Core Insights - China has maintained its position as the world's second-largest importer for 16 consecutive years, driven by a population of over 1.4 billion and more than 400 million middle-income individuals, resulting in an annual import volume exceeding 20 trillion yuan [1][8]. Group 1: Trade and Economic Scale - China is the world's largest goods trader, holding this position for eight consecutive years and serving as a major trading partner for over 150 countries and regions [2]. - The service trade scale is projected to exceed 1 trillion USD for the first time in 2024, ranking second globally [3]. - China's cross-border e-commerce is the largest in the world, with total import and export volume expected to reach 2.71 trillion yuan in 2024 [4]. - By the end of 2024, China is expected to attract over 100 billion USD in foreign investment for 15 consecutive years, maintaining its status as the largest recipient of foreign investment among developing economies [5]. Group 2: Market Openness and Connectivity - The national negative list for foreign investment has been reduced to 29 items, with the manufacturing sector achieving a complete clearance [6]. - Shenzhen is emerging as an "international hub," enhancing its connectivity with the world through busy ports and efficient logistics, with significant growth in international shipping routes [7]. - In the first ten months, Shenzhen's import of mechanical and electrical products reached 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5%, while agricultural product imports grew by 10% to 82.26 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Tourism and Consumer Trends - The recent implementation of a 240-hour visa-free transit policy at several ports in Guangdong has significantly increased foreign tourist arrivals, with over 1.2 million foreign travelers processed this year, marking a 100% increase in visa-free entries [9]. - The integration of "China travel" and "China shopping" has become a popular topic on social media, with foreign tourists increasingly purchasing Chinese electronic products [9]. Group 4: Expert Insights on Market Potential - Experts emphasize that China's import demand accounts for 10.5% of global demand, providing opportunities for countries to leverage their advantages in participating in China's economic development [10]. - The expansion of green trade, particularly in new energy vehicles and solar products, has significantly reduced global costs for wind and solar power generation, enhancing the world's capacity to address climate change [10]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests actively expanding autonomous openness and aligning with international high-standard trade rules, with institutional openness being a key focus [10].

Group 1 - China's large-scale market is a key factor for its economic stability and serves as a bridge for global connectivity through high-level openness [1] - China has maintained its position as the world's largest goods trading nation for eight consecutive years, being a major trading partner for over 150 countries and regions [3] - China has been the world's second-largest importer for 16 consecutive years, with service trade expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2024, ranking second globally [5] Group 2 - China's cross-border e-commerce is the largest in the world, with total import and export volume reaching 2.71 trillion yuan in 2024 [7] - By the end of 2024, China is projected to attract over $100 billion in foreign investment for 15 consecutive years, maintaining its status as the largest recipient of foreign investment among developing economies [9] - China is one of the most dynamic tourism and travel markets globally, with over 20.89 million foreign visitors entering without a visa in the first three quarters of this year, a year-on-year increase of over 50% [11]

宏观经济深度研究 在变化中破局开新 ——2026 年中国经济展望 2025 年，过载的全球系统经历了一次"热启动"。随着高利率压力缓解、供需错 配修复、政策与产业联动重新结合，全球经济虽然未重返旧有常态，但在复原 与重构的交织中，新的增长架构与路径正在形成。展望 2026 年，前一阶段积累 的力量将集中显形，熵增与熵减的拉力此消彼长，全球经济被推至秩序与无序 的临界地带，各国增长模式的差异被迅速放大。就在这一关键节点，中国选择 了一条具有前瞻性的战略路径——以制度确定性对冲外部波动，以结构升级释 放中长期潜能，以新质生产力引领未来竞争，以内需体系建设激活超大规模市 场的深层动能。在这一全局判断之上，中国正在形成一个五年乃至更长周期的 破局开新。以变立势，通过结构优化、产业进化与体系重塑，构筑跨越周期的 竞争力。以需聚力，在更强的消费循环中释放超大规模市场的持续动能。以稳 立基，通过政策的确定性夯实经济运行的战略底盘。三股内生力量的耦合，使 中国在"十五五"开局之年有望保持 5% 左右的增长，在外部环境更具不确定性 的背景下保持稳健。同时，这种由内部驱动的结构性升级正在推动中国经济迈 向更加自主、更加均衡、更加 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's unique advantages in large-scale markets and diverse scenarios serve as both a "touchstone" for industrial upgrades and an "incubator" for innovation, showcasing the country's hard-core strength and immense potential in various innovation fields [2] Group 1: Green Energy and Hydrogen Production - China is set to become the world's largest "green oil" production base, with a complete renewable energy industry chain and an expected installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching 3.6 billion kilowatts by 2035 [4] - The world's largest integrated green hydrogen and ammonia project is located in Jilin Songyuan, which will produce green ammonia from renewable energy sources and is expected to be operational by the end of this year [6][10] - The project has developed the largest hydrogen storage facilities globally, with 15 hydrogen storage tanks, each with a capacity of 2,000 standard cubic meters, to stabilize the supply of green hydrogen for ammonia synthesis [12] Group 2: Technological Innovations and Cost Reductions - The project employs flexible ammonia synthesis technology, allowing production loads to be adjusted between 30% and 110%, enhancing operational efficiency [12] - The hydrogen production facility features 64 electrolysis units, each capable of producing 1,050 cubic meters of hydrogen per hour, marking the largest scale of such equipment worldwide [14] - The cost of hydrogen production has decreased by over 10% compared to the previous year, with expectations for further reductions, enhancing the economic viability of hydrogen [21] Group 3: Market Potential and Future Outlook - Global traditional ammonia production exceeds 200 million tons, with China accounting for one-third of this output; green ammonia demand is projected to surpass 10 million tons by 2035 as technology matures and costs decline [25] - The National Energy Administration is planning renewable energy hydrogen and ammonia production bases in regions with significant wind and solar potential [26] - China's total installed capacity of wind and solar power has surpassed 1.7 billion kilowatts, becoming the largest power source, with annual new renewable capacity exceeding 200 million kilowatts [28] Group 4: Innovation and Policy Support - The unique advantages of large-scale markets amplify the innovation chain, enabling rapid scaling of innovative results [30] - To further activate the innovation potential of the large market, it is essential to leverage market forces and financial services to guide capital towards cutting-edge technological innovation [34] - Recent government policies emphasize the importance of utilizing China's large-scale market and diverse application scenarios to promote large-scale applications of new scenarios, stimulating innovation vitality [36]

本月刚刚召开的国务院常务会议，部署了增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措施。提出"增强 供需适配性"，国务院常务会议为下一步提振消费释放了什么新信号？ 这次会议明确提出，要加快新技术新模式创新应用，强化人工智能融合赋能，聚焦重点行业、重点领域 开发新产品和增值服务。有专家表示，培育超大规模市场，使之成为"需求引擎"，不断为新产品、新业 态、新模式的诞生提供土壤。 对于如何解决"供需适配"的问题，此次国务院常务会议也提出了一些重点路径，如明确，加快新技术新 模式创新应用，强化人工智能融合赋能，聚焦重点行业、重点领域开发新产品和增值服务，持续拓展新 的消费增量。围绕细分市场精准匹配不同人群需求，发展一批柔性制造工厂，推动生产高效响应消费者 个性化需要等。 聚焦重点行业、重点领域开发新产品和增值服务 何为供需适配？商务部研究院流通与消费研究所所长董超解释，供需适配是指通过提升供给与需求的匹 配度，从而解决低端供给过剩、优质供给不足的供需错位问题，进一步打通制约消费的卡点堵点，畅通 经济循环，释放消费潜力。 要围绕细分市场精准匹配不同人群需求，发展一批柔性制造工厂，推动生产高效响应消费者个性化需 要。 要培育消费 ...

我国造船业三大指标：造船完工量、新接订单量、手持订单量连续多年位居全球第一，全球份额占比超 过50%。 我国拥有全球最大最完整的新能源产业链，可再生能源发电总装机容量达21.6亿千瓦，占全球总量40% 以上。 我国拥有全球规模最大的信息通信网络。5G基站开通数、移动电话用户数、固定宽带网络规模等指标 排名全球第一。 中国式现代化是14亿多人口的现代化，规模空前。依托超大规模市场，我国成为全球唯一拥有联合国产 业分类中全部工业门类的国家。 截至2024年，我国制造业增加值占全球比重接近30%，已连续15年保持全球制造业第一大国地位。 在全球500种主要工业产品中，我国有220多种产量位居第一。 我国生产的粗钢、水泥、电解铝占据全球产量50%以上。 我国生产了全球80%以上的光伏组件和70%的风电装备。 新能源汽车产量连续10年位居全球第一。 超大规模市场优势为我国产业发展注入持续而强大的支撑力，完善的产供链体系确保了生产制造的自主 可控和快速响应。 一大早，这家位于苏州吴中区的服务机器人生产企业的物流中转场已是一派繁忙景象。十几辆满载零部 件的车辆排队进出，工人们操作叉车将货物从进货区快速转运至出货区。来自苏州 ...

我国造船业三大指标：造船完工量、新接订单量、手持订单量连续多年位居全球第一，全球份额占比超过50%。 央视网消息：中国式现代化是14亿多人口的现代化，规模空前。依托超大规模市场，我国成为全球唯一拥有联合国产业分类中全部工业门类的 国家。 截至2024年，我国制造业增加值占全球比重接近30%，已连续15年保持全球制造业第一大国地位。 在全球500种主要工业产品中，我国有220多种产量位居第一。 新能源汽车产量连续10年位居全球第一。 我国生产的粗钢、水泥、电解铝占据全球产量50%以上。 我国生产了全球80%以上的光伏组件和70%的风电装备。 我国拥有全球规模最大的信息通信网络。5G基站开通数、移动电话用户数、固定宽带网络规模等指标排名全球第一。 我国拥有全球最大最完整的新能源产业链，可再生能源发电总装机容量达21.6亿千瓦，占全球总量40%以上。 代表智能制造和数字化最高水平的"灯塔工厂"数量全球第一，占比超过40%。 工业机器人新增装机量占全球比重超过50%。 江苏苏州：聚链成势 打造机器人产业创新集群 超大规模市场优势为我国产业发展注入持续而强大的支撑力，完善的产供链体系确保了生产制造的自主可控和快速响应。 ...

市场是最稀缺的资源，市场资源是我国的巨大优势。"十五五"规划建议明确提出"超大规模市场优 势持续显现"等经济社会发展主要目标，并围绕"建设强大国内市场，加快构建新发展格局"作出战略部 署。系列报道《超大规模市场看优势》将从消费、产业、创新、物流、开放五个方面，看我国超大规模 市场优势何在，如何进一步用好大市场、激活大市场。 我国消费大市场的"世界之最" 充分释放消费大国的市场潜力，是我国推动经济高质量发展、增强内生增长动力的关键举措。我国 超大规模市场体量，14亿消费者共同支撑起全球独有的巨大市场，来梳理一下我国消费大市场的"世界 之最"。 截至2024年，我国汽车产销总量已连续16年位居世界第一，空调、洗衣机、冰箱等家电销量同样位 列全球榜首，同时，我国还是蔬菜、水果、猪肉、水产品、鸡蛋等农副产品的最大消费国。 在数字消费领域，我国拥有全球最大的网上零售市场，网上零售额连续12年全球第一，并且仍在快 速增长，今年前10月达12.79万亿元人民币，同比增长9.6%。 同时，我国在数字消费和创新支付方面引领全球，移动支付交易规模全球第一，2024年达到563.7 万亿元。 层次多元 模式迭代 消费大市场活力充沛 ...

市场是最稀缺的资源。在消费领域，我国有超大规模市场优势已世所公认。这种规模优势，蕴含着丰富 的纵深层次。 说起"超大规模市场"，人们往往先想到14亿人口基数。巨大的人口体量是超大规模市场的根基，但绝非 全部。我们常说，中国经济是一片大海，这既指其辽阔，更极言其深邃。我国"超大规模市场"的消费潜 力，正藏于深邃的水面之下。 这首先体现在整体消费能力的坚实雄厚。中国拥有世界规模最大的中等收入群体，这一群体有着持续升 级的消费意愿，涵盖教育、医疗、文旅等多个领域的需求。值得关注的是，即便规模已相当可观，我国 中等收入群体占总人口的比重仍远低于欧美发达国家，这意味着消费市场的增长空间依然广阔，蕴含着 有待释放的巨大能量。 这更体现在消费模式的快速迭代。近年来，各类消费新名词不断涌现：有强调自我满足和内心愉悦 的"悦己消费"，有追求传统文化现代设计的"国潮消费"，有热衷骑行越野冰雪的"户外消费"，有崇尚自 然保护生态的"绿色消费"，有愿意为快乐买单的"情绪消费"，还有诸如银发经济、首发经济、夜间经 济、票根经济、体验经济等消费新模式。这些热词新语背后，是经济高质量发展下消费价值观的进阶： 从物质满足到精神追求，从单一选 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of China's super-large market advantage as a strategic asset for economic development and modernization [1][5][6] - It highlights the continuous growth of domestic consumption and the shift towards service consumption as key trends in the market [2][3] Group 1: Market Growth and Consumption Trends - China's social retail sales reached 36.5877 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The retail sales of social consumer goods are projected to grow from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [1] - Service retail sales are expected to grow by 6.2% in 2024, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption [2] Group 2: New Consumption Patterns - New consumption formats are emerging, integrating experiences such as shopping, exhibitions, and entertainment, enhancing leisure experiences for consumers [3] - Innovative products and cultural items, including traditional clothing and local specialties, are gaining popularity both domestically and internationally [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, focusing on three key tasks: expanding increments, improving efficiency, and ensuring smooth circulation [5][6] - The plan aims to enhance government investment in public welfare and infrastructure, optimize investment structures, and eliminate market barriers to fully leverage the benefits of the super-large market [6] - The eighth China International Import Expo saw a record high in participating enterprises, with intended transaction amounts reaching 83.49 billion USD, reflecting strong market engagement [5]