Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in China's real estate market over the past decade, with many areas experiencing prices returning to levels seen ten years ago, indicating a prolonged downturn in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: Real Estate Investment Trends - Real estate investment in China has seen a substantial decline, with a reported investment of 60,309 billion yuan from January to August 2023, marking a year-on-year decrease of 12.9% [6][11]. - The investment in residential properties also fell by 11.9%, contributing to a broader trend of negative growth that has persisted since April 2022 [6][10]. - The overall investment scale is projected to drop to around 9 trillion yuan for the year, reflecting the largest decline in recent years [11]. Group 2: Sales Performance - The sales of new commercial housing have also seen a significant downturn, with a total sales area of 57,304 million square meters from January to August 2023, down 4.7% year-on-year [13][15]. - The sales revenue for new commercial housing reached 55,015 billion yuan, representing a 7.3% decline compared to the previous year [13][15]. - The decline in sales has been consistent since 2021, with no signs of recovery, and the first eight months of 2023 recorded the largest year-on-year drop in both sales area and revenue [15][16]. Group 3: Regional Disparities - The Northeast region experienced the most significant decline in real estate investment, with a year-on-year drop of 22.9% [16]. - In terms of sales, the Eastern region also faced the largest declines, with a 7.1% decrease in sales area and an 8.1% drop in sales revenue [16]. - The overall trend indicates that all major regions, including East, Central, and West, are experiencing declines in both investment and sales [15][16]. Group 4: Price Trends - The price of second-hand homes in Beijing has seen a notable decline, with reports indicating a drop of 30.7% from peak levels, returning to prices last seen in August 2016 [34][32]. - The overall trend in major cities shows significant price reductions, with Shanghai down 31.6% and Guangzhou down 33.9% from their respective peaks [34]. - Despite new policies aimed at stimulating the market, the price adjustments continue, with a high percentage of listings in major cities being reduced [29][48]. Group 5: Policy Responses - New measures have been introduced in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen to stimulate the housing market, including easing restrictions on home purchases for both single individuals and families [38][42]. - The policies aim to create a more favorable environment for homebuyers, but the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain as the market continues to face downward pressure [45][51]. - The recent policy changes have led to a slight increase in transaction volumes, but the overall sentiment in the market remains cautious [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's real estate market is responding to regulatory changes, with new policies introduced to stimulate housing demand and adjust market dynamics [1][11]. Policy Changes - Shenzhen's new housing policy categorizes the city into three zones: core areas (Nanshan, Futian, and Bao'an New An), peripheral areas (Luohu, Bao'an excluding New An, Longhua, Longgang, Guangming, and Pingshan), and suburban areas (Yantian, Dapeng, and Deep-Shan) [4][5][6]. - The policy allows for unlimited purchases for local residents and non-residents with one year of social security in peripheral areas, while suburban areas have no purchase restrictions for outsiders [6][8]. - Single individuals now have equal purchasing rights as families, allowing them to buy two properties in core areas if they have paid social security for one year [8]. Financial Implications - The distinction between first and second homes has been removed, aligning down payment ratios and loan rates for both categories, effectively lowering costs for second-home buyers [9][10]. - Current mortgage rates for both first and second homes are set at 3.05%, down from 3.45% for second homes, which could save buyers significant interest over time [9][10]. Market Performance - Shenzhen's housing prices have fallen below 60,000 yuan per square meter, with recent data showing a drop to 59,300 yuan in July, marking the second time since last year that prices have dipped below this threshold [16][18][21]. - The overall trend indicates a significant decline in property prices across major cities, with Shenzhen experiencing a 39.6% drop since 2016 [21]. Market Dynamics - The current market environment reflects a broader adjustment phase, with many potential buyers hesitant due to economic uncertainties and previous high prices creating a "demand gap" [37][40]. - The population decline in China, with a reduction of 208,000 in 2023, is expected to further impact the real estate market, as population growth is a key driver of housing demand [46][49]. Long-term Outlook - The recent policy changes are anticipated to have a short-term stimulating effect, but the long-term impact remains uncertain, as the market continues to adjust to economic realities and changing buyer sentiments [33][52].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's real estate market is responding to regulatory changes, with new policies introduced to stimulate housing demand and adjust market dynamics [1][2]. Policy Changes - Shenzhen's new housing policy divides the city into three zones: core area (Nanshan, Futian, Bao'an Xin'an), peripheral area (Luohu, Bao'an excluding Xin'an, Longhua, Longgang, Guangming, Pingshan), and suburban area (Yantian, Dapeng, and Shenshan) [4][5][6]. - In the core area, non-residents must have one year of social insurance to purchase homes, while in peripheral areas, there are conditional limits on the number of properties that can be bought [7][8]. - The suburban areas have eliminated purchase restrictions for non-residents, allowing them to buy freely [8][10]. Market Dynamics - The new policy reflects a shift in the housing market, with a focus on stimulating demand amid declining prices [14][15]. - Shenzhen's second-hand housing prices fell below 60,000 yuan per square meter, marking a significant drop and indicating a broader trend of price adjustments across major cities [15][18]. - The overall housing market is experiencing a downturn, with transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes declining significantly since April [14][21]. Economic Context - The current housing market adjustment is part of a larger trend affecting major cities, with prices in Shenzhen down 39.6% from their peak, reflecting a broader economic recalibration [24][25]. - The adjustment is seen as a necessary response to the disconnect between housing prices and local economic conditions, with many potential buyers unable to afford homes due to high prices [24][40]. Long-term Outlook - The recent policy changes are expected to have a short-term impact, with potential effects lasting from one month to a quarter, but the long-term outlook remains uncertain [33][34]. - The market is characterized by a "demand gap," where high prices prevent many from entering the market, leading to a situation where wealthier individuals are hesitant to invest, and middle-income earners feel priced out [37][41].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector in China has entered a deep adjustment phase, with significant declines in investment and sales, indicating a prolonged downturn in the market [1][36][60]. Group 1: Investment and Sales Data - From January to July, national real estate development investment reached 53,580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%, with residential investment at 41,208 billion yuan, down 10.9% [2][24]. - New commercial housing sales area totaled 51,560 million square meters, down 4.0% year-on-year, with sales revenue at 49,566 billion yuan, a decline of 6.5% [7][24]. - The downward trend in real estate investment began in April, marking a return to double-digit declines [5][10]. Group 2: Regional Performance - All major regions, including the East, Central, West, and Northeast, experienced declines in real estate investment, sales area, and sales revenue [10][12]. - The East region saw the largest drop in both investment and sales, with investment down 14.0% and sales area down 6.2% [12][14]. Group 3: Mortgage and Loan Trends - In the first seven months, personal mortgage loans amounted to 7,918 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3% [22][24]. - The central bank reported a significant reduction in household loans in July, with a decrease of 4,893 billion yuan, indicating a trend of negative growth in mortgage lending since April [15][21]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Consumer Behavior - The market has shifted to a state of observation, with consumers reluctant to commit to purchases due to high prices and economic uncertainty [36][38]. - The concept of "demand gap" has emerged, where high property prices prevent many potential buyers from entering the market [36][49]. Group 5: Long-term Trends and Economic Factors - The real estate market has been in a downward spiral for over four years, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, income stagnation, and demographic shifts [36][44][60]. - The population has been declining, which directly impacts the real estate market, as population growth is a key determinant of housing demand [44][46].