implied volatility in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low [6] - The volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [6] - There are rankings of historical volatility quantiles and implied volatility quantiles for different varieties such as 300 index, 50ETF, PTA, etc. [7]

波动率数据日报 隐含波动率分位数排名 历史波动率分位数排名 0. 89 494 0.63 300 级 指 0.64 45 0.62 PTA 0.53 300 版 指 0.49 五米 0.51 50ETF 0.47 50ETE 0.42 PTA 0.45 天峻 0.30 铁矿石 0.15 45 0.23 天殿 0.12 a 88 0.20 7 14 011 铁,4,6 o Ta EX 0.01 台新 0.18 神花 0.01 PVC 白等 0.00 0.12 PVC 神花 0.03 0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 05 0.7 0.8 0 a 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0 a 1 永安期货期权总部 更新时间: 2025/11/12 、隐含波动率指数、历史波动率及其价差走势图 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交易日的30日隐波走势,商品期权隐含波动 率指数通过主力月平值期权上下两档隐波加权所得,反映主力合约的隐波变化趋势。2 隐波指数与历史波动率的差值,差值越大反映隐波相对历史波动率越高,差值越小代 表隐波相对历史波动率越低。 70 -300股指 I ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. The report mainly provides detailed data on various financial products such as ETFs and indices, including price, volatility, and skew index information. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - From November 6 - 10, 2025, the price fluctuated, with a 1.27% increase on the 6th, a 0.13% decrease on the 7th, and a 0.47% increase on the 10th. The current month IV ranged from 12.51% - 12.80%, and the next - month IV from 14.78% - 14.89% [1]. - The near - 1 - year current month IV quantile was 21.60% - 22.00%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 20.00% - 22.00%. The near - 1 - year next - month IV quantile was 35.40% - 40.00%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 45.40% - 48.60% [1]. - The skew index today was 92.65, compared to 102.82 yesterday [2]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - From November 6 - 10, 2025, the price fluctuated, with a 1.48% increase on the 6th, a 0.21% decrease on the 7th, and a 0.25% increase on the 10th. The current month IV ranged from 14.37% - 14.53%, and the next - month IV from 15.94% - 16.28% [3]. - The near - 1 - year current month IV quantile was 28.90% - 30.20%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 37.80% - 39.60%. The near - 1 - year next - month IV quantile was 46.80%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 53.90% - 57.70% [3]. - The skew index today was 102.05, compared to 104.72 yesterday [5]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - From November 6 - 10, 2025, the price fluctuated, with a 1.54% increase on the 6th, a 0.30% decrease on the 7th, and a 0.38% increase on the 10th. The current month IV ranged from 14.58% - 14.95%, and the next - month IV from 16.41% - 16.74% [6]. - The near - 1 - year current month IV quantile was 31.40% - 34.20%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 40.80% - 46.00%. The near - 1 - year next - month IV quantile was 47.40% - 50.40%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 59.40% - 61.90% [6]. - The skew index today was 99.49, compared to 104.41 yesterday [12]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - From November 6 - 10, 2025, the price fluctuated, with a 1.89% increase on the 6th, a 1.50% increase on the 7th, and a 0.04% decrease on the 10th. The current month IV ranged from 18.55% - 18.71%, and the next - month IV from 19.92% - 20.13% [16]. - The near - 1 - year current month IV quantile was 34.20% - 35.50%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 38.40% - 40.20%. The near - 1 - year next - month IV quantile was 46.80% - 57.00%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 48.10% - 56.20% [16]. - The skew index today was 102.88, compared to 106.34 yesterday [21]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - From November 6 - 10, 2025, the price fluctuated, with a 1.67% increase on the 6th, a 0.37% decrease on the 7th, and a 0.17% increase on the 10th. The current month IV ranged from 18.65% - 18.98%, and the next - month IV from 20.12% - 20.31% [26]. - The near - 1 - year current month IV quantile was 34.20%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 39.80% - 40.40%. The near - 1 - year next - month IV quantile was 45.10% - 56.60%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 54.30% - 56.40% [26]. - The skew index today was 102.13, compared to 106.11 yesterday [31]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - From November 6 - 10, 2025, the price decreased, with a 1.88% increase on the 6th, a 0.50% decrease on the 7th, and a 0.85% decrease on the 10th. The current month IV ranged from 28.49% - 29.04%, and the next - month IV from 30.04% - 30.61% [32]. - The near - 1 - year current month IV quantile was 57.10% - 58.30%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 69.30% - 71.50%. The near - 1 - year next - month IV quantile was 59.90% - 73.70%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 73.70% - 75.60% [32]. - The skew index today was 98.35, compared to 102.10 yesterday [37]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - From November 6 - 10, 2025, the price fluctuated, with a 1.82% increase on the 6th, a 0.64% decrease on the 7th, and a 0.22% increase on the 10th. The current month IV ranged from 19.96% - 20.37%, and the next - month IV from 21.33% - 22.33% [41]. - The near - 1 - year current month IV quantile was 49.70% - 51.80%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 60.90% - 62.50%. The near - 1 - year next - month IV quantile was 52.30% - 56.50%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 66.30% - 69.70% [41]. - The skew index today was 101.73, compared to 104.78 yesterday [44]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - From November 6 - 10, 2025, the price decreased, with a 3.36% increase on the 6th, a 1.46% decrease on the 7th, and a 0.61% decrease on the 10th. The current month IV ranged from 31.64% - 32.60%, and the next - month IV from 33.27% - 34.03% [50]. - The near - 1 - year current month IV quantile was 50.20% - 67.40%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 59.00% - 73.90%. The near - 1 - year next - month IV quantile was 52.20% - 73.90%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 59.90% - 74.80% [50]. - The skew index today was 93.39, compared to 96.47 yesterday [52]. 3.9 Star 50ETF - From November 6 - 10, 2025, the price decreased, with a 3.39% increase on the 6th, a 1.37% decrease on the 7th, and a 0.69% decrease on the 10th. The current month IV ranged from 31.37% - 32.95%, and the next - month IV from 32.71% - 34.12% [55]. - The near - 1 - year current month IV quantile was 53.80% - 70.10%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 56.50% - 75.40%. The near - 1 - year next - month IV quantile was 50.60% - 73.30%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 56.50% - 72.00% [55]. - The skew index today was 93.79, compared to 97.75 yesterday [58]. 3.10 300 Index - From November 6 - 10, 2025, the price fluctuated, with a 1.43% increase on the 6th, a 0.31% decrease on the 7th, and a 0.35% increase on the 10th. The current month IV ranged from 13.35% - 13.87%, and the next - month IV from 16.42% - 16.54% [63]. - The near - 1 - year current month IV quantile was 21.20% - 30.60%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 21.40% - 31.00%. The near - 1 - year next - month IV quantile was 42.80% - 57.40%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 54.80% - 57.40% [63]. - The skew index today was 104.41, compared to 105.33 yesterday [66]. 3.11 1000 Index - From November 6 - 10, 2025, the price fluctuated, with a 1.17% increase on the 6th, a 0.13% decrease on the 7th, and a 0.28% increase on the 10th. The current month IV ranged from 17.52% - 17.98%, and the next - month IV from 19.98% - 20.18% [67]. - The near - 1 - year current month IV quantile was 14.20% - 22.00%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 16.30% - 19.40%. The near - 1 - year next - month IV quantile was 23.20% - 25.70%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 19.20% - 25.70% [67]. - The skew index today was 113.60, compared to 117.24 yesterday [70]. 3.12 Shanghai 50 Index - From November 6 - 10, 2025, the price fluctuated, with a 1.22% increase on the 6th, a 0.21% decrease on the 7th, and a 0.51% increase on the 10th. The current month IV ranged from 12.91% - 13.21%, and the next - month IV from 49.93% - 62.00% [71]. - The near - 1 - year current month IV quantile was 15.10% - 20.20%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 15.90% - 20.20%. The near - 1 - year next - month IV quantile was 91.00% - 91.40%, and the near - 2 - year quantile was 95.50% - 95.70% [71]. - The skew index today was 101.83, compared to 101.00 yesterday [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose with fluctuations during the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index opened slightly lower and fluctuated. The performance of different ETFs varied, with 50ETF and Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF showing certain increases, and Southern CSI 500ETF having a small increase. In the options market, the average daily trading volume and total open interest of various ETF options increased. Volatility decreased, with short - term volatility significantly dropping, and the implied volatility curve structure slightly shifting to the right. The market risk preference declined. Considering the current situation, the probability of implied volatility strengthening in the future is relatively high, and a volatility strategy of selling high is recommended [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Spot and Futures Market Review 3.1.1. Underlying Asset Market - From November 3rd to 7th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.08% compared to the previous week, closing at 3997.56 with lower trading volume. The Shenzhen Component Index opened slightly lower, fluctuated during the week, and closed at 13404.06 with lower trading volume. 50ETF opened at 3.153 and closed at 3.186, rising 0.82% with a turnover of 11.564 billion. Huatai - PineBridge CSI 300ETF opened at 4.752 and closed at 4.795, rising 0.82% with a turnover of 19.074 billion. Southern CSI 500ETF opened at 7.427 and closed at 7.440, rising 0.05% with a turnover of 7.169 billion [8]. 3.1.2. Index Futures Market - From November 3rd to 7th, all IH contracts of stock index futures closed up. Contract IH2511 rose 0.76%. All IF contracts closed up, with contract IF2511 rising 0.57%. All IC contracts closed down, with contract IC2511 falling 0.30% [9]. 3.2. Options Market Review 3.2.1. Trading and Open Interest - From November 3rd to 7th, the average daily trading volume and total open interest of 50ETF options increased. The average daily trading volume was 864,446 contracts, an increase of 31,600 contracts compared to the previous week. The total open interest was 1,530,207 contracts, an increase of 69,092 contracts from the previous weekend. The total open interest PCR was 0.97, up 0.07 from the previous weekend. For Huatai - PineBridge CSI 300ETF options, the average daily trading volume was 1,031,324 contracts, an increase of 43,523 contracts compared to the previous week. The total open interest was 1,376,297 contracts, an increase of 116,890 contracts from the previous weekend. The total open interest PCR was 1.12, up 0.09 from the previous weekend. For Southern CSI 500ETF options, the average daily trading volume was 1,513,130 contracts, an increase of 90,928 contracts compared to the previous week. The total open interest was 1,361,584 contracts, an increase of 40,101 contracts from the previous weekend. The total open interest PCR was 1.26, basically unchanged from the previous weekend [13][16][21]. 3.2.2. Volatility - **Historical Volatility**: As of November 7th, the 5 - day historical rolling volatility of 50ETF dropped to 9.69%, around the 25th percentile of the five - year historical level. The 5 - day, 10 - day, 20 - day, and 40 - day historical volatilities were 9.69%, 10.60%, 11.57%, and 11.90% respectively. The 5 - day historical rolling volatility of Huatai - PineBridge CSI 300ETF dropped to 12.63%, around the 50th percentile of the five - year historical level, with corresponding historical volatilities of 12.63%, 15.12%, 15.91%, and 16.82%. The 5 - day historical rolling volatility of Southern CSI 500ETF dropped to 18.52%, around the 50th percentile of the five - year historical level, with corresponding historical volatilities of 18.52%, 19.76%, 22.32%, and 22.34% [25][29][31]. - **Implied Volatility**: On November 7th, for each options variety's 2025 - 11 and 2025 - 12 contracts, the implied volatility of at - the - money contracts declined, while the implied volatility of out - of - the - money contracts remained at a relatively high level. The implied volatility curve structure slightly shifted to the right. For the 500ETF, which had a relatively large decline, the valuation of put contracts was relatively high, indicating a decline in market risk preference [34]. - **Comparison of Historical and Implied Volatility Trends**: Short - term volatility significantly declined. The volatility of 50ETF dropped below 10%, and the weekly volatility of 300ETF and 500ETF dropped from the 75th percentile to the 50th percentile of the historical level. Monthly volatility also declined further, and the implied volatility mainly decreased during the week. Currently, the implied volatility level is still lower than the historical volatility, and it is believed that the probability of implied volatility strengthening in the future is relatively high [41]. 3.3. Investment Recommendations - In terms of strategies, the weekly market first fell and then rose. Small - cap growth stocks declined more, while large - cap stocks were relatively stable and performed slightly better than small - cap stocks. The open interest PCR level showed different trends according to the rise and fall of the underlying assets, and the current level is around the historical median. Considering the implied volatility, the overall level has decreased. On the implied volatility curve, the volatility of at - the - money contracts decreased, but the implied volatility of out - of - the - money contracts remained high, indicating a decline in market risk preference. Given that the current implied volatility level is lower than the historical volatility, if the market fluctuates significantly, the volatility level may suddenly rise. Therefore, a volatility strategy of selling high is still recommended [4][44].

- The "Timing Radar Six-Dimensional Chart" is a multi-dimensional timing framework that evaluates the equity market using 21 indicators categorized into four dimensions: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macroeconomic Fundamentals," "Funds & Trends," and "Crowdedness & Reversal" These dimensions generate a composite timing score ranging from [-1,1][1][6][8] - The "Liquidity" dimension includes factors such as "Monetary Direction" and "Credit Direction," which signal a slightly bullish outlook this week with a score of 0.50[8][11][17] - The "Economic" dimension uses factors like "Growth Direction" and "Inflation Direction" to assess macroeconomic conditions This week, the score is neutral at 0.00, with "Growth Direction" signaling bullish and "Inflation Direction" signaling bearish[8][22][27] - The "Valuation" dimension evaluates equity cost-effectiveness using indicators like "Shiller ERP," "PB," and "AIAE" This week, the score is -0.49, indicating a slightly bearish outlook[8][30][35][37] - The "Funds" dimension analyzes capital flows through indicators such as "Margin Financing Increment" and "China Sovereign CDS Spread" This week, the score is neutral at 0.00, with domestic capital showing bullish signals and foreign capital showing bearish signals[8][39][46][48] - The "Technical" dimension captures market trends and reversals using indicators like "Price Trend" and "New Highs and Lows" This week, the score is neutral at 0.00, with "Price Trend" signaling bullish and "New Highs and Lows" signaling bearish[8][51][53] - The "Crowdedness" dimension measures market sentiment using derivative signals like "Option Implied Premium," "VIX," and "SKEW," as well as "Convertible Bond Pricing Deviation" This week, the score is 0.50, indicating a slightly bullish sentiment[8][57][63][67]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of investment strategies from a conservative arbitrage approach to a more aggressive equity holding strategy, emphasizing the importance of resilience during market downturns [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Evolution - Initially, the focus was on stable arbitrage, but exposure to market volatility led to a shift towards holding high equity positions [1][2]. - The experience of significant market drops taught the importance of managing risk and the psychological aspect of enduring losses [2][3]. Group 2: Market Resilience - The author highlights that true investment strength comes from the ability to withstand market fluctuations, with a clear understanding that no investment is entirely safe [3]. - The confidence in holding positions in 50ETF and convertible bonds stems from the belief in the long-term recovery of fundamentally strong assets [3]. Group 3: Market Behavior and Risk Management - The article emphasizes that market volatility is a natural occurrence, and investors must be prepared to handle substantial drawdowns to achieve greater returns [3]. - The narrative suggests that maintaining composure during downturns and strategically adding to positions can lead to eventual recovery and profit [2][3].