以下文章来源于大地期货研究院 ，作者马爽 大地期货研究院 . 大地期货研究院官方订阅号 二 次育肥： 中性偏空 仍以出为主，低价局部有零星进场，整体还是偏谨 慎。 收抛储 ： 中性 本周 10 月 10 日挂牌轮换收储中央储备冻猪肉 1.5 万吨。 文 | 马爽 来源 | 大地期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点小结 核心观点： 震荡偏空 供强需弱格局不变。双节期间猪价全面下跌进一步反 映了当下供应增量明显的弱现实，近端供应压力持续，而现阶段需求增量难 以匹配供给增量，基本面暂无明显利好驱动，猪价探底或未结束。近月随现 货偏弱看待，临近交割月盘面尚处升水状态，操作上维持逢高偏空的思路， 关注出栏节奏和情绪表现。 能繁产能 ： 近 空远多 行业进入亏损状态，当下利润和政策角度来看去产具 有一定理论上的驱动，关注逐月能繁及淘母数量表现。 商品猪供给： 中性 偏空 企业端出栏有被动后移表现，出栏计划增量继续体 现，体重尚且高于同期，近端出栏压力延续。 屠宰开工： 中性 节后需求惯性回落，温和复苏状态下短期需求增量有限。 成本及利润：中性偏多 近月养殖成本变化不大，利润主要受猪价主导。当下 各环节 ...

1 每日提示 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-10-09 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1.中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征关税，提振市场信心，国内生猪消 费市场受淡季即将来临影响，随着中秋国庆过去，大猪出栏有所减少，生猪 供需双减，现货价格短期偏弱中期维持区间震荡格局。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，国内进入中秋国庆双节后供需淡季，国内大型养殖场出栏开始减少支撑生猪短 期价格，预计本周供给猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，长假结束后至居民整 体消费意愿减弱，压制短期鲜猪肉消费。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期弱势中期 或探底回升维持震荡格局。关注月中集团 ...

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 农产品早报 2025-10-09 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 【行情资讯】 国庆假日期间 CBOT 大豆较节前收盘上涨约 2%，估值较低及特朗普提出将与中国讨论大豆贸易吸引逢低 买盘。特朗普本周三在社交媒体上表示，大豆问题将成为他四周后与中国会晤时讨论的主要议题。国内 豆粕现货小幅下跌 10-20 元/吨，局部上涨，华东报 2930-2950 元/吨左右涨 20 元。 杨泽元 咨询机构 AgRural 周一表示，截至 10 月 2 日，2025/26 年度巴西大豆播种进度达到全国总播种面积的 9%， 高于一周前的 3.2%，也高于去年同期的 4%。总体来看，进口大豆成本受到美豆低估值、中美贸易关系 及巴西种 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week as large domestic farms are more willing to sell pigs before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, while consumer demand for fresh pork is also boosted by the approaching holidays and the start of the school term. The market is likely to see both increased supply and demand, with short - term weak pig prices and a mid - term trend of bottoming out and then fluctuating. The price of LH2511 is expected to fluctuate between 12,600 and 13,000 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamental situation shows that supply and demand are both increasing. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The inventory shows an increase in pig and sow stocks. The price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing. The expected price of LH2511 will fluctuate between 12,600 and 13,000 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. As the holidays approach, the supply and demand of pigs are both increasing, with short - term weak spot prices and mid - term price fluctuations. The short - term improvement in pork demand is affected by increased supply, and the price may bottom out after the National Day. The loss of pig - farming profits has expanded, and the short - term price of pigs is supported by the increase in supply and demand [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the peak consumption season before the long holiday and limited room for further decline in the spot price. Bearish factors are the pessimistic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the year - on - year increase in pig inventory. The current main logic is the focus on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report provides data on pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from September 16th to 24th, including prices of different contracts and spot prices in various regions [14]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the document

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of the domestic pig market are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound in the short term, maintaining a volatile pattern. The market should focus on the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms at the end of the month and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 12,800 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals show that in September, the domestic market is gradually entering the peak season of supply and demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. The enthusiasm for domestic slaughter has increased, and the pig price is expected to maintain short - term fluctuations. It is expected that the supply of pigs and meat will increase this week. On the demand side, the domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, and the overall consumption willingness of residents has increased with the approaching of the school season and long holidays, which boosts the short - term fresh pork consumption and market confidence. The base price indicates that the national average spot price is 12,560 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is 105 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory shows that as of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; as of the end of June, the breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The market trend shows that the price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. The main positions are net long, with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the supply and demand of live pigs will pick up recently, and the pig price will maintain a weak and volatile pattern this week, with the LH2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 12,400 - 12,800 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the United States and Canada have boosted market confidence. Affected by the off - season, with the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the slaughter of large pigs has increased, resulting in an increase in both supply and demand of live pigs. The spot price has returned to short - term fluctuations, and the futures price has also shown a range - bound pattern. Recently, the high - temperature weather has led to a short - term decline in pork demand. The spot price of live pigs has fluctuated weakly due to the increase in supply, but the decline may be limited due to the gradual recovery of demand. The domestic pig farming profit has remained at a low level, and the short - term profit has deteriorated. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is currently good, and the increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot. The spot price of live pigs may fluctuate strongly before the National Day, and the futures price will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include that the domestic pig consumption has entered the peak season before the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price may be limited. Bearish factors include the pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment affected by the Sino - US tariff war and the year - on - year increase in domestic live pig inventory. The current main logic is that the market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from September 15 to September 23, including prices of the main 2511 contract, far - month 2601 contract, 2411 contract, and spot prices in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Hunan, and Guangdong. It also shows various charts related to the fundamentals of live pigs, including the basis and spread trends of live pig futures, the average prices of different specifications of live pigs in the spot market, and the supply - side indicators such as pig prices, piglet indicators, inventory, pork imports, fattening costs, feed profit expectations, slaughter, profit, and substitution. On the demand side, it includes consumption trends, pig - grain ratio, and the situation of purchase and release of reserves [14]. 5. Position Data - Not explicitly summarized in the given content.

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of live pigs in the spot market are loose, and the price remains weak. Although demand has increased, the continuous increase is not obvious, and the supply pressure of slaughter is relatively greater. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts are mainly dragged down by the weak spot market [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 23rd, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell back, fluctuating downward, and closed in the negative at the end of the session. The highest was 12,840 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,655 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.48% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,354 lots to 249,995 lots [9]. - **Spot Market**: On the 23rd, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 12.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The utilization rate of the second - fattening pens remains high, the slaughter pressure is large, the slaughter progress at the end of the month accelerates, and the slaughter weight decreases slightly. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs before the Spring Festival may still maintain a slight growth trend [10]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the fattening cost is still low. Currently, the second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Although the weather has turned cooler, the continuous increase in demand is not obvious, the sales of white strips are slow, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On September 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 154,000 heads, an increase of 8,000 heads from the previous day, 48,000 heads week - on - week, and 129,000 heads month - on - month [10]. 2. Industry News - As of September 18th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 7.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 46 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 246.6 yuan/head, a decrease of 70.8 yuan/head week - on - week [11][13] 3. Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of September 18th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 358 yuan/head, a decrease of 36 yuan/head from the previous week [17]. - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: In the week of September 18th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.16 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.03 yuan/jin week - on - week [17]. - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 12.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.47 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 12.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous week [17]. - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: In the week of September 18th, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.77%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from the previous week and 2.22 percentage points year - on - year. The weekly operating rate of enterprises fluctuated in the range of 31.54 - 31.80 [17]. - **National Average Slaughter Weight of Live Pigs**: As of the week of September 18th, the national average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.45 kg, an increase of 0.13 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% [17].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-09-17 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，9月份国内逐渐进入中秋国庆双节前供需旺季，国内出栏积极性增多生猪价格 短期维持震荡，预计本周供给猪、肉双增。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，开学季和长假 将至居民整体消费意愿有所回升，提振短期鲜猪肉消费，提振市场信心。综合来看，预计本周市场 或供需双增、猪价短期探底回升维持震荡格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态 变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价12960元/吨，2511合约基差200元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3. 库存：截至6月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand situation of live pigs is loose, and the price remains weak. On the spot side, although terminal demand has increased with the start of schools and cooler weather, the supply pressure from hog sales is still relatively large. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak - demand season, and the supply - demand margin may improve, but they are mainly oscillating weakly due to the current large spot supply pressure [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Conditions**: On the 11th, the main 2511 live pig futures contract opened slightly higher and then oscillated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 13,370 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,285 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,574 lots to 197,717 lots. The national average price of foreign ternary pigs on the spot market was 13.33 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Analysis**: On the supply side, in September, the planned sales of sample breeding enterprises were 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high. On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly declined, and second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The terminal consumption of residents may increase, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the slaughter rate and volume have slightly increased. On September 11th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 148,000 heads, an increase of 400 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 heads [9]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - As of September 4th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising live pig was 98.7 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per live pig purchased as a piglet was - 112.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [10][12]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of September 4th was 425 yuan/head, a decrease of 19 yuan/head from the previous week [15]. - The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of September 4th was 0.19 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/jin. The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 13.42 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 13.69 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous week [15]. - The slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate in the week of September 5th was 31.27%, a week - on - week increase of 2 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.54 percentage points, with the weekly rate fluctuating between 30.18% and 31.75% [15]. - As of the week of September 4th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.23 kg, an increase of 0.4 kg or 0.31% from the previous week [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of the domestic pig market are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound, maintaining a volatile pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals show that in September, as the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approach, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week. The demand is boosted by the return of students to school and the approaching long - holiday, and the consumption of fresh pork is expected to increase. Overall, the market may see a situation of increasing supply and demand, with pig prices bottoming out and rebounding to maintain a volatile pattern. The market should pay attention to the monthly slaughter rhythm of group farms and the dynamic changes in the secondary fattening market [10]. - The basis: The national average spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is 255 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [10]. - Inventory: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - The market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [10]. - Main positions: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing [10]. - Expectation: The supply and demand of live pigs have recently begun to pick up. It is expected that the pig price will bottom out and rebound this week, maintaining a range - bound pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the United States and Canada have boosted market confidence. Affected by the off - season, as the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approach, the slaughter of large pigs has increased, resulting in an increase in both supply and demand of live pigs. The spot price has returned to a volatile pattern in the short term, and the futures price has also shown a range - bound pattern [12]. - The recent high - temperature weather has led to a short - term decline in pork demand. Affected by the increase in supply, the spot price of live pigs has been fluctuating weakly. However, due to the gradual recovery of demand, the downward space may be limited [12]. - The domestic pig farming profit has remained at a low level, and the short - term profit has deteriorated. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has been relatively high in the short term. The increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price of live pigs may fluctuate strongly before the National Day, and the futures price will generally return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed in the future [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic pig consumption has entered the peak season before the long - holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [13]. - Bearish factors: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic live pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from August 22 to September 1, including the prices of the main 2511 contract, far - month 2601 contract, and some regional spot prices [14]. - It also presents various charts related to the fundamentals of live pigs, such as the basis and spread trends of live pig futures, the average prices of different specifications of live pigs in the spot market, and indicators on the supply side (including pig prices, piglet indicators, inventory at different levels, pork imports, fattening costs, etc.), the slaughter side (including prices, profits, etc.), and the demand side (including consumption trends, etc.) [15][17][23]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of live pigs are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is predicted to bottom out and rebound, maintaining a range - bound pattern. The live pig LH2511 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,400 to 13,800 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals show that in August, the supply and demand peak season before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching. The supply of pigs and meat is expected to increase this week. The demand is affected by the pessimistic macro - environment and high - temperature weather, but the tariff increase on imported pork from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. The market is expected to have both supply and demand increase, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the secondary fattening market dynamics. The overall assessment is neutral. - The basis of the 2511 contract is - 20 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, also rated as neutral. - As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase, which is bearish. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, also bearish. - The net long position of the main contract is increasing, which is bullish. - It is expected that the supply and demand of live pigs will pick up recently, and the pig price will bottom out and rebound, maintaining a range - bound pattern this week [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's tariff increase on imported pork from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic live pig consumption market entered the off - season, with both supply and demand decreasing. The spot price oscillated weakly in the short term, and the futures market followed the same pattern. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork decreased in the short term. Affected by the decrease in both supply and demand, the spot price of live pigs oscillated weakly, but the decline may be limited due to the reduction in slaughter. - The profit of domestic pig farming remains at a low level, but there is still a short - term profit. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is relatively high in the short term. The decrease in both supply and demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot markets. - The spot price of live pigs may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures market will generally maintain a weakly oscillatory pattern. When the market stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and the recovery of demand [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited room for further decline in domestic live pig spot prices. - Bearish factors are the pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of the live pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day. The current main logic is that the market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from August 20th to 28th, including prices of near - month 2509, main 2511, and other contracts, as well as the spot prices of outer - ternary live pigs in different regions [14]. - There are also various charts showing the trends of live pig futures basis and spreads, spot prices of different specifications of pigs, and supply - side indicators such as the prices of binary sows, 7kg piglets, and culled sows, piglet feed - to - meat ratio and survival rate, inventory at different levels (rural agriculture department, scale farms), pork imports, fattening costs, feed profit expectations, slaughter volume, slaughter profit, and alternative meat price differences [15][17][23]. - On the demand side, there are charts showing the trends of slaughter - end prices, slaughter profit, demand slaughter volume, consumption trends, pig - to - grain ratio, and the situation of state reserve purchases and releases [50][54][60]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position data is summarized in the given content.