FICC日报 | 2026-02-26 马士基3月第二周价格下调，关注其他船司3月份价格跟随情 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK11报价1210/1920、WEEK12周价格1150/1820；HPL3月份上半月 船期报价1535/2535 ，3月下半月船期报价1935/3135. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 3月份上半月船期报价1400/2340；ONE 3月上半月船期报价1940/3035，3月下半月 1940/3035；HMM 上海-鹿特丹 3月份上半月船期报价1783/3136。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹3月份上半月船期报价1459/2593，3月份下半月船期报价2359/3193；EMC 3月 上半月船期报价1665/2530；OOCL 3月份上半月船期报价介于2380-2430. 地缘端：据以色列时报，监测开源飞行追踪数据的分析人士称，美军已开始向中东调动另外六架F-22隐形战斗机， 预计这六架F-22将部署在以色列空军一处基地，昨日已有另外11架F-22战机在那里降落。这六架F-22当天早些时 候从美国起飞，与随行加 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the shipping rates are expected to remain weak before the holiday, with the April and October months typically being the lowest for shipping rates in a normal year [2][9] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products on January 8, 2026, which may disrupt the shipping schedule and pricing strategies of shipping companies [2][9] - Shipping companies are expected to issue price increase notices in March and April, with MSC's March rate rising to $1800/3000, CMA's to $1750/3100, HPL's to $1835/2935, and ONE's to $1620/2535 [2][9] Group 2 - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be gradual, with COSCO management indicating that a full resumption in the Red Sea lacks a clear timetable, potentially taking 3-5 months [3][10] - The current detour has become a new normal for customer supply chains, and COSCO is cautious about returning to the Red Sea [3][10] - In the first half of 2026, only four ultra-large vessels over 17,000 TEU are expected to be delivered, suggesting manageable capacity pressure if the Suez Canal does not resume operations [3][10] Group 3 - There are opportunities for arbitrage between EC2606 and EC2610 contracts, with historical data indicating that the highest shipping rates typically occur in July or August [4][10] - The adjustment of contract months will be implemented starting February 10, 2026, with new contracts EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 being added [4][10] - The market is expected to trade with July as the peak for annual shipping rates based on historical trends [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping rates for the MSC in the second half of January remain stable compared to the first half, indicating a potential peak in freight rates [2][8]. Group 1: Freight Rates and Contracts - The EC2602 contract shows that MSC's rates for the second half of January are at $2,840 per FEU, consistent with the first half [2][8]. - Maersk's rate for the fourth week of January from Shanghai to Rotterdam is $2,700 per FEU, reflecting a $100 increase from the previous week, while the rate from Ningbo to Rotterdam is reported at $2,400 per FEU [2][8]. - The PA Alliance's rates for January 16-22 are at $2,600 per FEU, and the OA Alliance's rates range from $2,800 to $2,950 per FEU [2][8]. - The estimated settlement price for the EC2602 contract is projected to be between 1,750 and 1,850 points under pessimistic scenarios, with a focus on price adjustments in the latter half of January [2][8]. Group 2: Future Outlook and Market Conditions - The long-term contracts face pressure due to the anticipated reopening of the Suez Canal, which may lead to downward adjustments in valuations [3][9]. - The SCFI rates for the Shanghai-Europe route during normal years (2017-2019) ranged from $600 to $1,200 per FEU, indicating potential future benchmarks [3][9]. - The CMA FAL1 route is set to fully resume operations in January 2026, while the FAL3 route has begun trial runs [3][9]. - The overall market outlook for the first half of 2026 suggests limited pressure from new large vessel deliveries, with only four vessels (totaling 89,776 TEU) expected [4][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The February contract is expected to be volatile and bullish. - Arbitrage: None [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation center of the February contract is constantly moving up, and attention should be paid to the opening price of Maersk. The EC2602 contract's valuation continues to rise, and its delivery settlement price basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. In a relatively pessimistic scenario, the delivery settlement price of the 02 contract is estimated to be between 1,750 - 1,850 points, and recent attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of January. - Far - month contracts face pressure from the resumption of navigation in the Suez Canal, and their valuations are suppressed, but the extent is uncertain. Contracts in the off - season face valuation pressure, while contracts in June and August (slightly peak seasons) still face uncertainties. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in the first half of 2026 is relatively small [1][5][6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotations: Different shipping companies' Shanghai - Rotterdam quotations in January show price fluctuations. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk quotes increased from the second week to the third week in January; HPL's quotes also changed in different periods of January and February [1] 3.2 Geopolitical and Supply Analysis - Geopolitical: Saudi Arabia invited local Yemeni armed forces to dialogue, and the Southern Transitional Council welcomed it [3] - Static supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEUs have been delivered in 2025. The delivery expectations of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 are provided. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17,000 + TEU ships from 2027 - 2029 exceeds 40 [3] - Dynamic supply: The monthly average weekly capacity from January to March 2026 is provided, along with the number of empty flights and TBNs in each month [4] 3.3 Contract Analysis - EC2602 contract: The online quotes of MSC and Maersk in the second half of January continued to rise, and the contract's valuation increased. The delivery settlement price reflects the spot price center at the end of January. Under different assumptions, the estimated delivery settlement price range is 1,750 - 1,850 points [5][6] - Far - month contracts: They face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downwards. However, contracts in June and August still face uncertainties. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in the first half of 2026 is relatively small [6] 3.4 Market Data - As of January 5, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures is 58,167 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 33,061 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. The SCFI prices of different routes on December 26, 2025, and the SCFIS prices on January 5, 2026, are also given [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The online quotes of shipping lines such as MSC and Maersk increased in the second half of January, causing the valuation of the 02 contract to rise continuously [1][4][5]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract," including adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change [4]. - The far - month contracts are under pressure from the resumption of the Suez Canal, and their valuations may be revised downward, but there is still uncertainty in the adjustment space. Contracts in June and August, which are relatively peak seasons, still face uncertainty [6]. - The 02 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the unilateral strategy, and there is no recommendation for the arbitrage strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 4, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 54,478 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 26,823 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1801.30, 1166.00, 1367.90, 1500.00, 1060.00, and 1297.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - Shipping lines' online quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route changed in January. For example, Maersk's quote in the second week of January was 1600/2580, and in the third week it was 1625/2610; HPL's quote in the first half of January was 1835/3035, and in the second half it was 2135/3535. MSC's price in the first half of January was 1700/2840, and in the second half it was 1880/3140 [1]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on December 26 was 1690 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2188 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3033 dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on December 29 was 1742.64 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1301.41 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply Static Supply - As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU; 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU [2]. - For ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, the expected delivery in 2026 is 781,200 TEU (53 ships), 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, the expected delivery in 2026 is 210,400 TEU (9 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029 [2]. Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity in January was 318,600 TEU, with capacities of 355,600, 309,400, 330,700, and 278,700 TEU in Weeks 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively. In February, the average weekly capacity was 283,500 TEU, and in March it was 272,400 TEU [3]. - There were 3 blank sailings (2 by the OA Alliance and 1 by the PA Alliance) and 1 TBN (1 by the OA Alliance) in January, 7 TBNs (4 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 4 blank sailings in February, and 3 blank sailings and 7 TBNs in March [3]. 4. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is progressing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026 is relatively high. Currently, CMA's FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) has fully resumed operation since January 2026, and the FAL3 route has started a single - trial operation. Maersk's container ship "Maersk Sebarok" completed its first Red Sea voyage since its withdrawal in January 2024 on December 19, 2025 [6]. 5. Demand and European Economy No relevant detailed analysis content provided in the text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates in the first half of January were relatively strong, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first week of the second half of January [1] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the "Standard Contract for Container Freight Index (European Line) Futures", including adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change [2] - The EC2602 contract follows Maersk's freight rates in the second week of January, and the 02 contract will follow the real - time quotes. The current focus is whether the first half of January is the end of this round of freight rate increases [4] - Far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downwards [5][6] - The strategy suggests a sideways trend for the 12 - month contract and a moderately strong sideways trend for the February contract, with no arbitrage strategy currently [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of December 29, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 at 1822.90, EC2604 at 1169.90, EC2606 at 1374.00, EC2608 at 1497.70, EC2610 at 1054.70, and EC2512 at 1604.80. The total open interest of all container freight index (European line) futures contracts is 62,906.00 lots, with a single - day trading volume of 33,246.00 lots [7] II. Spot Price - On December 26, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1690 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2188 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 3033 US dollars/FEU. On December 29, 2025, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1742.64 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1301.41 points [7] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In January, the average weekly capacity was 306,200 TEU, and in February, it was 274,500 TEU. In January, there were 3 blank sailings and 1 TBN, and in February, there were 7 TBNs and 4 blank sailings [3] - In 2025, 260 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.103 million TEU. As of December 28, 2025, 78 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.175 million TEU, and 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU [7] IV. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is advancing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume navigation in 2026, which may increase the effective supply of capacity and put downward pressure on freight rates [5][6] - Maersk's container ship "Maersk Sebarok" completed its first Red Sea voyage since January 2024 on December 19, 2025, marking its tentative resumption of the Red Sea route [6] V. Demand and European Economy - The freight volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year [4] - The progress of long - term contract signing by OA and PA alliances has accelerated, with the central price of long - term contracts around 1800 US dollars/FEU [4]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - The spot silver price increased by 2.79% to $69.0304 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $69.4549 during trading [1] - The spot gold price rose by 2.48% to a new record of $4449.18 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures climbed 2.16% to $4482.30 per ounce, also a historical high [1] - The rise in precious metals prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions and market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Light crude oil futures for February 2026 increased by $1.49 per barrel, closing at $58.01, a rise of 2.64% [1] - Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 rose by $1.60 per barrel, closing at $62.07, marking a 2.65% increase [1] Group 3: Economic Policy and Federal Reserve - Federal Reserve Governor Milan warned that without further interest rate cuts next year, the U.S. economy could face recession risks, highlighting a divide within the Fed regarding interest rate policy [2] - Milan emphasized that rising unemployment rates should prompt a shift towards a more dovish stance among Fed decision-makers [2] Group 4: European Union Sanctions on Russia - The EU has decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for an additional six months, until July 31, 2026 [8] - Sanctions include prohibiting imports of Russian oil and certain petroleum products, as well as excluding several Russian banks from the SWIFT system [8][9] - The EU continues to provide various forms of support to Ukraine and is prepared to impose additional sanctions if necessary [9]

Market Overview - Silver prices increased by 2.79%, reaching $69.0304 per ounce, with an intraday high of $69.4549, marking a historical peak [3][17] - Gold prices rose by 2.48%, hitting a new high of $4449.18 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 2.16% to $4482.30 per ounce, also a historical high [3][17] - Light crude oil futures for February 2026 rose by $1.49 per barrel to $58.01, a 2.64% increase, while Brent crude oil futures increased by $1.60 per barrel to $62.07, a 2.65% rise [3][17] Influencing Factors - The rise in international precious metal prices is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions and market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which are driving investors towards alternative assets like gold [3][17] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices could reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [3][17] Economic Policy Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan warned that without continued interest rate cuts next year, the U.S. economy could face recession risks, highlighting a divergence in the Fed's internal stance on interest rate policy [4][18] - Milan emphasized that rising unemployment rates should prompt a shift towards a more dovish policy approach among Fed decision-makers [5][18] Geopolitical Developments - The EU has decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for an additional six months until July 31, 2026, which includes prohibitions on importing Russian oil and excluding several Russian banks from the SWIFT system [9][24] - The sanctions cover multiple sectors, including trade, finance, energy, and technology, with the EU committed to providing ongoing support to Ukraine [10][25] Shipping Industry Dynamics - The European shipping index futures saw a significant increase, with the main contract reaching a high of 1900 points, driven by expectations of price increases and geopolitical developments [12][27] - Analysts noted that recent price hikes by shipping companies and increased cargo volumes have led to higher shipping rates, with a notable rise in vessel loading rates [27][28] - The market is currently experiencing a divergence in performance among different contracts, with near-month contracts showing larger price increases compared to further-out contracts, which remain pressured by expectations of capacity oversupply [28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price is gradually becoming clear, with a preliminary estimate between 1600 - 1700 points, and attention should be paid to the actual SCFIS announcement. The EC2602 contract is focusing on the shipping companies' willingness to support prices under high - capacity conditions, and the valuation center is constantly rising. The far - month contracts are facing the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, with the risk of valuation downward revision [4][5][6]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract will fluctuate, and the February contract will fluctuate strongly. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Prices - As of December 18, 2025, the total position of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 60,961.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 31,539.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1668.60, 1108.80, 1270.50, 1441.30, 1042.20, and 1624.40 respectively [7]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price changes. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote in the first week of January is 1570/2520, and HPL's price in the second half of December is 1535/2535, with the quote in the first half of January being 2135/3535 [1]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on December 12 is 1538 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 1780 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2652 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on December 15 is 1510.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 924.36 points [7]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the average weekly capacity for the remaining 3 weeks is 326,000 TEU, with capacities of 386,400, 290,900, and 300,700 TEU in weeks 51, 52, and 53 respectively. In January, the average weekly capacity is 322,700 TEU, and in February, it is 276,700 TEU. There are 4 TBNs in January (all from the OA alliance) and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings (both from the OA alliance) in February [3]. - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 250 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 23, 2025, 75 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.1315 million TEU, and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [7]. 3.4 Supply Chain - The mediation plan for the Gaza cease - fire is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in 2026 is high. If it resumes, it means an increase in effective capacity supply and the risk of further depressing freight rates. Currently, CMA's FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) has fully resumed operation since January 2026, and the FAL3 route has started a single trial run [6]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - There is no direct content in the text about demand and European economy, but the overall shipping market is affected by factors such as the Suez Canal situation, shipping company price - support strategies, and freight volume recovery, which indirectly reflect the relationship between supply and demand and economic conditions [4][5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of MSC in the first half of January continued to rise, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first week of the first half of January [1]. - The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price may be between 1600 - 1700 points, and the actual SCFIS announcement should be monitored [4]. - For the EC2602 contract, attention should be paid to the shipping companies' willingness to support prices under high capacity. If the price - supporting period is extended, the 2 - month contract may be at parity with the 12 - month contract [5]. - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downward [6]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract will fluctuate, and the 2 - month contract will fluctuate with an upward bias, and there is no arbitrage opportunity at present [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price decreased from the third week of December to WEEK52, while HPL's price increased from the second half of December to the first half of January. MSC and other companies also released price increase letters for January [1][2]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Due to the continuous turmoil in the Red Sea, Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched a Cape of Good Hope network, and there is no specific time to change the east - west route to pass through the Red Sea. The US is investigating whether Israel violated the cease - fire agreement [2]. 2. Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity in December was 326,000 TEU, 322,700 TEU in January, and 276,700 TEU in February. There were 4 TBNs in January and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in February, all from the OA Alliance [3]. 3. Contract Analysis - **12 - Month Contract**: The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the three - phase SCFIS on December 15th, 22nd, and 29th. The freight rate center in the first half of December was revised down to around 2100 - 2200 US dollars/FEU, and the final delivery settlement price may be between 1600 - 1700 points [4]. - **EC2602 Contract**: The last trading day is February 9, 2026. The delivery settlement price reflects the spot price center at the end of January. Maersk and MSC have announced price increase letters for January, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first half of January and the maintenance of high freight rates [5]. - **Far - Month Contracts**: The probability of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation in 2026 is high, which will increase the effective capacity supply and suppress the far - month contract freight rates and valuations [6]. 4. Market Data - As of December 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 63,961 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 38,062 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied [7]. - In 2025, 250 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 23, 2025, 75 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU were delivered [7].