| 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | --- | --- | | ——资产配置月报 202601 | | | 权益、商品延续强势，风险资产占优： | 2025-12-30 | | 20251226 多资产配置周报 | | | 当低利率邂逅风偏回归，资产配置被动为 | 2025-12-12 | | 盾，主动为矛：——2026 年多资产配置展 | | | 望 | | | 交易平稳，预期主导：——资产配置月报 | 2025-12-03 | | 202512 | | | 资产配置策略中低波分化，行业策略转 | 2025-12-03 | | 向：——资产配置模型月报 202512 | | 资产配置 | 定期报告 国内风险评价稳步下行，A 股/商品占优 20260112 多资产配置周报 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 13 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S08601 ...

Group 1 - The index is expected to consolidate and gather strength before reaching new highs, with the recent tariff delay being fully priced in by the market, leading to a rise in major indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3555.22 points [3][14] - The market's optimistic sentiment is currently prevailing, but there is insufficient risk pricing for potential negative surprises regarding tariffs, which may hinder further declines in risk evaluation [3][14] - The market's recent rise is primarily driven by an increase in risk appetite, with the ChiNext Index, CSI 1000 Index, and All A Index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [4][15] Group 2 - Short-term themes are expected to rotate between policy expectations and industrial trends, with a focus on the "anti-involution" sector and real estate, which has seen a 6.1% increase this week due to anticipated policy developments [6][16] - The "anti-involution" sector, particularly in steel, pork, and certain segments of new energy, is highlighted as a potential area of focus due to high policy expectations following recent government meetings [6][16] - The trading of industrial trends is expected to continue, with short-term attention on sectors such as stablecoins, rare earths, nuclear fusion, military industry, deep-sea economy, artificial intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7][17]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The expectation of improved national governance effectiveness is driving an increase in risk appetite among investors[4] - Despite anticipated GDP growth pressure, the market has already priced in the "high-low" trend and inflation concerns, suggesting that macro policy efficiency and international comparisons are undervalued[4] - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to enhance the sense of gain for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and workers, potentially leading to a decrease in risk assessments[5] Group 2: Policy Implications - Recent policies, such as the "Guarantee for Payment to SMEs" regulation, aim to shorten payment terms, which may improve profitability quality for SMEs[6] - The focus of policies is shifting towards more elastic service consumption, reflecting a change in consumer demand from essential goods to optional services as income rises[7] - Local governments are expanding service consumption capabilities, indicating a policy shift towards enhancing consumer protection and infrastructure development[7] Group 3: Global Context - Global geopolitical instability, including fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, is leading investors to recognize the stability of China's national governance[9] - The certainty of China's governance is becoming a driving force for foreign investment, as it contrasts with the uncertainties in Western economies[9] - The market has already factored in pressures on GDP growth and inflation, but the certainty of governance and efforts to improve economic structure remain undervalued, presenting a fundamental reason to invest in China[10]