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环保公用2026年策略报告:绿电新蓝海:就近消纳与非电利用-20251208
Guotou Securities· 2025-12-08 09:31
Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant growth of renewable energy installations, with wind and solar power exceeding thermal power for the first time, reaching a total installed capacity of 1.71 billion kilowatts by Q3 2025, accounting for 46% of total capacity, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The report outlines the importance of renewable energy consumption and its integration into the power system as a key focus for the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, aiming for a new energy system that supports high proportions of renewable energy by 2035 [2] Group 1: Green Electricity Consumption - The introduction of the green electricity direct connection policy allows renewable energy sources to supply electricity directly to users, bypassing the traditional grid, which is expected to enhance local consumption and address international carbon trade barriers [4] - Data centers are identified as a significant growth area for energy demand, with the green electricity direct connection policy providing a cost-effective energy supply solution, fostering the development of virtual power plants and energy storage [4] - The report highlights the potential for energy storage projects to evolve from grid stability to active demand-side management due to the green electricity direct connection policy [4] Group 2: Non-Electric Utilization - The inclusion of renewable energy non-electric consumption in national assessments marks a significant policy shift, with targets set for renewable energy heating, hydrogen production, and biofuels [6] - Renewable energy heating and cooling solutions are positioned as quantifiable pathways for industrial sectors reliant on thermal energy, with molten salt storage technology expected to enhance solar thermal power generation [6] - The report notes the accelerating decarbonization of the global transportation sector, with biofuels like green methanol and SAF gaining traction, presenting substantial growth opportunities [6] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on coal-fired power companies as they adapt to changing pricing structures, with attention on long-term contract prices expected to stabilize profitability [7] - Hydropower is highlighted as a scarce asset with long-term investment value due to limited development space, recommending specific companies for investment [7] - Nuclear power is expected to maintain long-term growth despite short-term pressures from tax policy changes, with several new projects set to come online by 2027 [7] Group 4: Market Performance - The environmental sector has outperformed the market, with the environmental index rising by 16.94% year-to-date compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 16.02% increase [13] - The report indicates that the power sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.455 trillion yuan, a slight decline of 2.21% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 3.89% to 175.6 billion yuan [16] - Coal-fired power companies have benefited from falling coal prices, with a reported revenue of 905.8 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 15.83% [20]