1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous low replenishment and high culling have led to the expectation of a peak and decline in inventory. Coupled with the increasing hoarding sentiment after the temperature drop, the previous downward spiral of egg prices has been broken. With the subsequent consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - holiday stocking, the improved sentiment is expected to drive the market to build up inventory. The futures market has anticipated the price increase, but the long - positions are generally cautious due to the premium over the spot market, and the expectation of high supply still exists. It is expected that the market will be mainly in a strong consolidation in the short - term, and investors are advised to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the upper pressure for short - selling opportunities [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: In October, the domestic egg supply and demand were loose. Due to high inventory, the demand during the "Double Festivals" was lower than expected, and continuous rainfall in the north after the festivals led to a sluggish market. Egg prices were weak in the first and middle of the month, but rebounded at the end of the month as the temperature dropped and the downstream market became more active. The breeding industry continued to suffer losses, and the culling of chickens accelerated, with the average chicken age dropping to 493 days. Looking forward to November, the supply of newly - laid eggs will decrease and continuous culling will cause the inventory of laying hens to peak and decline, but the overall supply is still large, which may limit the price increase. The demand side will be frequently stimulated by factors such as hoarding and stocking, so the egg prices are expected to fluctuate strongly until the end of the inventory - building season [11]. - **Replenishment and Culling**: Affected by weak egg prices and breeding losses, the market's enthusiasm for replenishing chickens continued to be low. In October, the replenishment volume decreased to 78.3 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. Although the egg prices have rebounded from the low level, the breeding industry is still in a loss state, and the enthusiasm for culling chickens remains high. The price of old chickens has reached a multi - year low compared to the same period, and the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens has turned negative. The average chicken age has further decreased to 493 days, but it is still far from excessive culling [11]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was 1.359 billion, lower than the previous value and significantly lower than the previous expectation, mainly because the culling volume unexpectedly increased. However, the absolute quantity is still large, a month - on - month decrease of 90 million compared to September and a year - on - year increase of 5.6% compared to last year's 1.287 billion. Based on the previous replenishment data, considering normal culling, the inventory is expected to peak and decline gradually. It will remain flat in November and further decrease to 1.319 billion by March next year, a decline of 2.9%. Although the relative supply is decreasing, the absolute supply is still high [11]. - **Demand Side**: As the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs improve. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption side may experience a process of first building up inventory and then reducing it [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the upper pressure of the 01 - 06 contracts in the medium - term. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Movement**: In October, the domestic egg supply and demand were loose. Egg prices were weak in the first and middle of the month and rebounded at the end of the month. The prices of large - sized eggs in Heishan, Guantao, Huilongguan, and Dongguan all decreased to varying degrees. Looking forward to November, the egg prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: The spot market has stabilized with partial price increases, but the futures market has moved ahead, with the far - month contracts showing a slightly stronger trend, leading to a decline in the basis. The monthly spread shows a positive arbitrage trend [23]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Although the egg prices have rebounded from the low level, the breeding industry is still in a loss state. The enthusiasm for culling chickens remains high, and the absolute price of culled chickens and the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens have reached new lows [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - laying Hen Replenishment**: Affected by weak egg prices and breeding losses, the market's enthusiasm for replenishing chickens continued to be low. In October, the replenishment volume decreased to 78.3 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7% [33]. - **Culled Chicken Sales**: Although the egg prices have rebounded from the low level, the breeding industry is still in a loss state. The enthusiasm for culling chickens remains high, the price of old chickens has reached a multi - year low compared to the same period, and the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens has turned negative. The average chicken age has further decreased to 493 days, but it is still far from excessive culling [36]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was 1.359 billion, lower than the previous value and significantly lower than the previous expectation, mainly because the culling volume unexpectedly increased. However, the absolute quantity is still large, a month - on - month decrease of 90 million compared to September and a year - on - year increase of 5.6% compared to last year's 1.287 billion. Based on the previous replenishment data, considering normal culling, the inventory is expected to peak and decline gradually. It will remain flat in November and further decrease to 1.319 billion by March next year, a decline of 2.9%. Although the relative supply is decreasing, the absolute supply is still high [38][41]. 3.4 Demand Side - As the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs improve. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption side may experience a process of first building up inventory and then reducing it [46]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is lower compared to the same period last year and has decreased month - on - month. The profitability is at a relatively low seasonal level [51]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the egg market from aspects of spot, supply, cost, demand, etc. It points out that although egg demand has improved slightly and prices have rebounded, the overall situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the price is still fluctuating at the bottom. The increase in egg prices in the short - term is mainly due to the acceleration of old hen culling and the promotion of "Double 11". The short - term bottom of egg prices is expected to rise, but the long - term price trend still depends on the balance between supply and demand [5][15][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas this week was 2.93 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from last Friday. The egg price is expected to rise in the short - term, and the bottom is expected to be lifted [5]. - The decline of old hen prices has slowed down. The supply of the old hen market is relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of powder chickens is at a relatively low level, which has a certain supporting effect on the overall chicken price, but some high - price red chicken areas still have a slight decline risk [5]. 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - The national main producing areas' egg - laying hen culling volume in the week of November 06 was 19.81 million, a decrease of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in the week of November 06 was 493 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [12]. - In October, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly hatching volume of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises in October was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [12]. 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of November 06, the corn price was around 2236 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3094 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was around 2493 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.74 yuan/jin for single - jin eggs [15]. - The egg price first fell and then rose this week, and the overall supply exceeded demand. The average egg price decreased week - on - week, so the breeding profit decreased. As of November 06, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous week [15]. 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - Affected by the "Double 11" promotion, the sales volume in the sales areas increased week - on - week. As of November 06, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative sales areas was 7300 tons, a 4% decrease compared with last week [18]. - The production - link inventory decreased week - on - week, and the circulation - link inventory increased week - on - week. As of November 06, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from last week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [18]. - The vegetable price index and pork price both rebounded slightly this week [18]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - The trading logic is that although the culling volume of culled hens has increased and the previous supply pressure has been relieved, the current in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still at a high level, and the short - term capacity reduction speed is expected to be relatively slow. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upward space is expected to be relatively limited [19]. - For trading, it is recommended to wait and see in terms of unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - Relevant data on egg - laying hen inventory, culling situation, chick replenishment, cold - storage eggs, egg - laying hen breeding, price differences, and basis are presented in graphical form, but no specific numerical analysis and conclusions are given in the text [22][26][27][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The high production capacity pressure still exists, and combined with the decline in spot prices, the short - term near - month contracts should be treated with a short - selling strategy on rallies. The far - month contracts may be stronger than the near - month contracts, supported by the logic of production capacity reduction [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 2852 yuan/500 kilograms, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13430 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 3531 hands [2]. - The egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 102 yuan/500 kilograms, and the trading volume of the active futures contract is 201629 hands, with a week - on - week decrease of 32748 hands [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 28 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 2.81 yuan/jin, and the basis (spot - futures) is - 38 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week decrease of 44 yuan/500 kilograms [2]. Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 114.4 (with 2015 = 100), and the culled laying hen index is 93.61 (with 2015 = 100), with a week - on - week decrease of 5.59 [2]. - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas is 2.6 yuan/feather, and the new chick index nationwide is 73.35 (with 2015 = 100), with a week - on - week decrease of 5.05 [2]. - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, and the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.4 yuan/hen, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.51 yuan/hen [2]. - The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 8.92 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 yuan/kg, and the age of culled chickens nationwide is 510 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2 days [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 18.48 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of pork is 4.99 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/kg [2]. - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.66 yuan/kg, the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.34 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 days [2]. - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.5 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.24 days, and the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13121.03 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 264.92 tons [2]. Downstream Situation The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7179 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 442 tons [2]. Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 5.51 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from yesterday; the average price in Hebei is 5.40 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.22 yuan/kg from yesterday; the average price in Guangdong is 6.40 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from yesterday; the average price in Beijing is 5.96 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from yesterday [2]. - The inventory of laying hens in production is still high, old hens have not been over - culled, high production capacity is still the main concern of the market, and post - festival consumption has seasonally declined. The loose supply - demand situation of eggs is expected to continue, which also continuously suppresses the near - month contracts [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The medium - term outlook for global soybean supply remains loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short term, due to the US's tariff threats, soybean prices will likely trade in a range [4]. - For oils, the medium - term outlook is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asia, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [6][7]. - For sugar, given the high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. - For cotton, considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. - For eggs, a bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. - For live pigs, in the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell due to concerns over China - US trade relations. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan/ton, with good trading and pick - up. Last week, domestic port soybean inventories exceeded 10 million tons, and soybean meal inventories continued to decline. MYSTEEL estimates this week's soybean crushing volume at 2.1674 million tons [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Imported soybean costs are supported by low US soybean valuations, China - US trade relations, and Brazil's planting season trading. However, they also face pressure from factors such as global protein raw material supply surplus [3]. - **Strategy**: Given the large domestic supply pressure and high soybean inventories, the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, due to tariff threats, prices will likely trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the previous month. As of October 10, 2025, domestic soybean oil inventories increased by 1.31% week - on - week, and palm oil inventories decreased slightly. On Monday, domestic oils oscillated and declined [6]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term outlook is supported, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly. Brazilian data shows that in the first half of September, sugar production increased year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased [9][11]. - **Strategy**: Given high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates are lower than in previous years, and cotton inventories are lower than the five - year average [14]. - **Strategy**: Considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: National egg prices are stable or falling, with supply - demand pressure remaining. Producers are eager to sell, but the circulation speed is slow [17]. - **Strategy**: A bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. Northern farmers are reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening provides some support, while southern farmers face greater pressure to sell [19]. - **Strategy**: In the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short - term, soybean meal is likely to fluctuate weakly due to high domestic supply pressure and uncertain factors in South American planting and weather [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: The center of the oils and fats market is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil from the US biodiesel policy, limited production growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and reduced export volume expectations from Indonesia. Oils and fats are expected to be strong in the medium - term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The data of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September are bearish. With expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries in the new season, a bearish outlook is maintained, and short - selling on rallies is advised in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - **Cotton**: After the National Day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak. The estimated cost support is around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Eggs**: The domestic egg market has a supply - demand imbalance. After the holiday, the futures price may remain weak, but there may be support from potential inventory transfers. It is advisable to wait for the bottom - building process and adopt a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy [15][16]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price of pigs may continue to decline. A strategy of short - selling near - term contracts and reverse arbitrage is recommended, while being cautious about post - holiday price fluctuations [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, CBOT soybeans rose about 2% compared to the pre - holiday closing price. Domestic soybean meal spot prices slightly decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton in some areas and increased in others. As of October 2, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 9% [2]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the cost side lacks clear positive factors. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to be loose, and in the short - term, soybean meal is likely to fluctuate weakly [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 plan for biodiesel in 2026. Reuters estimates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September may have decreased by 2.5% compared to August. During the National Day holiday, Malaysian palm oil rose about 4.2% compared to the pre - holiday closing price. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: Supported by multiple factors, the oils and fats market is expected to be strong in the medium - term. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated. During the National Day holiday, the price of raw sugar changed little. In the first half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The data are bearish, and with expected production increases in the new season, short - selling on rallies is advised in the fourth quarter [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures declined. During the National Day holiday, US cotton prices fell. Domestic processing enterprises' cotton purchase is rational, and the purchase price of seed cotton is lower than last year [12]. - **Strategy**: After the National Day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, domestic egg prices generally declined. Supply is large, demand is weak, and there is inventory accumulation in some areas [15]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand imbalance persists. After the holiday, the futures price may remain weak, but there may be support from potential inventory transfers. A wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, domestic pig prices generally declined. Supply exceeds demand, and there is a possibility of further price drops [17]. - **Strategy**: The current spot price may continue to decline. A strategy of short - selling near - term contracts and reverse arbitrage is recommended, while being cautious about post - holiday price fluctuations [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The pig market faces significant supply pressure, with high piglet production and large - scale enterprise plans to increase supply. In the short - term, the market is in a state of supply exceeding demand, and prices are expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound, but the increase is limited. In the long - term, prices will be under pressure until April next year [4][54]. - The egg market has sufficient supply, which suppresses price increases. Although there is an expected increase in demand in the short - term, the abundant supply will limit price increases. In the long - term, the high supply situation may be difficult to reverse, but if the Mid - Autumn Festival performance is poor, it may increase elimination and relieve future supply pressure [6][87]. - The corn market is in a state of intensified supply - demand game, with short - term supply and demand relatively balanced and prices having limited upward and downward space. In the long - term, new - season corn listing and cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the price center, but attention should be paid to weather conditions in production areas [7][108]. Summary by Variety Pig 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the national spot price was 13.65 yuan/kg, down 0.61 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.63 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan/kg; the 2511 contract closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton; the 11 - contract basis was - 550 yuan/ton, down 910 yuan/ton [4][54]. 2. Supply - The inventory of breeding sows increased from May to November 2024, decreased slightly from December 2024, and increased again from May to June 2025, remaining at the upper limit of the equilibrium range. With improved production performance, the pressure of pig slaughter before April next year is still high. Supply will increase in the third and fourth quarters, with a limited increase in August and a significant increase after September [4][54]. 3. Demand - Weekly slaughter rates and volumes increased slightly, but seasonal consumption was weak. Fresh - sales rates decreased slightly, and frozen - product inventory increased slightly. Overall consumption was poor, but there was potential consumption elasticity due to low frozen - product inventory [4][54]. 4. Cost - Weekly piglet and binary breeding sow prices decreased, self - breeding and self - raising profits declined, and purchased - piglet profits had a larger loss. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increased slightly. The national pig - grain ratio was 6.05:1 as of August 1, approaching the 6:1 warning level [4][54]. 5. Strategy - The 09 contract is restricted by weak reality and delivery pressure, with a resistance level of 14,000 - 14,200. Contracts 11 and 01 are stronger but still face supply pressure, with resistance levels of 14,200 - 14,500 and 14,500 - 14,700 respectively. Consider shorting on rebounds and focus on the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4][54]. Egg 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, down 0.24 yuan/jin; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.94 yuan/jin, down 0.25 yuan/jin. The 2509 contract closed at 3,391 yuan/500 kg, down 93 yuan/500 kg, and the basis was - 771 yuan/500 kg, down 287 yuan/500 kg [6][87]. 2. Supply - Newly - laid hens in August correspond to high - volume replenishment in April 2025. Although some old hens were culled due to price drops, the supply is still abundant due to cold - storage eggs. In the long - term, high replenishment from May to July 2025 means high supply from September to November 2025 [6][87]. 3. Demand - Current low prices stimulate downstream procurement. With Mid - Autumn Festival and school - opening preparations in mid - to - late August, demand is expected to increase seasonally [6][87]. 4. Strategy - The 09 contract has limited upside potential due to a low - level basis. Contracts 10 and 11 in the fourth quarter should be shorted on rebounds. If the elimination process accelerates, there may be long opportunities for contracts 12 and 01 [6][87]. Corn 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 2,255 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the basis was 45 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [7][108]. 2. Supply - Low prices increased traders' willingness to sell, and reserve rotations added to the market supply. Northeast grain supplemented the North China market, and a small amount of spring corn was listed in the South. Corn imports decreased in June, and overall market supply was sufficient [7][108]. 3. Demand - Increased livestock and poultry inventories drove feed demand, but the high price difference between corn and wheat led to more wheat purchases, squeezing corn demand. Deep - processing enterprises were in the red, with low operating rates and limited incremental demand [7][108]. 4. Strategy - The 09 contract will oscillate in the range of 2,250 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Consider the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [7][108].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the pig and egg industries is neutral [2][5] Group 2: Core Views - For the pig industry, although the supply of pigs is increasing monthly, the spot price is not under significant pressure and hovers around 15 yuan. The growth in demand can currently absorb the supply. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is deeply discounted. In the long term, the pig supply will continue to grow, and changes in supply and demand need to be monitored [2] - For the egg industry, after the May Day holiday, demand weakened, spot prices declined, inventory increased, and breeding profits remained in the red. As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, food companies have pre - holiday stocking needs, but due to weather in southern sales areas, the overall demand is increasing slowly. In the short term, the supply - demand imbalance of oversupply is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to Dragon Boat Festival stocking [4][5] Group 3: Market News and Key Data (Pig) - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract was 14,020 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton or 0.97% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 15.04 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 15.19 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 14.61 yuan/kg, unchanged [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices: On May 14, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 115.15, down 0.15 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 115.49, down 0.17 points. The average price of pork was 20.90 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; beef was 63.24 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; mutton was 59.96 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; eggs were 7.85 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; and white - striped chickens were 17.32 yuan/kg, up 2.3% [1] Group 4: Market News and Key Data (Egg) - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2506 contract was 2,921 yuan/500 kilograms, up 3 yuan or 0.10% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.16 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 3.35 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.89 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan [3] - Inventory: On May 14, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.82 days, up 0.01 days or 1.23%; the circulation - link inventory was 1.21 days, down 0.05 days or 3.97% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is neutral [3][7] Group 2: Core Views - For the pig industry, although the supply of live pigs is increasing monthly, the spot price has not been under significant pressure and has been hovering around 15 yuan. The growth in demand can currently absorb the supply. The spot price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, while the futures market is in deep backwardation. In the long - term, the supply of live pigs will continue to grow, and changes in supply and demand need to be continuously monitored [2] - For the egg industry, demand increased during the May Day holiday, but weakened after the stocking period. Spot prices have been declining, and inventories at all levels have been rising, with breeding profits in a loss state. During the Dragon Boat Festival stocking period, demand will increase slowly, but the short - term supply - demand pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to the Dragon Boat Festival stocking situation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 13,870 yuan/ton, a change of - 55.00 yuan/ton or - 0.39% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of outside ternary live pigs was 15.07 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 15.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.61 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on May 12: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 115.52, down 0.20 points from last Friday. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 115.91, up 0.10 points from last Friday. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.85 yuan/kg, up 1.1% from last Friday; beef was 62.98 yuan/kg, down 0.5%; mutton was 59.94 yuan/kg, up 1.0%; eggs were 7.98 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; and white - striped chickens were 17.27 yuan/kg, down 0.4% [1] Market Analysis - The increase in supply without a rapid price decline indicates that demand growth can absorb the current supply. The spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures market is in deep backwardation. Long - term supply will continue to grow [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral, and the live pig price may remain stable in the short - term [3] Egg Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2506 contract yesterday was 2,927 yuan/500 kg, an increase of 32.00 yuan or 1.11% from the previous trading day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.04 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.11 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.25 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.93 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.11 yuan [4] - Inventory: On May 12, the national production - link inventory was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.39 days from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.73 days, a decrease of 0.46 days from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Demand increased during the May Day holiday and then weakened. Spot prices declined, inventories rose, and breeding profits were in a loss state. During the Dragon Boat Festival stocking period, demand will increase slowly, but the short - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [7]