国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米月报 中下游库存逐步回升 玉米偏弱震荡 玉米 2025 年 12 月 26 日 主要结论 从国际市场来看，2025/26 年美国、乌克兰玉米产量增加，南美巴西、阿根 廷玉米产量相对稳定，全球玉米供需面总体偏宽松。国内方面，2025/26 年玉米 增产明显，但华北玉米质量较差，使得用粮企业的需求更多地转向东北玉米，较 好的承接了东北玉米增产的压力。目前整体玉米售粮进度较快，但由于产量增加， 国内基层余粮仍较充足。需求端来看，养殖行业持续亏损，生猪、鸡蛋行业产能 将下降，饲料需求短期有韧性，但未来偏悲观。深加工方面，淀粉加工利润不佳， 开机率低位，酒精消化劣质玉米为主。中下游库存行为来看，目前饲料、深加工 企业库存环比有明显回升，继续大幅提升库存的动力不足。操作上，震荡对待。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 分析师：覃多贵 从业资格号：F3067313 投资咨询号：Z0014857 电话：021-55007766-6671 邮箱：15580@guosen.com.cn 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 一、摘要 12月中上旬，期货市场因移仓换月与多头减仓影响，止涨回落，1月合约自2310的高点回落至2200上 方，下跌约110点，跌幅达到4.8%，目前的主力3月合约自2277跌至2185附近，下跌约92点，跌幅达到 4%左右。持仓量表现为1月合约减仓，3月合约增仓。现货端，锦州港玉米平仓价由2330跌至2295，下 跌35点，跌约1.5%，山东潍坊二等粮市场价自2260降至2250，蛇口港由2490降至2420。由此来看，现 货表现依旧相对坚挺。 二、基本面概况与分析 （一）售粮进度环比放缓，卖压或在节前释放 钢联数据显示，截至12月19日，全国售粮42%，同比加快4%，但环比明显放缓。其中东北售粮进度达 41%，同比偏快8个百分点，其中黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古分别为38%、36%、66%、34%，同比分 别增加7%、8%、14%、7%；华北售粮进度为37%，同比偏慢1个百分点，其中山东、河北分别为35%、 31%，同比偏慢2%、5%，河南地区销售进度为47%，同比加快5%。虽然当前全国售粮进度偏快，但目 前处于往年卖粮高峰期，供应压力犹在 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The pig market faces significant supply pressure, with high piglet production and large - scale enterprise plans to increase supply. In the short - term, the market is in a state of supply exceeding demand, and prices are expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound, but the increase is limited. In the long - term, prices will be under pressure until April next year [4][54]. - The egg market has sufficient supply, which suppresses price increases. Although there is an expected increase in demand in the short - term, the abundant supply will limit price increases. In the long - term, the high supply situation may be difficult to reverse, but if the Mid - Autumn Festival performance is poor, it may increase elimination and relieve future supply pressure [6][87]. - The corn market is in a state of intensified supply - demand game, with short - term supply and demand relatively balanced and prices having limited upward and downward space. In the long - term, new - season corn listing and cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the price center, but attention should be paid to weather conditions in production areas [7][108]. Summary by Variety Pig 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the national spot price was 13.65 yuan/kg, down 0.61 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.63 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan/kg; the 2511 contract closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton; the 11 - contract basis was - 550 yuan/ton, down 910 yuan/ton [4][54]. 2. Supply - The inventory of breeding sows increased from May to November 2024, decreased slightly from December 2024, and increased again from May to June 2025, remaining at the upper limit of the equilibrium range. With improved production performance, the pressure of pig slaughter before April next year is still high. Supply will increase in the third and fourth quarters, with a limited increase in August and a significant increase after September [4][54]. 3. Demand - Weekly slaughter rates and volumes increased slightly, but seasonal consumption was weak. Fresh - sales rates decreased slightly, and frozen - product inventory increased slightly. Overall consumption was poor, but there was potential consumption elasticity due to low frozen - product inventory [4][54]. 4. Cost - Weekly piglet and binary breeding sow prices decreased, self - breeding and self - raising profits declined, and purchased - piglet profits had a larger loss. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increased slightly. The national pig - grain ratio was 6.05:1 as of August 1, approaching the 6:1 warning level [4][54]. 5. Strategy - The 09 contract is restricted by weak reality and delivery pressure, with a resistance level of 14,000 - 14,200. Contracts 11 and 01 are stronger but still face supply pressure, with resistance levels of 14,200 - 14,500 and 14,500 - 14,700 respectively. Consider shorting on rebounds and focus on the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4][54]. Egg 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, down 0.24 yuan/jin; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.94 yuan/jin, down 0.25 yuan/jin. The 2509 contract closed at 3,391 yuan/500 kg, down 93 yuan/500 kg, and the basis was - 771 yuan/500 kg, down 287 yuan/500 kg [6][87]. 2. Supply - Newly - laid hens in August correspond to high - volume replenishment in April 2025. Although some old hens were culled due to price drops, the supply is still abundant due to cold - storage eggs. In the long - term, high replenishment from May to July 2025 means high supply from September to November 2025 [6][87]. 3. Demand - Current low prices stimulate downstream procurement. With Mid - Autumn Festival and school - opening preparations in mid - to - late August, demand is expected to increase seasonally [6][87]. 4. Strategy - The 09 contract has limited upside potential due to a low - level basis. Contracts 10 and 11 in the fourth quarter should be shorted on rebounds. If the elimination process accelerates, there may be long opportunities for contracts 12 and 01 [6][87]. Corn 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 2,255 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the basis was 45 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [7][108]. 2. Supply - Low prices increased traders' willingness to sell, and reserve rotations added to the market supply. Northeast grain supplemented the North China market, and a small amount of spring corn was listed in the South. Corn imports decreased in June, and overall market supply was sufficient [7][108]. 3. Demand - Increased livestock and poultry inventories drove feed demand, but the high price difference between corn and wheat led to more wheat purchases, squeezing corn demand. Deep - processing enterprises were in the red, with low operating rates and limited incremental demand [7][108]. 4. Strategy - The 09 contract will oscillate in the range of 2,250 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Consider the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [7][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, the global corn supply - demand situation will tighten, and the domestic supply pressure may ease year - on - year. The expected increase in livestock inventory may drive the rigid growth of feed consumption, and domestic demand policies will boost the consumption of the corn deep - processing industry. The domestic corn supply - demand will be in a tight trend, and the price center is expected to rise [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Background - The United States, China, Brazil, and Argentina are the top four corn - producing countries in the world, with the US accounting for 32% of global production and being the largest exporter. China's corn production has shown a stable growth trend. In 2024, the import dependence dropped to 1.6%. Corn consumption mainly includes feed, industrial, food, seed, and other uses, with feed consumption being the largest and showing rigid growth [4] - China's corn industry chain includes planting, processing, circulation, and consumption. Feed and starch processing are at the core of the industry chain [13] - Global corn supply is concentrated in a few countries. The US and China are the top two producers, accounting for 32% and 23% respectively. The top four exporters are the US, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine, with their combined exports accounting for nearly 70% of the global total in 2023/24 [16] - Global corn is concentrated in supply every six months. The growth cycles of China and the US in the Northern Hemisphere are similar, while Brazil in the Southern Hemisphere has two planting seasons [23] - The US and China are the largest corn consumers, with a combined consumption of over half of the global total in 2023/24. China's average annual growth rate of corn demand in the past decade was 4.3%, higher than the US's 0.6% [29] - Feed consumption is the largest use of corn, with a global consumption of 780 million tons in 2024, accounting for 63% of the total. The US is the largest in industrial consumption [34] - In China, corn planting is concentrated in the Northeast, North, and Southwest regions, with different planting patterns and acreage proportions in different areas [35][37] - China's corn production has been growing steadily. The planting area increased from 620 million mu to 670 million mu from 2020 - 2024, and the output increased from 261 million tons to 295 million tons. The import volume first increased and then decreased, with the import dependence dropping to 1.6% in 2024 [42] 3.2 Supply Decrease and Demand Increase - **Domestic Old - crop Corn**: The supply pressure has been reduced. The output increased slightly by 2.1% to 295 million tons in 2024/25. The import decreased by 49% to 1.377 million tons. The inventory is expected to drop by 87% to 230,000 tons, and the stock - to - use ratio decreased by 5 pct to 0.8% [49] - **Global Old - crop Corn**: The stock - to - use ratio decreased year - on - year. The estimated output (excluding China) in 2024/25 was adjusted up by 930,000 tons to 920 million tons, a 2.2% decrease. The ending inventory decreased by 16.1% to 86.47 million tons, and the stock - to - use ratio dropped by 0.2 pct to 9.3%. The US corn export volume was adjusted up by 3 million tons to 65 million tons [55] - **Domestic New - crop Corn**: The supply growth has slowed down. The planting enthusiasm may be affected due to weak prices and reduced profits in 2024. The import volume is expected to decrease, with the predicted import volume in 2024/2025 being adjusted down by 2 million tons to 7 million tons [58][61] - **Demand**: Feed demand is expected to be supported by the increase in the number of sows and good pig - raising profits. Deep - processing demand is currently mainly for rigid needs, and domestic demand expansion policies are expected to boost it [66]