交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-11-20 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，国内进入中秋国庆双节后供需淡季，国内大型养殖场出栏开始减少支撑生猪短 期价格，预计本周供给猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，长假结束后至居民整 体消费意愿减弱，压制短期鲜猪肉消费。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期震荡回落 中期或维持区间震荡格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价11540元/吨，2601合约基差20元/吨，现货贴水期货。中性。 3. 库存：截至6月30日，生猪存栏量42 ...

生猪期货早报 2025-11-13 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，国内进入中秋国庆双节后供需淡季，国内大型养殖场出栏开始减少支撑生猪短 期价格，预计本周供给猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，长假结束后至居民整 体消费意愿减弱，压制短期鲜猪肉消费。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期震荡回落 中期或维持区间震荡格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价11795元/吨，2601合约基差95元/吨，现货贴水期货。中性。 3. 库存：截至6月30日，生猪存栏量42 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-11-11 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，国内进入中秋国庆双节后供需淡季，国内大型养殖场出栏开始减少支撑生猪短 期价格，预计本周供给猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，长假结束后至居民整 体消费意愿减弱，压制短期鲜猪肉消费。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期震荡回落 中期或维持区间震荡格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价11900元/吨，2601合约基差55元/吨，现货贴水期货。中性。 3. 库存：截至6月30日，生猪存栏量42 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to decline in the short - term, with a mid - term range - bound oscillation pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group farms' slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. - The spot price has a premium over the futures price, and the current inventory shows an increase, while the price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward direction, and the net short position of the main contract is increasing [10]. - It is expected that the pig price will bottom out and return to a range - bound pattern, with the LH2601 contract oscillating between 11,500 and 11,900 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to decrease in both pigs and meat this week. Demand is weakened by the post - holiday reduced consumer willingness, resulting in a short - term decline in fresh pork consumption. The market is expected to have a double - decrease in supply and demand, with short - term price decline and mid - term range - bound oscillation. Neutral view [10]. - **Basis**: The national average spot price is 11,940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 255 yuan/ton, indicating a premium of the spot over the futures. Bullish [10]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month and 4.2% year - on - year increase. Bearish [10]. - **Market Chart**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. Bearish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Bearish [10]. - **Expectation**: Pig supply and demand are both decreasing. The pig price is expected to bottom out and return to a range - bound pattern this week, with the LH2601 contract oscillating between 11,500 and 11,900 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. The slaughter of large pigs has decreased, resulting in a double - decrease in supply and demand. The spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and range - bound in the mid - term [12]. - After the festivals, pork demand has weakened in the short - term, but the spot price is supported by the decrease in supply and is expected to bottom out and rebound. The room for further price decline is limited [12]. - The losses in pig farming have recently expanded, reducing the enthusiasm for large pig slaughter in the short - term. The double - decrease in supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price has bottomed out and rebounded after the National Day, and the futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the mid - term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: The domestic pig supply enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price is limited [13]. - **Bearish**: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The document provides the prices of pig futures contracts (near - month 2511, main 2601), pig futures warehouse receipts, and the spot prices of foreign ternary pigs in different regions from October 28 to November 4 [14]. - **Market Trends**: Multiple charts show the trends of pig futures basis, spreads, spot prices of different pig specifications, and various supply - side and demand - side indicators, such as inventory, slaughter, and consumption [15][17][23]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is a bearish signal [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The supply of domestic large - scale pig farms has begun to decrease after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, which supports the short - term price of live pigs. It is expected that the supply of pigs and pork will both decrease this week. The overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market may experience a double - decline in supply and demand this week, with short - term pig prices oscillating downward and maintaining a range - bound pattern in the medium term. The LH2601 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,700 - 12,100 [8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content provided for daily prompt. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market has entered a slack season, with both supply and demand decreasing. The spot price of live pigs is weak in the short term and maintains a range - bound pattern in the medium term [10]. - Pork demand has weakened in the short term after the festivals, but the spot price of live pigs has returned to an oscillating state due to reduced supply. The continued decline space may be limited, and it may show a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [10]. - The loss of domestic pig - farming profits has recently widened, and the enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter has weakened in the short term. The double - decline in supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The spot price of live pigs has remained stable after the National Day, and the futures have generally returned to a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: The domestic live pig supply has entered a slack season after the long holiday, and the continued decline space of the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [11]. - **Bearish factors**: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war, and the domestic live pig inventory has increased year - on - year [11]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand**: In the supply aspect, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. In the demand aspect, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [8]. - **Base difference**: The national average spot price is 12,510 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the 2601 contract is 630 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [8]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, with a mid - term trend of bottoming out and then oscillating. The LH2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak pig prices and a mid - term oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the pig market shows a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a mid - term oscillating pattern [12]. - Pig demand has weakened in the short - term after the festivals, but spot prices are supported by reduced supply and may bottom out and rebound. The short - term profit of pig farming has worsened, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has decreased, supporting the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Domestic pig supply enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Bearish**: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Demand - side**: After the long holiday, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [10]. - **Price - related**: The national average spot price is 11,770 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are increasing [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic pig market is expected to see a double reduction in supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, and may bottom - out and rebound to maintain a volatile pattern in the medium - term. The LH2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 [10]. - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market shows a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a medium - term range - bound pattern [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market may experience a double reduction in supply and demand, and pig prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and may bottom - out and rebound in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on US and Canadian pork imports boost market confidence. After the festivals, the market has a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a medium - term range - bound pattern [12]. - Pork demand has weakened in the short - term after the festivals, but the spot price has returned to a volatile state due to reduced supply. The continued decline space may be limited, and it may show a bottom - out and rebound trend [12]. - The loss of domestic pig farming profits has recently expanded, reducing the short - term enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter. The double - reduction in supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [12]. - The pig spot price has remained stable after the National Day, and the futures have generally returned to a medium - term range - bound pattern. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the continued decline space of domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh - meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, large - scale farms in China have started to reduce slaughter, and it is expected that the supply of pigs and meat will decrease this week. As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - **Demand**: The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but after the long holiday, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [10]. - **Price**: The national average spot price is 10,970 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 1,225 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are increasing [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The medium - term outlook for global soybean supply remains loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short term, due to the US's tariff threats, soybean prices will likely trade in a range [4]. - For oils, the medium - term outlook is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asia, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [6][7]. - For sugar, given the high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. - For cotton, considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. - For eggs, a bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. - For live pigs, in the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell due to concerns over China - US trade relations. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan/ton, with good trading and pick - up. Last week, domestic port soybean inventories exceeded 10 million tons, and soybean meal inventories continued to decline. MYSTEEL estimates this week's soybean crushing volume at 2.1674 million tons [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Imported soybean costs are supported by low US soybean valuations, China - US trade relations, and Brazil's planting season trading. However, they also face pressure from factors such as global protein raw material supply surplus [3]. - **Strategy**: Given the large domestic supply pressure and high soybean inventories, the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, due to tariff threats, prices will likely trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the previous month. As of October 10, 2025, domestic soybean oil inventories increased by 1.31% week - on - week, and palm oil inventories decreased slightly. On Monday, domestic oils oscillated and declined [6]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term outlook is supported, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly. Brazilian data shows that in the first half of September, sugar production increased year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased [9][11]. - **Strategy**: Given high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates are lower than in previous years, and cotton inventories are lower than the five - year average [14]. - **Strategy**: Considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: National egg prices are stable or falling, with supply - demand pressure remaining. Producers are eager to sell, but the circulation speed is slow [17]. - **Strategy**: A bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. Northern farmers are reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening provides some support, while southern farmers face greater pressure to sell [19]. - **Strategy**: In the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The supply and demand of live hogs are both increasing, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Spot prices are likely to remain weak in a volatile manner. Futures contracts 2511 and 2601 are mainly dragged down by the weak spot market and remain weak [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 10th, the main 2601 live hog futures contract opened slightly lower, then rose and then fell, closing down. The highest price was 12,310 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,130 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,140 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 17,324 lots to 276,137 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 10th, the average price of ternary hogs nationwide was 11.24 yuan/kg, down 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - **Supply - side**: In September, the actual completion rate of supply - side slaughter was only 96.5%, and some slaughter will be postponed to October. The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September. The slaughter weight increased seasonally. In the long term, the slaughter of live hogs is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year [7] - **Demand - side**: Currently, secondary fattening maintains sporadic replenishment. There is some replenishment demand due to low meat - making costs and declining pen utilization rates, and it has increased in some areas. Terminal demand lacks obvious positive support and has slightly declined after the festival. However, as the weather continues to cool, consumer demand may continue to rise. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume have slightly increased, but the overall increase is limited. On October 10th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 154,500 heads, an increase of 11,800 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 15,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 7,000 heads month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - As of October 9th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising live hog was - 77 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per live hog purchased with piglets was - 320 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 13 yuan/head [8][10] 3. Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15kg piglets in the week of October 9th was 281 yuan/head, a decrease of 53 yuan/head from the previous week [19] - The price difference between 150 - kg fat hogs and standard hogs in the week of October 9th was 0.26 yuan/jin, a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [19] - As of the week of October 9th, the average slaughter weight of live hogs nationwide was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.07 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 0.05% [19]

Core Viewpoint - The market is in a bearish trend with a strong supply and weak demand dynamic. The recent decline in pig prices during the holiday period reflects a significant increase in supply, while demand has not matched this increase, indicating that the bottom for pig prices may not have been reached yet [4]. Supply and Demand Logic - Short-term supply pressure continues with no positive drivers for pig prices, which are currently weak. The average price in many regions has fallen below 12 yuan per kilogram. The post-holiday demand is expected to decline, leading to sustained pressure on supply and prices [8]. - In the medium to long term, the supply base is established, and the overall trend for pig prices is expected to remain weak. There is potential for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, but speculative demand may influence short-term price movements [10]. Breeding and Slaughtering - The breeding sector is experiencing increased output, with the average weight of pigs being slightly reduced, indicating a stronger willingness to sell among farmers. However, the overall weight remains high compared to the same period last year, suggesting continued pressure [20][21]. - The slaughtering industry is seeing a post-holiday decline in operational rates and slaughter volumes, with average daily slaughtering volume dropping by 4.53% [35][36]. Cost and Profit Analysis - The breeding costs have remained relatively stable, but profits are being heavily influenced by falling pig prices. Currently, the breeding sector is experiencing losses, with self-breeding profits at approximately -135.62 yuan per head [48]. - The price of piglets continues to decline, leading to negative profits for piglet sales, which may affect the overall production capacity in the future [52]. Price Structure - The market is characterized by oversupply, leading to continued declines in spot prices. The price difference between fat and lean pigs has widened, indicating a more significant drop in lean pig prices compared to fat pigs [28][62].