Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under significant pressure amid a strong equity market, leading to a notable increase in long-term yields and a decline in bond prices [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 18, the 30-year government bond futures contract fell by 1.33% to 116.09, while the 10-year contract dropped by 0.29% to 108.015 [3]. - The 30-year government bond yield rose by 6 basis points to 2.053%, and the 10-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 1.785% [3]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Investors are experiencing increased difficulty in the bond market, with the returns from coupon payments being easily offset by short-term interest rate increases [3][4]. - The current environment is characterized by low returns and high volatility, which may persist into the next year [4]. Group 3: Macro Factors - The bond market's decline is attributed to macroeconomic changes and shifts in capital allocation rather than merely the performance of the equity market [5]. - The bond market is seen as vulnerable to systemic changes, with a lack of sustained upward momentum throughout the year [5]. Group 4: Credit Cycle and Risk Appetite - The debt cycle is currently in a "clearing phase," with a noted improvement in market expectations despite negative growth in medium to long-term credit for households and enterprises [6]. - There is a shift in risk appetite, with non-bank deposits reaching historical highs, aligning with the strength of the equity market [6]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank's emphasis on "preventing empty transfers" suggests a focus on improving the efficiency of fund usage rather than tightening liquidity [7][8]. - Although liquidity is expected to remain loose in the short term, the window for overall easing may be delayed, with potential future measures to stabilize the funding environment [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Data - **Futures Settlement Prices and Weekly Changes**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures T2509.CFE settled at 108.61 with a 0.15% weekly increase, T2512.CFE at 108.505 with a 0.07% increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures TF2509.CFE at 105.82 with a 0.09% increase, TF2512.CFE at 105.875 with a 0.09% increase; 2 - year Treasury bond futures TS2509.CFE at 102.37 with a 0.02% increase, TS2512.CFE at 102.436 with a 0.04% increase; 30 - year Treasury bond futures TL2509.CFE at 119.25 with a 0.13% increase, TL2512.CFE at 118.880 with a 0.05% increase [7] - **Spread Data**: The T2509 - T2512 inter - term spread was 0.105 with a weekly decline of 0.523; TF2509 - TF2512 was - 0.055 with a decline of 12.000; TS2509 - TS2512 was - 0.066 with an increase of 7.250. The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 300.870 with a decline of 0.088; 2TF - T was 103.030 with an increase of 0.020; TS - TF was 98.920 with a decline of 0.054 [7] - **Spot Bond Yields**: The 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.35% with a weekly decline of 1.99 BP; 2Y was 1.40% with a decline of 2.69 BP; 3Y was 1.42% with a decline of 2.86 BP; 5Y was 1.54% with a decline of 2.39 BP; 7Y was 1.65% with a decline of 1.67 BP; 10Y was 1.69% with a decline of 1.88 BP; 30Y was 1.96% with an increase of 0.90 BP. The 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.50% with an increase of 0.04 BP; 3Y was 1.63% with a decline of 0.99 BP; 5Y was 1.66% with a decline of 0.62 BP; 7Y was 1.79% with a decline of 0.01 BP; 10Y was 1.78% with an increase of 1.59 BP; 30Y was 2.05% with an increase of 0.16 BP [7] - **Funding Rates**: The DR001 inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.31% with a weekly decline of 0.23 BP; DR007 was 1.43% with an increase of 0.09 BP; DR014 was 1.47% with a decline of 6.13 BP. The SHIBOR1M rate was 1.53% with a decline of 2.34 BP; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a decline of 0.86 BP [7] 2. CPI and PPI Data - **CPI Data**: The CPI in July was 0.4%, up 0.5 pct compared to the previous period, and the CPI in February 2024 was 0.8%, up 0.4 pct compared to the previous period. There were also various historical CPI data comparisons [21] - **PPI Data**: The PPI had changes such as a 0.4 pct change to - 0.2%, a 1 pct change to - 0.2 pct, etc [24]

国债期货日报 2025/8/5 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 端在期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 项目 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.540 | 0.05% T主力成交量 | 69470 | -5041↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.755 | 0.04% TF主力成交量 | 52618 | -9215↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.348 | -0.01% TS主力成交量 | 3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Treasury bond futures significantly corrected this week. The "anti-involution" signal and the market's expectation of real estate updates created short-term bearish sentiment. The stock-bond seesaw effect continued to amplify, and the bond market was under full pressure. However, the current weak economic fundamentals remain unchanged, coupled with a balanced and loose capital situation. There is still room for policy easing under low inflation, and the long-term support logic of the bond market is difficult to be substantially broken in the short term. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after confirming stability [94]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Bond Futures Contracts**: The main contracts of 30-year (TL2509), 10-year (T2509), 5-year (TF2509), and 2-year (TS2509) Treasury bond futures fell by 0.49%, 0.25%, 0.24%, and 0.09% respectively this week. The closing prices of the main contracts of each term are presented in corresponding charts [12][16][22]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all increased. The open interests of the main contracts of TS and T decreased, while those of TF and TL increased [30]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: "14th Five-Year Plan" achievements show that China's economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, and this year's economic aggregate is expected to reach about 1.4 quadrillion yuan. In June, CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. The State Council issued a notice on further strengthening employment stabilization policies. In the first half of 2025, significant breakthroughs were made in prospecting for important minerals in China [33]. - **Overseas News**: US President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1, 2025, and plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on 22 countries starting from August. The Fed's internal differences over the impact of tariffs on the inflation path have increased, but the policy tone remains cautiously wait-and-see [35][93]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The yield spreads between 10-year and 5-year, 10-year and 1-year Treasury bonds, as well as the spreads between the main contracts of 2-year and 5-year, 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures all narrowed slightly. The inter - term spreads of 10-year contracts narrowed slightly, while those of 30-year contracts widened slightly. The inter - term spreads of 2-year contracts narrowed slightly, and those of 5-year contracts fluctuated [43][47][53]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased significantly [64]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates increased, while 2 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates decreased. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.47%. The yields of domestic Treasury bonds weakened, with the 1 - 7Y yields rising by about 3.2 - 4.0bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields rising by about 1.9bp and 2.5bp to 1.66% and 1.87% respectively. The yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds both narrowed slightly [68][72]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 425.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market this week, with 652.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.47% [75]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bond issuance was 1.145151 trillion yuan, with a total repayment of 850.151 billion yuan and a net financing of 295 billion yuan [77]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1475, with a cumulative increase of 60 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased slightly, the VIX index decreased significantly, the 10 - year Treasury yield in China increased slightly, and the A - share risk premium decreased [81][87][90]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In June, the price level continued to be under pressure. The CPI index improved marginally, turning from a year - on - year decrease to an increase. The PPI of industrial products remained in the negative range, falling into a deflationary range of negative growth for 7 consecutive months. The "anti - involution" signal and the issuance of fiscal subsidy funds in July may support subsequent prices and promote a moderate recovery of the inflation level [93]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US labor market continues to show resilience, and trade risks have resurfaced. The Fed's internal differences over the impact of tariffs on the inflation path have increased, but the policy tone remains cautiously wait - and - see, and there is no consensus on the expectation of interest rate cuts [93]. - **Investment Strategy**: Observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after confirming stability [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy of promoting the construction of a unified national market and rectifying low - price and disorderly competition is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but the effect may take a long time to appear. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The 6 - month China Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. After the cross - half - year period, the decline in capital interest rates is beneficial to bond bulls. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.11%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [3] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 525.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 491.9 billion yuan [3] - **Funding Market**: On Friday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funding market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.32% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.42% (1.47% the previous day) [3] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.77 BP to 1.35%, the 5 - year fell 0.04 BP to 1.49%, the 10 - year rose 0.26 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year rose 0.30 BP to 1.85% [3] - **International Trade**: On July 3, the US government allowed General Electric Aerospace to resume supplying jet engines to Comac. The US also lifted export restrictions on Chinese companies by chip design software developers and ethane producers this week. The US President signed 12 trade letters and plans to send them on Monday. Talks with the EU on trade are progressing, and major news may be announced in the next two days [3] - **Domestic Policy**: Since July 5, 2025, anti - dumping duties have been imposed on imported brandy from the EU. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market and called on local governments to implement policies according to local conditions [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The policy of promoting the construction of a unified national market and rectifying low - price and disorderly competition is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but it may take a long time for the effects to show. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The 6 - month China Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. After the cross - half - year period, the decline in capital interest rates is beneficial to bond bulls. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [4] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band - trading operations [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the main changes in the trading volume and open interest of Treasury bond futures are the significant increase in the trading volume of ultra - long Treasury bond futures and the open interest of two - year Treasury bond futures. Short - duration Treasury bond futures have become the main hedging instruments this year. The hedging effect of short - duration Treasury bond futures is better, and the optimal hedging combination is a high - duration cash bond plus a low - duration Treasury bond futures hedging combination. The cross - variety arbitrage strategy performed well in the first half of 2025, while the timing strategy performed averagely. The combination of equal - weighted arbitrage and timing strategies effectively controlled the maximum drawdown and achieved good returns [1][2][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview and Basis - Spread and Inter - Delivery Spread Review - **Market Overview**: In 2025, the trading volume of ultra - long Treasury bond futures increased significantly, and the open interest of two - year Treasury bond futures increased substantially. The trading - to - open - interest ratio of short - duration Treasury bond futures decreased significantly. For example, the average daily trading volume of 30 - year Treasury bond futures in the first half of 2025 was about 110,000 contracts, an 87% increase from 2024. The open interest of two - year Treasury bond futures increased by 63% compared to 2024. Except for TL, the trading - to - open - interest ratio of Treasury bond futures decreased this year [10] - **Basis - Spread and Inter - Delivery Spread**: In the first half of the year, the IRR of Treasury bond futures first rose and then fell. The basis of TF and TS was significantly lower than that of the same period in 2024, and the TS basis fell into the negative range. The inter - delivery spread mainly declined during the roll - over period. The 2509 contract's inter - delivery spread is currently at a relatively low level in the same historical period, and the near - term contract still has positive - arbitrage space, putting some downward pressure on the inter - delivery spread [11] 2. Performance of Treasury Bond Futures Hedging Combinations - Different varieties of Treasury bond futures short - hedging combinations outperformed the buy - and - hold benchmark. The optimal hedging combination is a high - duration cash bond plus a low - duration Treasury bond futures hedging combination. For example, the TS hedging combination of the 5 - 7 - year Treasury bond index achieved an annualized return of 7.1%, a Sharpe ratio of 4.26, and a maximum drawdown of only 0.2%. Looking ahead, the short - hedging effect of short - duration Treasury bond futures is still promising, but the difference in carry among different varieties has significantly converged [33][34] 3. Analysis of the Performance of Treasury Bond Futures Quantitative Strategies 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Timing Strategy Performance - The timing strategy is based on multi - factor models constructed by various factors affecting interest rates. The overall performance of the timing strategy in 2025 was volatile, with drawdowns in the first quarter. From 2022 to the present, the annualized return of the multi - variety equal - weighted net value in the rolling out - of - sample window was 6.7%, the Sharpe ratio was 1.71, and the maximum drawdown was 3.4%. The timing effect of ultra - long bonds was the best, while the performance of medium - and short - duration varieties was average [45] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy Performance - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy aims to remove unilateral risks by dynamically adjusting the portfolio. The strategy's returns come from interest - rate range fluctuations and Treasury bond futures basis carry. The cross - variety arbitrage strategy performed well in the first half of 2025. For example, the annualized return of the duration - neutral cross - variety arbitrage strategy between TS and T from 2022 to the present in the rolling out - of - sample window was 5.1%, and the Sharpe ratio was 1.63 [49] 3.3 Effect of Equal - Weighted Allocation of Timing and Cross - Variety Strategies - The combination of cross - variety arbitrage and timing strategies can significantly reduce the drawdown risk. Based on the equal - weighted allocation of the arbitrage and timing strategies, the maximum drawdown of the combination in the first half of 2025 was effectively controlled within 1.1%, with an annualized return of 6.3%, a Sharpe ratio of 2.02, and a Calmar ratio of 5.97. It is recommended to retain a certain proportion of cross - variety arbitrage strategies in the unilateral portfolio [52]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial bond sector is "oscillating slightly bullish" [1]. 2) Core View of the Report - Chinese economic data in April showed that fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than expected. In May, the official manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line for the second consecutive month. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks in May, it was conducive to the recovery of export orders to the US. Industrial product prices continued to be under pressure, and manufacturers were cautious about future demand. After the US federal appellate court's decision on May 29, treasury bond futures recovered most of the losses on Thursday, and short - term treasury bond futures may oscillate slightly bullish [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Affected by the news of the reversal of the US tariff ruling, last Friday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated horizontally at a high level after rising. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.56%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.21%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.14%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.04% [1]. Important Information - **Open Market**: Last Friday, the central bank conducted 291.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 142.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, achieving a net investment of 148.6 billion yuan [1]. - **Funds Market**: Last Friday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funds market increased compared with the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average for the whole day was 1.48% (1.41% the previous day), and DR007's weighted average for the whole day was 1.66% (1.63% the previous day) [1]. - **Cash Bond Market**: Last Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds decreased compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield decreased 2.58 BP to 1.46%, the 5 - year decreased 2.63 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year decreased 1.65 BP to 1.67%, and the 30 - year decreased 2.00 BP to 1.90% [1]. - **Other Information**: In May, the central bank carried out 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations. In April, the US core PCE price index increased 2.5% year - on - year, the lowest since March 2021. In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, below the boom - bust line for the second consecutive month. The US president announced to raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50%. On June 2, it was announced that the US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the lowest since November last year [1][3]. Market Logic - Chinese economic growth in April remained resilient. In May, the manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line, but the production index returned to the expansion range, and new export orders rebounded. Industrial product prices continued to be under pressure, and manufacturers were cautious about future demand. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping. After the US federal appellate court's decision on May 29, treasury bond futures may oscillate slightly bullish in the short term [3]. Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy in April maintained resilience, with industrial production and exports better than market expectations, while fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations [1][3] - After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping, and after the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in May, it is unlikely to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate again in the short - to - medium term [3] - The 90 - day window period reached in the Sino - US economic and trade talks brought a short - term respite to the market, but long - term uncertainties remain [3] - The prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate horizontally on Thursday, and the short - term of treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated slightly downward in the morning session, and showed horizontal fluctuations in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 fell 0.04%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2509 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 64.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 90 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.48% (1.51% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.57% (unchanged from the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.26 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year rose 0.02 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year rose 0.86 BP to 1.72%, and the 30 - year rose 0.20 BP to 1.89% [1] - Eurozone: On May 22, it was announced that the preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous value 49.0); the preliminary value of the service PMI in May was 48.9, the lowest level since January 2024 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.1) [1] - US: On May 22, it was announced that the preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.1, previous value 50.2), and the preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.8, previous value 50.8) [1] Market Logic - From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year (market expectation 4.3%, 4.2% from January to March). In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year (market expectation 5.5%, 5.9% in March). In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year in real terms (market expectation 5.2%, 6.5% year - on - year in the first quarter) [1] - In April, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 8.1% year - on - year (market forecast 2.0%, 12.4% in March). In April, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% (11.55% in March), and exports to the US decreased by 21.03% year - on - year (9.09% in March). Due to the impact of tariffs, China's exports to the US decreased significantly in April, while exports to ASEAN accelerated, possibly due to re - export factors [1] Trading Strategy - For trading - oriented investments, conduct band operations. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "slightly long" rating for Treasury bonds in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly on Tuesday, and may continue to fluctuate in the short - term. The market is affected by factors such as monetary policy expectations, economic data, and government's promotion of consumption and domestic demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened slightly higher or flat. After a small rise in the morning, they fell back, and fluctuated narrowly horizontally in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2506 fell 0.03%, the 10 - year T2506 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2506 fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2506 fell 0.04% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 164.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 167.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 100 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 102.9 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market rose slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.70% throughout the day (1.65% the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.71% (1.70% the previous trading day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.99 BP to 1.42%, the 5 - year fell 0.28 BP to 1.50%, the 10 - year fell 0.01 BP to 1.66%, and the 30 - year remained flat at 1.86% [1] - **Policy Signal**: On April 15, Premier Li conducted research in Beijing, stating that greater efforts should be made to promote consumption, expand domestic demand, and strengthen the domestic cycle. A special action to boost consumption should be implemented, and more efforts should be made in stabilizing employment, increasing income, and strengthening security to enhance consumption ability and willingness [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On April 7, People's Daily pointed out that there is sufficient room for adjustment of monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. On April 9, Premier Li said that more proactive and effective macro - policies should be implemented. In March, China's CPI and PPI both fell 0.4% month - on - month, increasing the downward pressure on domestic inflation. The new social financing and credit data in March were better than expected, and the export data in March were also better than expected. The Wande A - share index fluctuated narrowly on Tuesday, and Treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [3]