Core Insights - The Yangtze River Delta is emerging as a hub for wind power equipment manufacturing, with strong overseas demand for wind power equipment [1] - In August, exports of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products from Shanghai increased by 37.1%, 112.1%, and 39% respectively [1] - Morgan Stanley's recent report indicates that the Chinese wind power industry has experienced intense competition in recent years, with companies previously focusing on price over volume. However, a turning point has been reached this year, with leading companies prioritizing long-term performance and total lifecycle costs, focusing on quality [1] - Data shows that the average bidding price for onshore wind turbines (excluding towers) has increased by approximately 8 percentage points year-on-year, while the average bidding price for offshore wind turbines (excluding towers) has risen by about 12 percentage points year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The wind power industry is experiencing a turning point in Q1 2025, with revenue and profitability expected to continue rising, driven by stable domestic prices and increased demand from both domestic and international markets [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In 2024, the domestic wind power sector is projected to add 87 GW of new installations, a year-on-year increase of 10%, despite a significant decline in sales prices [1]. - The revenue for SW wind power equipment in 2024 is expected to be 192 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.75 billion yuan, down 26.6% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, new wind turbine tenders reached 28.6 GW, a year-on-year increase of 23%, indicating sustained high demand [2]. Group 2: Segment Analysis - The profitability of the complete machine manufacturing segment is stabilizing, with a decrease in profitability in Q1 2025 primarily due to a slowdown in power station transfers [3]. - The average sales price for wind turbines among leading companies has dropped to 1,550 yuan/kW, with limited further decline expected [3]. - The tower segment is facing profitability challenges due to declining prices in domestic land tower business and lower-than-expected demand for offshore wind [4]. Group 3: Material and Component Insights - The casting and forging segment has faced revenue and profit pressure due to significant declines in sales prices in 2024 [5]. - In Q1 2025, the casting segment is expected to show substantial recovery in performance, driven by adjustments in revenue structure and fixed cost amortization [5]. - Price increases for castings have been largely realized, with expectations for continued upward production in Q2 and Q3, contributing to performance elasticity [5].

Core Viewpoint - The wind power sector is experiencing a significant upward trend in demand and profitability, with a notable performance turnaround in Q1 2025, indicating a potential industry inflection point [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q1 2025, new wind turbine tenders reached 28.6 GW, a year-on-year increase of 23%, reflecting sustained high demand [1][2]. - The wind power equipment sector achieved revenues of 37.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 15.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.25 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%, marking the first positive year-on-year growth in net profit for Q1 in three years [1][2]. - The overall industry is expected to see a revenue of 192 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.75 billion yuan, down 26.6% year-on-year, indicating a challenging year ahead despite the positive Q1 performance [2]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Profitability - The profitability of the complete machine manufacturing segment is stabilizing, with a slowdown in power station transfers impacting earnings, highlighting the growing importance of manufacturing profitability [2]. - The average sales price of wind turbines for leading companies is projected to decrease to 1,550 yuan/kW in 2024, with limited further decline expected [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant recovery in the performance of casting and forging companies, driven by revenue structure adjustments and fixed cost amortization during a traditionally low-demand season [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory in revenue and profitability, with key recommendations focusing on companies benefiting from domestic price stabilization and increased revenue from offshore projects, such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Mingyang Smart Energy [4]. - Companies in the subsea cable and foundation segments, like Dongfang Cable and Haile Wind Power, are also recommended due to their potential for profit growth driven by high demand [4]. - The casting and blade segments, including Jinlei Co. and Riyue Co., are highlighted for their significant performance elasticity due to supply-demand tightness and price increases [5].