2025 年 8 月 26 日 集运指数（欧线）：或延续弱势震荡 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,358.0 | 2.57% | 39,234 | | 54,357 | 102 | 0.72 | | 0.47 | | | EC2512 | 1,696.7 | 0.50% | 7,289 | | 13,515 | 220 | 0.54 | | 0.63 | | | EC2602 | 1,496.9 | 0.78% | 1,070 | | 4,497 | 42 | 0.24 | | 0.31 | | | EC2510 - EC ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for US equities, expecting them to outperform European equities, with a consensus on shorting the dollar [18][20]. Core Insights - The USDCNH is projected to reach 7.10 in the next 2-3 months, driven by recent trends in the US-China trade relationship and currency movements [12][14]. - There is a strong consensus among investors for shorting the dollar, with expectations for EURUSD to end the year in the 1.15 - 1.25 range [24][23]. - The report highlights a rebound in AI-related investments, with 66% of respondents maintaining or increasing their positions in the "Mag 7" stocks [22]. - The Australian dollar (AUD) forecast has been revised upward to 0.68, influenced by urban stimulus speculation in China's property market [29][30]. Summary by Sections Currency and FX Insights - The report notes a significant washout in the Brazilian real (BRL) due to tariff headlines, but the impact on Brazil's economy is expected to be limited as trade with the US represents less than 2% of GDP [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a downside in USDCNH, with recent movements indicating a new YTD low in USDCNY [5][12]. - Hedging costs are at their lowest of the year, suggesting favorable conditions for currency trades [8]. Economic Activity and Forecasts - Industrial production in China is expected to grow by 5.9% year-on-year in June, reflecting improved export growth and manufacturing conditions [45][46]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to rebound to 4.3% year-on-year in June, supported by government bond issuance and construction activity [47][48]. - Retail sales growth is anticipated to decline to 4.6% year-on-year in June, indicating potential headwinds for the second half of the year [49][50]. - The GDP growth forecast for Q2 has been slightly upgraded to 3.5% quarter-on-quarter annualized, while the Q3 forecast has been downgraded to 2.5% [51][52].

Group 1 - The Trump administration's tariffs faced legal challenges, with a federal appeals court temporarily halting a lower court's ruling that blocked several tariff orders [2] - The U.S. stock market showed positive performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.28%, Nasdaq up 0.39%, and S&P 500 up 0.4% [3][5] - Major Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increasing by 1.44% [4] Group 2 - The White House indicated that a judge's ruling on tariffs would be overturned, and multiple trade agreements are nearing completion [8] - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee suggested that if trade policies revert to pre-tariff conditions, there could be room for interest rate cuts [9][10] - Goldman Sachs predicted gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-next year, viewing gold as a safer hedge compared to Bitcoin [11] Group 3 - Nvidia's CEO plans to sell up to 6 million shares, potentially worth around $809 million based on recent closing prices [12] - Dell Technologies saw a significant stock increase after reporting Q1 revenue of $23.38 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [13] - Hyundai is considering a 1% price increase on all its U.S. products to mitigate the impact of Trump’s tariffs [14] Group 4 - NIO reported Q1 revenue of 25.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a delivery volume of 92,864 vehicles, up 15.5% [17] - JD.com and Xiaohongshu launched a strategic cooperation plan to enhance business growth for brands and merchants [18] - Tesla plans to deliver its first autonomous Model Y vehicles in June, ahead of schedule [19]