紫金礦業（02899.HK）短線分析：金價與萬億市值光環下的技術博弈 紫金礦業股價報38.36元，上漲3.12%。近期股價創出歷史新高，公司A股和H股總市值一度雙雙突破萬億大關，成為市場矚目的焦點。這一里程碑式的成 就，標誌著市場對這家礦業巨頭由"金、銅"雙輪驅動，到"金、銅、鋰"三駕馬車並駕齊驅的全新增長邏輯的認可。公司此前發佈的業績預增公告顯示，2025 年度淨利潤預計將達到510億至520億元人民幣，同比大增約59%至62%。步入2026年，公司計畫礦產金產量達到105噸，礦產銅120萬噸，當量碳酸鋰12萬 噸，展現出強勁的增長動能。市場分析認為，除了黃金的避險需求和銅在新能源領域的廣泛應用，公司快速擴張的鋰資源板塊（資源量已躋身全球前十）正 為其打開面向新能源時代的第二增長曲線，構成了其長期投資價值的基礎。 【中銀做客】專欄點評：黃金長牛與衍生工具策略 在1月6日的【中銀做客】專欄中，中銀國際董事Niki對紫金礦業及其背後的黃金邏輯進行了深度解讀。她明確指出，各國央行持續增持黃金儲備以及投資者 因應國際局勢變化的避險需求，是驅動金價中長期走強的主要原因。Niki重申了她對金價的樂觀判斷，並看好所有黃金 ...

短期盈利承壓≠長期無機會？美團(03690)窩輪多空策略 今日（12月11日）港股開盤，科技股普遍走高，成為帶動大盤上漲的主要力量。反映板塊整體表現的恒生科技指數開盤上漲0.55%。從主要權重股來看，阿 里巴巴、騰訊控股、網易、嗶哩嗶哩、快手等普遍上漲，漲幅在1%左右。 美團(03690)延續前一日反彈態勢，早盤股價穩守100元心理關口上方，截至11點43分，股價微漲0.8%報100.8元，成交量逐步放大至14.62億元，顯示資金對 這一關鍵價位的關注度升溫。回顧12月10日表現，美團股價勁升2.72%，以100元完美收盤，不僅結束了連日的震盪調整，更成功重回MA10（99.25元）附 近，儘管暫未突破MA30（100.2元）的小幅阻力，但技術面已釋放積極信號，為短線走勢埋下伏筆。 技術面來看，美團當前走勢可謂「強支撐下的突破蓄力」。具體數據顯示，股價下方有清晰的雙重支撐，第一支撐位位於96.8元，該位置不僅是近期震盪區 間的下沿，更與前期交易密集區重疊，具備較強的資金防守力度；第二支撐位則在93.5元，與摩通牛證等產品的收回價接近，形成技術面與衍生工具市場的 共振支撐。阻力方面，103.2元的第一阻力位是短 ...

Core Viewpoint - WuXi Biologics (02269) has shown a fluctuating upward trend in its stock price, currently at 33.74 HKD, up 0.42%, with a five-day volatility of 11.4%, indicating active market trading and some volatility [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The biotechnology sector is experiencing a strong performance against the market trend, with several Chinese biotech stocks performing well despite the Hang Seng Index decline on December 10, 2025 [1] - Other related companies such as WuXi AppTec (02359) and China Biologic Products (01177) saw declines of 1.15% and 2.04%, respectively [1] - Notably, the stock of Gilead Sciences (01672) surged nearly 18% due to positive results from its obesity treatment drug research, but later dropped by 3.73% [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - WuXi Biologics' stock price is currently near the 10-day moving average (approximately 32.03 HKD) and the 30-day moving average (approximately 33.17 HKD), slightly below the 60-day moving average (approximately 35.78 HKD) [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral level of 52, with overall technical indicators signaling a "neutral" stance, while some trend indicators like MACD and Bollinger Bands are giving buy signals [1] - Key support levels are at 31.9 HKD and 31 HKD, while resistance levels are at 35.2 HKD and 36.1 HKD, with an overall upward probability of 54% [3] Group 3: Derivative Market Insights - The performance of derivative products has been notable, with leveraged characteristics highlighted in a volatile market [4] - On December 5, when WuXi Biologics' stock rose approximately 2.88%, related derivative products showed significant price changes, with UBS bull certificates (67145) rising 18% and JPMorgan bull certificates (66081) increasing by 14% [4] - This demonstrates that even moderate increases in the underlying stock can lead to amplified returns in derivatives due to leverage [4][5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For investors considering derivatives, various products are available to meet different investment strategies and risk preferences [7] - UBS bull certificates (67145) have a strike price of 28.8 HKD and an actual leverage of about 5 times, providing a safety margin due to its distance from the current stock price [7] - For cautious investors, UBS bear certificates (58905) with a strike price of 40 HKD and an actual leverage of about 4.6 times may serve as a hedging option [7]

Group 1 - The stock price of Sunny Optical (02382) is currently at HKD 68.6, showing a slight increase of 1.18%, with signs of stabilization in its technical pattern [1] - The stock is trading slightly above the 10-day moving average (HKD 65.35) but remains below the 30-day (HKD 69.67) and 60-day (HKD 76.53) moving averages, indicating that the medium to long-term trend has not yet strengthened [1] - A momentum oscillation indicator has issued a "severely oversold, potential bottoming, buy" signal, contrasting with the relatively weak price performance [1] Group 2 - Short-term resistance is identified at HKD 71.1, with a potential test of HKD 73.1 if this level is breached; support levels are at HKD 64.6 and HKD 63.5 [1] - The article raises a question about whether the stock price is more likely to challenge resistance or retest support given the current technical setup [1] Group 3 - Data shows that derivative instruments like warrants can significantly amplify returns due to their leverage characteristics; on November 28, when Sunny Optical's stock rose approximately 6.54%, investors using aligned derivative tools achieved returns several times greater [3] - High-leverage bull certificates performed exceptionally well, with Societe Generale's bull certificate (64831) and UBS's bull certificate (64941) recording remarkable increases of 46% and 38% respectively within two days [3] Group 4 - For investors optimistic about Sunny Optical's future, two call warrant products are highlighted: Huatai call warrant (22691) with an exercise price of HKD 73.93 and a leverage of 4.2, and Bank of China call warrant (15842) with an exercise price of HKD 73.88 and a leverage of 3.5 [6] - For bearish investors, two put warrant products are suggested: JPMorgan put warrant (20409) with an exercise price of HKD 73.33 and a leverage of 3.2, and UBS put warrant (20130) with an exercise price of HKD 73.88 and a leverage of 3 [6] Group 5 - For investors seeking higher leverage, UBS bull certificate (64941) offers a recovery price of HKD 57 and a leverage of 4.8, while Societe Generale bull certificate (64831) has a recovery price of HKD 57.5 and a leverage of 4.9 [10] - It is important to note that bull and bear certificates have a forced recovery mechanism, which means they will terminate trading if the underlying stock price hits the recovery price before expiration [10]

回顧昨日專欄【中銀做客】今天結束之前我們再聊一只剛銀河娛樂（27）。銀河娛樂的股價近期回升了一些，現在大概在40元附近，想問問這只個股目前 在市場上，是不是還是有較多資金流入，看好的人比較多呢？ 中銀國際董事Niki：銀河娛樂這一兩天上漲，主要是因為市場看到了11月澳門博彩的總收入數據，高達211億元，這個數據好於市場早前的預 期。大家覺得11月並不是特別的假期旺季，10月有黃金周，12月可能有年底休假、農曆新年假期或者聖誕假期，而11月的數據都這麼好，所以對 接下來的12月以及明年1月的消費都充滿期待。整體來看，澳門板塊可能受到提振內需的影響，大家選擇的旅遊目的地近期可能會有所改變，更 多人可能會選擇澳門，所以相關股票也受到了一定的帶動和支持，大家不妨留意一下澳門博彩板塊。銀河娛樂（27）的認購證可以留意21991， 行使價50.05元，明年4月中到期，槓桿大概8倍；認沽證可以參考22044，行使價28.98元，明年5月中到期，槓桿大概7倍。 Simon：大家可以看到，以銀河娛樂（27）為例，中銀國際的產品既有認沽證也有認購證，無論投資者看好上漲還是下跌，都有相應的選擇，給 大家做參考。從技術信號總結來看， ...

Core Viewpoint - AIA Insurance's stock price has shown a rebound, rising by 1.15% to 78.85 HKD, approaching a key resistance area, indicating a strengthening mid-term trend despite short-term inconsistencies in technical indicators [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The stock price has successfully surpassed the MA30 at 76.21 HKD and MA60 at 74.81 HKD, while still facing resistance at MA10 of 81.26 HKD, creating a divergence between short-term and mid-term trends [1]. - The RSI is at a neutral to strong level of 55, with stochastic indicators signaling a buy, while momentum oscillators indicate a sell, reflecting mixed technical signals [1][16]. - Immediate support levels are at 75.2 HKD and 72.8 HKD, with primary resistance at 82.8 HKD, and a potential target of 84 HKD if the resistance is broken [3]. Market Volatility and Derivative Products - AIA's short-term upward probability is estimated at 54%, with a five-day volatility of 7.6%, providing opportunities for short-term traders [3]. - Recent performance of bearish products has been notable, with HSBC's bear certificate recording a 67% increase during a 4.12% drop in AIA's stock price, highlighting the leverage effect of derivatives in volatile markets [3]. Selected Derivative Products - For bullish investors, HSBC's call option (29501) with a strike price of 88.88 HKD offers an 8.1x leverage, while Bank of China's call option (17336) at 88.93 HKD provides the highest leverage in the market at 8x [6]. - For bearish strategies, UBS's put option (19351) and Bank of China's put option (18984) both have a strike price of 66.94 HKD, offering leverage of 4.1x and 4.2x respectively, suitable for investors expecting a pullback at key resistance levels [6]. Bull and Bear Certificate Strategies - UBS's bull certificate (61825) and HSBC's bull certificate (61902) are noteworthy, both with a redemption price set at 66 HKD and providing a leverage of 5.6x, appealing to investors who are bullish on AIA's future [13]. - For bearish positions, Société Générale's bear certificate (52361) offers a redemption price of 85 HKD with a leverage of 12.1x, while HSBC's bear certificate (53010) provides a leverage of 11.8x, both advantageous in volatile market conditions [13].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector in Hong Kong is experiencing significant volatility, particularly with the stock price of SMIC (00981) facing intense fluctuations around the 75 HKD mark, indicating a unique trading opportunity for short-term traders [1] Technical Analysis - SMIC is currently at a critical point in a triangular consolidation pattern, oscillating between 71 HKD and 79.5 HKD, with a mid-term support level lowered to 65.6 HKD and a resistance level at 85.6 HKD [1] - The moving average system shows a tangled state, with the stock price barely above the MA10 at 74 HKD but still below the MA30 at 77.7 HKD, suggesting that the mid-term trend has not fully strengthened [1] - Notably, the momentum oscillation indicator has issued a "potential bottom formation" buy signal, contrasting with the sell signal from the MACD, reflecting market divergence regarding SMIC's outlook [1] Derivative Products - Investors anticipating a breakthrough for SMIC should consider the Bank of China call warrant (18977) with a strike price of 88.88 HKD, offering a leverage of 5.3 times and a relatively reasonable premium [6] - The BNP Paribas call warrant (19088) is also noteworthy, with a strike price of 88.93 HKD and a leverage of 6.3 times, featuring the lowest premium among similar products [6] Bull and Bear Certificates - For bullish investors, the UBS bull certificate (60513) is recommended, with a redemption price set at 63 HKD and an actual leverage of 5.4 times, having the lowest premium among similar products [11] - HSBC's bull certificate (60800) offers a leverage of 5.1 times with a redemption price of 62 HKD, providing a competitive advantage in leverage [11] - For bearish investors, HSBC's bear certificate (60096) has a redemption price of 88 HKD and an actual leverage of 6.1 times, while UBS's bear certificate (59839) also has a redemption price of 88 HKD but offers a higher leverage of 6.5 times [11] Investor Strategy - Investors are encouraged to consider whether to position themselves with bull certificates at the lower end of the range or wait for a clear breakout signal before entering call warrants [14] - Key factors that may catalyze SMIC's breakthrough from the current consolidation range are open for discussion among investors [14]

Group 1: Stock Performance and Technical Analysis - The stock price of Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has shown positive momentum, rising by 2.12% to HKD 432.6, successfully breaking through the 10-day moving average resistance [1] - The current price is in the overlapping range of the 10-day and 30-day moving averages, with the 10-day line providing initial support at approximately HKD 427.98 and the 30-day line forming short-term pressure at around HKD 433.24 [1] - The 5-day volatility reached 4.6%, indicating that market fluctuations have created good opportunities for short-term trading [1] Group 2: Technical Indicators - Technical indicators are showing mixed signals; the RSI is at a neutral level of 50, the stochastic oscillator has issued a buy signal, while the MACD indicates a sell signal, reflecting the market's current indecisiveness [1] - Support and resistance analysis shows the first support level at HKD 422, with strong support at HKD 416; on the upside, initial resistance is at HKD 443, with key resistance at the psychological level of HKD 450 [1] Group 3: Derivative Products Performance - Three HKEX-related derivative products mentioned on November 4 performed well in the following two days, with UBS bull certificate 64102 rising by 11%, HSBC bull certificate 57036 increasing by 10%, and HSBC call warrant 29458 up by 7% [3] - These products outperformed the underlying stock's increase of 1.6% during the same period, showcasing the leverage effect of derivative instruments when the market direction is correctly identified [3] Group 4: Recommended Derivative Products - For bullish investors, recommended call warrants include Bank of China call warrant 13855 and UBS call warrant 15854, both offering approximately 7.7 times leverage with a strike price set at HKD 518.5, featuring relatively low premiums to reduce time value loss [6] - For bearish investors, HSBC put warrant 19847 and Bank of China put warrant 19860 are suggested, both with a strike price of HKD 387.8 and leverage exceeding 10 times, also benefiting from low premiums [6] Group 5: Bull and Bear Certificates Recommendations - For bullish investors, UBS bull certificate 62570 and Societe Generale bull certificate 56665 are recommended, with leverage of 12.5 times and 12 times respectively, and recovery prices set at HKD 403 and HKD 400.5, featuring the lowest premiums in the current market [9] - For bearish investors, UBS bear certificate 56683 and HSBC bear certificate 56027 are available, both with recovery prices at HKD 460 and leverage of 15.7 times and 14.4 times, also characterized by relatively low premiums [9] Group 6: Market Sentiment and Trading Strategies - The article poses a question regarding whether HKEX can successfully break through the resistance at HKD 443, highlighting the mixed technical signals in the current environment [11] - It invites readers to share their trading plans and uncertainties, suggesting a focus on either waiting for a clear breakout or engaging in high sell-low buy strategies within the range [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the technical analysis of China Mobile's stock, highlighting its current price level and potential resistance and support points, indicating a critical juncture for the stock's movement [1][14]. Technical Analysis - China Mobile's current price is around 84.63 HKD, with a first support level at 82.1 HKD and a strong support at 78.8 HKD. A breakthrough above 88.5 HKD is necessary for further upward movement towards a target of 91.8 HKD [1]. - The moving averages show a convergence pattern, with MA10 at 85.54 HKD and MA30 at 86.56 HKD, suggesting a significant price change may be imminent [1]. - The RSI indicator is stable at 54, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for both bullish and bearish actions [1]. Mixed Technical Signals - Various technical indicators are sending mixed signals: the Williams and Stochastic indicators remain neutral, while the Momentum Oscillator gives a clear buy signal. The CCI indicator suggests a potential bottoming out, indicating a buying opportunity [3]. - The article raises questions about which of these conflicting signals holds the most value for investors [3]. Historical Performance of Derivatives - On October 14, a notable example was provided where the Citigroup call option (13110) surged by 10% over two trading days, outperforming the underlying stock's 1.18% increase. Similarly, HSBC's bull certificate (65285) rose by 15%, showcasing the explosive potential of derivatives in trending markets [3]. - Other notable performances included UBS's bull certificate (64731) with a 13% increase and Bank of China’s call option (25695) also rising by 13% [3]. Selected Product Strategies - The Bank of China call option (21277) offers a leverage of 11.6 times with an exercise price of 101.98 HKD, making it an attractive choice for bullish investors. UBS's call option (21344) also provides a leverage of 11.8 times, targeting the same price [5]. - For risk-sensitive investors, the China Securities put option (21480) is highlighted for its low premium and implied volatility, with an exercise price of 75.88 HKD. The Bank of China put option (21625) offers a leverage of 8.7 times, suitable for bearish outlooks [5]. Bull and Bear Certificates - Among bull certificates, UBS's (64731) stands out with a leverage of 12 times and a redemption price of 78 HKD, while HSBC's (65285) offers 10.8 times leverage with the same redemption price [10]. - In the bear certificate category, UBS's (56287) leads with a leverage of 9.1 times and a redemption price of 95 HKD, while Societe Generale's (57946) is noted for its lowest premium, also set at a redemption price of 95 HKD [10].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector is experiencing active trading, with SMIC (00981) showing a price increase of 2.47% to HKD 74.7, indicating rich investment opportunities for short-term traders [1] Technical Analysis - SMIC's stock price has been fluctuating between the middle and upper bands of the Bollinger Bands since August 29, suggesting a critical breakout window [1] - Key support levels are at HKD 67.7 and HKD 62.3, while resistance levels are at HKD 78.4 and HKD 87.2, marking significant price barriers [1] - The stock is currently trading above multiple moving averages, with MA10 at HKD 71.74, MA30 at HKD 62.86, and MA60 at HKD 56.14, indicating a relatively strong medium-term bullish trend [1] Signal Summary - The overall technical indicators provide a "sell" signal with a strength of 8, yet several important indicators show positive signs [3] - The RSI is at 74, indicating an overbought condition but maintains a neutral buy/sell signal [3] - Various oscillators are neutral, while the CCI indicator has issued a buy signal, and both MACD and Bollinger Bands show buy signals, reflecting significant market divergence regarding SMIC's short-term direction [3] Derivative Products Performance - Recent derivative products related to SMIC have performed exceptionally well, with Huatai call warrants (14397) rising by 34%, UBS bull certificates (60514) increasing by 33%, and other products showing gains of 18%, all outperforming the underlying stock's 5.79% increase [3] Investment Options - For bullish investors, UBS call warrants (20322) offer 3.2x leverage with a strike price of HKD 80.05, while the Cinda call warrants (20290) provide 3.5x leverage with the lowest premium and implied volatility [6] - For bearish investors, the Bank of China put warrants (20088) offer 2.5x leverage with a strike price of HKD 52.45, and UBS bear certificates (54920) provide 11.1x leverage with a redemption price of HKD 80 [8]