隔夜油价小幅反弹，但短线反弹力度已经明显走弱，油价可能延续前期下跌趋势。 由于国际原油供应过剩，任何利空原油的因素都可能是推动油价进一步下跌的动力。近期美国总统特朗普就俄乌"和平计划"再 次向乌克兰施压，并称希望乌克兰迅速行动。有消息称，美国和俄罗斯官员预计将于本周末在美国迈阿密举行会晤，俄罗斯和 乌克兰实现和平的概率越来越大。 黄金方面： 隔夜黄金先扬后抑，短线快速刷新高点后回落，结构上有完成的可能，不排除中线见顶的可能性。 今年黄金走势表现突出，全年金价累计涨幅超过60%，推动这一轮黄金强势上涨的核心因素包括，经济扩张、风险与不确定 性、机会成本以及趋势动能，这四大变量共同作用，塑造了黄金在全球资产配置中的独特地位。而上述四大因素在2026年可能 仍将支撑金价，来自经济上的不确定性尤其明显，美国经济褐皮书已经发出了一系列的警示信号，美国经济可能会拖累全球， 特别是美国在全球化问题上的倒行逆施，会导致全球经济联系割裂，全球贸易衰退。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，黄金在全球资产配置中的多元化和风险对冲功能，已被全球投资者和政策制定者重 新认识和高度重视，也被证明是很有必要的。 技术面：黄金日线收小阴 ...

Core Insights - Bill Miller is recognized as one of the most legendary investors of the era, having outperformed the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years, a record that may be hard to replicate [2] - His investment journey has been marked by significant ups and downs, including a severe setback during the 2008 financial crisis, but he managed a remarkable comeback over the following decade [2][6] - Miller's investment philosophy is influenced by a blend of philosophy, investment strategies, and technology, making him a unique figure in the investment world [3][4] Investment Philosophy - Miller's insights often stem from a deep understanding of market psychology and a willingness to challenge conventional wisdom, as seen in his investments in Amazon and Bitcoin [4][6] - He emphasizes the importance of observing market prices closely, as they reflect emotional information, and he is known for using leverage in his investments [4] Current Market Perspective - In a conversation during a tumultuous market period in May 2022, Miller noted that such times often present the best investment opportunities [6][8] - He revealed that over 80% of his personal assets are concentrated in Amazon and Bitcoin, showcasing his strong belief in these assets despite widespread skepticism [6][8] Historical Context - Miller reflects on his career, stating that his greatest pride lies not in his record of outperforming the market but in his sustained recovery and performance in the years following the 2008 crisis [6][8] - He draws parallels between current market conditions and historical inflationary environments, suggesting that many younger investors have not experienced prolonged periods of rising interest rates and inflation [14][15]

Group 1: Conference Overview - The "Global Trade Changes and Bank Credit Risk Management Seminar" was successfully held in Nanjing, focusing on the challenges and strategies for credit risk management in the banking sector amid significant global trade shifts [1][2] - The seminar gathered experts and representatives from financial institutions to discuss the impact of rising trade protectionism and geopolitical risks on global economic growth and banking credit risk management [1][2] Group 2: Key Insights from Experts - Professor Chen Zhongyang emphasized the distinction between risk and uncertainty, suggesting that markets should manage risks while governments should govern uncertainties, advocating for the development of export trade insurance services as a dual risk governance mechanism [2] - Huang Jinlao, Chairman of Jiangsu Digital Finance Association, highlighted the importance of maintaining a stable asset-liability structure and rational performance growth for banks like SuShang Bank, which has served 78.39 million personal customers and has total assets of 139.41 billion yuan as of Q1 2025 [3] - Jin Xueliang from Zhejiang Financial Promotion Association stressed the need for scientific prevention and early identification of credit risks, advocating for a focus on integrity culture, entrepreneur spirit, and technology-driven risk management [4] Group 3: Digital Transformation and Risk Management - The importance of digital transformation in enhancing credit risk management was underscored, with the application of big data and AI technologies to improve risk identification, assessment, and response efficiency [5][6] - Experts discussed the necessity for banks to adapt their asset allocation, client admission, and financial products in response to the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, emphasizing the need for alignment with national strategies and a focus on ESG responsibilities [5][6] Group 4: Financial Stability and Support for Enterprises - The need for financial institutions to maintain stable lending practices was highlighted as crucial for supporting foreign trade enterprises affected by tariffs, with suggestions for low-interest loans and flexible online services to enhance financing efficiency [7] - SuShang Bank's approach to risk management involves seeking certainty amid uncertainty, with plans to accelerate the digitalization of risk management and develop resilient financial products for SMEs [7]