国信期货生猪月报 国信期货研究 Page 1 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 供需宽松 猪价承压 生猪 2025 年 8 月 25 日 主要结论 综合来看，从仔猪出生数量来看，后期理论出栏量继续增加的格局仍没有改 变，尤其是按照仔猪出生数据来看，9 月开始出栏环比增速提高，供应增量可能 超过消费的季节性表现。从饲料产销数量的印证来看，6、7 月育肥料销量环比 增速较好，也说明存栏逐步增加。从出栏节奏来看，大型集团响应国家有关部门 的政策引导，加快了降低出栏均重的节奏，使得均重水平有所下降。进入 9 月之 后，预计行业将进入季节性增重阶段，但鉴于生猪出栏量的高位，预计对供应阶 段性影响的程度有限。从需求端来看，9 月之后天气转凉，终端消费也会有季节 性回升，但整体消费对价格的影响还取决于未来供应的匹配程度，基于未来出栏 的预估，预计生猪供需偏宽松。操作上，震荡偏空思路。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-08-22 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，8月份国内逐渐迎来中秋国庆双节前供需旺季，国内出栏积极性增多生猪价格 短期探底回升后维持震荡，预计本周供给猪、肉双增。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期偏悲观，高温 天气下居民整体消费意愿热情不强，压制短期鲜猪肉消费，前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征 关税，提振市场信心。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双增、猪价短期维持震荡格局。关注月底集 团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价13700元/吨，2511合约基差-65元/吨，现货贴水 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 2.1 Pig Market - Futures: On the 18th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, closing with a negative line. The highest was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,750 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,820 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 7,500 lots to 185,851 lots [8]. - Spot: On the 18th, the national average price of ternary pigs was 13.64 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. 2.2 Pig Market Analysis - Demand side: The utilization rate of pigsties is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is weak, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and slaughterhouse orders are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses have increased slightly. On August 18, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 140,400 heads, down 800 heads from the previous day and up 1,400 heads from a week ago [9]. - Supply side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% month - on - month increase compared with the actual slaughter volume in July. The slaughter volume is expected to increase significantly. The slaughter enthusiasm of the breeding side is high, the slaughter progress is fast, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties remains high, and there are still secondary fattening pigs to be released. The slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuates within a narrow range [9]. 2.3 Market Outlook - Spot: In August, the slaughter of the breeding side increases, the current slaughter enthusiasm is okay, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply and demand remain relatively loose, and the spot price of live pigs may continue to be under pressure [9]. - Futures: Currently, the near - month 2509 contract of futures mainly fluctuates weakly following the spot. In the medium - to - long - term far - month view, the pig supply will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak demand contracts, and the demand increase is relatively large. Currently, they are dragged down by the spot and are weakly correcting, but the initiatives for high - quality development against involution, strengthened environmental protection, and the peak demand season are favorable for the medium - to - long - term pig price performance, and the downside space may be relatively limited [9]. 3. Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 4. Data Overview - Profit per head: As of August 15, the profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 101 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/head; the profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 52 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 yuan/head [14]. - Piglet price: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of August 15 was 484 yuan/head, a decrease of 33 yuan/head from the previous week [14]. - Slaughter volume: In the week of August 15, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 1.6335 million heads, a week - on - week increase of 30,100 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.88%. The average daily slaughter volume of daily slaughter samples was 138,446 heads, an increase of 1,321 heads from the previous week, with an average daily increase of 0.96% [14]. - Planned slaughter volume: The planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% month - on - month increase compared with July [14]. - Average slaughter weight: As of the week of August 15, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 127.82 kg, an increase of 0.02 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%, and an increase of 1.65 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.31% [14].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-08-18 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，8月份国内逐渐迎来中秋国庆双节前供需旺季，国内出栏积极性增多生猪价格 短期探底回升后维持震荡，预计本周供给猪、肉双增。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期偏悲观，高温 天气下居民整体消费意愿热情不强，压制短期鲜猪肉消费，前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征 关税，提振市场信心。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双增、猪价短期维持震荡格局。关注月中集 团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价13700元/吨，2511合约基差-245元/吨，现货贴 ...

1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 周度分析与展望 研究所 现货旺季不旺 盘面继续挤升水 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年08月17日 研究所 研究所 过去一周生猪现货震荡弱反弹，受养殖端扛价及消费季节性支撑，期货终结前一周的反弹而下跌，其中LH11、LH01表现更弱 。基差略有走强，但西南地区现货对LH09仍贴水达400元/吨左右。基本面来看，根据不同机构统计的样本企业仔猪出生数据 ，后期理论出栏量仍将维持增加的格局，育肥猪料销量环比增速与23、24年同期接近，参考这两年的供应季节性走势，后期 供应压力仍较大。需求来看，二育继续低迷，消费后期季节性走强。综合来看，后期供需双增，但结合过去几年情况来看，旺 季对价格提振不明显，而目前期货升水现货，后期向现货靠拢可能性更多。操作上，震荡偏空思路。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND, 国信期货 4 2.生猪现货行情 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND,涌益咨询, ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The pig market faces significant supply pressure, with high piglet production and large - scale enterprise plans to increase supply. In the short - term, the market is in a state of supply exceeding demand, and prices are expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound, but the increase is limited. In the long - term, prices will be under pressure until April next year [4][54]. - The egg market has sufficient supply, which suppresses price increases. Although there is an expected increase in demand in the short - term, the abundant supply will limit price increases. In the long - term, the high supply situation may be difficult to reverse, but if the Mid - Autumn Festival performance is poor, it may increase elimination and relieve future supply pressure [6][87]. - The corn market is in a state of intensified supply - demand game, with short - term supply and demand relatively balanced and prices having limited upward and downward space. In the long - term, new - season corn listing and cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the price center, but attention should be paid to weather conditions in production areas [7][108]. Summary by Variety Pig 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the national spot price was 13.65 yuan/kg, down 0.61 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.63 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan/kg; the 2511 contract closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton; the 11 - contract basis was - 550 yuan/ton, down 910 yuan/ton [4][54]. 2. Supply - The inventory of breeding sows increased from May to November 2024, decreased slightly from December 2024, and increased again from May to June 2025, remaining at the upper limit of the equilibrium range. With improved production performance, the pressure of pig slaughter before April next year is still high. Supply will increase in the third and fourth quarters, with a limited increase in August and a significant increase after September [4][54]. 3. Demand - Weekly slaughter rates and volumes increased slightly, but seasonal consumption was weak. Fresh - sales rates decreased slightly, and frozen - product inventory increased slightly. Overall consumption was poor, but there was potential consumption elasticity due to low frozen - product inventory [4][54]. 4. Cost - Weekly piglet and binary breeding sow prices decreased, self - breeding and self - raising profits declined, and purchased - piglet profits had a larger loss. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increased slightly. The national pig - grain ratio was 6.05:1 as of August 1, approaching the 6:1 warning level [4][54]. 5. Strategy - The 09 contract is restricted by weak reality and delivery pressure, with a resistance level of 14,000 - 14,200. Contracts 11 and 01 are stronger but still face supply pressure, with resistance levels of 14,200 - 14,500 and 14,500 - 14,700 respectively. Consider shorting on rebounds and focus on the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4][54]. Egg 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, down 0.24 yuan/jin; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.94 yuan/jin, down 0.25 yuan/jin. The 2509 contract closed at 3,391 yuan/500 kg, down 93 yuan/500 kg, and the basis was - 771 yuan/500 kg, down 287 yuan/500 kg [6][87]. 2. Supply - Newly - laid hens in August correspond to high - volume replenishment in April 2025. Although some old hens were culled due to price drops, the supply is still abundant due to cold - storage eggs. In the long - term, high replenishment from May to July 2025 means high supply from September to November 2025 [6][87]. 3. Demand - Current low prices stimulate downstream procurement. With Mid - Autumn Festival and school - opening preparations in mid - to - late August, demand is expected to increase seasonally [6][87]. 4. Strategy - The 09 contract has limited upside potential due to a low - level basis. Contracts 10 and 11 in the fourth quarter should be shorted on rebounds. If the elimination process accelerates, there may be long opportunities for contracts 12 and 01 [6][87]. Corn 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 2,255 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the basis was 45 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [7][108]. 2. Supply - Low prices increased traders' willingness to sell, and reserve rotations added to the market supply. Northeast grain supplemented the North China market, and a small amount of spring corn was listed in the South. Corn imports decreased in June, and overall market supply was sufficient [7][108]. 3. Demand - Increased livestock and poultry inventories drove feed demand, but the high price difference between corn and wheat led to more wheat purchases, squeezing corn demand. Deep - processing enterprises were in the red, with low operating rates and limited incremental demand [7][108]. 4. Strategy - The 09 contract will oscillate in the range of 2,250 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Consider the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [7][108].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean supply is expected to be loose due to the promising harvest in the US and the expected expansion of planting area in Brazil, which may limit the rebound space of US soybean futures prices. The domestic DCE soybean meal M09 remains strong, with the focus shifting to the M01 contract. Although the spot price of soybean meal has risen, the high inventory of oil mills and the low basis have led to a dull market sentiment. The market's concern about supply shortages may be over - estimated, and there is no fundamental support for a significant price increase [16][18]. - For live pigs, the supply may first decrease and then increase in the short term. The demand has slightly recovered, but the high temperature still restricts the purchase of pork. The short - term price is mainly determined by the slaughter rhythm and is expected to fluctuate slightly downward [18][19]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract closed down 0.03% at 3023 yuan/ton, while the coastal oil mills' quotes rose by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live pig main 2509 contract dropped 55 yuan/ton to 13885 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of live pigs was stable at 13.88 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.66% to 995 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - The weather in the US Midwest planting belt is favorable this week, with rain expected. The temperature will be lower than normal in the early part of the week and then rise. Although there has been high - temperature and extreme weather recently, the growth conditions of corn and soybeans are still good [3][4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - In the 31st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased by 1.55% week - on - week to 655.59 million tons, while the soybean meal inventory decreased by 0.14% to 104.16 million tons [5]. - On August 5, the import cost of US soybeans decreased by 2 yuan to 4455 yuan, while that of Brazilian soybeans increased by 4 yuan to 3848 yuan, and that of Argentine soybeans increased by 17 yuan to 3691 yuan [5]. - On August 4, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal decreased, with spot volume increasing and basis volume decreasing. The average trading price rose for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a two - week high [5]. - The predicted US soybean production in 2025 is 4.425 billion bushels, and corn production is 16.323 billion bushels, higher than the USDA's latest forecast [6]. - As of July 31, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 612,539 tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 47.83401 million tons [6]. - Celeres expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 177.2 million tons and export volume to be 110 million tons [6]. - As of August 4, 2025, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.91173 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,790 tons [7]. - In late July, the oversupply in the live pig market due to accelerated slaughter and limited demand growth led to a decline in pig prices. In the fifth week of July 2025, the national live pig ex - factory price dropped to a six - week low [7]. - As of August 3, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, the flowering rate was 85%, and the pod - setting rate was 58% [7]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.4% [8]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live pigs, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal [11][12][15][16]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the global supply is expected to be loose, which may limit the rebound of US soybean futures. The domestic DCE M09 remains strong, and the focus is on M01. The high inventory of oil mills, low basis, and flat market sentiment suggest that the current price increase may be due to expected supply shortages rather than fundamental factors [16][18]. - For live pigs, the supply may fluctuate, and the demand recovery is limited. The short - term price is determined by the slaughter rhythm and is expected to fluctuate slightly downward [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease in both quantity and meat after the holiday, and the demand is also affected by the macro - environment and high - temperature weather, resulting in a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand. The pig price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the LH2509 contract oscillating in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of pigs shows that supply and demand may both decrease this week, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. The basis is neutral, the inventory situation is bearish, the price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving down, the main position is net short with a decrease in shorts, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the pork market enters the off - season, with both supply and demand decreasing. The spot price is short - term oscillatory and weak, and the futures price also shows an oscillatory and weak pattern. The decline in the spot price may be limited due to the reduction in slaughter [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include a year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and limited room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices. Bearish factors are the pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the off - season for pig and pork consumption after May Day [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, and the number of short positions is decreasing [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week, and the market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand. The pig price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. - The spot price is at a discount to the futures, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward direction. The main positions are net short, and the shorts are increasing. The recent supply and demand of live pigs have both decreased, and it is expected that the pig price will rise and then fall this week, returning to the range - bound pattern. The LH2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,900 - 14,300 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The supply of live pigs may decrease this week after the holiday, and the demand is also weak due to the macro - environment and high - temperature weather. The market is expected to have a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market entered the off - season, with a decrease in the slaughter of large pigs. The supply and demand of live pigs have both decreased, and the spot price has been oscillating weakly in the short term, with the futures following the same pattern [12]. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork has weakened in the short term. Affected by the double - reduction in supply and demand, the spot price of live pigs has been oscillating weakly, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [12]. - The profit of domestic pig farming remains at a low level, but there is still a short - term profit. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is relatively high in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price of live pigs may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a short - term oscillatory and weak pattern. When the price stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and recovery in demand [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of the pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: As of July 30, the national average spot price of live pigs was 13,890 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract was - 185 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures [10][14]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of fertile sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - **Price Trend**: The price was below the 20 - day moving average with a downward direction [10]. 3.5 Position Data - The main positions were net short, and the shorts were increasing [10].