1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. For nickel, the market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals, and it will likely remain in a range - bound oscillation. For stainless steel, it will follow the nickel price trend and also maintain an oscillatory state due to the influence of macro and policy factors [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 137,080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 134,780 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 290,411 (- 45,931) lots, and the open interest was 164,700 (- 11,544) lots [1] - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Policywise, the Indonesian export tax and nickel ore quota are still uncertain, but they support the price. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the nickel ore shortage continues, and the price of nickel ore is expected to rise. The supply of nickel iron and refined nickel is sufficient, but the cost is stably supported. The production of MHP is hindered, and the price remains strong. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel mills has improved, providing stable demand support. In the new - energy sector, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles meet expectations, but it is in the off - season, with limited month - on - month improvement. Ternary batteries contribute a small increase in demand, while downstream enterprises have weak procurement willingness and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1] Nickel Ore and Spot - According to Mysteel, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore still has room to rise, and the RKAB quota approval progress is slow. The premium of the mainstream pyrometallurgical ore plants is likely to remain stable next month, and some may increase by 1 - 2 dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade ore price still has upward momentum. The price of Philippine nickel ore is weakening, and the traders' quotes are loosening. The 1.3% grade is quoted at 48 - 50 dollars/wet ton, and the CIF receiving price of the 1.4% grade is 71 dollars. Ocean freight may continue to decline, and the cost - side pressure is marginally relieved [2] - The Shanghai nickel price oscillated weakly during the day, and the center of the refined nickel spot price moved slightly downward. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, while that of other brands remained stable, with sufficient overall supply. Market trading became lighter, and downstream enterprises only made rigid - demand purchases, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to chase high prices. The implementation of the Indonesian export tax is uncertain, the cost support at the ore end is stable, the domestic refined nickel production is at a high level, and the spot resources are sufficient. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 1,000 yuan/ton to 3,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,858 (+ 685) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 281,526 (- 48) tons [2] Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai nickel will likely maintain a range - bound oscillation. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is to conduct range - based operations. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main stainless - steel contract was 14,170 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,160 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,510 (- 1,569) lots, and the open interest was 97,783 (- 4,171) lots [3] - Stainless - steel prices mainly follow the nickel price trend and are greatly affected by Indonesian policies and the macro - environment. On the supply side, steel mills maintain high production plans. According to Mysteel statistics, the estimated crude - steel production of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants in March 2026 was 3.6995 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9895 million tons, an increase of 36.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The planned production in April is 3.6847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption peak season, and downstream demand is stable, but it is mainly on - demand procurement without stockpiling. In April, consumption is expected to continue to recover, orders will ease, and inventory is unlikely to rise, providing bottom support for prices [4] - Although the futures market has weakened, the stainless - steel spot market is generally stable, and traders' quotes mostly remain unchanged. Downstream terminals maintain rigid - demand purchases. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 270 - 470 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday remained unchanged at 1,083.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - In the short term, stainless - steel will follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain an oscillatory state. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is neutral. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel variety, due to the supply contraction expectation of nickel ore affected by Indonesian policies and the rainy season, combined with macro - factors, nickel prices are expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillation pattern, but the upside is restricted by high inventory and weak demand, so the strategy is mainly range - trading [1][3] - For the stainless - steel variety, influenced by the macro - economic interest - rate cut expectation and cost - side nickel price support, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern, but also restricted by high inventory and weak demand, with a range - trading strategy [3][4] Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On February 24, 2026, the main nickel contract 2603 opened at 135,500 yuan/ton and closed at 137,950 yuan/ton, a 1.30% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 133,057 (-246,471) lots, and the open interest was 52,788 (-5,370) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening low and rising high, with the price rising rapidly after the opening, reaching a high of 138,970 yuan during the session, and finally closing with a long - upper - shadow medium阳线. The trading volume increased compared to before the holiday. The short - term decline of the US dollar index and the supply disturbance of Indonesian nickel ore supported the nickel price [1] Nickel Ore - After the holiday, the trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market gradually recovered. The Indonesian market had a slight correction due to the benchmark price adjustment, while the price of imported Philippine ore continued to rise, and the domestic market was mainly in a wait - and - see state [1] Spot - On the first trading day after the holiday, nickel prices were strong. Traders' quotes were scattered. The spot of Jinchuan resources in East China was tight, but the premium of the ex - factory price to Shanghai nickel decreased. Some merchants sold at a low premium, and the transaction center shifted down. The premiums of other brands of electrowon nickel were generally stable with a slight increase. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 51,924 (-534) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 287,328 (-378) tons [2] Group 4: Nickel Variety Strategy - Supply - side nickel ore is expected to remain in a contraction state, and nickel prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation pattern. The strategy is mainly range - trading for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Group 5: Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On February 24, 2026, the main stainless - steel contract 2604 opened at 13,900 yuan/ton and closed at 14,085 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 69,117 (-62,780) lots, and the open interest was 89,926 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high and rising high, reaching an intraday high of 14,220 yuan, and finally closing with a long - upper - shadow medium阳线. The trading volume increased compared to before the holiday, and the participation of funds increased. The supply disturbance of Indonesian nickel ore and the rise of nickel prices increased the production cost of stainless steel, and the rise of LME nickel also boosted the confidence of stainless - steel futures bulls [3] Spot - On the first trading day after the holiday, some traders were still on vacation, and the actual trading was light. The spot price followed the futures price increase, and the market confidence was positive. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 14,200 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,150 (+100) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 145 to 345 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,053.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Group 6: Stainless - Steel Variety Strategy - Affected by the macro - economic interest - rate cut expectation and cost - side nickel price support, stainless - steel prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation pattern. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel mining quota has reversed the market's expectation of a "continuous surplus" in 2026, leading to supply - tightening pricing and a sharp rise in nickel prices. The continuous upward trend in the nickel ore market also supports the increase in nickel prices. For stainless steel, it is a passive follow - up rise driven by cost, with weak fundamentals [1][2][3][4] - Near the Spring Festival holiday, both nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices due to the continuous fermentation of nickel ore supply interference and cost - side support [3][4] Summary of Each Section Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 133,350 yuan/ton and closed at 139,360 yuan/ton, a change of 4.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 518,625 (+237,189) lots, and the open interest was 76,440 (-3,802) lots. The main contract showed a strong unilateral upward trend, breaking through the key pressure level of 140,000. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel mining quota was the main reason for the price increase [1] - **Nickel Ore**: Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota is 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, a significant reduction of about 30% compared to 3.79 billion tons in 2025. The reduction of a large - scale mine's quota by over 70% has led to an increase in nickel ore premiums. The supply of nickel ore is tight, and the bottom price of ferronickel is strongly supported. In January, the ferronickel production in Indonesia decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in February [1][2] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 146,700 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was light, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 52,027 (-12) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,750 (0) tons [2] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2604 opened at 13,735 yuan/ton and closed at 14,145 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,583 (+50,518) lots, and the open interest was 100,625 (-4,171) lots. It showed an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, following the rebound of Shanghai nickel, but overall weaker than nickel, being a passive follow - up rise driven by cost [3] - **Spot**: Spot trading basically stopped, and market quotes remained stable. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 160 to 360 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,043.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Near the Spring Festival holiday, the prices of nickel and stainless steel are expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to operate within a range. However, due to the continuous fermentation of nickel ore supply interference, there is some support for the cost side. If the price drops significantly, one can consider buying on dips [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2603 opened at 133,020 yuan/ton and closed at 134,520 yuan/ton, a change of 1.45% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 417,105 (-137,339) lots, and the open interest was 83,976 (-1,500) lots [1] - In the futures market, the Shanghai nickel main contract rebounded after hitting the bottom. The weakening of the US dollar index and the 1.03% increase in LME nickel overnight drove the domestic market sentiment to warm up. The inflow of domestic funds into the non - ferrous metal sector provided liquidity support for Shanghai nickel. After the previous over - decline, short - covering pushed the price to rebound. In addition, the nickel ore price remained stable, there was cost support for nickel iron, and the expectation of production cuts by some high - cost smelters emerged, and the expected marginal contraction of supply supported the price [1] - In the nickel ore market, the overall performance was calm, and the price remained stable. As the Spring Festival holiday approached, market participants gradually decreased, the trading atmosphere became light, and both buyers and sellers were mainly in a wait - and - see state. Domestic factories had high raw material costs and low willingness to purchase nickel ore at the current price. Most factories mainly consumed existing inventories and executed long - term contracts and suspended new spot purchase plans. The Indonesian market also entered a pre - holiday stable period, with no new major transactions or policy news [1] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 143,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Pre - holiday spot trading was light, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel mostly remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 51,721 (447) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,072 (-210) tons [2] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is expected that the price will mainly show a volatile trend. It is recommended to operate within a range. If the price drops significantly, one can consider buying on dips. For single - side trading, it is mainly to operate within a range, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the stainless steel main contract 2603 opened at 13,690 yuan/ton and closed at 13,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 88,272 (-50,600) lots, and the open interest was 41,399 (-4,171) lots [2] - In the futures market, the stainless steel main contract showed a narrow - range shock and a slight decline at the end of the session. The rebound of the Shanghai nickel contract drove the sentiment of the stainless steel raw material end to recover, providing some support for the stainless steel price. The stable nickel ore price and cost support for nickel iron, along with the expectation of production cuts by some high - cost smelters, supported the price [3] - In the spot market, the futures market weakened, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high, mainly purchasing on demand, and inventory depletion slowed down. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 400 to 600 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1,040.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is expected that the price will mainly show a volatile trend. It is recommended to operate within a range. If the price drops significantly, one can consider buying on dips. For single - side trading, it is mainly to operate within a range, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures both showed upward trends on February 4, 2026, with nickel experiencing a significant rebound and stainless steel showing a milder upward movement. Due to large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival, it is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies. However, considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [1][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 135,400 yuan/ton and closed at 137,680 yuan/ton, a change of 3.78% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 481,566 (-181,798) lots, and the open interest was 99,453 (-2,047) lots. The contract showed a strong rebound, maintaining a high - level operation with a significant upward shift in the price center. The previous panic - driven decline led to an oversold situation, creating a need for technical repair. Additionally, the expectation of domestic liquidity easing and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the London nickel market, driving the Shanghai nickel rebound through the linkage of domestic and foreign markets [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic nickel ore market showed a differentiated consolidation trend. Affected by the price correction of downstream products, the CIF quotes in the domestic market slightly declined, and the trading atmosphere was dull. Philippine mines maintained firm quotes and mainly executed previous orders. However, due to limited downstream acceptance, high - priced resources had difficulty in trading, and buyers generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in a slight increase in the actual bargaining space and a decline in CIF prices. In Indonesia, the market price remained stable, and the new benchmark price and premium for the first half of February were still in effect. The market was in an adaptation and wait - and - see period for the new price system, with no new policies or trading information to guide, and overall trading activities were calm [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 145,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was poor, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands mostly increased. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 48,072 (-108) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,314 (786) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies, but considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [3]. - **Single - side**: Mainly range trading [4]. - **Inter - period**: None [4]. - **Inter - variety**: None [4]. - **Futures - spot**: None [4]. - **Options**: None [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 13,620 yuan/ton and closed at 13,825 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 224,029 (+4,598) lots, and the open interest was 59,820 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a fluctuating upward trend, achieving a recovery driven by Shanghai nickel and cost support. The trading volume moderately increased, and the open interest slightly increased. Overall, it was relatively strong, but the rhythm was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel. The previous continuous decline created a need for technical repair. Additionally, the expectation of domestic liquidity easing and the weakening of the US dollar led to a resonance of domestic and foreign market sentiments, driving the stainless steel rebound [4]. - **Spot**: Trading was light but improved compared to the previous period, and pre - festival restocking orders increased. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,100 (+100) yuan/ton, the price in the Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and the premium of 304/2B was 310 to 510 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,030.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies, but considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [5]. - **Single - side**: Mainly range trading [5]. - **Inter - period**: None [5]. - **Inter - variety**: None [5]. - **Futures - spot**: None [5]. - **Options**: None [5].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are in a weak and volatile state due to the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve. For both nickel and stainless steel, it is advisable to focus on range - bound operations considering the large price fluctuations and approaching Spring Festival. However, with the continuous supply disruptions of nickel ore, there is some support at the cost end, and one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is significant [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On February 3, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 132,640 RMB per ton and closed at 134,830 RMB per ton, a - 1.25% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 663,364 (- 144,776) lots, and the open interest was 101,500 (- 9,445) lots. The main contract showed a "low - open, bottom - probing, and oscillating recovery" weak consolidation trend, influenced by the game between macro - sentiment and industrial fundamentals [2] - Macroscopically, the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve overnight led to concerns about liquidity tightening, causing a general decline in commodities. The sharp drop in LME nickel dragged down the opening of Shanghai nickel. In China, the relatively stable macro - policy and rising pre - holiday capital risk - aversion sentiment limited the price rebound [2] - In the nickel ore market, it diverged from the downstream. Affected by overseas macro - news, Shanghai nickel futures adjusted significantly, and the downstream nickel - iron price also回调. But the nickel ore CIF quotes remained high due to the high FOB transaction costs. The CIF transaction price of 1.4% grade nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia reached 58 - 60 US dollars, and the domestic port quotes also rose to a similar level. There was a stalemate in the market as traders held firm on prices based on procurement costs, while downstream nickel - iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced raw materials due to falling product prices and increased profit pressure. The domestic factories' psychological price for 1.4% grade nickel ore was generally 55 - 56 US dollars, resulting in few actual transactions [3] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 143,400 RMB per ton, up 100 RMB per ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 500 RMB per ton to 9,250 RMB per ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at - 50 RMB per ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 RMB per ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 48,180 (1,606) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,528 (0) tons [3] - **Strategy** - It is recommended to focus on range - bound operations. Considering the continuous supply disruptions of nickel ore and cost - end support, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is significant [3] - Unilateral: Focus on range - bound operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3][4] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On February 3, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 13,520 RMB per ton and closed at 13,585 RMB per ton. The trading volume was 219,431 (- 141,131) lots, and the open interest was 67,925 (- 4,171) lots. The main contract showed a "low - open and narrow - range oscillation" weak consolidation trend, with prices difficult to rebound effectively due to the game between cost support, weak pre - holiday demand, and bearish macro - sentiment [4] - Overnight, the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve led to a general decline in commodities, and the sharp drop in LME nickel dragged down the opening of stainless steel. In China, the pre - holiday capital risk - aversion sentiment and the collective decline in the black sector reduced market risk appetite, suppressing price rebounds. On the supply side, some steel mills carried out pre - holiday maintenance, slightly alleviating the supply pressure. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approached, downstream processing enterprises gradually shut down, resulting in cold spot procurement and sales. Although the spot prices of stainless steel tried to hold firm, the actual transactions were limited, and the weak phased demand was the main constraint for price increases [4][5] - In the spot market, the spot quotes were driven down by futures, and actual transactions were poor due to the approaching Spring Festival. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,000 (- 300) RMB per ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 14,050 (- 150) RMB per ton. The 304/2B premium and discount was 490 - 690 RMB per ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 6.50 RMB per nickel point to 1,032.5 RMB per nickel point [5] - **Strategy** - It is recommended to focus on range - bound operations. Considering the continuous supply disruptions of nickel ore and cost - end support, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is significant [5] - Unilateral: Focus on range - bound operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets experienced a collective correction, with significant price drops. For nickel, the decline was driven by macro - tightening expectations, external market falls, high inventory, and panic selling by long - position holders. For stainless steel, the drop was due to cost breakdown caused by the fall in nickel prices, macro - hawkish expectations, and weak pre - holiday demand [1][3] - Although prices are volatile and the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, nickel ore supply disruptions support the cost side. If prices fall significantly, it may be advisable to go long at low prices [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On February 2, 2026, the main nickel contract 2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 138,000 yuan/ton and closed at 129,650 yuan/ton, a change of - 11.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 808,140 (- 204,303) lots, and the open interest was 110,945 (- 21,503) lots [1] - The core drivers for the sharp drop in the nickel futures price were the increase in macro - tightening expectations, the negative impact from the fall in the London nickel market, high inventory, and panic selling by long - position holders. The nomination of Warsh by Trump as the new Fed chairman led to an increase in hawkish expectations, a stronger US dollar, a rise in US Treasury yields, and a general decline in commodities. The high domestic refined nickel inventory and weak pre - holiday stocking demand also put pressure on prices. The high premium of refined nickel over nickel iron led to an increase in the conversion of nickel iron to high - grade nickel matte, further hitting the spot market [1] - In the nickel ore market, in the Philippines, due to the high - price transactions of northern mines last week, traders were firm in their price - holding stance, pushing up the CIF price negotiation center in China. The price of 1.3% grade nickel ore rose to $48/wet ton, and the price range of 1.5% grade nickel ore reached $59 - 62. In Indonesia, the HPM benchmark price in the first phase of February increased by about $2 - 3, and the market premium rose by another $3 - 5, resulting in a one - time significant increase of $5 - 8 in the cost of mainstream pyrometallurgical nickel ore at the factory. The price of hydrometallurgical ore also rose by $2 - 3 [2] - In the spot market, the sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 143,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was scarce, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 1,500 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 46,574 (- 302) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,528 (- 756) tons [2] Strategy - Given the large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, it is necessary to pay attention to position - holding risks. It is recommended to mainly conduct range trading. However, due to the continuous fermentation of nickel ore supply disruptions, which support the cost side, if the price drops significantly, one can consider going long at low prices [3] - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range trading; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On February 2, 2026, the main stainless - steel contract 2603 opened at 14,100 yuan/ton and closed at 13,420 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 360,562 (- 47,479) lots, and the open interest was 83,445 (- 4,171) lots [3] - The core drivers for the sharp drop in the stainless - steel futures price were the cost breakdown caused by the fall in the Shanghai nickel price, the increase in macro - hawkish expectations, and weak pre - holiday demand. The fall in the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange led to a联动 decline in the prices of nickel iron and high - grade nickel matte, significantly weakening the cost support for stainless steel. The cost premium brought by the previous rise in nickel prices quickly declined, forcing the futures price to fall. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic stainless - steel inventory has been increasing for two consecutive weeks, with ample supply and weak pre - holiday stocking demand from downstream, and high inventory has suppressed prices. The spot market transactions were weak, and traders sold at discounted prices, leading to a weakening of the spot - futures linkage [3][4] - In the spot market, due to the weakening of the futures market, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and they mainly purchased on - demand, resulting in a slowdown in inventory depletion. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,300 (- 100) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 14,200 (- 150) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 460 to 760 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 15.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,039.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Given the large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, it is necessary to pay attention to position - holding risks. It is recommended to mainly conduct range trading. However, due to the continuous fermentation of nickel ore supply disruptions, which support the cost side, if the price drops significantly, one can consider going long at low prices [4] - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range trading; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4]

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated February 2, 2026 [1] Core Views Bullish Factors - Indonesia's production cut expectation: The Indonesian government is expected to lower the nickel ore quota in 2026, which may lead to a global nickel supply shortage and benefit prices [3] - New energy vehicle demand: The automobile production and sales data in January were good, and policy measures may stimulate demand, supporting nickel prices [3] Bearish Factors - Domestic inventory pressure has increased [3] - The Shanghai nickel futures show a weak trend technically [3] Trading Advice - Shanghai nickel showed a "sideways and weak" trend last week. Although the expectation of production cuts in Indonesia boosted sentiment, the significant increase in inventory turned market sentiment bearish. It is recommended to monitor subsequent inventory changes [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - Shanghai nickel main contract: The latest price was 140,000 yuan/ton, down 5,380 yuan (-3.70%) week-on-week [4] - Shanghai nickel continuous contracts (1 - 3): All showed price declines, with the largest decline of 3.93% in the continuous one contract [4] - LME nickel 3M: The latest price was 17,555 US dollars/ton, down 1,035 US dollars (-3.81%) week-on-week [4] - Open interest: Increased by 73,165 lots to 132,448 lots, a week-on-week increase of 123.4% [4] - Trading volume: Increased by 281,963 lots to 1,012,443 lots, a week-on-week increase of 38.60% [4] - Warehouse receipts: Increased by 4,359 tons to 46,876 tons, a week-on-week increase of 10.25% [4] - Main contract basis: Decreased by 2,370 yuan to 2,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 46.75% [4] Stainless Steel Futures - Stainless steel main contract: The latest price was 14,140 yuan/ton, down 505 yuan (-3%) week-on-week [4] - Stainless steel continuous contracts (1 - 3): All showed price declines, with the largest decline of 3.45% in the continuous one contract [4] - Trading volume: Increased by 42,057 lots to 408,041 lots, a week-on-week increase of 11.49% [4] - Open interest: Decreased by 56,278 lots to 99,011 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 36.24% [4] - Warehouse receipts: Increased by 4,641 tons to 43,579 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11.92% [4] - Main contract basis: Increased by 405 yuan to 630 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 180.00% [4] Spot Prices - Jinchuan nickel: The latest price was 149,900 yuan/ton, down 1,750 yuan (-1.15%) [4] - Imported nickel: The latest price was 142,700 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.35%) [4] - 1 electrolytic nickel: The latest price was 146,150 yuan/ton, down 1,850 yuan (-1.25%) [4] - Nickel beans: The latest price was 145,100 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.33%) [4] - Electrowon nickel: The latest price was 142,600 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.35%) [4] Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory: Reached 70,643 tons, an increase of 4,349 tons [6] - LME nickel inventory: Reached 286,284 tons, a decrease of 186 tons [6] - Stainless steel social inventory: Reached 853 tons, an increase of 8.9 tons [6] - Nickel pig iron inventory: Reached 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons [6] Charts and Data Sources Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Prices - Shanghai nickel futures main contract closing price and LME nickel (3 months) electronic trading closing price trends from 2024 - 2026 [7] - Stainless steel futures main contract closing price trends from 2024 - 2026 [8] Spot Prices of Delivery Goods - Nickel spot average price trends from 2024 - 2026 [10] Primary Nickel Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel monthly production seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [12] - China's total monthly supply of primary nickel (including imports) seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [12] - Domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans) seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [13] - LME nickel inventory seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [13] Upstream Nickel Ore - Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) average price trends from 2015 - 2025 [15] - China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [16] - China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price (national average) trends from 2020 - 2025 [17] - Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price trends from 2021 - 2025 [17] - China's nickel iron monthly production seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [18] - Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [19] Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price trends from 2024 - 2025 [21] - Battery - grade nickel sulfate premium trends from 2021 - 2025 [23] - Nickel bean production of nickel sulfate profit margin seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [24] - China's externally purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel profit seasonality from 2023 - 2026 [24] - China's nickel sulfate monthly production (metal tons) from 2021 - 2025 [25] - Ternary precursor monthly production capacity seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [25] Stainless Steel - China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [27] - Stainless steel monthly production seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [29] - Stainless steel inventory seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [30]

1. Report Sector Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing a downward trend due to margin policy adjustments. The nickel market is facing a tug - of - war between supply contraction expectations and weak demand, with prices highly volatile in the short term. The stainless steel market's core issue is the balance between cost and demand, and prices are also subject to short - term fluctuations [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 147,100 yuan/ton and closed at 144,370 yuan/ton, a - 1.31% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 404,592 (- 118,804) lots, and the open interest was 27,881 (- 2,279) lots. The price showed a downward trend due to the Fed's interest - rate meeting, high refined nickel inventory, and margin policy adjustments [1] - The nickel ore market is stable after price increases, with a calm trading atmosphere. Indonesian nickel ore supply is tight, and the approval of mining work plans and budgets is slow. The spot price of Jinchuan Group in Shanghai decreased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 151,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands decreased [2] Strategy - The market is divided between supply contraction expectations and weak demand. Short - term prices are easily affected by policies and funds, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. The recommended strategy for single - side trading is range - bound operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 14,580 yuan/ton and closed at 14,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 312,567 (- 16,363) lots, and the open interest was 123,373 (- 4,171) lots. The price showed a weak oscillation pattern due to the approaching Spring Festival, reduced market activity, and seasonal weakening of demand. The supply is still sufficient in the short term, and the inventory decline has slowed down [3][4] - The downstream restocking demand has not been released, and the spot price has decreased with the futures price. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,054.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia is realized and the nickel - iron price continues to rise, the price may maintain a high - level oscillation. If the demand remains weak and the inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure. The short - term strategy is range - bound operations, and the medium - term strategy is to wait for a clear trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, the price is under pressure due to a strong US dollar, high refined nickel inventory, and limited demand from new - energy vehicles, despite cost support from rising nickel ore and nickel - iron prices. The market is in a state of wide - range oscillation, with the short - term price being easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment [1]. - For the stainless - steel market, the core contradiction lies in the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia materializes and nickel - iron prices continue to rise, the cost support will strengthen, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If demand remains weak and inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 147,980 yuan/ton and closed at 146,110 yuan/ton, down 1.87% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 523,396 (- 207,084) lots, and the open interest was 40,119 (- 19,164) lots. The strong US durable goods order data strengthened the US dollar index, which suppressed the prices of commodities denominated in US dollars. The London nickel closed down 0.64%, dragging down the opening performance of Shanghai nickel. Additionally, with the approaching Spring Festival, market funds' risk - aversion sentiment increased, and speculative funds gradually left the market, further intensifying the price correction pressure. High refined nickel inventory also put pressure on the nickel price [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market remained stable overall. After several days of continuous price increases, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, and the market trading atmosphere became calm. Mine owners maintained firm quotes based on previous high - price transactions. Some mines' FOB tender price for 1.3% nickel ore was 39.5 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the nickel ore premium for February was being negotiated, and the benchmark price for the first half of February was expected to rise by 2 - 3 US dollars. The ESDM began to approve the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB), and the supply of Indonesian nickel ore remained tight [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 151,300 yuan/ton, down 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and the overall transaction was average. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 250 yuan/ton to 6,750 yuan/ton, and the premium of imported nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton, with the nickel bean premium at 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 42,499 (- 18) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,726 ( + 174) tons [2]. Strategy - The market divergence focuses on the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". Short - term prices are easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for spread trading, cross - variety trading, cash - futures arbitrage, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 27, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 14,725 yuan/ton and closed at 14,540 yuan/ton, down 1.26%. The market trading and open interest both contracted, showing obvious weak characteristics. The strong US dollar suppressed commodities, and the weakening of London nickel dragged down the cost support of stainless steel. The synchronous decline of Shanghai nickel further transmitted negative sentiment, suppressing the stainless - steel futures market. Fundamentally, the demand side was unable to support price increases, and although some steel mills had maintenance plans, the short - term supply was still sufficient, and the inventory decline slowed down, highlighting the supply - demand contradiction [3][4]. - **Spot**: The spot price was slightly adjusted downward but remained at a high level overall. Some downstream stocking demand was released, and the market transaction improved compared with the previous period. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 14,500 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market, it was 14,450 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 110 - 210 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,053.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. The short - term strategy is range - bound operation, buying low and selling high, with strict stop - loss settings. In the medium term, attention should be paid to policy and demand changes, and unilateral positions should be arranged after the trend is clear. The unilateral rating is neutral, and there are no suggestions for spread trading, cross - variety trading, cash - futures arbitrage, or options trading [5].