智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，25Q1风电行业拐点确立，景气上行板块收入、盈利有望持 续向上，重点推荐三条更具盈利弹性的主线：1)受益于国内价格企稳回升、两海收入结构提升驱动盈利 趋势性改善的整机环节;2)受益于"两海"需求高景气、海外订单外溢，盈利有望向上的海缆、基础环 节;3)受益于供需紧张提价落地，需求释放下业绩弹性可观的铸锻件、叶片环节。 国金证券主要观点如下： 通缩周期下24FY板块收入、盈利承压 24年国内风电新增装机87GW，同比+10%;4Q24风机中标价格企稳由1400元/kW反弹至1500-1600 元/kW，但全年销售价格仍然大幅下降。通缩周期下，24年 SW风电设备实现营收1920亿元，同 比-3.5%;实现归母净利润57.5亿元，同比-26.6%。 2024年塔桩环节企业受国内陆塔业务单价下降、海风需求不及预期等因素影响盈利普遍承压，但出口业 务实现放量的大金重工受益于海外收入占比提升、盈利提升实现明显超额收益。2025年一季度海风相关 标的存货、合同负债双高，随着国内海风项目陆续开工流程，盈利弹性有望逐步体现。 铸件涨价落地，需求高景气业绩弹性有待释放 2024年，受销售 ...

Core Viewpoint - The wind power sector is experiencing a significant upward trend in demand and profitability, with a notable performance turnaround in Q1 2025, indicating a potential industry inflection point [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q1 2025, new wind turbine tenders reached 28.6 GW, a year-on-year increase of 23%, reflecting sustained high demand [1][2]. - The wind power equipment sector achieved revenues of 37.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 15.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.25 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%, marking the first positive year-on-year growth in net profit for Q1 in three years [1][2]. - The overall industry is expected to see a revenue of 192 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.75 billion yuan, down 26.6% year-on-year, indicating a challenging year ahead despite the positive Q1 performance [2]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Profitability - The profitability of the complete machine manufacturing segment is stabilizing, with a slowdown in power station transfers impacting earnings, highlighting the growing importance of manufacturing profitability [2]. - The average sales price of wind turbines for leading companies is projected to decrease to 1,550 yuan/kW in 2024, with limited further decline expected [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant recovery in the performance of casting and forging companies, driven by revenue structure adjustments and fixed cost amortization during a traditionally low-demand season [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory in revenue and profitability, with key recommendations focusing on companies benefiting from domestic price stabilization and increased revenue from offshore projects, such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Mingyang Smart Energy [4]. - Companies in the subsea cable and foundation segments, like Dongfang Cable and Haile Wind Power, are also recommended due to their potential for profit growth driven by high demand [4]. - The casting and blade segments, including Jinlei Co. and Riyue Co., are highlighted for their significant performance elasticity due to supply-demand tightness and price increases [5].