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港股概念追踪|中国风电新增装机量超出预期 设备供应商业绩提升(附概念股)
智通财经网· 2025-08-19 23:17
Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant growth in renewable energy capacity in Southern China, with a threefold increase since the 14th Five-Year Plan, making wind and solar power the dominant energy sources [1] - The first phase of the Jinshan offshore wind farm has completed the installation of 36 turbines, marking it as the first competitive offshore wind project in China to be priced below coal benchmark rates [1] - In the first half of 2025, China's new wind power installations are expected to reach 51.39 GW, a year-on-year increase of 98.88%, with wind power generation accounting for 11.43% of total electricity consumption [1] Group 2 - Wind turbine component companies have shown strong performance, with six out of eleven listed companies reporting or forecasting net profit growth exceeding 100% in the first half of 2025, indicating robust industry recovery [2] - The increase in profits for wind turbine component manufacturers is attributed to a combination of policy support, market demand, and price recovery, leading to a rapid transmission of profits up the supply chain [2] - Expectations for 2025 include a 30% growth in industry installations, with potential improvements in manufacturing gross margins for leading turbine manufacturers due to reduced sales and management expense ratios [2] Group 3 - Citigroup anticipates a 10% increase in wind turbine bidding prices within the year, projecting an improvement in Goldwind's sales gross margin from 4% in 2024 to 7% and 10% in the following two years [3] - HSBC notes that Goldwind's H-shares have risen by 74% since the first quarter earnings announcement, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index, driven by improved profit outlooks and inflows from southbound funds [3] - The company is expected to benefit from increased overseas orders and higher profit margins, with a positive outlook for its wind turbine manufacturing business in the coming years [3]
风电行业研究框架培训
2025-08-18 15:10
Wind Power Industry Research Summary Industry Overview - The wind power industry is primarily focused on the ToB/ToG market, with the return on power generation assets being a core concern, influenced by operating hours, electricity prices, and depreciation costs of power stations [1][2][3] - The domestic wind power sector has evolved through several phases: incubation, rapid growth, correction, and parity. Post-2020, both onshore and offshore wind power have become competitive without subsidies, leading to sustained growth [1][2][3] - It is projected that by 2025, onshore wind power installed capacity will exceed 100 GW, while offshore wind power is expected to reach around 10 GW [1][4] Short-term Market Indicators - The market's short-term health can be assessed through approval, bidding, installation, and grid connection data. Bidding is a leading indicator, typically ahead of installation by about a year [4] - In the first half of 2025, onshore wind bidding has decreased, while offshore wind bidding continues to grow. For 2026, onshore installations are expected to remain high, with offshore installations also anticipated to grow rapidly [5][4] Long-term Market Potential - The domestic wind power market has significant long-term development potential, with abundant onshore and offshore resources. Onshore wind is in a large-scale construction phase, while offshore wind is transitioning from nearshore to deep-sea development [6] - Key factors for future growth include economic viability and the pace of customer adoption. Regions like Zhejiang, Liaoning, and Shandong are advancing deep-sea projects, while Guangdong and Jiangsu are expected to continue their development [6] Importance of Overseas Markets - Overseas markets are crucial for domestic companies, with some achieving significant orders and performance abroad. The overseas onshore wind market is experiencing steady growth, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, while the offshore market is still in its early stages [7] - In the first half of 2025, projects outside mainland China have seen growth, with expectations for significant increases in installed capacity in the coming years, particularly in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region [7] Industry Chain Structure - The wind power industry chain includes key components such as wind turbines, towers, cables, and substations, with upstream products like steel and copper being critical [8] - The industry faces intense competition, leading to price pressures that affect profit margins. However, recent price corrections have been observed, indicating potential improvements in industry profitability [9] Sector-Specific Insights - The wind turbine sector is expected to see a profitability recovery in the second half of 2025, with rising gross margins due to stabilized supply chains and increased efficiency [10] - The wind turbine components market is experiencing growth, with stable prices and improved profitability in blade production and other components [11] - The tower and pile market is competitive, with domestic companies gaining an advantage in offshore projects due to their established capabilities [12] - The submarine cable industry is characterized by high technical barriers, with leading companies benefiting from increased demand and international expansion opportunities [13][14] Overall Industry Outlook - The wind power industry is currently in a phase of overall prosperity, with expectations for significant earnings growth across various segments in the second half of 2025 [16][18] - Investment in the wind power sector, particularly in offshore wind and international markets, is recommended to capitalize on growth opportunities [16][18]
吉鑫科技股价上涨1.42% 控股公司因环境问题被处罚
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-15 18:57
Group 1 - The latest stock price of Jixin Technology is 4.30 yuan, an increase of 0.06 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 383,000 hands and a transaction amount of 164 million yuan [1] - Jixin Technology primarily engages in the research and manufacturing of wind power equipment, including core components such as wind power castings, closely linked to the prosperity of the renewable energy industry [1] - Jixin Technology's subsidiary, Changzhou Jixin Wind Energy Technology Co., Ltd., was fined 200,000 yuan by the Changzhou Ecological Environment Bureau for evading regulatory emissions of air pollutants [1] Group 2 - On the same day, the net inflow of main funds into Jixin Technology was 4.7322 million yuan, accounting for 0.11% of the circulating market value, while the cumulative net outflow over the past five trading days was 33.3592 million yuan, representing 0.8% of the circulating market value [1]
风电产业链周度跟踪(8月第2周)-20250810
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-10 07:56
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the wind power industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [1] Core Views - The offshore wind sector is expected to see significant project launches in Jiangsu and Guangdong in the first half of 2025, marking the beginning of a new era for national offshore wind development. The average annual installed capacity for offshore wind during the 14th Five-Year Plan is projected to exceed 20GW, significantly higher than the previous plan. Onshore wind installations are anticipated to reach a historical high of 100GW in 2025, with component manufacturers experiencing simultaneous volume and price increases, leading to substantial annual performance growth. The domestic manufacturing profitability of main engine companies is expected to recover in the third quarter as orders are delivered at increased prices, providing profit elasticity for Chinese wind turbine manufacturers in the coming years [4][5] Summary by Sections Industry News - Recent performance in the wind power sector has shown a divergence, with the top three performing segments being mooring systems (+8.2%), bearings (+6.1%), and castings (+0.8%). The top three individual stocks in terms of growth over the past two weeks are Wuzhou New Spring (+13.6%), Changsheng Bearings (+9.1%), and Yaxing Anchor Chain (+9.0%) [3] Market Data - As of 2025, the cumulative public bidding capacity for wind turbines nationwide is 45.9GW, with onshore wind turbine bidding capacity at 42.3GW and offshore wind turbine capacity at 3.7GW. The average winning bid price for onshore wind turbines (excluding towers) is 1,531 CNY/kW. In 2024, the total public bidding capacity is expected to reach 107.4GW, with a 61% year-on-year increase [7][8] Investment Recommendations - Three key investment directions are suggested: 1) Leading companies in export layouts for pipe piles and submarine cables; 2) Domestic main engine leaders with bottoming profits and accelerating exports; 3) Component manufacturers with opportunities for simultaneous volume and profit growth in 2025. Recommended companies include Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, Guoda Special Materials, Zhongji United, Daikin Heavy Industry, Riyue Co., Times New Materials, Hewei Electric, and Jinlei Co. [5]
风电产业链周度跟踪(7月第4周)-20250726
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-26 14:59
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the wind power industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The offshore wind sector is expected to see significant project launches in Jiangsu and Guangdong in the first half of 2025, marking the beginning of a new era for state-managed offshore wind development. The average annual installed capacity for offshore wind during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is projected to exceed 20GW, significantly surpassing the previous plan's levels. Onshore wind installations are anticipated to reach a historical high of 100GW in 2025, with component manufacturers experiencing simultaneous volume and price increases, leading to substantial annual performance growth. The domestic manufacturing profitability of main engine companies is expected to recover in the third quarter as orders are delivered following price increases, and the export of Chinese wind turbines is gaining momentum, with new orders expected to maintain high growth in 2025-2026, providing further profit elasticity [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Recent performance in the wind power sector has shown a divergence, with the top three performing segments being bearings (+12.1%), blades (+6.8%), and submarine cables (+2.0%). The top three individual stocks over the past two weeks include Changsheng Bearings (+37.5%), Zhongcai Technology (+14.9%), and Wuzhou Xinchun (+9.8%) [3]. Market Data - As of 2025, the cumulative public bidding capacity for wind turbines nationwide is 43.7GW (-13%), with onshore wind turbine bidding capacity at 40.1GW (-12%) and offshore wind turbine capacity at 3.7GW (-18%). The average winning bid price for onshore wind turbines (excluding towers) in 2025 is 1,531 CNY/kW. In 2024, the total public bidding capacity is projected to be 107.4GW (+61%) [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - Three key areas for investment focus are suggested: 1) Leading companies in export layouts for pile foundations and submarine cables; 2) Domestic main engine leaders with bottoming profits and accelerating exports; 3) Component manufacturers with opportunities for simultaneous volume and profit growth in 2025. Recommended companies include Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, Guangda Special Materials, Zhongji United, Dajin Heavy Industry, Riyue Co., Times New Materials, Hewei Electric, and Jinlei Co. [5]
风电产业链周度跟踪(7月第2周)-20250713
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-13 11:48
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the wind power industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The offshore wind sector is expected to see significant project launches in Jiangsu and Guangdong in the first half of 2025, marking the beginning of a new era for national offshore wind development. The average annual installed capacity for offshore wind during the 14th Five-Year Plan is projected to exceed 20GW, significantly surpassing the previous plan's levels. For onshore wind, the industry is anticipated to reach a record high of 100GW in installed capacity in 2025, with component manufacturers experiencing simultaneous increases in volume and price, leading to substantial annual performance growth. The domestic manufacturing profitability for main engine companies is expected to recover in the third quarter as orders are delivered following price increases, providing profit elasticity with new orders expected to remain high in 2025-2026 [4][5] Summary by Sections Industry News - The wind power sector has seen a general increase in stock prices over the past two weeks, with the top three performing segments being blades (+15.9%), submarine cables (+2.6%), and complete machines (+0.7%). The top three individual stocks in terms of growth are Zhongcai Technology (+34.8%), Xinqianglian (+11.7%), and Dajin Heavy Industry (+6.1%) [3] Market Performance - As of 2025, the cumulative public bidding capacity for wind turbines nationwide is 41.6GW, with onshore wind at 37.9GW and offshore wind at 3.7GW. The average winning bid price for onshore wind turbines (excluding towers) is 1,531 CNY/kW. In 2024, the total public bidding capacity is expected to reach 107.4GW, with a significant increase in onshore wind bidding [7][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main areas: 1) Leading companies in export layouts for piles and submarine cables; 2) Domestic leading companies with bottoming profits and accelerating exports; 3) Component manufacturers with opportunities for simultaneous volume and profit growth in 2025. Recommended companies include Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, Guangda Special Materials, Zhongji United, Dajin Heavy Industry, Riyue Co., Ltd., Times New Materials, Hewei Electric, and Jinlei Co., Ltd. [5]
风电产业链周评(5月第3周)海上风电开工招标有序推进,关注二季度板块业绩弹性
Guoxin Securities· 2025-05-18 15:35
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the wind power industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The offshore wind power sector is progressing steadily with major projects expected to commence in the first half of 2025, and over 25GW of projects approved and awaiting bidding nationwide, indicating a record year for bidding in 2025. The average annual installed capacity for offshore wind during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to exceed 20GW, significantly surpassing the previous plan's levels. Onshore wind installations are projected to exceed 90GW in 2025, with stable main unit prices and cost reductions driving a rebound in profitability. The export of Chinese wind turbines is gaining momentum, with high growth in orders expected from 2025 to 2026, leading to significant profit elasticity in manufacturing. The profitability of components is expected to decline from 2022 to 2024 but is anticipated to recover in 2025 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The wind power sector has seen a general increase in stock prices over the past two weeks, with the top three performing segments being complete machines (+3.1%), blades (+2.9%), and mooring systems (+1.7%). The top three individual stocks in terms of growth are Lixing Co. (+9.6%), Zhongcai Technology (+8.6%), and Guoda Special Materials (+7.9%) [3]. Market Performance - As of 2025, the cumulative publicly tendered capacity for wind turbines nationwide is 46.3GW (+75%), with onshore wind accounting for 36.8GW (+57%) and offshore wind for 9.6GW (+213%). The average winning bid price for onshore wind turbines (excluding towers) in 2025 is 1,774 CNY/kW. For 2024, the total publicly tendered capacity is expected to reach 107.4GW (+61%) [7][11]. Investment Recommendations - Four key areas to focus on include: 1) Leading companies in tower/pile production with high capacity and export potential; 2) Leading submarine cable companies with expected recovery and opening export markets; 3) Leading complete machine manufacturers with domestic profitability bottoming out and accelerating exports; 4) Component manufacturers with opportunities for simultaneous volume and profit growth in 2025. Recommended companies include Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, Guoda Special Materials, Zhongji United, Dajin Heavy Industry, Times New Materials, Hewei Electric, Riyue Co., and Sany Renewable Energy [5][6].
财说| 3K碳纤维每吨涨价1万元,能改善吉林化纤盈利水平吗?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 08:08
Core Viewpoint - The demand for drones is increasing due to the low-altitude economy, leading to a supply shortage of wet-process 3K carbon fiber from Jilin Chemical Fiber, resulting in a price increase of 10,000 yuan per ton for various grades of products [1] Group 1: Price Increase Impact - The capital market reacted sensitively to the price increase, with Jilin Chemical Fiber's stock price hitting the daily limit [2] - The price increase for wet-process 3K carbon fiber is expected to have a limited impact on the company's overall performance, as this product accounts for a small portion of total revenue [6] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Jilin Chemical Fiber's revenue is projected to be 3.883 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.93%, while net profit is expected to decline by 13.90% to 28.8841 million yuan, primarily due to the unprofitable carbon fiber business [3] - The core revenue source for the company is viscose filament, generating 2.791 billion yuan in revenue (71.83% of total), with a gross margin of 20.44% [3] - The carbon fiber business contributes only 8.24% to total revenue, with 320 million yuan in revenue and a negative gross margin of -26.74%, indicating a loss [3] Group 3: Production Capacity and Costs - Jilin Chemical Fiber has a design capacity of 12,000 tons for carbon fiber, with a low capacity utilization rate of 44.59%, producing 5,351 tons and selling 5,285 tons last year [3][4] - The cost structure of the carbon fiber business is heavily influenced by the price fluctuations of raw materials like acrylonitrile, which increased by 7.54% year-on-year, while the average carbon fiber price decreased by 22% to approximately 61,000 yuan per ton [4] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The carbon fiber products are primarily small tow fibers (12K, 25K) used in civilian applications, facing intense competition and high price sensitivity [5] - Future demand for carbon fiber is expected to rise due to the development of low-altitude economy applications, such as electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL) and logistics drones, as well as the wind power industry driven by domestic renewable energy policies [5] Group 5: Valuation and Growth Expectations - The recent price increase is more likely to boost market sentiment than to significantly enhance actual profits for the company [7] - Jilin Chemical Fiber's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is currently 765 times, significantly higher than the industry average of 41 times, indicating that the valuation relies on future growth expectations rather than current profitability [7] - Analysts predict net profits for 2025-2027 to be 144 million, 223 million, and 290 million yuan, respectively, implying a high price-to-earnings ratio of 513, 234, and 180 times, necessitating an annual growth rate of over 50% to justify the valuation [7]
风电产业链周评(3月第1周):年初以来陆风招标大幅增长,三峡大丰海风项目全面开工
Guoxin Securities· 2025-03-09 10:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the wind power industry [1] Core Views - The wind power sector is experiencing significant growth, with land-based wind power tenders increasing substantially since the beginning of the year. The offshore wind project by Three Gorges Group has commenced full construction [1][4] - 2025 is expected to be a record year for tenders, with over 25GW of projects approved and awaiting bidding. The average annual installation of offshore wind power during the 14th Five-Year Plan is projected to exceed 20GW, significantly surpassing the previous plan [4] - The industry is anticipated to see a historical high in installed capacity for land-based wind power, exceeding 90GW in 2025, with stable main engine prices and a rebound in profitability driven by technological cost reductions [4] Summary by Sections Industry News - The report highlights the significant increase in land-based wind power tenders and the commencement of major offshore projects [1][4] Market Performance - Recent performance in the wind power sector has shown a divergence, with the top-performing segments being castings (+11.4%), blades (+10.4%), and bearings (+5.6%). Notable individual stock performances include Guangda Special Materials (+14.8%) and Times New Material (+14.8%) [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four key areas: 1) Leading companies in tower/pile production with high export potential 2) Leading submarine cable companies with expected recovery and opening export markets 3) Leading complete machine manufacturers with domestic profitability bottoming out and accelerating exports 4) Component manufacturers with opportunities for simultaneous volume and profit growth in 2025 - Recommended companies include Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, Times New Material, Hewei Electric, Sany Renewable Energy, Daikin Heavy Industries, Sun Moon Shares, Zhongji United, and Jinlei Shares [5] Tender and Installation Data - As of 2025, the cumulative public tender capacity for wind turbines in China has reached 24.3GW (+151%), with land-based wind turbine tender capacity at 23.7GW (+145%). The average winning bid price for land-based wind turbines (excluding towers) in 2025 is 1,499 CNY/kW [11] - In 2024, the total public tender capacity for wind turbines was 107.4GW (+61%), with land-based capacity at 99.1GW (+70%) and offshore capacity at 8.4GW (-3%) [11] Company Announcements - The report notes the full construction of the 800MW offshore wind project by Three Gorges Group and the commencement of a 500kW wind power project in Xinjiang by Sany Renewable Energy [10]