孙兴杰 二战结束至今长达80年的"长和平"正在面临走向终结的危险吗？美国哈佛大学教授格雷厄姆·艾利森和 美国参谋长联席会议前副主席小詹姆斯·温尼费尔德不久前在美国《外交》双月刊网站联合撰文，表达 这样的担忧。这篇题为《最长和平的终结？》的文章提到，过去80年是自罗马帝国以来大国之间没有发 生战争的最长时期，同时援引亨利·基辛格生前的提醒，即大国和平不太可能持续整整一个世纪。放在 近现代国际关系史尤其是20世纪以来的国际关系史中看，战后80年总体和平的确非同寻常，至少冷战时 期，很多人想不到和平能够持续如此之久。如今，基辛格和艾利森们对世界和平脆弱性的警示，不能被 认为是杞人忧天，生活在和平环境的人们需要居安思危，更要思考战后世界和平的支柱何在以及如何得 以维持。 对于战后以来"长和平"可能终结的原因，艾利森和温尼费尔德提出五个突出因素。其中两个与美国内政 外交现状直接相关，一是美国国内政治分裂严重，尤其在是否以及如何维护全球秩序问题上摇摆不定； 二是在军事上过度扩张，21世纪伊始美军就接连在阿富汗和伊拉克发动两场战争即是典型例证。另外两 个因素则是大国实力对比发生变化，美国眼中的"竞争对手"使其在战后尤其冷战 ...

Group 1 - The G7 summit will take place from June 15 to 17 in Canada, with significant divisions among member countries on issues like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and climate change, leading to a lack of consensus on a joint communiqué [1][4] - Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau aims to ease tensions with U.S. President Trump and promote trade and security negotiations, avoiding a repeat of the contentious 2018 summit where Trump refused to sign the joint communiqué [1][3] - The summit will feature discussions on various topics, including artificial intelligence, energy security, and global conflicts, with leaders from non-G7 countries like Ukraine, India, Brazil, and Mexico also participating [6][7] Group 2 - The trend of shorter final joint statements has emerged since the 2018 summit, reducing negotiation time and minimizing contentious wording among member countries [7] - The Trump administration's approach has shifted G7's focus back to its original purpose of promoting global economic stability and growth, as indicated by the current agenda set by Canada [7]

Core Viewpoint - China's unilateral opening is a remarkable achievement in modern history, representing a creative breakthrough in the logic and rules of globalization [1][2]. Group 1: China's Unilateral Opening - China's unilateral opening breaks the traditional "reciprocal opening" principle of Western-led globalization, showcasing a proactive approach to lowering tariffs from an average of 15.3% to 7.4% since joining the WTO [1]. - By the end of 2023, China has attracted a total foreign investment of $3.3 trillion, with 660,000 foreign enterprises operating in the country, maintaining its position as the top destination for foreign investment among developing countries for 30 consecutive years [1]. Group 2: Historical Context and Strategic Decision - The decision for unilateral opening was made during a time of significant challenges, including a weak industrial base and low technological levels, reflecting the courage and wisdom of the Chinese government [2]. - This approach is not a passive response to external pressures but a strategic decision based on a deep understanding of international economic dynamics and domestic development needs [2]. Group 3: Continuation of Traditional Open Ideals - China's unilateral opening is an extension and elevation of its traditional open mindset, which has been evident throughout history, from the Silk Road to Zheng He's voyages [3]. - This modern unilateral opening embodies the spirit of openness and inclusivity, linking China's development closely with global progress and challenging traditional protectionist barriers [3]. Group 4: New Model for Global Governance - China's unilateral opening offers a new model for global governance by moving away from "zero-sum" thinking, demonstrating that market openness can lead to "incremental win-win" outcomes [4]. - Initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP reflect China's commitment to regional cooperation and participation in global governance, contributing to the UN's 2035 global development agenda [4]. Group 5: Future Directions of Unilateral Opening - Future developments in China's unilateral opening will transition from "factor flow" to "rule-leading," focusing on institutional openness and establishing standards in emerging fields like digital economy and green trade [5]. - The approach will evolve from "economic and trade openness" to "civilizational dialogue," enhancing cultural exchanges and soft power to counter narratives of "China threat" [5]. - China's unilateral opening will shift from merely adopting international rules to contributing Chinese solutions, promoting a more inclusive and equitable global governance framework [5]. Group 6: Conclusion - The essence of unilateral opening is rooted in self-confidence regarding its development path and a belief in human progress, aiming to attract more entrepreneurs, scholars, and media to engage in this significant topic [6].