招金矿业（01818.HK）2025 年半年度业绩点评 量价齐升，利润持续增长 2025 年 08 月 26 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2025 年中期业绩公告。2025 年上半年公司实现营收 69.73 亿人民币，同比增长 39.15%，净利润 14.40 亿人民币，同比增长 160.44%；单 季度看，2025 年第二季度公司实现营收 40.35 亿人民币，同比增长 30.94%， 环比增长37.35%，净利润7.81亿人民币，同比增长135.51%，环比增长18.41%。 ➢ 点评：量价齐升驱动公司业绩，减值有所影响。量：2025 年上半年公司实 现矿产金产量 10.24 吨，同比增长约 13.77%，冶炼加工金产量 4.05 吨，同比下 降约 3.08%；价：2025 上半年黄金均价约 3077 美元/盎司，同比增长 39.8%； Q2 单季度黄金均价约 3281 美元/盎司，同比增长 40.3%，环比增长 14.3%。成 本：公司上半年国内矿产金克金综合成本人民币 216.20 元人民币╱克（2024 上 半年约 209.99 元人民币╱克），同比略有上升 2.96%，主要原因系折旧增加所致； 利润： ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨福耀玻璃（600660.SH） [Table_Title] 福耀玻璃中报点评：规模效应叠加量价齐升，业 绩表现超预期，首次中期分红 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司高附加值产品渗透率持续增长加之全球市占率持续提升，公司 2025Q2 实现营业收入115.4 亿元，同比+21.4%；归母净利润 27.7 亿元，同比+31.5%。规模效应叠加纯碱等原材料成本下 降，公司盈利水平表现优异。展望未来，福耀作为最专注的全球汽车玻璃龙头，护城河将不断 变宽，公司中长期投资价值凸显。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 福耀玻璃（600660.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 福耀玻璃中报点评：规模效应叠加量价齐升，业 2] 绩表现超预期，首次中期分红 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司 2025Q2 实现营业收入 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 1.456 billion yuan, up 18.96% year-on-year, and net profit of 174 million yuan, up 42.30% year-on-year [8] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 692 million yuan, an increase of 7.75% year-on-year, and a net profit of 92 million yuan, up 28.42% year-on-year [8] - The company benefits from a favorable demand structure, particularly in the wind power and home appliance sectors, which has led to a good performance in production and sales [8] - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit for 2025-2027, with expected figures of 408 million yuan, 506 million yuan, and 583 million yuan respectively, representing growth rates of 49%, 24%, and 15% [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 2.607 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 3.215 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 20.80% [7] - The net profit for 2023 was 296 million yuan, with an expected increase to 408 million yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 48.50% [7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.72 yuan in 2023 to 1.00 yuan in 2025 [7] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 16.69 in 2025, indicating a reasonable valuation compared to historical performance [7] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a strong performance compared to the CSI 300 index, with a notable increase of 54% over the past 12 months [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jinling Gold Mine has experienced a significant revival under the management of the multinational gold group, leading to substantial growth in company performance [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jinling Gold Mine is expected to produce 1.63 tons of gold in 2023 and 2.06 tons in 2024, with a sales cost of 227g/t and a total cost of 273g/t, showcasing a strong cost advantage [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 575 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 71.56% [1]. - In the first half of 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 560-600 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 134.99% based on a median estimate of 580 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Resource Potential - Jinling Gold Mine is located in a geologically favorable area with significant exploration potential, having increased its resource volume to 232 tons with an average grade of 1.17g/t as of the end of 2024 [2]. - The current resource estimates are based on a gold price of $1,750 per ounce, which is outdated compared to current market prices, indicating potential for substantial resource growth [2]. Group 3: Expansion Plans - The company has signed a feasibility study contract with Zijin Mining for a 10 million ton expansion project, which is expected to elevate the mine's processing capacity to 14 million tons per year [2]. - With an estimated long-term annual production of 15 tons of gold based on a grade of 1.3g/t and an overall recovery rate of 80%, Jinling Gold Mine is poised to become a world-class gold mining operation [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from economies of scale and reduced energy costs from infrastructure developments, leading to further decreases in total costs [3]. - Future projections estimate net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.263 billion yuan, 1.594 billion yuan, and 1.945 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.17, 1.47, and 1.80 yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is expected to see a significant increase in demand for civil aviation travel in 2025, driven by the acceleration of international flight schedules and the implementation of the "924" policy package, which is anticipated to boost domestic demand [1][7]. Industry Overview - The transportation sector experienced a decline of 3.22% in the week from July 28 to August 2, ranking 27th among 31 SW primary industries, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.75% during the same period [2]. - Various sub-sectors within transportation showed the following weekly performance: express delivery (-1.54%), cross-border logistics (-1.68%), ports (-2.40%), warehousing logistics (-2.44%), highways (-2.93%), railways (-3.17%), shipping (-4.20%), airport operations (-4.39%), road freight (-5.23%), and public transport (-6.50%) [2]. Aviation Sector Insights - By June 2025, major listed airlines in China have shown recovery rates in domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) compared to June 2019, with Air China at 150.62%, China Southern at 119.55%, and Spring Airlines at 166.49% [2]. - International and regional ASK recovery rates for the same airlines were 93.36% for Air China, 92.68% for China Southern, and 254.76% for Spring Airlines [2]. Oil and Currency Trends - As of August 1, 2025, Brent crude oil prices were reported at $69.67 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.97% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.39% [3]. - The exchange rate for the Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar was 7.1496, showing a slight depreciation of 0.11% week-on-week [3]. Airport Performance - Major airports in China showed recovery in domestic passenger throughput by June 2025, with Baiyun Airport at 120.08% and Shanghai Airport at 119.80% compared to 2019 [3]. - International passenger throughput recovery rates were 89.95% for Baiyun Airport and 104.41% for Shenzhen Airport [3]. Shipping and Port Sector - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was reported at 1551 points as of August 1, 2025, down 2.63% week-on-week and down 53.47% year-on-year [4]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was at 2018 points, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 10.59% but a year-on-year increase of 20.98% [4]. Road and Rail Transport - In June 2025, railway passenger volume reached 373 million, up 3.61% year-on-year, while road passenger volume was 948 million, down 3.72% [5]. - The express delivery sector achieved a revenue of 126.32 billion Yuan in June 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.00% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The aviation sector is poised for a recovery in demand, with airlines likely to benefit from improved pricing dynamics and increased passenger volumes [7]. - The airport sector is expected to see a recovery in international passenger traffic, supported by macroeconomic policies and consumer demand [7]. - The cross-border logistics sector is anticipated to benefit from the growth of cross-border e-commerce, while the express delivery sector remains promising due to the ongoing development of e-commerce [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 23.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 54%. The growth was driven by increased production and rising prices [6] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing construction projects, which will enhance copper and gold production [6] - The planned spin-off of its overseas gold mining assets for a Hong Kong listing is anticipated to improve the company's overall valuation [6] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised due to the significant increase in gold prices, with projected net profits of 43.83 billion yuan, 48.19 billion yuan, and 52.33 billion yuan respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 350.215 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.3% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 43.827 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 36.7% [5] - Earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 1.65 yuan [5] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 22.6% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 25.5% [5] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 12 for 2025 [5]

Core Insights - The summer travel season in 2025 is expected to see a significant increase in air travel demand, with an estimated 150 million passengers, representing a 5.4% year-on-year growth [1] - The average ticket price for economy class (excluding tax) is projected to reach 946 yuan, higher than the levels in 2019 and 2024, indicating a potential recovery in airline profitability [2][6] - The recovery of international routes is crucial for the aviation market, with a notable increase in flight operations and passenger demand, particularly in East Asia [3][6] Group 1: Summer Travel Trends - The number of scheduled passenger flights during the summer travel period is expected to reach 1.061 million, with a daily average of 17,000 flights, marking a 3.9% increase year-on-year [1] - Domestic flights are projected to account for 914,000 of these flights, a 2.7% increase, while international flights are expected to rise by 14.1% to 123,000 flights [1] - Popular routes are experiencing price increases, particularly flights from major cities to destinations like Urumqi and Lhasa, reflecting a broader trend of rising ticket prices [2] Group 2: International Route Recovery - International flight operations have seen a 21.1% increase in the first five months of the year, with inbound tourism orders surging by 141% during the May Day holiday [3] - The international aviation market is expected to recover to about 90% of the levels seen in 2019 during the summer travel period, with significant growth in East Asia and other regions [3] - Despite slower recovery in China-North America routes, there are positive signs, such as Delta Airlines resuming direct flights from Shanghai to Los Angeles [3] Group 3: Airline Profitability Outlook - The aviation industry is facing challenges with high competition and pressure from high-speed rail, leading to a continued "high passenger volume but low profitability" situation [6] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts a rise in net profits for Asia-Pacific airlines from $4 billion in the previous year to $4.9 billion in 2025, driven by increased passenger demand [6] - Airlines are encouraged to leverage tourism resources and develop new products that integrate travel and tourism, capitalizing on favorable visa policies and the recovery of international travel [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the dairy price has stabilized at the bottom, with an inflection point expected soon, as indicated by the recent data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showing the raw milk price at 3.07 CNY/kg, which has been fluctuating slightly for about 11 weeks [1] - Modern Dairy's data supports this, with a projected raw milk price of 3.61 CNY/kg in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, but the decline is narrowing, with a forecasted price of approximately 3.56 CNY/kg in the second half of 2024, indicating a low single-digit decline [1] - The industry is showing signs of a cyclical bottom, with a continuous reduction in the cattle supply, as evidenced by the monthly decrease of about 40,000 heads, leading to an expected cattle population of 5.8 to 5.9 million by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - Modern Dairy has demonstrated significant cost control effectiveness, with the cost of milk per kilogram dropping to 2.53 CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%, particularly in feed costs which fell by 16.7% to 1.95 CNY/kg [2] - The company is expected to see further reductions in feed costs, with a projected decrease of about 6.9% to 1.88 CNY/kg in the second half of 2024, while other costs remain stable at 0.58 CNY/kg [2] - This comprehensive cost optimization has resulted in an increase in the gross profit margin for raw milk business to 31.2%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, showcasing the management's ability to control costs and maintain operational resilience [2] Group 3 - The industry is experiencing a significant Matthew effect, with the top 20 dairy companies increasing their milk production by 14.9% despite a 2.8% decline in national milk production in 2024 [3] - Modern Dairy's market share is increasing, with raw milk sales reaching 2.893 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 13.6%, and an expansion in the breeding scale to 491,000 heads, up 9% [3] - The company is expected to enter a dual growth cycle of volume and price increase once milk prices begin to rise [3] Group 4 - Revenue forecasts for Modern Dairy are projected at 14.44 billion CNY, 15.28 billion CNY, and 16.06 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with net profits of 310 million CNY, 750 million CNY, and 1.1 billion CNY respectively [3] - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.04 CNY, 0.10 CNY, and 0.14 CNY, with a target price set at 1.3 HKD based on an increased valuation due to the anticipated industry reversal [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in international gold prices and its impact on domestic gold stocks, particularly focusing on Zijin Mining's performance amidst the gold price surge and its broader business operations in copper and other metals [1][20]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge and Market Reaction - International gold prices have surged over 25% this year, peaking at over $3500 per ounce on April 22, before experiencing a slight pullback [1]. - The rise in gold prices has led to a rally in domestic gold stocks, with notable performances from companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold, which saw its stock price double this year [1]. - Despite the overall market enthusiasm, Zijin Mining's stock has only increased by 16.7% year-to-date, underperforming compared to other gold stocks [1][3]. Group 2: Zijin Mining's Business Overview - Zijin Mining is a global mining giant with a diverse portfolio, including copper, gold, zinc, and lithium carbonate, with copper production exceeding 1 million tons last year, ranking fourth globally [3][4]. - The company has a significant gold production output of 72.9 tons, accounting for 25% of China's total gold production, and holds substantial gold reserves [3][4]. - Zijin Mining's copper and gold businesses have shown a trend of increasing production and revenue, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.4% and 49% in revenue and net profit from 2020 to 2024, respectively [7][9]. Group 3: Cost and Profitability Analysis - The production cost for gold bars in Q1 2025 was approximately 1300 USD per ounce, which is below the global average mining cost [5]. - Although Zijin Mining's overall mining costs have increased, the company maintains competitive extraction costs compared to industry peers [6][9]. - The company's profitability has improved, with gross and net profit margins rising significantly since 2020, although it still lags behind gold-focused companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold [9]. Group 4: Future Growth Prospects - Zijin Mining has outlined growth plans, expecting copper and gold production to increase by 7.5% and 16.4% respectively in 2025, with long-term targets set for 2028 [10]. - The article suggests that both copper and gold prices have potential for long-term growth, which supports Zijin Mining's continued performance [22]. - The company is heavily invested by both domestic and foreign institutions, indicating strong market confidence in its future performance [23]. Group 5: Market Influences and Price Outlook - The article notes that short-term fluctuations in Zijin Mining's stock price are closely tied to gold price movements, which may experience volatility due to various economic factors [24]. - Factors such as U.S. tax policy and trade negotiations could impact gold prices, suggesting that a clearer upward trend may emerge after these uncertainties are resolved [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from rising tungsten prices and increased production capacity, leading to a potential increase in both volume and price [3][4]. - The injection of mining assets, particularly the acquisition of the Shizhu Garden tungsten mine, is crucial for stabilizing the company's performance amid fluctuating market conditions [2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 14.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with a net profit of 939.45 million yuan, reflecting a 17.47% increase [1][5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.39 billion yuan, a 3.52% increase year-on-year, but a 24.86% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Market Position - The company aims to produce over 14,000 tons of hard alloy in 2024, maintaining its position as the global leader in this sector [2]. - The Shizhu Garden tungsten mine is expected to contribute significantly to the company's profits, with a projected net profit of 705 million yuan in 2024, accounting for approximately 70% of the total net profit [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tightening supply of tungsten is anticipated to drive prices higher, supported by a reduction in mining quotas and increasing domestic and international demand [3]. - The company is investing 1.8 billion yuan in upgrading the Shizhu Garden mine, which is expected to increase production capacity by approximately 59% by 2030 [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 16.40 billion yuan, 17.98 billion yuan, and 19.33 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 994.73 million yuan, 1.23 billion yuan, and 1.31 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.88, 17.73, and 16.57 for the years 2025 to 2027 [5].