周五（1月30日）纽约时段，国际贵金属价格大幅跳水，其中现货白银一度跌超36%，黄金最高跌超12%。 具体行情显示，现货白银价格自北京时间23:00开始加速下滑，凌晨02:40左右跌至盘中低位每盎司74.31美元，跌幅最大时超过36%。截至发 稿，银价报85.8美元，跌幅收窄至26%附近。 贵金属的这轮剧烈下跌最初由"特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席"的消息触发，有分析认为这一提名缓解了市场对美联储独立性的 担忧，推动美元走高打压金银。 Evercore ISI副董事长Krishna Guha称，市场正在按"鹰派沃什"进行交易，"沃什的提名有助于稳定美元，并降低美元持续走弱的单边风险，从而 挑战'货币贬值交易'的逻辑——这也是金银大幅下跌的原因。" "货币贬值交易"指的是投资者因担忧政府债务持续膨胀而避开国债和货币，转而涌向实物资产，尤其是贵金属。 现货黄金价格也几乎在同一时间跌至每盎司4683.04美元的日内低位，跌幅最高时超过12%。截至发稿，金价报4906美元，跌幅收窄至8.8%左 右。 除此以外，美元的升值也将使美国以外的投资者购买黄金和白银的成本上升。 Guha补充道："我们不建议在各类资产 ...

Core Insights - The strength of international equities ETFs is a significant market story for 2025, driven by investor interest in diversifying away from U.S. stocks and A.I.-driven concentration risks [1][2] - The performance of international equities ETFs in 2026 remains uncertain, but factors such as a weakening dollar and favorable foreign market conditions may support continued investor interest [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly seeking foreign diversification to mitigate risks associated with the U.S. stock market, including a shifting yield curve and a declining dollar [2][3] - Many foreign markets have been more effective in managing inflation and are ahead of the U.S. in cutting cycles, making them attractive to U.S. investors [4] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The international equities space is diverse, with varying outcomes across different markets, suggesting that some markets may underperform while individual firms may thrive [5] - Active international equities ETFs, such as the T. Rowe Price International Equity ETF (TOUS), leverage fundamental research to identify investment opportunities, potentially outperforming passive ETFs in 2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Amundi's 2025 global investment outlook indicates a strong performance in the US stock market, while European markets are stabilizing, influenced by AI capital expenditure expectations and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The US stock market reached new highs in August, while European markets approached March levels, with corporate credit spreads narrowing during the summer [1] - Market sentiment is buoyed by strong earnings in the US and a relatively mild position from the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole meeting, despite underlying economic risks [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Fiscal Policies - Key themes for the medium term include rising US inflation expectations, increased fiscal spending plans in the US and EU, and ongoing accommodative monetary policies, leading to rising yields across major economies [2] - The yield curve is steepening due to concerns over fiscal deficits, particularly in the US and Europe, with long-term yields expected to rise further due to pension reforms in some European countries [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Amid rising geopolitical risks, Amundi suggests diversifying investments away from the US market towards Europe and Japan, as Europe is better positioned to mitigate tariff-related shocks through fiscal and monetary policies [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a focus on financially sound companies and special risks, while also capitalizing on opportunities arising from weak stock prices [3] Group 4: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are showing signs of recovery, with improvements in economic conditions in countries like China and India, while Brazil and Indonesia's political situations are back in focus [4] - Internal tax reforms in countries like India are expected to boost domestic consumption, which is a key growth driver, and the overall positive outlook for emerging markets is supported by a dovish Federal Reserve [4] Group 5: Risk Assets and Economic Outlook - Despite a lack of extreme macroeconomic data in the US and Europe, Amundi maintains a cautious outlook on US economic growth due to deteriorating labor market conditions and potential consumption suppression from tariffs [5] - The company is slightly optimistic about risk assets, including emerging markets, and suggests allocating to gold and stock hedging tools to enhance protection against geopolitical risks and fiscal deterioration [5]