投资策略 | 定期报告 中东冲突加剧，大宗涨价升温 策略周度思考 20260301 研究结论 风险提示 市场表现不及预期、风险定价可能不充分、产业发展不及预期。 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 张陈 执业证书编号：S0860526010004 zhangchen2@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 春节假期，全球重点仍是地缘政治：策略 周度思考 20260224 2026-02-24 中盘蓝筹系列：避险情绪助推消费，化工 农业仍是重点：策略周度思考 20260208 2026-02-08 中盘蓝筹系列：大宗涨价的两条主线：策 略周度思考 20260201 2026-02-01 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 投资策略 | 定期报告 —— 中东冲突加剧，大宗涨价升温 目 录 周度思考：中东冲突加剧，大宗涨价升温.......................................................4 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - Global risk appetite has increased, with major assets like gold and oil rising in tandem, while equity assets are recovering[10] - A-shares have shown a 2.85% increase year-to-date, with the CSI 300 index up 0.66%[11] - The CSI 500 index has risen by 11.17% year-to-date, indicating strong performance among mid-cap stocks[11] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In January 2026, social financing increased by CNY 165.4 billion year-on-year, a significant improvement from a decrease of CNY 646.2 billion in December 2025[21] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%, with non-farm payrolls adding 130,000 jobs, exceeding expectations[16] - High-frequency data during the Spring Festival showed a 12.3% increase in cross-regional travel compared to the previous year, reaching a historical high of 35.3 million trips[20] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The probability of conflict between the U.S. and Iran has risen, with market expectations indicating a higher likelihood of escalation before March 2026[15] - U.S. tariff issues are causing uncertainty, with a recent Supreme Court ruling potentially halting many tariffs imposed by the previous administration[16] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Domestic demand remains stable post-Spring Festival, benefiting Chinese assets as risk evaluations improve[23] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been postponed, leading to a likely period of consolidation for the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and precious metals until employment data clarifies trends[23]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the risk assessment for the US and Japan is rising, while the domestic risk assessment in China is steadily declining, making low-risk equity assets like A-shares relatively superior [7][20][30] - Gold and strategic metals within commodities continue to hold investment value, benefiting from the global low-risk characteristics of equity assets [7][20][30] - The report highlights that the trend for risk assets remains strong, with A-shares, commodities, and gold showing robust performance, while US stocks are experiencing overall fluctuations [21][30] Group 2 - In the expectation dimension, domestic supply remains strong while demand is weak, indicating a need for more support for domestic consumption [14][15] - The uncertainty surrounding US policies is increasing, leading to a rise in the risk assessment of dollar-denominated assets [16] - The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy interest rate, but the fiscal outlook is becoming increasingly uncertain due to the dissolution of the House of Representatives [17]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report maintains a bullish outlook on A-shares, commodities, and gold, with domestic risk assessments steadily declining, favoring A-shares[7] - A-shares and commodities continue to show strong trends, while the mid-term uncertainty for commodities has increased, whereas A-shares and gold remain stable[42] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In December 2025, the social financing data showed a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan, indicating a tightening in financing demand[15] - The U.S. inflation data remains relatively mild, with the December 2025 CPI growth at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.6%, leading to a reduced expectation for interest rate cuts[16] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory measures have been implemented to manage market expectations, including increasing the margin ratio for financing from 80% to 100% to curb excessive speculation[20] - The regulatory approach aims to stabilize the market and prevent extreme fluctuations, indicating an improvement in the governance of the capital market[20] Group 4: Asset Performance - A-shares showed a weekly decline of 0.45% for the Shanghai Composite Index, while the CSI 500 index increased by 2.18%[11] - Gold prices increased by 2.23% over the week, maintaining a strong trend alongside commodities[11]

Group 1 - The report maintains a bullish outlook on A-shares, commodities, and gold, indicating that the expected changes continue to favor risk assets as domestic fundamental concerns ease and risk evaluations decline [7][51] - A-share style and industry allocation focus on mid-cap blue chips, with small and micro-cap stocks potentially having a catch-up opportunity, highlighting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, defense, chemicals, and electronics [7][51] - The report emphasizes the continued strength of trends in A-shares, gold, and commodities, while noting a slight increase in medium-term uncertainty for commodities [31][51] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic events impacting asset prices include a rise in CPI and a narrowing decline in PPI, alleviating concerns about the domestic economic downturn [19][21] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates weak demand, with a drop in new jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, suggesting that the labor market remains fragile [23][26] - Adjustments to export tax rebate policies for various products, including solar energy and battery products, are expected to enhance China's competitive advantage in industries with high energy consumption and pollution [27] Group 3 - The report highlights the significant outperformance of CTA strategies, with the highest return reaching 7.45%, while other strategy categories lagged behind [14] - A-share market sentiment has shown a short-term increase, while medium-term risks remain stable, with fluctuations in various asset classes indicating changes in trading sentiment [36][40] - The report notes that the trends in non-ferrous metals and defense industries are strong, with both short-term sentiment and medium-term uncertainty rising [34][44]

Group 1 - The index is expected to consolidate and gather strength before reaching new highs, with the recent tariff delay being fully priced in by the market, leading to a rise in major indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3555.22 points [3][14] - The market's optimistic sentiment is currently prevailing, but there is insufficient risk pricing for potential negative surprises regarding tariffs, which may hinder further declines in risk evaluation [3][14] - The market's recent rise is primarily driven by an increase in risk appetite, with the ChiNext Index, CSI 1000 Index, and All A Index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [4][15] Group 2 - Short-term themes are expected to rotate between policy expectations and industrial trends, with a focus on the "anti-involution" sector and real estate, which has seen a 6.1% increase this week due to anticipated policy developments [6][16] - The "anti-involution" sector, particularly in steel, pork, and certain segments of new energy, is highlighted as a potential area of focus due to high policy expectations following recent government meetings [6][16] - The trading of industrial trends is expected to continue, with short-term attention on sectors such as stablecoins, rare earths, nuclear fusion, military industry, deep-sea economy, artificial intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7][17]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The expectation of improved national governance effectiveness is driving an increase in risk appetite among investors[4] - Despite anticipated GDP growth pressure, the market has already priced in the "high-low" trend and inflation concerns, suggesting that macro policy efficiency and international comparisons are undervalued[4] - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to enhance the sense of gain for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and workers, potentially leading to a decrease in risk assessments[5] Group 2: Policy Implications - Recent policies, such as the "Guarantee for Payment to SMEs" regulation, aim to shorten payment terms, which may improve profitability quality for SMEs[6] - The focus of policies is shifting towards more elastic service consumption, reflecting a change in consumer demand from essential goods to optional services as income rises[7] - Local governments are expanding service consumption capabilities, indicating a policy shift towards enhancing consumer protection and infrastructure development[7] Group 3: Global Context - Global geopolitical instability, including fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, is leading investors to recognize the stability of China's national governance[9] - The certainty of China's governance is becoming a driving force for foreign investment, as it contrasts with the uncertainties in Western economies[9] - The market has already factored in pressures on GDP growth and inflation, but the certainty of governance and efforts to improve economic structure remain undervalued, presenting a fundamental reason to invest in China[10]