Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products may impact shipping companies' pricing behavior, leading to potential upward adjustments in the valuation of the 02 contract [2][3][9] Group 1: Shipping Pricing and Contract Valuation - The 02 contract valuation is expected to face upward revision risks due to the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy [3][9] - Shipping companies' pricing behavior is under scrutiny, particularly regarding Maersk's quotes in the last week of January and potential price increases in February [2][3] - The MSC price for the second half of January is reported at $2840/FEU, remaining stable compared to the first half, while Maersk's quote for the last week of January from Shanghai to Rotterdam is $2700/FEU, reflecting a $100/FEU increase [2][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Seasonal Trends - There is an urgent shipping demand from some solar photovoltaic companies following the policy change, leading to potential export rush [3][9] - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate may disrupt the shipping rhythm for the industry, particularly affecting the 04 contract's seasonal characteristics, with expected increased volatility [3][9] - Historically, April and October are the lowest months for shipping rates, and the recent policy change may alter the shipping volume and actual rates compared to typical years [3][9]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping rates for the MSC in the second half of January remain stable compared to the first half, indicating a potential peak in freight rates [2][8]. Group 1: Freight Rates and Contracts - The EC2602 contract shows that MSC's rates for the second half of January are at $2,840 per FEU, consistent with the first half [2][8]. - Maersk's rate for the fourth week of January from Shanghai to Rotterdam is $2,700 per FEU, reflecting a $100 increase from the previous week, while the rate from Ningbo to Rotterdam is reported at $2,400 per FEU [2][8]. - The PA Alliance's rates for January 16-22 are at $2,600 per FEU, and the OA Alliance's rates range from $2,800 to $2,950 per FEU [2][8]. - The estimated settlement price for the EC2602 contract is projected to be between 1,750 and 1,850 points under pessimistic scenarios, with a focus on price adjustments in the latter half of January [2][8]. Group 2: Future Outlook and Market Conditions - The long-term contracts face pressure due to the anticipated reopening of the Suez Canal, which may lead to downward adjustments in valuations [3][9]. - The SCFI rates for the Shanghai-Europe route during normal years (2017-2019) ranged from $600 to $1,200 per FEU, indicating potential future benchmarks [3][9]. - The CMA FAL1 route is set to fully resume operations in January 2026, while the FAL3 route has begun trial runs [3][9]. - The overall market outlook for the first half of 2026 suggests limited pressure from new large vessel deliveries, with only four vessels (totaling 89,776 TEU) expected [4][9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The valuation center of the February contract is continuously rising, and Maersk's quotes are slightly increasing. The EC2602 contract's valuation continues to climb as online quotes from MSC and Maersk rise in the fourth week of January. The 02 contract's valuation support is estimated to be between 1820 - 1920 points under relatively pessimistic assumptions. Near - term, attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of January [1][5][7]. - Far - month contracts face pressure from the potential reopening of the Suez Canal, which may suppress their valuations, but the extent of the impact remains uncertain. Contracts in the off - season face valuation pressure, while contracts in June and August (slightly peak seasons) still have uncertain prospects. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels (over 17000 TEU) in the first half of 2026 is relatively small [7]. - The strategy suggests a bullish and volatile trend for the February contract, and there is currently no arbitrage opportunity [9]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Futures Prices - As of January 6, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures is 58,675.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 34,329.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1872.70, 1223.80, 1417.00, 1533.20, 1105.30, and 1313.20 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price fluctuations. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote in the third week of January is 1635/2630, and in the fourth week it is 1680/2700. HPL's quotes also change over different periods. OA alliance's offline prices in the first half of January are around 2800 - 2900 dollars/FEU, and the actual freight rates are relatively firm [1][2][5]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. In terms of future delivery expectations, the delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU vessels in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships each year [3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January is 318,600 TEU, in February it is 283,500 TEU, and in March it is 272,400 TEU. There are different numbers of empty sailings and TBNs (To Be Notified) in each month [4]. IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Saudi Arabia has invited Yemeni local armed forces for dialogue, and the Southern Transitional Council has expressed its welcome. The potential reopening of the Suez Canal is expected to impact the freight rates of far - month contracts. Currently, some shipping routes have started to resume operations, such as CMA's FAL1 and FAL3 routes, and Maersk has tentatively resumed its Red Sea route [3][7]. V. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery and settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. In normal years from 2017 - 2019, the SCFI Shanghai - Europe route freight rate was roughly between 600 - 1200 dollars/FEU, corresponding to SCFIS of about 600 - 1400 points [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The February contract is expected to be volatile and bullish. - Arbitrage: None [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation center of the February contract is constantly moving up, and attention should be paid to the opening price of Maersk. The EC2602 contract's valuation continues to rise, and its delivery settlement price basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. In a relatively pessimistic scenario, the delivery settlement price of the 02 contract is estimated to be between 1,750 - 1,850 points, and recent attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of January. - Far - month contracts face pressure from the resumption of navigation in the Suez Canal, and their valuations are suppressed, but the extent is uncertain. Contracts in the off - season face valuation pressure, while contracts in June and August (slightly peak seasons) still face uncertainties. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in the first half of 2026 is relatively small [1][5][6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotations: Different shipping companies' Shanghai - Rotterdam quotations in January show price fluctuations. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk quotes increased from the second week to the third week in January; HPL's quotes also changed in different periods of January and February [1] 3.2 Geopolitical and Supply Analysis - Geopolitical: Saudi Arabia invited local Yemeni armed forces to dialogue, and the Southern Transitional Council welcomed it [3] - Static supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEUs have been delivered in 2025. The delivery expectations of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 are provided. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17,000 + TEU ships from 2027 - 2029 exceeds 40 [3] - Dynamic supply: The monthly average weekly capacity from January to March 2026 is provided, along with the number of empty flights and TBNs in each month [4] 3.3 Contract Analysis - EC2602 contract: The online quotes of MSC and Maersk in the second half of January continued to rise, and the contract's valuation increased. The delivery settlement price reflects the spot price center at the end of January. Under different assumptions, the estimated delivery settlement price range is 1,750 - 1,850 points [5][6] - Far - month contracts: They face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downwards. However, contracts in June and August still face uncertainties. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in the first half of 2026 is relatively small [6] 3.4 Market Data - As of January 5, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures is 58,167 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 33,061 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. The SCFI prices of different routes on December 26, 2025, and the SCFIS prices on January 5, 2026, are also given [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price is gradually becoming clear, with a preliminary estimate between 1600 - 1700 points, and attention should be paid to the actual SCFIS announcement. The EC2602 contract is focusing on the shipping companies' willingness to support prices under high - capacity conditions, and the valuation center is constantly rising. The far - month contracts are facing the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, with the risk of valuation downward revision [4][5][6]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract will fluctuate, and the February contract will fluctuate strongly. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Prices - As of December 18, 2025, the total position of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 60,961.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 31,539.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1668.60, 1108.80, 1270.50, 1441.30, 1042.20, and 1624.40 respectively [7]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price changes. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote in the first week of January is 1570/2520, and HPL's price in the second half of December is 1535/2535, with the quote in the first half of January being 2135/3535 [1]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on December 12 is 1538 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 1780 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2652 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on December 15 is 1510.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 924.36 points [7]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the average weekly capacity for the remaining 3 weeks is 326,000 TEU, with capacities of 386,400, 290,900, and 300,700 TEU in weeks 51, 52, and 53 respectively. In January, the average weekly capacity is 322,700 TEU, and in February, it is 276,700 TEU. There are 4 TBNs in January (all from the OA alliance) and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings (both from the OA alliance) in February [3]. - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 250 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 23, 2025, 75 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.1315 million TEU, and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [7]. 3.4 Supply Chain - The mediation plan for the Gaza cease - fire is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in 2026 is high. If it resumes, it means an increase in effective capacity supply and the risk of further depressing freight rates. Currently, CMA's FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) has fully resumed operation since January 2026, and the FAL3 route has started a single trial run [6]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - There is no direct content in the text about demand and European economy, but the overall shipping market is affected by factors such as the Suez Canal situation, shipping company price - support strategies, and freight volume recovery, which indirectly reflect the relationship between supply and demand and economic conditions [4][5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market demand is gradually improving, and the industry is waiting for Maersk's price offer in January. The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile, while the February contract is expected to be volatile and bullish. The far - month contracts are under pressure from the potential resumption of the Suez Canal [1][9] - The delivery of container ships in 2025 is still at a high level, which may have an impact on the supply - demand relationship in the shipping market [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of December 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts for the container shipping index European line futures was 62,069.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 21,544.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1689.00, 1092.70, 1227.00, 1381.80, 1021.60, and 1653.10 respectively [8] II. Spot Price - On December 5, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1400/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was $1550/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was $2315/FEU. On December 8, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1509.10 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 960.51 points [8] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 4 - week monthly average capacity was 314,700 TEU, with capacities of 334,500, 289,600, 315,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53. In January, the monthly average capacity was 331,700 TEU. In February, the monthly average capacity was 262,900 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in December and 4 TBNs in January, all from the OA alliance. Maersk added a new sailing vessel (MAERSK EINDHOVEN, 13092 TEU) in week 51 [4] - As of December 7, 2025, 245 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.99 million TEU. Among them, 74 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.119 million TEU; 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [8] IV. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026 is relatively high. If the canal resumes, the effective capacity supply will increase, which may further suppress freight rates. Currently, CMA's FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) will fully resume operation starting from January 2026, and the FAL3 route (Europe - Asia) has started a single - trial operation [7] V. Demand and European Economy - The feedback from various surveys shows that the current cargo volume is gradually recovering. The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price may be between 1600 - 1700 points, and Maersk's freight rate is likely to continue to rise at the beginning of January. The 2026 Spring Festival is one month later than in 2025, and there is uncertainty about whether the shipping companies' contract price - holding time will also be postponed [5][7]