行业 生猪月报 日期 2026 年 03 月 02 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 供需偏宽松&二育支撑 低位震荡 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 月度报告 《供需仍偏宽松 震荡偏弱为 主》 2025-10-09 远强》 2025-11-03 2026-02-02 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃summary＃供给端：通过计 ...

生猪周报. 生猪特刊 2026/03/01 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：罗鑫海 Z0021565 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2026-02-25 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，近期国内南方生猪二次育肥期结束，出栏短期减少支撑生猪价格，加上腊肉和 灌肠需求也结束，预计供给猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，但猪肉消费将迎 来春节后淡季，未来整体消费仍不乐观。综合来看，预计本周市场或供应减少需求预期减弱、猪价 短期或进入震荡偏弱格局。关注月底集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场释放后现货价格短期偏弱 运行下期货盘面底部动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价10920元/吨，2605合约基差-345元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3. 库存：截至12月31日，生猪存栏量42967万头，月度环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase as the secondary fattening period in southern China ends and the demand for cured meat and sausages also finishes. Although the domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, pork consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the overall future consumption is not optimistic. The market this week may see an increase in supply and a weakening demand expectation, and pig prices may enter a short - term volatile and weak pattern. The LH2605 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,400 - 11,800 [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamental situation of live pigs: The end of the secondary fattening period in southern China leads to a short - term increase in the number of pigs for sale, suppressing pig prices. The demand for cured meat and sausages has ended, and overall, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase. The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but pork consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, and future consumption is not optimistic. The market this week may have more supply and weaker demand expectations, and pig prices may enter a short - term volatile and weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms in the middle of the month and the dynamic changes in the spot price of the secondary fattening market, which may support the bottom of the futures market. The view is neutral. - The basis: The national average spot price is 11,710 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2605 contract is 145 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor. - Inventory: As of December 31, the live pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a monthly decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of December, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, a monthly decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. This is a bearish factor. - The disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. This is a bearish factor. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. This is a bearish factor. - Expectation: In the near term, both the supply and demand of live pigs are increasing. It is expected that pig prices will bottom out and rebound this week and generally maintain a range - bound pattern. The LH2605 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,400 - 11,800 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic live pig consumption market is affected by the peak demand season. With the end of secondary fattening in southern China, the number of live pigs for sale has increased, and the supply expectation has increased. The spot price is weak in the short term and will maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. - As the demand for cured meat at the end of the year gradually fades, the live pig spot market enters a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. The room for further price decline in the short term may be limited, and the price may bottom out and return to a range - bound pattern. - The loss of domestic live pig breeding profit has fluctuated slightly recently and remains slightly in the red in the short term. The enthusiasm for selling large pigs has increased in the short term, and the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot markets. - The live pig spot price is weak in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate and decline in the short term, bottom out and rebound in the medium term, or maintain a range - bound pattern. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The domestic demand for live pigs is still in the peak season at the end of the year; the domestic pig - grain ratio has fallen to the historical low range. - Bearish factors: The secondary fattening of live pigs at the end of the year in China has increased, and there is concentrated slaughter; the year - on - year decrease in the live pig inventory is lower than expected. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from February 2 to February 9, including the prices of near - month 2603 and main 2605 contracts, the number of warehouse receipts, and the spot prices of outer - ternary live pigs in different regions [14]. - It also shows the historical trends of live pig basis, contract spreads, the average prices of different specifications of live pigs, and the prices of related indicators on the supply side (such as the average price of binary sows, 7kg piglets, and culled sows; piglet feed - to - meat ratio and survival rate; monthly live pig inventory and its month - on - month trend; monthly inventory of breeding sows; live pig inventory of large - scale farms; monthly pork import trend; fattening cost; feed profit expectation; live pig slaughter volume and average weight; slaughter profit; self - breeding and self - raising and purchased piglet profit; price difference between pigs and other meats), on the slaughter side (such as the average price of白条, the price difference between live pigs and白条, the slaughter settlement price, the average price in 36 cities), on the demand side (such as the annual pork consumption volume), the pig - grain ratio, and the historical trends of live pig price increases and decreases, and the situation of live pig storage and release [15][17][23][50][60][63][67]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the document

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2026-02-09 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，近期国内南方生猪二次育肥期结束，出栏短期增多压制生猪价格，加上腊肉和 灌肠需求也结束，预计供给猪、肉双增。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，但未来整体消费 仍不乐观。综合来看，预计本周市场或供应增多需求预期减弱、猪价短期或进入震荡偏弱格局。关 注月中集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场释放现货价格偏强运行支撑期货盘面底部动态变化情况 。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价12050元/吨，2605合约基差425元/吨，现货升水期货。偏多。 3. 库存：截至12月31日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, both supply and demand are decreasing month - on - month, and the spot price will fluctuate. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly, the proportion of second - fattening pigs is still high compared to the same period last year, the current epidemic situation is sporadically occurring seasonally without continuous spread, and after the Spring Festival, it will enter the off - season of consumption. Therefore, the 03/05 contracts will mainly fluctuate weakly [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 22nd, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then fluctuated upwards, closing with a positive line at the end of the session. The highest price was 11,600 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,480 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,600 yuan/ton, up 1.09% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,201 lots to 339,236 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 22nd, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.87 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - **Supply Side**: Currently, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is relatively high compared to the same period last year, and there are still pigs to be slaughtered. In January, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. In the second half of the month, the enthusiasm of breeders to slaughter increased, and the overall slaughter weight has not changed much [7] - **Demand Side**: Second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. After the demand for curing and sausage - making ended, the demand has decreased significantly. Terminal consumer demand is average, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have decreased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly decreased. On January 22nd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 178,800 heads, an increase of 500 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 7,000 heads week - on - week, and a decrease of 19,000 heads month - on - month [7] 3.2 Industry News - From January 8th - 14th, the average sales price of 15kg piglets in the market was 425 yuan/head, an increase of 62 yuan/head from the previous week [10] - As of January 15th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 12.15 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg week - on - week. The cost of fattening with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125kg and then slaughtering was 12.24 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.49 yuan/kg week - on - week [10][11] 3.3 Data Overview - As of January 15th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was +25.8 yuan/head, an increase of 25.8 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of fattening with purchased piglets was - 100.5 yuan/head, an increase of 29.3 yuan/head week - on - week [20] - In the week ending January 15th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.85kg, an increase of 0.31kg from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.24%, a decrease of 1.33kg from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and an increase of 5.89kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 4.79% [20]

Report Title - "Consumption Peak Season Approaching, Pay Attention to Slaughter Rhythm —— Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs" [2] Report Date - January 16, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the past week, the live pig spot market fluctuated strongly, the price difference between fat and standard pigs widened, the slaughter volume was generally stable, the large - scale enterprises' slaughter volume recovered to normal from a low level, and the small and medium - sized farmers' slaughter volume decreased slightly, indicating strong demand and tight supply. The futures market rose due to the strong spot market and the discount of the futures price to the spot price, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts also strengthened [7]. - Based on the number of piglet births, the theoretical supply of standard pigs in the first quarter remains high. However, due to the strong price difference between fat and standard pigs, the industry's behavior of delaying slaughter and secondary fattening has led to a temporary shortage of slaughter volume. Currently, the average slaughter weight has been rising continuously, indicating that the inventory of live pigs is still increasing [7]. - From the demand side, starting from the second half of next week, the slaughter demand in the industry will enter the climbing period of the peak season before the Spring Festival. At that time, the supply of pigs from large - scale enterprises and large pigs from small farmers will also increase simultaneously. This will be an important node to verify the matching degree of real supply and demand, and the inventory reduction situation will also be an important guide for the spot price in the off - season after the Spring Festival [7]. - In the long term, the recent rapid increase in piglet prices reflects that the industry's expectations are tilting towards optimism. Attention should be paid to the impact of the rising piglet prices on the pace of capacity reduction [7]. - In the futures market, the current futures price is strong. Although the main LH03 contract corresponds to the off - season after the Spring Festival, the market still focuses on the strong spot market and the possibility of reduced supply pressure after the Spring Festival due to the accelerated digestion of large pigs before the Spring Festival. However, considering the valuation level and the subsequent supply - demand forecast, the current price may be close to the upper limit of the oscillation range. The far - end contracts are supported by capacity reduction, but the swing of expectations should be vigilant. In terms of operation, the near - end contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and for the far - end contracts, pay attention to the opportunity of low - level band - trading long under the idea of wide - range oscillation [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live pig spot market was strong last week, and the futures market was also boosted. In the first quarter, the theoretical supply of standard pigs is high, but the actual slaughter volume is temporarily tight. The demand will enter the peak - season climbing period soon, and the matching of supply and demand will be verified. The rising piglet prices affect the capacity - reduction pace. The near - end futures contracts are expected to be weak, and the far - end contracts can be considered for low - level long - trading [7]. 2 - 14. Other Sections - The report also includes various aspects such as pig futures prices, futures contract spreads, spot prices, price differences between fat and standard pigs, changes in breeding sows, piglets, inventory, slaughter, consumption, frozen meat market, cost and profit, central reserve operations, and multi - caliber comparisons, but specific content summaries are not provided in the given text [8][12][16]

Core Viewpoint - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in December 2025, driven by a faster slaughter pace and seasonal demand, with a notable rise in slaughter volume anticipated in January 2026 [1][3][6] Supply Analysis - In December 2025, the outflow plan of live pigs from 211 monitored large-scale breeding enterprises increased by 3.77% month-on-month, indicating a stable supply [3] - The slaughter volume for December showed a significant increase, with an average daily slaughter of 215,700 pigs, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 15.22% [1][3] - The market is experiencing a phenomenon of accelerated outflow as breeding groups aim to meet their outflow plans and capitalize on rising pig prices [3][5] Demand Analysis - The demand for heavier pigs has surged due to the seasonal peak for cured meats in southern regions, alongside increased orders from slaughter enterprises driven by the winter solstice and New Year preparations [3][5] - The average price of white strip pork in December 2025 decreased by 26.21% year-on-year, stimulating terminal pork consumption and supporting increased slaughter demand [5] Future Outlook - The supply of heavier pigs may be limited in early January 2026 due to previous weight reduction practices in breeding, although demand is expected to rise as the lunar month approaches [5][6] - After the New Year holiday, terminal demand is anticipated to decrease, but stocking activities may resume as the lunar month progresses [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pig market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand this week, with short - term price fluctuations and a mid - term range - bound pattern. The price of live pigs is expected to rise first and then fall, remaining within a certain range. The LH2603 contract is expected to oscillate between 11,600 and 12,000 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals suggest that supply of pigs and pork will increase due to secondary fattening and demand for cured meat. Demand may improve slightly but remains pessimistic overall. The market is expected to have a short - term upward trend and mid - term range - bound movement. Attention should be paid to the monthly slaughter rhythm of large farms and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market. The overall view is neutral [10]. - The basis shows that the national average spot price is 12,670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2603 contract is 875 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, indicating a bullish signal [10]. - Inventory data as of September 30 shows that the pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month and 2.3% year - on - year increase; the sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a 0.01% month - on - month increase and 0.66% year - on - year decrease, suggesting a bearish signal [10]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upwards, which is a bullish sign [10]. - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [10]. - The short - term outlook is that the supply and demand of live pigs will increase, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall, remaining within a range, with the LH2603 contract oscillating between 11,600 and 12,000 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market is affected by the approaching peak season, with an increase in secondary fattening in the south and a decrease in slaughter. The supply is expected to increase, and the spot price is likely to rebound in the short term and remain range - bound in the mid - term [12]. - With the arrival of the demand for cured meat at the end of the year, the pig market is entering a stage of high supply and demand. However, the short - term price increase may be limited, and the price may fall back to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The pig farming profit has shifted from losses to small fluctuations, but still remains in the red. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has increased in the short term, supporting the short - term price of pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price of live pigs has stopped falling and stabilized, and the futures price is expected to rise in the short term and remain range - bound in the mid - term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the entry of the domestic pig supply into the peak season at the end of the year and the limited potential for further decline in the domestic pig spot price [14]. - Bearish factors are the expected improvement in the domestic macro - environment due to the initial Sino - US trade agreement and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The report presents various data on pig prices, including futures prices, spot prices, and price differentials. It also shows the trends of different pig - related prices over time, such as the basis, price spreads between different contracts, and the average prices of different pig specifications [15][16][18]. - On the supply side, it covers data on pig inventory (including different scales and types), import volume, breeding costs, feed profit expectations, slaughter volume, and profit margins. For example, as of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a 5.9% month - on - month and 5.2% year - on - year decrease; as of May 2024, the sow inventory was 39.96 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and 6.2% year - on - year decrease [28][29]. - On the demand side, it includes data on consumption trends, slaughter demand, and the relationship between pig and substitute meat prices [61][63]. - The report also analyzes the pig - grain ratio and the situation of pig reserve purchases and releases [64][68]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not explicitly provide detailed position data other than stating that the main players' net position is short and short positions are increasing [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-12-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，近期国内南方生猪二次育肥有所上升，出栏短期减少支撑生猪价格，加上腊肉 和灌肠需求释放，预计供给猪、肉双增。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，北方腊肉需求逐 渐释放支撑价格底部，但未来整体消费仍不乐观。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双增、猪价短期 震荡回升中期或维持区间震荡格局。关注月底集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。 中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价11520元/吨，2603合约基差125元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3. 库存：截至9月30日，生猪存栏量43680万头，环比增加0.2%，同比增加2.3%；截至9月末， ...