Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" in China, emphasizing the need to adapt to significant changes in the external environment and the importance of high-quality development to achieve modernization goals by 2035 [2][24]. Group 1: External Environment Changes - The new round of technological revolution is advancing, with artificial intelligence becoming a core area of competition, leading to increased pressure on China to enhance its independent innovation capabilities [3][27]. - Global supply chains are being restructured, shifting focus from cost and efficiency to security and stability, which presents both opportunities and challenges for China as the largest manufacturing center [3][29]. - The global governance system is undergoing transformation, with emerging multilateral mechanisms playing a significant role in addressing global issues, while traditional mechanisms struggle [3][30]. Group 2: Economic Development Characteristics - Economic growth is converging towards a medium speed, with contributions from labor diminishing due to demographic changes, while quality and efficiency are improving [4][44]. - New industrialization is advancing, with a shift towards digital transformation and intelligent upgrades in traditional industries, leading to the emergence of new manufacturing applications [4][45]. - Urbanization is transitioning from high-speed to medium-speed, focusing on improving the quality of urban life and public services [4][46]. - The green and low-carbon transition is entering a critical phase, with energy consumption growth slowing down and pollution emissions reaching peak levels [4][47]. Group 3: Market Development Strategies - Building a unified national market is essential for unleashing domestic demand potential and promoting high-quality development, requiring the removal of market barriers and the establishment of fair competition [5][10]. - The super-large market size provides significant advantages, including economies of scale, diverse production factors, and enhanced innovation capabilities, which are crucial for maintaining competitiveness [7][8][34]. - The construction of a unified market must address issues such as local protectionism and market segmentation to facilitate smoother resource flow and enhance market advantages [19][21]. Group 4: Challenges in Economic Development - Population decline and aging are accelerating, leading to a decrease in the labor force and impacting consumption demand, which poses a challenge to economic growth [39]. - Technological innovation is not yet aligned with the requirements for high-quality development, with insufficient investment in basic research and a lack of leading talents [40]. - The transition from traditional growth drivers to new ones is challenging, as sectors like real estate face significant adjustments, impacting overall economic performance [41]. - The pressure to shift traditional development methods is increasing, necessitating a focus on consumption-driven growth rather than investment and export-led strategies [42]. Group 5: Future Economic Trends - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is critical for promoting high-quality development and transforming economic structures, with a focus on enhancing productivity and efficiency [43][49]. - The integration of new technologies and industries will drive economic growth, with strategic emerging industries expected to play a significant role in the future [36][38].

面向家庭部门的财政扩张应该是当前逆周期调节的主要载体。不同于货币政策，财政政策可以通过政府 与家庭部门直接发生经济与交易行为（转移支付、税收等）而快速有效地作用于消费。把提振消费作为 第一重点任务，必然意味财政政策是逆周期调节的第一有效工具。具体而言，完善社会保障体系，尤其 是改善弱势群体的保障，促进中低收入群体增收减负，是结合民生与消费的有效抓手。综合来看，面向 家庭部门的财政扩张可以兼顾稳增长、扎实推进共同富裕以及应对地缘经济挑战，达到一举多得的效 果。 现阶段面向家庭部门的财政扩张，尤其改善社会保障机制，既促进当前消费需求，也促进未来的财政自 动稳定器功能，是兼顾逆周期和跨周期（调整结构）的有效手段。短期来看，面向家庭的财政扩张可能 带来一定的财政收支缺口，因而要辅之以融资端增加国债发行。长远来看，则需要推动财税体制改革， 比如增加具有累进属性的直接税有利于调节收入差距、增强财政的自动稳定器功能。党的二十届三中全 会《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》提出"健全直接税体系""规范经营 所得、资本所得、财产所得税收政策，实行劳动性所得统一征税""研究同新业态相适应的税收制 度"等，是 ...