12月29日金属市场上演过山车行情。期货方面，沪银主力合约盘中录得超10%的涨幅，临近尾盘一 度翻绿；沪铜盘中突破10万元整数关口，尾盘涨幅显著收窄；铂、钯合约午后双双跌停。受商品波动影 响，股票市场有色金属板块下午同步收跌。 白银供需结构性赤字已持续5年。受益于光伏银浆和AI电子的工业需求推动，以及金银比的高位回 落，今年白银累计飙涨超150%。供给上，全球白银约70%-80%作为铜、铅、锌矿的副产品开采，2026 年内矿产银供给增量预计非常微弱，无法填补亿盎司级别的缺口。需求方面，光伏行业受高银价驱动推 行"去银化"技术，但迅速增长的装机量使得总体需求维持稳定；而AI算力中心和汽车电子的需求正在迅 速扩张，这部分对银价不敏感且相对刚性的需求将进一步为银价提供支撑。预计2026年白银仍将有超1 亿盎司的物理缺口。 相比之下，铜的短缺也正由预期短缺走向现实短缺，预计2026年全球铜市或将面临50万至100万吨 的深度缺口。供给方面，现有矿山品位下降叠加资本开支滞后，铜矿供应难有增量，市场对短缺的担忧 不断增强；而AI、电网的需求爆发带来大量刚性的用铜需求，长期来看铜价易涨难跌。 目前银、铜等金属前期涨幅过大引 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the semiconductor sector has shifted focus to analog chips, with leading stocks like Shengbang Co., Jihua Te, and Zhenlei Technology experiencing significant gains, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [3][4]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Signals - Analog Devices (ADI) announced a price increase for its entire product line, effective February 1, 2026, with military-grade products seeing a rise of up to 30% [3][5]. - Texas Instruments (TI) initiated a price hike in August 2023, affecting over 60,000 models with increases ranging from 10% to 30% [3][5]. - The collective price increases from these industry giants are interpreted as strong signals of a cyclical reversal in the analog chip market, which has struggled with inventory and demand issues over the past two years [3][5][6]. Group 2: Demand Recovery and Market Dynamics - The demand for analog chips is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, with signs of recovery in smartphone shipments, electric vehicle demand, and industrial automation driven by policy support [5][6]. - The current price increases differ fundamentally from the panic-driven hikes of 2020-2021, as they reflect strategic moves by leading companies to stabilize prices and restore profit margins rather than a response to supply chain disruptions [5][6]. Group 3: Implications for A-share Analog Chip Companies - A-share analog chip companies like Shengbang Co. and Jihua Te are expected to benefit from improved profit margins as a result of the price hikes initiated by global leaders [8][9]. - The average gross margin for the analog chip sector has declined from 42.2% in 2022 to 35.72% in 2024, with a slight recovery to 36.01% by Q3 2023, indicating the pressure faced by domestic manufacturers [9]. - If the price stability and potential increases lead to enhanced demand from downstream customers, A-share companies may experience a "volume-price rise" scenario, particularly in key areas like power management and automotive-grade chips [9].

半导体板块的上涨行情，这回轮到了模拟芯片。 12月25日早盘，A股模拟芯片板块强势行情延续，圣邦股份（300661.SZ）、杰华特（688141.SH）、臻 镭科技（688270.SH）等龙头股集体上扬，臻镭科技涨超13%，续创历史新高。此前的24日，该板块已 明显异动，南芯科技（688484.SH）、圣邦股份、臻镭科技等多只个股放量上涨。 近日模拟芯片行情的引爆点正是全球模拟芯片巨头亚德诺(ADI)近日向客户发出的涨价函——计划自 2026年2月1日起对全系列产品提价，其中军规级产品涨幅高达30%。更早之前，全球模拟芯片龙头德州 仪器(TI)已于今年8月率先开启涨价潮，覆盖6万余个型号，涨幅达10%-30%。 全球前两大巨头的相继提价，被市场迅速解读为行业周期反转的强烈信号。在过去两年以AI算力为主 导的半导体结构性牛市中，主要应用于消费电子、汽车、工控等传统领域的模拟芯片板块表现沉寂，持 续在消化库存与需求不振中挣扎。如今，巨头们的涨价"接力"，是否意味着漫长的下行周期已然触底？ 一场由"价格"率先启动的景气复苏，是否将引领整个板块走出低谷，迎来期盼已久的量价齐升机遇？ 龙头提价显示行业反转信号？ 亚德诺 ...

Group 1: Company Strategy and Operations - Zijin Mining Group is implementing a globalization strategy, operating multiple mining projects in 17 countries, including the completion of the acquisition of the Akim gold mine in Ghana and the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, which directly increases gold reserves and expands its footprint in West Africa and Central Asia [1] - The group has also completed a controlling acquisition of Zangge Mining, increasing its stake in the Julong copper mine and adding strategic potassium resource reserves, further strengthening its copper and lithium resource reserves [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Supply Issues - The supply of copper is being impacted by the shutdown of several large mines, leading to multiple downward revisions of global copper production forecasts for 2025 and 2026, alongside expectations of a potential 25% tariff on refined copper imports to the U.S. by mid-2026, which is causing a shift of copper inventories towards the U.S. and exacerbating shortages in other regions [2] Group 3: Demand Drivers and Future Outlook - Copper demand is expected to grow over the next decade, driven by investments in AI, green energy transitions, and defense restructuring, with the International Energy Agency predicting that existing and planned mining capacities will only meet about 70% of global copper demand by 2035 [3] - Zijin Mining has set a five-year plan aiming for a more than 49% increase in copper production and over 47% increase in gold production by 2028, with a 20% year-on-year increase in gold production and a 5% increase in copper production in the first three quarters of this year [4] Group 4: Financial Performance and Projections - The company reported a 10% year-on-year increase in revenue to 254.2 billion RMB and a 55% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders to 37.86 billion RMB in the first three quarters, exceeding market expectations, with a 44% increase in net cash flow from operating activities [4] - If metal prices continue to reach new highs, the earnings forecast for 2026 could be adjusted upwards, with an expected 28% year-on-year increase in earnings per share to 2.475 RMB, suggesting a favorable outlook for stock performance [5]

以下文章来源于市值观察 ，作者市值观察 市值观察 . 聚焦上市公司市值与价值 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 那么，储能市场明年真的会超预期爆发吗？ 储能到底有多火爆？ 2025年上半年， 全球储能市场还笼罩在产能过剩的阴影中，产业链 各环节 企业仍在价格战中内 卷。 然而进入下半年，形势骤然反转 ——无论是正极、负极材料，还是电解液、电芯企业，产能利用率 迅速 攀升 ， 纷纷 达到满产状态。 又是一个超级大周期。 作者丨 小李飞刀 来源丨 市值观察 近日，摩根士丹利在一场闭门会议中直言， 2026年资本市场的真正爆点可能不在大盘指数，而在于 当前已呈现"满产"状态的储能赛道。并预测， 全球储能市场在 2026年将实现50%以上的增长，乐 观情形下甚至冲击80%。 原因无它，储能需求爆发了。 据国家能源局及第三方机构数据， 2025年前三季度全球锂电储能装机170GWh，同比 增长 68% 。 其中， 国内新增并网 82GWh，同比增长61%，海外储能94GWh，同比增长74% ， 欧洲、中 东、澳大利亚等地成为主要增长区。 那么， 储能需求为何突然崛起？ 一方面，新能源电力的消纳压力日益凸显。 ...

2025.12. 08 果。上证指数受益于金融板块的稳定作用小幅收涨,成长板块成为市场核心热点,直接拉动 创业板指、深证成指上涨。 1863家下跌 涨跌停比 818 上涨家数显著多于下跌家数,市场情绪整体向 好,赚钱效应明显。券商板块受政策利好推动, 多只个股涨停;半导体板块受益于AI算力需求 增长,业绩预期提升;算力硬件因技术迭代和产 能释放,成为市场热点。煤炭、食品饮料、贵金 属等板块有所调整。 两市成交额 4 万亿元 ▲ 17.9% 两市成交额大幅放量,刷新近期市场高点,呈现 "量价齐升"格局,反映出市场情绪的修复和风 险偏好的提升。成交额的放量主要集中在科技 (CPO、商业航天、半导体)与金融(券商、保 险)板块,传统周期板块(煤炭、油气)表现相对 疲软。 资金情绪 散户资金净流入 机构聚焦科技与金融主线,资金流入电子与半导体、证券板块、通信设备,抛售煤炭、食品饮料板块。散户 跟风热点与避险抄底并存,资金流入电子元件、通信设备等科技板块,与主力形成共振,部分散户抄底食 品饮料、汽车整车行业。 l 情绪 75.85% 足球 胜 = 证 指 数 3924.0% ຂໍ້ມີຄົມສາສິລິຍາ ແລະມີ ...

中信建投研报认为，储能需求爆发的大背景下，制造业环节的盈利能力仍处于历史低位的情况是不合理 和不可持续的。当前终端IRR水平较高，预计可接受10-15分/Wh的利润让渡。我们预计2026年制造业环 节价格将上涨10-15分/Wh，税后对终端电站的成本上涨12分/Wh，这对于下游需求的影响是可控的，但 中游制造业利润将大幅增厚，看好储能需求驱动下，制造业上下游量价齐升、共振受益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of gold mining stocks has significantly improved in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising gold prices and increased production, with total net profits exceeding 52.4 billion yuan [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, 11 gold mining companies reported a total revenue of 545.1 billion yuan, reflecting an average year-on-year growth of 47% [2]. - The total net profit for these companies reached 52.4 billion yuan, with an average year-on-year increase of 52% [2][3]. - All companies in the sector achieved positive year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit [3]. Company Highlights - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) led the sector with a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 37.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.3% and 55.5% respectively [4]. - Zhaojin Mining (000506.SZ) exhibited the highest growth in net profit, with a third-quarter revenue of 144 million yuan, up 157%, and a net profit increase of 206.6% [5]. - Western Gold (601069.SH) also saw substantial growth, with a revenue of 10.4 billion yuan, up 106.2%, and a net profit increase of 168.0% [5]. Market Dynamics - The increase in gold mining companies' performance is attributed to a combination of rising gold prices and expanded sales volumes, creating a "volume-price synergy" effect [6]. - The London gold spot price rose by 40% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a nearly 17% increase in the third quarter alone, which has directly enhanced the profitability of gold mining operations [1][6]. Future Outlook - The gold sector is entering a transitional phase with new tax policies affecting gold trading, which may have limited impact on overall demand but could influence trading volumes of financial products [10]. - Analysts suggest that the resilience of gold mining companies' earnings is supported by improved resource reserves and cost control, indicating potential for continued profitability even if gold prices experience short-term fluctuations [9][11]. - The global central banks' continued gold purchases, with a net acquisition of 220 tons in the third quarter, provide long-term support for gold prices [11].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of gold stocks has significantly improved in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising gold prices and increased production, with a total net profit exceeding 52.4 billion yuan [4][6][10]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, 11 gold mining companies in A-shares achieved a total revenue of 545.1 billion yuan, representing an average year-on-year growth of 47% [6][8]. - The total net profit for these companies reached 52.4 billion yuan, with an average year-on-year growth of 52% [6][8]. - All companies in the sector reported positive year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit [7]. Group 2: Key Company Performances - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) led the sector with a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 37.9 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 10.33% and 55.45% respectively [8][9]. - Zhaojin Mining (000506.SZ) reported the highest growth in net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 191.2% [9]. - Western Gold (601069.SH) also saw substantial growth, with revenue increasing by 106.2% and net profit by 168.04% [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rise in gold prices, which increased by 40% in the first three quarters of 2025, has been a key factor supporting the performance of gold companies [4][10]. - The combination of high gold prices and increased sales volume has created a "volume-price rise" effect, benefiting the overall profitability of the sector [10]. - The market is currently experiencing a transition period due to fluctuations in gold prices and changes in tax policies, leading to discussions about the sustainability of high profits in gold stocks [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent fluctuations in gold prices are more of a short-term adjustment rather than a trend reversal, with long-term support for gold prices remaining intact [14]. - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to further support gold prices [15]. - The new gold trading tax policy is expected to have a limited impact on overall demand but may enhance trading volumes in financial products related to gold [13].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of gold mining stocks has significantly improved in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising gold prices and increased production, with total net profits exceeding 52.4 billion yuan [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, 11 gold mining companies achieved a total revenue of 545.15 billion yuan, representing an average year-on-year growth of 47% [3][6]. - The total net profit for these companies reached 52.43 billion yuan, with an average year-on-year growth of 52% [3][6]. - All companies in the sector reported positive year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit [4]. Group 2: Individual Company Highlights - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) led the sector with a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 37.86 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 10.33% and 55.45% respectively [6]. - Zhaojin Mining (000506.SZ) reported the highest net profit growth, with a third-quarter revenue of 144 million yuan, up 157%, and a net profit increase of 206.58% [6]. - Western Gold (601069.SH) also saw substantial growth, with a revenue of 10.4 billion yuan, up 106.2%, and a net profit increase of 168.04% [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rise in gold prices, which increased by 40% in the first three quarters of 2025, has been a key factor supporting the performance of gold mining companies [2][9]. - The increase in gold prices has led to higher profit margins in gold mining operations, while domestic demand for gold has also rebounded, contributing to increased production [9]. - Analysts suggest that the current high valuations of gold stocks, with PE ratios between 11 to 15, indicate significant room for valuation recovery compared to the historical average of around 20 [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The gold market is entering a transitional phase with rising uncertainties, particularly regarding the sustainability of high profits amid potential price fluctuations [10]. - Despite concerns, the fundamental resilience of gold mining companies is emphasized, with many firms improving resource reserves and cost control [10]. - The new gold trading tax policy, effective from November 1, is expected to have limited impact on overall demand but may influence trading volumes in financial products [11].