1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of live pigs persists, and the rebound of futures prices is under pressure. Although there may be a phased rebound in prices in the short - term, the supply will increase significantly after September, and prices will continue to be under pressure in the medium - to - long - term [4][52]. - The abundant supply of eggs suppresses the market, and the rebound of the futures price is under pressure. In the short - term, sufficient supply will limit the increase in egg prices, and in the long - term, the high - supply situation may be difficult to reverse [5][83]. - The listing of new corn supplements the supply, and the futures price is running weakly. In the short - term, the supply is relatively sufficient, and in the long - term, supply pressure during the listing period and the decline in cost support may lead to a downward shift in the price fluctuation center [6][110]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Live Pigs 3.1.1 Week - to - Week Market Review - As of August 15, the national spot price was 13.7 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.73 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week; the live pig 2511 contract closed at 13,945 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 11 - contract was - 215 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan/ton from last week [4][12]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The average weekly fat - to - standard price difference was 0.51 yuan, up 0.02 yuan from last week; the national average weekly live pig slaughter weight was 127.2 kg, up 0.02 kg from last week; the secondary fattening sales volume from August 1 - 10, 2025, accounted for 0.82%, down 0.12% from the previous period; as of August 15, the live pig warehouse receipts were 430 lots, up 50 lots from last week [4]. - Demand - related data: The average daily weekly slaughter start - up rate was up 0.98% to 28.09%; the average daily weekly slaughter volume was 116,232 heads, up 4,077 heads from last week; the fresh meat sales rate was down 0.64% to 87.02%; the slaughter processing profit was - 19.5 yuan/head, up 0.5 yuan/head from last week; the frozen product storage rate was 17.2%, up 0.09% from last week [4]. - Cost - related data: The national average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets was 383.33 yuan/head, down 30.48 yuan/head from last week; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 11.83 yuan/head, down 19.59 yuan/head from last week; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 204.05 yuan/head, down 17.14 yuan/head from last week; the price of 50 - kg binary breeding sows was 1,611 yuan/head, down 2 yuan/head from last week; the cost of self - breeding and self - raising 5 - month - old fattening pigs for sows of 5,000 - 10,000 heads was 12.82 yuan/kg, the same as last week; as of the week of August 8, the national pig - to - grain ratio was 6.02:1 [4]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows increased steadily from May to November 2024. Although the production capacity began to decline in December 2024, the decline was limited. The production capacity increased again from May to June 2025, and the overall sow production capacity was abundant. Combined with the improvement of production performance, the live pig slaughter pressure will remain high until April next year [4][17]. - The production performance has improved. In July, the ratio of binary to ternary breeding sows was 94%:6%, the same as last month; the breeding farrowing rate was 79.67%, up 0.74% from last month; the average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.29, up 0.01 from last month. The sow production performance was at the highest level in the past four years [17]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, there may be a phased price rebound, but the supply will increase significantly after September, and the rebound height is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will increase until April next year, and prices will continue to be under pressure [4]. 3.1.5 Strategy Recommendations - The futures price is still at a premium compared to the low - price area in the southwest. Contracts 11 and 01 face large supply pressure and their rebounds are under pressure. Contract 03 is under pressure as it corresponds to next year's off - season, while contract 05 is relatively strong due to the expectation of policy - driven production capacity reduction. For contracts 11 and 01, gradually stop losses on previous short positions at low levels, wait for the spot price to drive a rebound, and then add short positions at the pressure levels. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4]. 3.2 Eggs 3.2.1 Week - to - Week Market Review - As of August 15, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.1 yuan/jin, up 0.19 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from last Friday; the egg 2510 contract closed at 3,391 yuan/500 kg, down 75 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 562 yuan/500 kg, up 5 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][62]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The national weekly utilization rate of breeding eggs for laying hens was 68.00%, the same as last week; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was 3.60 yuan/chick, down 0.25 yuan/chick from last week; the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 5.48 yuan/jin, down 0.20 yuan/jin from last week; the culled hen slaughter volume was 14.42 million, up 710,000 from last week; the culled hen age was 506 days, the same as last week [63]. - Demand - related data: The egg sales volume in the sample sales areas was 7,605 tons, up 76 tons from last week; the average daily number of trucks arriving at the Beijing market was 12, down 0.71 from last week; the average daily number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong market was 83, up 8 from last week [63]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The number of newly - opened laying hens in August corresponds to the increased chick replenishment in April 2025. After the Beginning of Autumn, the egg - laying rate will gradually recover. Although some farms have culled old hens, the supply is still abundant due to the supplement of cold - stored eggs [5]. - In the long - term, the high chick - replenishment volume from May to July 2025 means a large number of newly - opened laying hens from September to November 2025. The high - supply situation may be difficult to reverse, but the chick - replenishment enthusiasm has declined, and the supply growth may slow down [5]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, sufficient supply will limit the increase in egg prices. If the Mid - Autumn Festival market performance is not as expected, the culling may increase, alleviating the long - term supply pressure. Continuously monitor the culling situation [5]. 3.2.5 Strategy Recommendations - The spot price may have a small - scale rebound. The culling of hens is the key variable. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Currently, the main contract is 10, with a large premium. Wait for a rebound to go short. If the culling process accelerates, there are opportunities to go long on contracts 12 and 01 [5]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Week - to - Week Market Review - As of August 15, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, the same as last Friday; the corn 2511 contract closed at 2,190 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 110 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][91]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The corn arrival volume at the four northern ports was 11.6 (weekly), down 13.1 from last week; the average number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 234, down 46 from last week [93]. - Demand - related data: The deep - processing enterprise start - up rate was 55.9%, up 2.07% from last week; the deep - processing enterprise corn consumption was 101.95 tons, down 1.6 tons from last week; the northern port shipping volume was 24.7 tons, up 0.7 tons from last week [93]. - Inventory - related data: The northern port corn inventory was 247 tons, down 22 tons from last week; the southern port corn inventory was 75.1 tons, down 14.5 tons from last week; the sample feed enterprise corn inventory days were 29.61 days, down 0.83 days from last week [93]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - In the next ten days, there will be more rainfall in many areas, which is beneficial for soil moisture but may also cause waterlogging and other disasters. High - temperature weather in some areas may affect crop growth [97]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - Currently, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. In the long - term, the 25/26 corn planting is stable, the climate is suitable, and the cost support has shifted downwards. The price fluctuation center may shift downwards, but the weather in the production areas needs to be continuously monitored [6]. 3.3.5 Strategy Recommendations - The main contract has shifted to 11, which is linked to the new crop. With suitable weather and cost reduction, the futures price is weak due to the expected selling pressure during the listing period. Those without positions can wait for a rebound to go short or hold the 11 - 1 reverse spread [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The pig market faces significant supply pressure, with high piglet production and large - scale enterprise plans to increase supply. In the short - term, the market is in a state of supply exceeding demand, and prices are expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound, but the increase is limited. In the long - term, prices will be under pressure until April next year [4][54]. - The egg market has sufficient supply, which suppresses price increases. Although there is an expected increase in demand in the short - term, the abundant supply will limit price increases. In the long - term, the high supply situation may be difficult to reverse, but if the Mid - Autumn Festival performance is poor, it may increase elimination and relieve future supply pressure [6][87]. - The corn market is in a state of intensified supply - demand game, with short - term supply and demand relatively balanced and prices having limited upward and downward space. In the long - term, new - season corn listing and cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the price center, but attention should be paid to weather conditions in production areas [7][108]. Summary by Variety Pig 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the national spot price was 13.65 yuan/kg, down 0.61 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.63 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan/kg; the 2511 contract closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton; the 11 - contract basis was - 550 yuan/ton, down 910 yuan/ton [4][54]. 2. Supply - The inventory of breeding sows increased from May to November 2024, decreased slightly from December 2024, and increased again from May to June 2025, remaining at the upper limit of the equilibrium range. With improved production performance, the pressure of pig slaughter before April next year is still high. Supply will increase in the third and fourth quarters, with a limited increase in August and a significant increase after September [4][54]. 3. Demand - Weekly slaughter rates and volumes increased slightly, but seasonal consumption was weak. Fresh - sales rates decreased slightly, and frozen - product inventory increased slightly. Overall consumption was poor, but there was potential consumption elasticity due to low frozen - product inventory [4][54]. 4. Cost - Weekly piglet and binary breeding sow prices decreased, self - breeding and self - raising profits declined, and purchased - piglet profits had a larger loss. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increased slightly. The national pig - grain ratio was 6.05:1 as of August 1, approaching the 6:1 warning level [4][54]. 5. Strategy - The 09 contract is restricted by weak reality and delivery pressure, with a resistance level of 14,000 - 14,200. Contracts 11 and 01 are stronger but still face supply pressure, with resistance levels of 14,200 - 14,500 and 14,500 - 14,700 respectively. Consider shorting on rebounds and focus on the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4][54]. Egg 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, down 0.24 yuan/jin; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.94 yuan/jin, down 0.25 yuan/jin. The 2509 contract closed at 3,391 yuan/500 kg, down 93 yuan/500 kg, and the basis was - 771 yuan/500 kg, down 287 yuan/500 kg [6][87]. 2. Supply - Newly - laid hens in August correspond to high - volume replenishment in April 2025. Although some old hens were culled due to price drops, the supply is still abundant due to cold - storage eggs. In the long - term, high replenishment from May to July 2025 means high supply from September to November 2025 [6][87]. 3. Demand - Current low prices stimulate downstream procurement. With Mid - Autumn Festival and school - opening preparations in mid - to - late August, demand is expected to increase seasonally [6][87]. 4. Strategy - The 09 contract has limited upside potential due to a low - level basis. Contracts 10 and 11 in the fourth quarter should be shorted on rebounds. If the elimination process accelerates, there may be long opportunities for contracts 12 and 01 [6][87]. Corn 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 2,255 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the basis was 45 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [7][108]. 2. Supply - Low prices increased traders' willingness to sell, and reserve rotations added to the market supply. Northeast grain supplemented the North China market, and a small amount of spring corn was listed in the South. Corn imports decreased in June, and overall market supply was sufficient [7][108]. 3. Demand - Increased livestock and poultry inventories drove feed demand, but the high price difference between corn and wheat led to more wheat purchases, squeezing corn demand. Deep - processing enterprises were in the red, with low operating rates and limited incremental demand [7][108]. 4. Strategy - The 09 contract will oscillate in the range of 2,250 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Consider the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [7][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Pig**: Supply pressure is gradually being released, and futures prices are oscillating at a low level. In the short - term, there is a game between supply and demand, and pig prices are supported at a low level with intensified oscillations. In the medium - to - long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices still face a risk of decline [4][50]. - **Egg**: Hen culling has accelerated, and the support for the futures market has strengthened. In the short - term, the Dragon Boat Festival may boost egg prices, but high supply and weather conditions will put pressure on prices. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [5][74]. - **Corn**: The end of grass - roots grain sales has strengthened the support for the futures market. In the short - term, the spot price has support. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship is tightening, which drives prices up, but the upside space is limited due to substitutes [6][99]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig 3.1.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the national spot price was 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.41 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 14.59 yuan/kg, down 0.32 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of pig 2509 was 13,515 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton from last week; the 09 - contract basis was 1,075 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton from last week [4][50]. 3.1.2. Supply End - From May to November 2024, the inventory of breeding sows increased steadily, and performance improved. In the case of stable epidemics, the supply from May to September 2025 showed an increasing trend. Although the breeding profit declined and the production capacity was reduced, the overall reduction was limited. In May 2025, the planned slaughter volume of key provincial enterprises and large - scale enterprises increased month - on - month [4][50]. 3.1.3. Demand End - It is currently the off - season for consumption. With the hot weather, terminal consumption is mediocre, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate remains low. Although there is inventory demand before the Dragon Boat Festival, the increase in slaughter volume is limited due to the losses of slaughtering enterprises [4][50]. 3.1.4. Cost End - The weekly piglet price decreased slightly, the price of binary breeding sows was stable, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets decreased slightly [4][50]. 3.1.5. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, there is a game between supply and demand, and pig prices are supported at a low level with intensified oscillations. In the medium - to - long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices still face a risk of decline [4][50]. 3.1.6. Strategy Suggestion - Do not chase short positions. Wait for a rebound and then go short at high levels. For the 07 contract, the pressure level is 13,700 - 13,800, and the support level is lowered to 13,000 - 13,100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14,000 - 14,200, and the support level is 13,300 - 13,400. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract after a rebound [4][50]. Egg 3.2.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.28 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, down 0.5 yuan/jin from last Friday. The main egg futures contract 2507 closed at 2,966 yuan/500 kg, down 15 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 346 yuan/500 kg, 205 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday [5][74]. 3.2.2. Supply End - The newly - opened laying hens in May corresponded to the chicks supplemented in January 2025, with a large number of new layers. Some breeding enterprises chose to cull hens, and the supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the market supply was still relatively sufficient. In the long - term, the high number of chicks supplemented from February to April 2025 will lead to more newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025 [5][74]. 3.2.3. Demand End - As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, low egg prices may stimulate terminal demand, but high temperatures and humidity in the south are not conducive to egg storage, and the demand for driving up egg prices is relatively limited [5][74]. 3.2.4. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the Dragon Boat Festival may boost egg prices, but high supply and weather conditions will put pressure on prices. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [5][74]. 3.2.5. Strategy Suggestion - Be cautious about short - chasing the 07 contract after June. For the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the 3,750 - 3,800 pressure level for the 08 contract. Look for long opportunities for the 10 contract at low levels [5][74]. Corn 3.3.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main corn futures contract 2507 closed at 2,327 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton weaker than last Friday [6][99]. 3.3.2. Supply End - As the price rises to a high level, traders' willingness to sell increases, and the market supply increases. However, grass - roots grain sales are basically over, and traders are firm in their asking prices. The current inventory in the north and south ports is in the process of depletion, which supports the spot price. In April, corn imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [6][99]. 3.3.3. Demand End - The increase in livestock and poultry inventory drives up feed demand, but the narrowing price difference between corn and wheat has led to an increase in the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing wheat, squeezing the feed demand for corn. Deep - processing enterprises are in a loss state, with a decline in the operating rate and limited incremental demand [6][99]. 3.3.4. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the reduction of grass - roots grain sources provides support for prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship is tightening, which drives prices up, but the upside space is limited due to substitutes [6][99]. 3.3.5. Strategy Suggestion - Take a moderately bullish view in the general direction. The 07 contract oscillates at a high level (2,300 - 2,360), and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage [6][99].