Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 1st, the shipping market was affected by news that the US Court of Appeals ruled Trump's tariff increase illegal, and there was concentrated short - position reduction after the opening. The freight rate index SCFIS closed at 1773.6 points, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9%, indicating an accelerated decline in freight rates at the end of August [8]. - The overall market loading rate remains above the warning line, and shipping companies' profit margins are still considerable at the current FAK level, so they have no intention to increase the number of blank sailings. The freight rate center in the second week of September has dropped to around $2000 - 2100/FEU, and there may be a further reduction of $300 - 400/FEU in late September. The freight rate trend in October depends on the blank - sailing intensity [10]. - Subjectively, it is believed that the probability of the freight rate in October falling below the low of $1700/FEU in May is high, and the valuation of the 2510 contract may be below 1247.05 points. If the loading rate further declines and the FAK freight rate approaches the shipping companies' cash - flow cost line of $1300 - 1600/FEU, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of sailings, and the further downward space for freight rates may be limited [10]. - In terms of strategies, pay attention to the long - spread opportunities between the 12 - 04 and 02 - 04 contracts, and consider lightly going long on the 2512 contract around 1500 points [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance of Container Shipping Index (European Routes) - The container shipping index (European routes) showed strong performance yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1291.4 points, up 1.53%, with a reduction of 989 lots; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1650.9 points, up 5.01%, with a reduction of 828 lots [8]. 2. Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS index closed at 1773.6 points, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9%, lower than expected, indicating an accelerated decline in freight rates at the end of August [8]. - The SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, a decrease of 2.6%; the SCFI for the European route was $1481/TEU, a decrease of 11.2%; the SCFI for the US - West route was $1923/FEU, an increase of 17.0% [1]. 3. European Basic Port Freight Rates - In the second week of September, the freight rates for European basic ports remained in the range of $1900 - 2200/FEU, with an average FAK of about $2080/FEU, and the freight rate center for container volume/SPOT decreased by $100/FEU [9]. 4. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - In September, the number of blank sailings remained unchanged at 6, and there were no pending voyages. The average weekly capacity reached 298,000 TEU/week, a 6% decrease from August, significantly lower than the 14% decrease during the same period in 2024. In October, the number of pending voyages remained at 5, and there were 6 blank sailings. Without considering pending voyages, the average weekly capacity was 287,000 TEU/week [9]. - The overall market loading rate in late August was around 95%. Shipping companies generally relaxed restrictions on low - price contract bookings and special offers for large - volume shipments, which intensified price competition, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the market will continue until the end of September [9]. 5. Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted index of European routes stopped falling on September 10th. There was a short - term speculation on the US - West port strike in late September. After the strike was resolved during the National Day holiday, the market gave back the "strike" premium on the first trading day after the holiday. Shipping companies successively announced price increases in November and December, with the peak freight rate occurring in the first week of December [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) showed weak performance, with the main 2510 contract closing at 1285.0 points, a decline of 3.31%, and an increase of 523 lots in positions; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1571.0 points, a decline of 3.85%, and an increase of 1880 lots in positions [8]. - In the short - term, the futures price is oscillating downward due to the expected decline in spot prices. In the medium - term, if the loading rate further drops and FAK freight approaches the shipping companies' cash - flow cost line of 1300 - 1600 dollars/FEU, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of voyages, and the further downward space of freight may be limited [11]. - The strategy is to stop profit on short positions of 2510 at low prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of 12 - 04 positive spread entry in the next 1 - 2 weeks [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Data | Contract | Yesterday's Closing Price | Daily Change | Yesterday's Trading Volume | Yesterday's Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | Yesterday's Trading Volume/Open Interest | Previous Day's Trading Volume/Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 1285.0 | - 3.31% | 25330 | 54248 | 523 | 0.47 | 0.34 | | EC2512 | 1571.0 | - 3.85% | 8009 | 16197 | 1880 | 0.49 | 0.38 | | EC2602 | 1400.0 | - 3.79% | 1273 | 4668 | 110 | 0.27 | 0.17 | | EC2510 - EC2512 | - 286.0 | | | | | | | | EC2512 - EC2604 | | | | 355.0 | | | | [1] 3.1.2 Freight Rate Index - SCFIS: The European route was at 1990.20 points, a weekly decline of 8.7%; the US - West route was at 1041.38 points, a weekly decline of 5.9% [1]. - SCFI: The European route was at 1668 dollars/TEU, a bi - weekly decline of 8.4%; the US - West route was at 1644 dollars/FEU, a bi - weekly decline of 6.5% [1]. 3.1.3 Spot European Line Prices - Maersk: Departing from Shanghai on September 11, 2025, arriving in Rotterdam on October 20, 2025, with a voyage of 38 days, the price was 1930 dollars/40'GP and 1155 dollars/20'GP [1]. - MSC: Departing from Shanghai on September 14, 2025, arriving in Rotterdam on October 31, 2025, with a voyage of 47 days, the price was 2352 dollars/40'GP and 1406 dollars/20'GP [1]. - Other shipping companies also have corresponding price and schedule information [1]. 3.1.4 Exchange Rate - The US dollar index was 97.88, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.15 [1]. 3.2 Supply - Side Situation - In September, there were no undetermined voyages, and the number of empty voyages was 6. The PA Alliance transferred 2 ships from the US line to the European line. The weekly average capacity in September reached 298,000 TEU/week, a decline of about 5% compared with August, still significantly lower than the capacity decline in the same period in 2024 [10]. - In October, the number of undetermined voyages was 4, and the number of empty voyages was 5. Without considering undetermined voyages, the weekly average capacity was 296,000 TEU/week [10]. 3.3 Demand - Side and Market Situation - In late August, the overall market loading rate was close to 95%. Since the loading rate was still above the warning line and shipping companies' profit levels were still considerable, shipping companies had no action to increase the number of empty voyages [11]. - In September, the freight rate was in a downward trend. Considering the capacity distribution, the downward pressure on freight rates was still large due to the increase in capacity in the second half of the month and shipping companies' need to stock up for the National Day holiday [11]. 3.4 Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted index of the European line stopped falling on September 10. There was a short - term speculation on the US - West port strike in late September. After the strike was resolved during the National Day, the premium was given back. Then, shipping companies announced price increases, with Maersk announcing a price increase to 4500 dollars/FEU effective from November 4, and the actual price in early November was around 4000 dollars/FEU [12]. - In years when the Spring Festival was late, the December contract still had a certain premium over the October contract, but the February contract was not necessarily a weak contract [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European route) is expected to continue its weak oscillation. The freight rate in September is on a downward trend, with a possible slowdown in the decline in the second week, but the downward pressure on freight rates in the second half of the month is still significant. In the short term, the spot market is expected to remain weak; in the medium term, if the loading rate further declines and the FAK freight rate approaches the shipping company's cash - flow cost line, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of voyages, and the further downward space for freight rates may be limited [7]. - For the 2510 contract, it is recommended to close short positions on dips. For the 2512 and 2602 contracts, it is advisable to wait and see in terms of single - side valuation, and pay attention to the opportunity to enter the 12 - 04 calendar spread trade in the next 1 - 2 weeks [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On August 26, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, and EC2602 were 1,358.0 (up 2.57%), 1,696.7 (up 0.50%), and 1,496.9 (up 0.78%) respectively. The trading volumes were 39,234, 7,289, and 1,070, and the open interests were 54,357, 13,515, and 4,497 respectively. The open interest changes were +102, +220, and +42 respectively [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 1,990.20 points, down 8.7% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,041.38 points, down 5.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,668/TEU, down 8.4% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route index was $1,644/FEU, down 6.5% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: The average FAK in the first week of September was around $2,270/FEU, a drop of $1,100/FEU from the peak in early August. The average values of the Gemini, OA, and PA alliances in the first week of September were $2,170/FEU, $2,330/FEU, and $2,240/FEU respectively. MSC reduced the price by $250 to $2,340/FEU on August 26, and the SPOT price was reported at $2,140/FEU [5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In September, the number of undetermined ships decreased by 1 to 1, and the number of blank sailings decreased by 1 to 5. The weekly average capacity in September was slightly revised up from 29.7 to 30.0 million TEU/week. The capacity in September decreased by about 6% compared with August, significantly lower than the 14% decline in the same period in 2024. In the second week of September, the capacity reduction was relatively large, and the decline in the freight rate center is expected to slow down. In October, the number of undetermined ships remained at 6, and the number of blank sailings remained at 4. Without considering undetermined voyages, the weekly average capacity was 29.1 million TEU/week [6]. - **Demand Side**: At the end of the month, the cargo - collecting situations of shipping companies varied. Maersk's cargo - collecting results were better than the company's target due to significant and early price cuts in the 35th week. The long - term contract customers of COSCO decreased, and the cargo - collecting pressure on some voyages at the end of the month increased significantly [6]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, due to the expected decline in spot prices, the futures price oscillated downward, and the discount of the 2510 contract decreased from 22% to 18%. In the medium term, if the loading rate further declines and the FAK freight rate approaches the shipping company's cash - flow cost line of $1,300 - 1,600/FEU, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of voyages, and the further downward space for freight rates may be limited [7]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions of the 2510 contract on dips. Wait and see for the single - side valuation of the 2512 and 2602 contracts, and pay attention to the opportunity to enter the 12 - 04 calendar spread trade in the next 1 - 2 weeks [9]. 3.4 Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted index of the European route stopped falling on September 10. There was a short - term speculation about the strike at US - West ports in late September. After the strike was resolved during the National Day holiday, the premium of the "strike" was given back on the first trading day after the holiday. On the second trading day, the market started to trade the shipping company's price increase announcement. Maersk announced a price increase to $4,500/FEU effective from November 4, and the actual price increase in early November was around $4,000/FEU. Subsequently, shipping companies announced price increases in late November, early December, and late December. The peak freight rate appeared in the first week of December [8].

2025 年 8 月 25 日 资料来源：同花顺 iFind，Geek Rate，公司官网，国泰君安期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 集运指数（欧线）：弱势震荡 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2508 | 0.27% 2,127.7 | | 120 | 1,968 | -92 | 0.06 | 0.08 | | | EC2510 | 1,309.0 -1.82% | | 25,350 | 54,255 | -38 | 0.47 | 0.64 | | | EC2512 | 1,661.2 -4.62% | | 8,311 | 13,295 | 1,086 ...