Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market divergence is concentrated in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". The short - term price is easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing an obvious wide - range oscillation pattern. For nickel, the high inventory of refined nickel suppresses the price, but the rising cost of nickel ore and ferronickel provides some support. For stainless steel, the core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand [1][3]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 29, 2026, the main contract 2603 of Shanghai nickel opened at 145,240 yuan/ton and closed at 147,470 yuan/ton, a change of 1.79% compared with the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 783,275 (+378,683) lots, and the open interest was 136,553 (+2,253) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a wide - range oscillating upward trend. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, the risk appetite of global commodities recovered, the non - ferrous sector strengthened as a whole, and capital inflows pushed up the price. LME nickel was strong overnight, providing external support for Shanghai nickel. However, the high inventory of refined nickel suppresses the nickel price, and the demand boost from new energy vehicles is limited [1]. - The nickel ore market remained stable. After several days of continuous price increases, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, and the trading atmosphere became calm. The mine side maintained a firm quotation. There was no new tender price on that day, and the FOB tender price of some mines' 1.3% nickel ore was 40 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the nickel ore premium rose to 28 - 32 US dollars/wet ton in February, and the supply of nickel ore was tight. The approval progress of the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) was slow [2]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 151,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various brands of refined nickel were stable with a slight increase. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 450 yuan/ton to 7,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 46,854 (+2,032) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,470 (+132) tons [2]. Strategy - The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation pattern. The strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 29, 2026, the main contract 2603 of stainless steel opened at 14,500 yuan/ton and closed at 14,585 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 295,945 (-16,622) lots, and the open interest was 113,676 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel followed Shanghai nickel and showed an oscillating upward trend. The strengthening of Shanghai nickel enhanced the cost support of ferronickel. The significant reduction of Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota led to the expectation of supply contraction, and the increase in nickel ore quotation further pushed up the cost, providing bottom support for the stainless steel price. However, the downstream demand was weak, and the actual transaction was light [3][4]. - The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,400 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,350 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 90 to 290 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron was 1,054.0 yuan/nickel point, with no change [4]. Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia is realized and the ferronickel price continues to rise, the cost support will be enhanced, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If the demand remains weak and the inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure. The short - term strategy is mainly range operation, buying low and selling high, and setting stop - losses strictly. The medium - term strategy is to pay attention to policy and demand changes and wait for a clear trend before laying out single - side positions. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

1. Report Sector Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing a downward trend due to margin policy adjustments. The nickel market is facing a tug - of - war between supply contraction expectations and weak demand, with prices highly volatile in the short term. The stainless steel market's core issue is the balance between cost and demand, and prices are also subject to short - term fluctuations [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 147,100 yuan/ton and closed at 144,370 yuan/ton, a - 1.31% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 404,592 (- 118,804) lots, and the open interest was 27,881 (- 2,279) lots. The price showed a downward trend due to the Fed's interest - rate meeting, high refined nickel inventory, and margin policy adjustments [1] - The nickel ore market is stable after price increases, with a calm trading atmosphere. Indonesian nickel ore supply is tight, and the approval of mining work plans and budgets is slow. The spot price of Jinchuan Group in Shanghai decreased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 151,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands decreased [2] Strategy - The market is divided between supply contraction expectations and weak demand. Short - term prices are easily affected by policies and funds, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. The recommended strategy for single - side trading is range - bound operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 14,580 yuan/ton and closed at 14,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 312,567 (- 16,363) lots, and the open interest was 123,373 (- 4,171) lots. The price showed a weak oscillation pattern due to the approaching Spring Festival, reduced market activity, and seasonal weakening of demand. The supply is still sufficient in the short term, and the inventory decline has slowed down [3][4] - The downstream restocking demand has not been released, and the spot price has decreased with the futures price. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,054.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia is realized and the nickel - iron price continues to rise, the price may maintain a high - level oscillation. If the demand remains weak and the inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure. The short - term strategy is range - bound operations, and the medium - term strategy is to wait for a clear trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, the price is under pressure due to a strong US dollar, high refined nickel inventory, and limited demand from new - energy vehicles, despite cost support from rising nickel ore and nickel - iron prices. The market is in a state of wide - range oscillation, with the short - term price being easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment [1]. - For the stainless - steel market, the core contradiction lies in the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia materializes and nickel - iron prices continue to rise, the cost support will strengthen, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If demand remains weak and inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 147,980 yuan/ton and closed at 146,110 yuan/ton, down 1.87% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 523,396 (- 207,084) lots, and the open interest was 40,119 (- 19,164) lots. The strong US durable goods order data strengthened the US dollar index, which suppressed the prices of commodities denominated in US dollars. The London nickel closed down 0.64%, dragging down the opening performance of Shanghai nickel. Additionally, with the approaching Spring Festival, market funds' risk - aversion sentiment increased, and speculative funds gradually left the market, further intensifying the price correction pressure. High refined nickel inventory also put pressure on the nickel price [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market remained stable overall. After several days of continuous price increases, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, and the market trading atmosphere became calm. Mine owners maintained firm quotes based on previous high - price transactions. Some mines' FOB tender price for 1.3% nickel ore was 39.5 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the nickel ore premium for February was being negotiated, and the benchmark price for the first half of February was expected to rise by 2 - 3 US dollars. The ESDM began to approve the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB), and the supply of Indonesian nickel ore remained tight [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 151,300 yuan/ton, down 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and the overall transaction was average. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 250 yuan/ton to 6,750 yuan/ton, and the premium of imported nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton, with the nickel bean premium at 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 42,499 (- 18) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,726 ( + 174) tons [2]. Strategy - The market divergence focuses on the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". Short - term prices are easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for spread trading, cross - variety trading, cash - futures arbitrage, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 27, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 14,725 yuan/ton and closed at 14,540 yuan/ton, down 1.26%. The market trading and open interest both contracted, showing obvious weak characteristics. The strong US dollar suppressed commodities, and the weakening of London nickel dragged down the cost support of stainless steel. The synchronous decline of Shanghai nickel further transmitted negative sentiment, suppressing the stainless - steel futures market. Fundamentally, the demand side was unable to support price increases, and although some steel mills had maintenance plans, the short - term supply was still sufficient, and the inventory decline slowed down, highlighting the supply - demand contradiction [3][4]. - **Spot**: The spot price was slightly adjusted downward but remained at a high level overall. Some downstream stocking demand was released, and the market transaction improved compared with the previous period. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 14,500 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market, it was 14,450 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 110 - 210 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,053.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. The short - term strategy is range - bound operation, buying low and selling high, with strict stop - loss settings. In the medium term, attention should be paid to policy and demand changes, and unilateral positions should be arranged after the trend is clear. The unilateral rating is neutral, and there are no suggestions for spread trading, cross - variety trading, cash - futures arbitrage, or options trading [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, the market divergence lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality", with short - term prices being easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. For the stainless - steel market, the core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia materializes and the ferronickel price continues to rise, the cost support will strengthen, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If demand remains weak and inventories are high, the price may face downward pressure [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 26, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 149,880 yuan/ton and closed at 145,380 yuan/ton, with a 0.25% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 730,480 (-22,360) lots, and the open interest was 59,283 (-9,313) lots. It showed a pattern of "rising and then falling, wide - range oscillation", rising due to the expected supply contraction in Indonesia and the linkage with LME nickel, but then falling under short - selling pressure [1][2]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market remained stable overall. After continuous price increases in previous days, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, with a calmer trading atmosphere and increased wait - and - see sentiment. The mine end maintained firm quotes. In Indonesia, the market price remained stable, and there was an expectation that the February domestic trade benchmark price (HPM) might be further raised due to the rising nickel price [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 157,300 yuan/ton, up 4,600 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were stable with a slight decline. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 42,517 (450) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 285,552 (1,824) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - Market divergence is concentrated in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". Short - term prices are volatile. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 26, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 14,645 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 365,984 (+18,855) lots, and the open interest was 155,289 (-4,171) lots. It showed a pattern of "rising and then falling, narrow - range decline", rising at the opening due to the cost - side nickel price but lacking upward momentum due to weak downstream demand and light spot trading [3][4]. - **Spot**: Recently, stainless - steel prices have risen, leading to increased downstream price - aversion sentiment. Actual trading was poor. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 14,550 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,450 (+100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was - 140 to - 40 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 7.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,050.0 yuan/nickel point [5]. - **Strategy** - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. Short - term strategy is range - bound operation, high - selling and low - buying with strict stop - loss. Medium - term, pay attention to policy and demand changes and wait for a clear trend before deploying single - side positions. The single - side view is neutral, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].