重要信息点评 1、11月30日，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国11月官方制造业PMI为49.2，前值49。非制造业商务活动 指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点。 2、美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%，核心PPI环比上涨0.1%，均较前值明显加速，显示美国通胀在9月重新升 温。同时，美国9月零售销售环比增长0.2%，连续四个月正增长但显著放缓，且低于市场预期，汽车销 售四个月来首次下滑。 3、美国9月耐用品订单初值环比增0.5%，较前值修正后的3%明显放缓。扣除飞机的非国防资本耐用品 订单（核心资本品订单）初值环比增长0.9%，远超市场预期的0.3%，前值由0.4%上修至0.9%。 4、11月24日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平指出，釜山会晤以来，中美关系总 体稳定向好，受到两国和国际社会普遍欢迎，事实再次说明，中美"合则两利、斗则俱伤"是经过实践反 复验证的常识，中美"相互成就、共同繁荣"是看得见、摸得着的实景。双方要保持住这个势头，坚持正 确方向，秉持平等、尊重、互惠态度，拉长合作清单、压缩问题清单，争取更多积极进展，为中美关系 打开新的合作空间。习近平阐明了中方在台湾问题上的原则立场 ...

Group 1 - The new LPR in China remains stable for the sixth consecutive month, with the 1-year and 5-year rates at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [1] - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 119,000 in September, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [1] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for November is at 51.9, a four-month low, while the services PMI is at 55, a four-month high, indicating mixed economic signals [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among officials regarding future rate cuts, with some advocating for a potential cut in December [2] - New York Fed President Williams suggests there is still room for further rate cuts as the labor market cools, while other officials express caution about high asset valuations [2] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have increased, with probabilities rising from 44% to 71% following supportive comments from several Fed officials [13] Group 3 - In the futures market, various commodities experienced price declines, with ICE Brent crude oil down 2.92% and COMEX gold down 0.77% [4] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 86.82 basis points, influenced by deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations and Fed meeting minutes that dampened rate cut expectations [4] - The A-share market saw declines across major indices, with the ChiNext index dropping 6.15%, attributed to falling risk appetite and Fed meeting outcomes [6] Group 4 - The bond market showed mixed movements, with credit bonds slightly rising while interest rate bonds experienced minor fluctuations [10] - U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, particularly the 5-year yield, which fell by 12 basis points, amid mixed economic signals and Fed officials' support for potential rate cuts [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European route) is expected to continue its weak oscillation. The freight rate in September is on a downward trend, with a possible slowdown in the decline in the second week, but the downward pressure on freight rates in the second half of the month is still significant. In the short term, the spot market is expected to remain weak; in the medium term, if the loading rate further declines and the FAK freight rate approaches the shipping company's cash - flow cost line, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of voyages, and the further downward space for freight rates may be limited [7]. - For the 2510 contract, it is recommended to close short positions on dips. For the 2512 and 2602 contracts, it is advisable to wait and see in terms of single - side valuation, and pay attention to the opportunity to enter the 12 - 04 calendar spread trade in the next 1 - 2 weeks [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On August 26, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, and EC2602 were 1,358.0 (up 2.57%), 1,696.7 (up 0.50%), and 1,496.9 (up 0.78%) respectively. The trading volumes were 39,234, 7,289, and 1,070, and the open interests were 54,357, 13,515, and 4,497 respectively. The open interest changes were +102, +220, and +42 respectively [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 1,990.20 points, down 8.7% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,041.38 points, down 5.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,668/TEU, down 8.4% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route index was $1,644/FEU, down 6.5% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: The average FAK in the first week of September was around $2,270/FEU, a drop of $1,100/FEU from the peak in early August. The average values of the Gemini, OA, and PA alliances in the first week of September were $2,170/FEU, $2,330/FEU, and $2,240/FEU respectively. MSC reduced the price by $250 to $2,340/FEU on August 26, and the SPOT price was reported at $2,140/FEU [5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In September, the number of undetermined ships decreased by 1 to 1, and the number of blank sailings decreased by 1 to 5. The weekly average capacity in September was slightly revised up from 29.7 to 30.0 million TEU/week. The capacity in September decreased by about 6% compared with August, significantly lower than the 14% decline in the same period in 2024. In the second week of September, the capacity reduction was relatively large, and the decline in the freight rate center is expected to slow down. In October, the number of undetermined ships remained at 6, and the number of blank sailings remained at 4. Without considering undetermined voyages, the weekly average capacity was 29.1 million TEU/week [6]. - **Demand Side**: At the end of the month, the cargo - collecting situations of shipping companies varied. Maersk's cargo - collecting results were better than the company's target due to significant and early price cuts in the 35th week. The long - term contract customers of COSCO decreased, and the cargo - collecting pressure on some voyages at the end of the month increased significantly [6]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, due to the expected decline in spot prices, the futures price oscillated downward, and the discount of the 2510 contract decreased from 22% to 18%. In the medium term, if the loading rate further declines and the FAK freight rate approaches the shipping company's cash - flow cost line of $1,300 - 1,600/FEU, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of voyages, and the further downward space for freight rates may be limited [7]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions of the 2510 contract on dips. Wait and see for the single - side valuation of the 2512 and 2602 contracts, and pay attention to the opportunity to enter the 12 - 04 calendar spread trade in the next 1 - 2 weeks [9]. 3.4 Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted index of the European route stopped falling on September 10. There was a short - term speculation about the strike at US - West ports in late September. After the strike was resolved during the National Day holiday, the premium of the "strike" was given back on the first trading day after the holiday. On the second trading day, the market started to trade the shipping company's price increase announcement. Maersk announced a price increase to $4,500/FEU effective from November 4, and the actual price increase in early November was around $4,000/FEU. Subsequently, shipping companies announced price increases in late November, early December, and late December. The peak freight rate appeared in the first week of December [8].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for US equities, expecting them to outperform European equities, with a consensus on shorting the dollar [18][20]. Core Insights - The USDCNH is projected to reach 7.10 in the next 2-3 months, driven by recent trends in the US-China trade relationship and currency movements [12][14]. - There is a strong consensus among investors for shorting the dollar, with expectations for EURUSD to end the year in the 1.15 - 1.25 range [24][23]. - The report highlights a rebound in AI-related investments, with 66% of respondents maintaining or increasing their positions in the "Mag 7" stocks [22]. - The Australian dollar (AUD) forecast has been revised upward to 0.68, influenced by urban stimulus speculation in China's property market [29][30]. Summary by Sections Currency and FX Insights - The report notes a significant washout in the Brazilian real (BRL) due to tariff headlines, but the impact on Brazil's economy is expected to be limited as trade with the US represents less than 2% of GDP [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a downside in USDCNH, with recent movements indicating a new YTD low in USDCNY [5][12]. - Hedging costs are at their lowest of the year, suggesting favorable conditions for currency trades [8]. Economic Activity and Forecasts - Industrial production in China is expected to grow by 5.9% year-on-year in June, reflecting improved export growth and manufacturing conditions [45][46]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to rebound to 4.3% year-on-year in June, supported by government bond issuance and construction activity [47][48]. - Retail sales growth is anticipated to decline to 4.6% year-on-year in June, indicating potential headwinds for the second half of the year [49][50]. - The GDP growth forecast for Q2 has been slightly upgraded to 3.5% quarter-on-quarter annualized, while the Q3 forecast has been downgraded to 2.5% [51][52].

Group 1 - The Trump administration's tariffs faced legal challenges, with a federal appeals court temporarily halting a lower court's ruling that blocked several tariff orders [2] - The U.S. stock market showed positive performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.28%, Nasdaq up 0.39%, and S&P 500 up 0.4% [3][5] - Major Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increasing by 1.44% [4] Group 2 - The White House indicated that a judge's ruling on tariffs would be overturned, and multiple trade agreements are nearing completion [8] - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee suggested that if trade policies revert to pre-tariff conditions, there could be room for interest rate cuts [9][10] - Goldman Sachs predicted gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-next year, viewing gold as a safer hedge compared to Bitcoin [11] Group 3 - Nvidia's CEO plans to sell up to 6 million shares, potentially worth around $809 million based on recent closing prices [12] - Dell Technologies saw a significant stock increase after reporting Q1 revenue of $23.38 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [13] - Hyundai is considering a 1% price increase on all its U.S. products to mitigate the impact of Trump’s tariffs [14] Group 4 - NIO reported Q1 revenue of 25.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a delivery volume of 92,864 vehicles, up 15.5% [17] - JD.com and Xiaohongshu launched a strategic cooperation plan to enhance business growth for brands and merchants [18] - Tesla plans to deliver its first autonomous Model Y vehicles in June, ahead of schedule [19]

Economic Indicators - In March, China's manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4%, respectively, all showing an increase of 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a clear economic recovery trend[2] - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession from 20% to 35% and lowered the 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2% to 1.5%[2] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of a potential 20% special tariff on all imports by President Trump, the Nikkei 225 index fell over 4%, closing below 36,000 points, marking a decline of over 10% from its peak in December[2] - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.31%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.00%[4] Commodity Performance - NYMEX crude oil rose by 3.42% to $71.40, while LME copper fell by 1.07% to $9,690.00[4] - Agricultural products mostly increased, with notable gains in cotton and sugar, while black metals saw declines, with coking coal down by 1.5%[3] Bond Market - The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds was 1.82%, reflecting a 0.29% increase, while the 2-year yield rose by 2.35% to 1.57%[4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.23%, showing a slight decrease of 0.04%[4] Currency Trends - The U.S. dollar index stood at 104.19, with a minor increase of 0.15%[4] - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar was 7.27, reflecting a decrease of 0.06%[4]

Economic Indicators - In the first two months of this year, China's industrial added value, service production index, retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed asset investment grew by 5.9%, 5.6%, 4%, and 4.1% year-on-year, respectively, accelerating by 0.1, 0.4, 0.5, and 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous year[1] - Real estate development investment decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, while the sales area of new commercial housing fell by 5.1%, with both declines narrowing[1] Housing Market Trends - New home prices in first-tier cities continued to rise month-on-month, while second-tier cities' prices remained flat after a 0.1% increase last month[1] - In February, 18 cities saw month-on-month increases in new home prices, a decrease of 6 cities from the previous month, with Nanjing leading for three consecutive months[1] U.S. Economic Data - U.S. retail sales rose by 0.2% month-on-month in February, falling short of the expected 0.6%, with January revised down to a 1.2% decline, the largest drop since July 2021[2] Commodity Market Performance - Energy and chemical products, black series, and agricultural products generally declined, with caustic soda, coke, and palm oil dropping over 1%[2] - Basic metals mostly fell, with nickel down 1.78%, stainless steel down 0.7%, and zinc down 0.58%[2] Global Asset Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $67.48, down 19.66% year-on-year[2] - COMEX gold rose by 0.55% to $3010.10, with a year-on-year increase of 32.46%[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3426.13, up 11.33% year-on-year[2] Interest Rates and Currency - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield was 1.89%, up 2.48% day-on-day[2] - The U.S. dollar index stood at 103.40, down 1.49% year-on-year[2]