研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘集体低开，早盘上涨收复失地，午后震荡回落，特别在 股指收涨后，较大幅度回落，截至收盘 30年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603下跌 0.44%， | | | | | 10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.08%，5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.06%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.03%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 286 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 5288 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净回笼 5002 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金市场隔夜利率保持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.26%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.46%，上一交易日加 | | | ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上周五国债期货主力合约大致平开，早盘上涨一波后横向波动至收盘，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.36%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.10%，5 年期 TF2603 | | | | | 上涨 0.05%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.03%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：上周五央行开展了 930 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 562 亿元逆 | | | | | 回购到期，当日合计净投放 368 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：上周五银行间资金市场隔夜利率维持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.26%，上一交易日加权平均 1.26%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.52%，上一交易日加 | | | | | 权平均 1.4 ...

| | 1Y | | 2Y | 34 | 54 | | 74 | | 10Y 超长债 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债 | | | | | | 1.3450 0.10 1.3700 1.6050 2.80 1.7275 3.85 1.8525 1.8525 1.70 2.2475 | | 68 | 2.65 | 68 | 293 | | | | | 250017.IB | 250023.IB | 250020.IB | | 250018.IB | | 250016.IB 2500006.IB | | | | 国开 | 1.5100 | 14 | | | | 0.00 1.5400 1.00 1.6700 1.00 1.7325 2.25 1.8950 2.50 1.9330 2.65 2.0100 2.00 25 | | | | | | | | 160213.IB | | 240202.IB | 09250207.IB | 250208.IB | | 220215.IB | ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一国债期货主力合约多数高开，早盘震荡下行，午后再下一城后横向波动，截至 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 下跌 | 0.28%，10 | ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二国债期货主力合约多数高开、TL 低开，早盘震荡上行，午后略有回落，全天波 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 动幅度较小，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.19%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.05%，5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.03%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 1353 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 1173 亿元逆 | | | | | 回购到期，当日合计净投放 180 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周二银行间资金市场隔夜利率维持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.45%，上一交易日加 | | | | | 权平均 1.44%。 | ...

12月4日，债券市场大幅下跌。国债期货全线飘绿，30年期国债期货主力合约盘中创2024年11月23日以来新低。现 券市场上，30年期、10年期国债活跃券收益率上行。 国债期货全线飘绿 | CFFEX 30年期国债期货 △ | | > | CFFEX 5年期国债期货 C | | A | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | 30年主连 TL.CFE | 112.450 | -1.04% | 5年主连 | 105.595 | -0.24% | | | | | TFCFE | | | | TL2512 TL2512 CFE | 113.000 | -0.69% | TF2512 | 105.615 | -0.15% | | | | | TF2512.CFE | | | | TL2603 TL2603.CFE | 112.450 | -1.04% | TF2603 | 105.595 | -0.24% | | | | | TF2603 CFE | | | | TL2606 TL2606.CFE | 112.6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "Oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoints - The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly opened flat on Wednesday, with the 30 - year contract opening much lower and all contracts declining throughout the day. The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the macro - economy in the fourth quarter. Treasury bond futures may open higher today, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly opened flat, with the 30 - year contract TL2603 opening much lower. By the close, TL2603 fell 0.86%, T2603 fell 0.36%, TF2603 fell 0.22%, and TS2603 fell 0.05%. The Wande All - A index opened slightly lower, rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon, closing up 0.25% with a trading volume of 1.80 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous trading day's 1.83 trillion yuan [3][4] Important Information - Open market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 213.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 310.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 97.2 billion yuan [3] - Money market: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (previous day: 1.32%), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (previous day: 1.45%) [3] - Cash bond market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds rose compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year yield rose 0.42 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 1.84 BP to 1.62%, the 10 - year rose 1.61 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.75 BP to 2.19% [3] - Policy: On November 25th, six departments issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027 and form a high - quality development pattern by 2030 [3] Market Logic - Unemployment rates for certain age groups are higher than last year, indicating that efforts to stabilize growth and employment are still needed. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of November increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and its imports from China increased by 5.6%, suggesting good export prospects for China in November. The overall inflation level in China remains moderate, and the decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities has widened, with housing prices still bottoming out [3] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial (treasury bond) sector is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The market's reaction to the tariff information is generally optimistic, believing that the probability of a compromise between China and the US in the future is relatively high, resulting in a narrowing decline in the stock market and a corresponding correction in the bond market. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short - term [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated horizontally in the morning session, and slightly declined in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.37%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.02% [1] - The Wande All - A index opened significantly lower due to the US President's tariff threat on Friday, quickly rebounded in the morning, fluctuated horizontally, and then oscillated upward in the afternoon, recovering most of the losses. The trading volume was 2.37 trillion yuan, a slight decline from the previous trading day's 2.53 trillion yuan [1] Important Information - Open market: On Monday, the central bank conducted 137.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with no reverse repurchase due on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 137.8 billion yuan [1] - Funding market: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, up from 1.39% the previous day [1] - Cash bond market: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds generally increased compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield rose 1.00 BP to 1.49%, the 5 - year rose 1.89 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year rose 1.77 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year rose 4.01 BP to 2.27% [1] - China's exports in September (in US dollars) increased 8.3% year - on - year (previous value: 4.4%); imports increased 7.4% (previous value: 1.3%); the trade surplus was 90.45 billion US dollars (previous value: 102.33 billion US dollars) [1] Market Logic - China's September exports in US dollars increased 8.3% year - on - year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The market's reaction to the tariff information is generally optimistic, believing that the probability of a compromise between China and the US in the future is relatively high, leading to a narrowing decline in the stock market and a corresponding correction in the bond market. Overnight US stocks also rose, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recovering half of Friday's losses [1] Trading Strategy - For trading - type investments, conduct band operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under significant pressure amid a strong equity market, leading to a notable increase in long-term yields and a decline in bond prices [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 18, the 30-year government bond futures contract fell by 1.33% to 116.09, while the 10-year contract dropped by 0.29% to 108.015 [3]. - The 30-year government bond yield rose by 6 basis points to 2.053%, and the 10-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 1.785% [3]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Investors are experiencing increased difficulty in the bond market, with the returns from coupon payments being easily offset by short-term interest rate increases [3][4]. - The current environment is characterized by low returns and high volatility, which may persist into the next year [4]. Group 3: Macro Factors - The bond market's decline is attributed to macroeconomic changes and shifts in capital allocation rather than merely the performance of the equity market [5]. - The bond market is seen as vulnerable to systemic changes, with a lack of sustained upward momentum throughout the year [5]. Group 4: Credit Cycle and Risk Appetite - The debt cycle is currently in a "clearing phase," with a noted improvement in market expectations despite negative growth in medium to long-term credit for households and enterprises [6]. - There is a shift in risk appetite, with non-bank deposits reaching historical highs, aligning with the strength of the equity market [6]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank's emphasis on "preventing empty transfers" suggests a focus on improving the efficiency of fund usage rather than tightening liquidity [7][8]. - Although liquidity is expected to remain loose in the short term, the window for overall easing may be delayed, with potential future measures to stabilize the funding environment [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Data - **Futures Settlement Prices and Weekly Changes**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures T2509.CFE settled at 108.61 with a 0.15% weekly increase, T2512.CFE at 108.505 with a 0.07% increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures TF2509.CFE at 105.82 with a 0.09% increase, TF2512.CFE at 105.875 with a 0.09% increase; 2 - year Treasury bond futures TS2509.CFE at 102.37 with a 0.02% increase, TS2512.CFE at 102.436 with a 0.04% increase; 30 - year Treasury bond futures TL2509.CFE at 119.25 with a 0.13% increase, TL2512.CFE at 118.880 with a 0.05% increase [7] - **Spread Data**: The T2509 - T2512 inter - term spread was 0.105 with a weekly decline of 0.523; TF2509 - TF2512 was - 0.055 with a decline of 12.000; TS2509 - TS2512 was - 0.066 with an increase of 7.250. The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 300.870 with a decline of 0.088; 2TF - T was 103.030 with an increase of 0.020; TS - TF was 98.920 with a decline of 0.054 [7] - **Spot Bond Yields**: The 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.35% with a weekly decline of 1.99 BP; 2Y was 1.40% with a decline of 2.69 BP; 3Y was 1.42% with a decline of 2.86 BP; 5Y was 1.54% with a decline of 2.39 BP; 7Y was 1.65% with a decline of 1.67 BP; 10Y was 1.69% with a decline of 1.88 BP; 30Y was 1.96% with an increase of 0.90 BP. The 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.50% with an increase of 0.04 BP; 3Y was 1.63% with a decline of 0.99 BP; 5Y was 1.66% with a decline of 0.62 BP; 7Y was 1.79% with a decline of 0.01 BP; 10Y was 1.78% with an increase of 1.59 BP; 30Y was 2.05% with an increase of 0.16 BP [7] - **Funding Rates**: The DR001 inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.31% with a weekly decline of 0.23 BP; DR007 was 1.43% with an increase of 0.09 BP; DR014 was 1.47% with a decline of 6.13 BP. The SHIBOR1M rate was 1.53% with a decline of 2.34 BP; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a decline of 0.86 BP [7] 2. CPI and PPI Data - **CPI Data**: The CPI in July was 0.4%, up 0.5 pct compared to the previous period, and the CPI in February 2024 was 0.8%, up 0.4 pct compared to the previous period. There were also various historical CPI data comparisons [21] - **PPI Data**: The PPI had changes such as a 0.4 pct change to - 0.2%, a 1 pct change to - 0.2 pct, etc [24]