(本文来自第一财经) "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：美联储的会议纪要通常不会透露太多新的内容，但它们强化了已公开的 信息：一是根据鲍威尔的新闻发布会，7月会议上委员会整体情绪偏鹰派（至少与市场先比而言）；二 是数据与预测的依赖性显现，即在8月1日就业报告公布后，更多官员对9月降息表现出开放态度。 来源：第一财经 ...

美联储理事库格勒(Adriana Kugler)周五出人意料地宣布将于8月8日提前辞职，这意味着美 国总统特朗普将能比预期更早地，为这一至关重要的美联储理事席位寻找继任者，乃至借此 机会更深入地插手美联储事务…… 库格勒的任期原定于1月31日结束，她是由美国前任总统拜登任命的。 "能够在美联储理事会任职，是我一生中的莫大荣幸，"库格勒在提交的辞职信中写道。该 信目前已在美联储官网发布，但未说明她提前离职的具体原因。信中特别提到，"能在实现 抑制通胀与维持强劲韧性劳动力市场的双重使命关键时期履职，我深感荣幸。" 值得一提的是，库格勒本周三就已极其不同寻常地缺席了美联储7月议息会议，同时并未安 排其他人替她投票，美联储称其因"私人事务"请假。 而在本周的议息会议上，当联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)对维持利率不变的决议进行表决 时，则出现了多达两名理事持反对意见的罕见局面——这是1993年以来的首次。 对此，美国特朗普周五下午对记者表示，"我认为库格勒的辞职，是因为她与美联储主席鲍 威尔在利率问题上存在分歧。美联储理事会现在有了一个空缺席位，我对此感到非常高 兴。" 不过，库格勒提前辞职的真相，是否真如向来口无遮拦 ...

Core Viewpoint - Christopher Waller is recognized as the most suitable candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, balancing between hawkish and dovish stances while adhering to data-driven monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Waller's Qualifications and Market Perception - Waller has gained broad recognition in the market and policy circles for his leadership and economic judgment, making him a trusted figure who aligns with Trump's desire to lower the 10-year Treasury yield [1]. - His approach to monetary policy is characterized by a focus on data, avoiding extreme positions, which has led to a favorable perception among market participants [2][4]. - Waller's communication style, utilizing scenario analysis, enhances market understanding of the Fed's policy responses, further solidifying his reputation as a reliable policymaker [4]. Group 2: Economic Insights and Predictions - Waller has demonstrated a keen ability to anticipate economic trends, such as recognizing the persistent nature of inflation in 2021, which many mainstream forecasters overlooked [2]. - He proposed that it is possible to control inflation through interest rate hikes without triggering massive unemployment, a theory that has proven to align closely with subsequent economic developments [2]. - In discussions about tariffs, Waller acknowledged their inflationary impact but suggested that the effects would be temporary, supporting the case for potential interest rate cuts starting in July [3]. Group 3: Political Dynamics and Strategic Value - Waller's previous appointment by Trump and his non-confrontational stance towards the administration make him a politically acceptable choice for the presidency of the Fed [4][5]. - His nomination could facilitate a smooth transition of leadership, allowing Powell to retire with confidence, as Waller's policies are seen as stable and professional [6]. - The potential for Waller to maintain market trust and avoid significant increases in long-term interest rates aligns with Trump's economic agenda, emphasizing low rates and low inflation [6].

Core Viewpoint - If ECB President Lagarde expresses skepticism about further rate cuts at the central bank forum, the euro may appreciate further [1] Group 1 - Analysts from Monex Europe suggest that Lagarde's comments may lean towards a "hawkish" stance, which could lead the market to reduce rate cut bets and support the euro [1] - There is skepticism regarding whether Lagarde's monetary policy views will undergo a clear and significant shift, but it is expected that she will outline the conditions necessary to maintain current policy levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's situation this summer is particularly challenging, with expectations for fewer interest rate cuts this year due to persistent inflation and potential policy changes from the Trump administration [1] Economic Predictions - The last economic forecast from the FOMC was released on March 2, prior to Trump's tariff announcement, which has since disrupted the economic outlook [1] - The FOMC had previously anticipated two interest rate cuts in 2025, but analysts now suggest that only one cut in 2025 would not be surprising [1] Market Reactions - Bond futures traders have significantly delayed their expectations for interest rate cuts this year [1] - A scenario where the dot plot indicates no rate cuts would be interpreted as "quite hawkish" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming increasingly significant, with potential candidates including Scott Bessent, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Judy Shelton, which may impact the Fed's independence and inflation targets [1][3]. Candidate Profiles - Christopher Waller has been a prominent figure in the Fed, advocating for a dovish stance and suggesting that tariffs will have a temporary effect on inflation, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts this year [2][3]. - Kevin Warsh, previously considered for the Fed Chair position by Trump, has criticized the Fed's quantitative easing policies and is seen as a potential candidate, although he has shown some flexibility in his recent statements regarding interest rate cuts [4][5]. - Judy Shelton, known for her controversial views advocating for a return to the gold standard and opposing Fed independence, could cause significant market volatility if nominated [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming a focal point for the market, with increasing speculation around potential candidates and their implications for monetary policy [1][2][4]. Candidate Analysis - Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, is being pushed by advisors within the Trump administration as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, although the White House has denied these claims [2][4]. - Current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and there is growing interest in who will succeed him [5]. - Other potential candidates include Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve Governor; Kevin Hassett, current Director of the National Economic Council; and Chris Waller, current Federal Reserve Governor [9][10][11]. Market Impact - The concept of a "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" is emerging, indicating that the market may start reacting to the potential candidates as they become more defined [7][8]. - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that Trump's administration may favor a "dovish" candidate who aligns with his calls for interest rate cuts [13]. Candidate Preferences - Kevin Waller is noted for his dovish stance, advocating for ignoring tariff-induced inflation to prioritize interest rate cuts, which aligns with Trump's preferences [13][15]. - The report indicates that while all candidates may promise to lower rates, the real challenge lies in implementing such policies effectively [14]. Challenges Ahead - The next Federal Reserve Chair will need to navigate the complexities of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve while addressing political pressures [12][15]. - Candidates from within the government may face heightened scrutiny regarding their ability to uphold the Fed's independence and credibility in achieving inflation targets [15].

Group 1 - The Bank of England's recent policy stance has turned hawkish, significantly reducing expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a June cut dropping from 50% to 4% [1] - Market expectations have shifted towards a greater likelihood of a rate cut in the third quarter, with current bets for an August cut averaging around 16 basis points (64%) [1] - The upcoming inflation reports may influence market expectations, with a potential downward surprise in inflation data possibly shifting sentiment back towards a dovish outlook [1] Group 2 - The short-term impact of the Bank of England's hawkish stance on the British pound is limited, with market focus shifting to the upcoming UK-EU summit, where Prime Minister Starmer aims to promote closer UK-EU relations [1] - The GBP/USD exchange rate has recently fallen below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), indicating a prevailing bearish correction trend despite reaching oversold levels [1] - Any further upward movement in GBP/USD may be capped around 1.3340, with major resistance expected at 1.3405, while current trading is likely to remain within a range of 1.3220 to 1.3320 [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the limited downside potential for gold prices due to the CPI data not increasing "hawkish" concerns [1] - It raises questions about whether bullish forces will enter the market tonight [1] - The focus is on how day traders can seize opportunities in the current market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy statement is more hawkish than expected, indicating concerns about stagflation and uncertainty regarding tariffs [1] Group 1 - Spartan Capital Securities' chief market economist, Peter Cardillo, notes that the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [1] - The Fed's statement suggests a strong commitment to remain on hold until more information is available regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - The current Fed meeting is characterized by significant uncertainty, highlighting the challenges faced by policymakers in navigating economic conditions [1]