预计北京时间周三3点公布的美联储12月9日至10日政策会议纪要，将让人们重新审视决策者之间关于连 续第三次降低短期利率决定的分歧，并释放出2026年早期将维持利率不变的信号。 美联储的预测表明，两位鹰派异议者——堪萨斯城联储主席施密德和芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比并不孤 单，无论是在七位无投票权的地区联储主席中，还是在那些暂且按下对降息的怀疑以支持鲍威尔和多数 派的投票委员中，都有同路人。在19位决策者中，有6位将3.9%列为合适的2025年年底利率，这一水平 高于实际降息后的利率。 对于明年，决策者们关于利率去向的分歧甚至更大，一些人认为不降息是合适的，而另一些人则更支持 降息一次、两次或更多。 自该决定以来，因政府停摆而推迟发布的一系列官方经济数据倾向于支持鸽派观点，尽管经济学家表 示，这些报告缺失和估算的数据太多，值得高度怀疑。 例如，11月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨了相对温和的2.7%，但大部分数据来自该月下半月（即 政府重新开放后）收集的价格，当时零售商正为假日季提供折扣。 另一份报告显示失业率升至4.6%，但这是使用一种不寻常的方法得出的，因为政府停摆阻碍了常规的 数据收集工作。 美联储将政策利 ...

在12月议息会议上，美联储宣布下调基准利率25个基点，与市场预期一致，今年累计降息75个基点。会 后公布的点阵图显示，美联储决策层的利率路径预测和9月公布点阵图时一致，依然预计明年会有一次 25个基点的降息。这意味着，明年美联储降息动作或较今年明显减少。 市场在会议前基本定价了"鹰派"降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上的发言以及准备金管理型购债 （RMP）的启动反而是超预期"鸽派"。因此，除了美元指数下跌之外，以美股和有色金属为代表的风险 资产价格普遍上涨，各期限美债利率均有所下行。除了利率政策外，交易者应关注新一任美联储主席在 资产负债表管理、去监管、提振房地产等方面的不同政策取向及对市场流动性的影响。 美联储12月如期降息，启动扩表 本次会议声明较9月有所变化。经济描述方面，声明仅称失业率"小幅上升"，但不再提"仍处于低位"。 其他有关经济的表述基本不变，继续强调经济活动温和扩张，就业增长放缓，通胀较年初水平有所上升 且保持较高水平。在评估未来是否需要进一步调整利率时，新增了"幅度和时机"的表述。此处变化可能 为此后美联储放慢降息节奏做铺垫，预示着预防式降息可能结束，但也符合会议前"鹰派"降息的预期。 此 ...

打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美联储出人意料倾向鸽派，令市场措手不及。 美联储公开市场委员会于周三下午宣布降息0.25%，这完 全在市场预期之内，也是FOMC会议连续第三次降息25个基点。FOMC以9比3的投票结果决定将基准联 邦基金利率下调25个基点，至3.5%-3.75%的区间。FOMC声明暗示，美联储何时会再次降息存在更大的 不确定性。 COMEX黄金期货周四（12月11日）日K收涨，黄金价格在美国交易时段早盘表现坚挺。这种贵金属正 看到更多的技术性买盘，并受益于美联储出人意料的鸽派倾向(也有分析师解读为鹰派)。2月黄金期货 (COMEX期货金价格一般高于现货金十几美元)盘中上涨20.40美元，至每盎司4,245.00美元。 在FOMC会议结束和美联储主席鲍威尔周三下午举行新闻发布会后，美国股指上涨，美国国债收益率下 滑，美元指数下跌，黄金上涨。 在本周FOMC会议召开前的几天里，市场多数观点认为，尽管预计会降息，但美联储和鲍威尔将在美国 货币政策上发出略微更鹰派的论调。然而，市场认为美联储购买美国国库券这一鸽派举动，盖过了任何 其他可能被视为鹰派的美联储言论。 【最新黄金期货行情解析 ...

格隆汇12月12日｜骏利亨德森投资环球短存续期及流动性主管兼投资组合经理Daniel Siluk表示，美联 储今年第三度降息，将目标区间下调至3.5%-3.75%，但讯息十分明确：预防性宽松的时代已经结束。在 12月的声明中，美联储强调未来的政策动向将取决于数据，并将明确逐次会议作出利率决定。主席鲍威 尔在记者会上再次强调这一立场，指出委员会认为今日的降息是审慎的调整，而非新一轮循环的开端。 经济展望摘要(SEP)同样展现"鹰派"基调，2026与2027年的增长预测略微上调，2026年的通胀预期略微 下降，失业率在中期展望中保持稳定。此举反映美联储有信心通胀将降温而不破坏经济成长，同时也表 明进一步降息的门槛极高。在鲍威尔强调耐心而委员会意见分歧的情况下，美联储将以观望姿态进入 2026年，并等待新任主席的到来。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the overall tone was less hawkish than the market anticipated, indicating a more dovish stance [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points marks the first direct inclusion of a bond purchase plan in the policy statement since the liquidity crisis in early 2020, which analysts interpret as a clear dovish signal [1]. - The dot plot revealed that while six members supported maintaining rates next year, only two dissenters were present, which was below market expectations for a more hawkish stance [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Projections - Bloomberg's chief economist Anna Wong noted that the overall tone was dovish, with the committee raising growth expectations while lowering inflation forecasts, maintaining the dot plot unchanged [4]. - Goldman Sachs' David Mericle highlighted that the decision included subtle hawkish elements but overall aligned with expectations, noting the unusual nature of directly including bond purchases in the statement [4]. Group 3: Labor Market and Economic Uncertainty - Goldman Sachs' Mike Cahill pointed out that the committee maintained the unemployment rate forecast at 4.5% for Q4, suggesting a slowdown in growth, with current unemployment at 4.44% [4]. - Principal Asset Management's Seema Shah expressed skepticism about the Fed's confidence in the economy, predicting a pause to assess the lagging effects of previous tightening policies [8]. Group 4: Policy Uncertainty and Future Leadership - Bianco Research's Jim Bianco mentioned that the upcoming change in Federal Reserve leadership could introduce significant policy variability, as the new chair may be perceived as having a political agenda [7]. - Tikehau Capital's Raphael Thuin noted that the lack of visibility in data forces policymakers to balance between weak labor signals and demand driving inflation down, leading to greater policy uncertainty [6].

Group 1 - Global central bank policies are experiencing rare divergence, with investors betting on potential interest rate hikes in the Eurozone as early as next year, while the US is expected to continue lowering rates [1][4] - The swap market indicates that the likelihood of the European Central Bank raising rates by 2026 has surpassed the possibility of cuts, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts [1][4] - The divergence in policies may exacerbate the decline of the US dollar, which has already fallen over 8% against a basket of currencies this year [1][7] Group 2 - Economic data supports the hawkish shift in Europe and commodity currency countries, while the Federal Reserve's dovish path appears set, with expectations of rate cuts in the upcoming meetings [7] - Analysts note that the narrowing interest rate gap between the US and other major economies could lead to a revaluation of the dollar, particularly if the Fed maintains a dovish stance [7] - Strong economic data in regions like the Eurozone reduces the incentive for non-US central banks to cut rates further, potentially leading to a challenging year for the dollar if the Fed continues its rate cuts alone [7] Group 3 - In Canada, strong employment data has led traders to price in a slight possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada early next year [9] - In Australia, robust household spending data has made the possibility of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia in February more plausible, though still considered low [9] - The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise rates at least twice by 2026, while the Bank of England is anticipated to lower rates but only slightly in the near term [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book serves as a critical indicator for the future direction of U.S. monetary policy, especially following a prolonged government shutdown and a lack of economic data [2][3]. Economic Activity - The Beige Book indicates that most of the twelve Federal Reserve districts experienced little change in economic activity compared to the previous period, with two districts showing "moderate decline" and one showing "modest growth" [2]. - Overall consumer spending in the U.S. has declined, except for high-end retail, while manufacturing activity has generally increased, although tariffs and uncertainty surrounding them remain obstacles [2][3]. Labor Market - Approximately half of the districts reported a weakening in labor demand, with wage growth remaining slow [2][3]. Price Pressures - The report highlights that rising costs due to tariffs have put pressure on manufacturing and retail sectors, leading to increased input costs [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following the Beige Book's release, Wall Street interpreted the contents as a clear signal for potential "hawkish rate cuts," resulting in significant gains across major U.S. stock indices [3][4]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen by 11.48%, the Nasdaq by 20.22%, and the S&P 500 by 15.83% year-to-date, reflecting the market's positive response to anticipated monetary easing [3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts in December has surged to 85%, with expectations that the Fed will prioritize achieving a 2% inflation target while also promoting full employment and economic growth [4][5]. - There is an ongoing debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the approach to inflation, with "hawks" advocating for a tougher stance and "doves" favoring a more lenient approach [4][5]. Economic Perspectives - There is a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates and increase tolerance for inflation to address the evident economic slowdown [5]. - Some economists argue that inflation can lead to higher wages and costs without necessarily eroding purchasing power, suggesting that a moderate level of inflation could benefit consumption, particularly for younger, debt-laden demographics [5][6]. Leadership Changes - The impending change in leadership at the Federal Reserve has amplified the consensus for potential rate cuts, with current White House economic officials advocating for immediate action based on available data [6].

Core Conclusion - The composition of the FOMC's 12 voting members is likely to be 4 doves, 4 hawks, and 4 neutrals, indicating a marginally dovish shift compared to the current composition of 3 doves, 4 neutrals, and 5 hawks [2][8] Group 1: FOMC Personnel Changes - The current Fed Chair Powell's term ends in May next year, with five candidates considered for the position, all of whom are dovish [3][9] - The candidates' winning probabilities are as follows: Hassett (57%), Waller (23%), Walsh (14%), Riedel (4%), and Bowman (1%) [3][9] - Powell's decision to remain as a board member after stepping down as chair could limit the selection of the new chair [3][11] Group 2: Board of Governors - Among the current governors, Waller, Milan, and Bowman are dovish, while Barr is hawkish, and Powell, Jefferson, and Cook are neutral [4][12] - Milan is likely to have his term extended, with low probability of Cook being dismissed [4][13] - The new chair's selection and Powell's potential continuation as a board member will influence the board's composition [4][14] Group 3: Regional Federal Reserve Presidents - The current regional Fed presidents are all hawkish, while the incoming presidents for next year include a neutral and three hawks [5][15] - Trump faces challenges in altering the appointments of regional Fed presidents through the board, making it difficult to change the FOMC's policy stance [6][16]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda Kazuo indicated that the continued weakness of the yen may further increase inflation, as import prices rise due to the yen's depreciation, leading companies to be more willing to raise wages and product prices [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implications - Ueda emphasized that the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on prices is more significant than in the past, necessitating the central bank to remain highly vigilant [1] - There is a growing inclination towards supporting an interest rate hike in December, especially if Ueda votes in favor, aligning with two hawkish committee members who called for a rate increase in the October meeting [1] Group 2: Committee Dynamics - Committee member Koeda Junko expressed hawkish views, indicating rising concerns about inflation risks within the policy-making body [1] - Although Deputy Governor Iwata Noriyuki maintained the status quo in the last meeting, he is still viewed as leaning towards hawkish policies [1] - Currently, only Noguchi Akira holds a firm dovish stance, while the new member, who is seen as centrist, is expected to align with the mainstream opinion led by Ueda [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership, particularly the retirement of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, may lead to a more dovish stance in monetary policy, influencing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) towards potential interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic announced his retirement effective February next year, leaving a key position currently held by a hawkish member [1]. - The appointment of a more dovish successor could shift the FOMC's stance towards further rate cuts, despite Bostic's non-voting status until 2027 [1]. - The Federal Reserve Board is expected to approve the reappointment of all 12 regional Fed presidents for new five-year terms starting March 1 [1]. Group 2: Potential Impact of Supreme Court Ruling - A Supreme Court ruling in January regarding the potential dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by Trump could create another vacancy, allowing for the appointment of a new member aligned with lower interest rate policies [2]. - Analysts do not anticipate dramatic changes in the confirmation process for regional Fed presidents, despite the potential for a new appointee [2]. Group 3: Current Voting Members' Stance - All four current voting regional Fed presidents lean towards a hawkish stance, with concerns about inflation remaining high [4][5]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem support rate cuts but emphasize caution due to inflation concerns [5]. - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee express higher thresholds for further rate cuts, citing persistent inflation [5]. Group 4: Future Voting Members' Perspectives - Incoming voting members, including the Philadelphia Fed President, may lean hawkish, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressing reservations about further rate cuts [6]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lori Logan also show hesitance towards rate cuts, focusing on inflation issues [6]. Group 5: Expected Divisions within the Committee - The composition of the regional Fed presidents is expected to be more hawkish, while the Board of Governors may lean dovish, leading to potential divisions within the committee [7]. - Three distinct factions are anticipated: a dovish group led by the new Fed Chair and certain governors, a hawkish group from regional presidents, and a more neutral group comprising other governors [7].