行业 玉米月报 日期 2026 年 03 月 02 日 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 农业产品研究团队 研究员：刘悠然 卖压降低且补库需求 或震荡偏强 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ ＃summary＃观点：供给端，随着气温回升及春节假期结束，产区基层售粮意愿提 升，市场供应量或增加，但节后基层粮源仅剩三成有余，卖压降低， 基层仍有惜售挺价情绪，港口库存仍处偏低位置。替代品 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views Corn - The U.S. corn supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, constraining international corn prices, and there is still potential import pressure in the international market [2]. - Near the Spring Festival, the grain - holding entities' selling mentality has loosened, increasing the corn market supply. After the previous policy - grain auctions, enterprise inventories have risen above the safety line, and most grain - using enterprises' pre - festival stockpiling is basically over. The market trading enthusiasm has declined, and deep - processing enterprises' purchase prices have slightly decreased [2]. - The futures market is supported by strong spot prices, maintaining a relatively strong oscillation, but the upside pressure is still large, and the short - term high has declined [2]. Corn Starch - Near the Spring Festival, downstream demand is good,提货 is active, and the overall inventory has decreased. However, the overall inventory level is still relatively high [3]. - The starch futures market has maintained an oscillation recently, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2261 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2513 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - Corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 25 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (3 - 5) is - 59 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - Corn futures trading volume (active contract) is 760192 lots, down 114507 lots; corn starch futures trading volume (active contract) is 151286 lots, down 6295 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn is - 132837 lots, up 54494 lots; that of corn starch is - 23889 lots, up 3630 lots [2]. - Corn registered warehouse receipts are 54881 lots, up 2836 lots; corn starch registered warehouse receipts are 11611 lots, unchanged [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 307 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Outer Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 428.25 cents/bushel, down 2.75 cents; CBOT corn total trading volume (weekly) is 1667786 contracts, up 54400 contracts [2]. - CBOT corn non - commercial net long position (weekly) is - 51704 contracts, down 18281 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2373.43 yuan/ton, down 2.84 yuan; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2036.6 yuan/ton, down 34.17 yuan; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang is 2770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The international freight of imported corn is 52 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars [2]. - The basis of the main corn contract is 112.43 yuan/ton, up 7.16 yuan; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 97 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 444 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 573 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 205 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn yield in the U.S. is 425.53 million tons, and the sown area is 36.44 million hectares, both unchanged [2]. - The predicted annual corn yield in Brazil is 131 million tons, and the sown area is 22.6 million hectares, both unchanged [2]. - The predicted annual corn yield in Argentina is 53 million tons, and the sown area is 7.5 million hectares, both unchanged [2]. - The predicted annual corn yield in China is 295 million tons, and the sown area is 44.3 million hectares, both unchanged [2]. - The predicted annual corn yield in Ukraine is 29 million tons, down 3 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The corn inventory at southern ports (weekly) is 50.5 tons, down 19.2 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 440.5 tons, up 56.7 tons [2]. - The corn inventory at northern ports (weekly) is 180 tons, up 5 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly) is 102.8 tons, down 4.1 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 80 tons, up 24 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16.74 tons, down 0.2 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 3008.6 tons, up 30.7 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) are 31.93 days, up 0.61 days [2]. - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 138.54 tons, up 0.39 tons [2]. - The alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 57.43%, up 0.1%; the starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 59.99%, down 0.47% [2]. - The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 32 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Hebei, it is 53 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, it is - 91 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.13%, up 0.18%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.03%, down 0.13% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.71%, up 0.85%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 10.71%, up 0.85% [2]. Industry News - As of January 28, the sown area of Argentina's 2025/26 corn season accounted for 97.2% of the total expected area (7.8 million hectares), up from 93.1% a week ago [2]. - A private Brazilian meteorological agency issued a weather warning that the probability of rainfall in southern Brazil, Argentina, and southern Paraguay will be low next week [2]. Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to Mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global corn supply - demand situation is generally loose in 2025/26, with increased production in the US and Ukraine and relatively stable production in Brazil and Argentina. In China, there is a significant increase in corn production in 2025/26, but the quality of North China corn is poor, leading to more demand from grain - using enterprises shifting to Northeast corn. Currently, the overall corn selling progress is fast, but due to increased production, there is still sufficient grain left at the grassroots level. On the demand side, the breeding industry is continuously losing money, and the production capacity of the pig and egg industries will decline. Feed demand has short - term resilience but is pessimistic in the future. In the deep - processing sector, starch processing profits are poor, and the operating rate is low, while alcohol mainly digests low - quality corn. Regarding the inventory behavior of the mid - and downstream, the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly month - on - month, and there is insufficient motivation to further increase inventory substantially. The operation should be treated with a view of oscillation [1][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since December, the domestic corn market has declined from a high level, and then the spot market has also adjusted following the futures market. Futures play a leading role in the spot market. The weaker performance of futures than spot has led to a passive strengthening of the basis at the northern ports. After the corn futures reached a high level at the beginning of the month, market fear of high prices increased. Rumors of wheat and imported corn auctions emerged, suppressing the bullish sentiment. Futures fell first, which further increased the enthusiasm of traders to sell and realize profits. Coupled with the fact that high spot prices have indeed inhibited restocking demand, both futures and spot prices declined in a resonant manner [3]. 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis 3.2.1 Increase in US Corn Production and Significant Rebound in Ending Stocks - According to the USDA's December supply - demand report, in 2025/26, the US corn harvested area is 36.44 million hectares, the yield per unit is 11.68 tons per hectare, and the total output is 425 million tons. Feed consumption is 155 million tons, food and processing demand is 177 million tons, exports are 81.28 million tons, and the ending stocks are 51.53 million tons, with a stock - to - use ratio of 12.5%, lower than the November estimate of 13.3% but significantly higher than the previous year's 10.1% and also at a relatively high level since 2020/21. The significant increase in production is the key factor driving the balance sheet to become looser, mainly due to a large increase in area and a recovery - type growth in yield. Exports and domestic consumption have also increased correspondingly due to the supply boost. From the current export sales report, US corn export sales have increased by nearly 10 million tons compared with the same period of the previous year, and the overall completion progress is good [5]. 3.2.2 Brazil and Argentina's Production Expected to Remain Stable at a High Level - According to the USDA's December estimate, Brazil's corn production in 2025/26 is expected to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year but with little overall change. According to the latest estimate of Brazil's domestic institution CONAB, Brazil's corn production in 2025/26 is expected to be 139 million tons, a decrease of more than 2 million tons compared with the previous year, similar to the change degree estimated by the USDA. In Argentina, according to the USDA estimate, the production in 2025/26 is expected to be 53 million tons, exports are 37 million tons, and the ending stocks are 4.18 million tons. Overall, the production of Brazil and Argentina in South America in 2025/26 is generally stable. As of now, the weather in the producing areas has been good, and the possibility of achieving high - yield expectations in the future is high [7]. 3.2.3 Recovery - type Increase in Ukraine's Production but with a Revised - down Growth Rate - According to the USDA estimate, Ukraine's corn production in 2025/26 is expected to be 29 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared with the previous year's 26.8 million tons, with an increase rate of 8%. The increase in production is mainly due to a slight increase in area and the recovery of yield. The final ending stocks are 848,000 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous year, and the stock - to - use ratio is 2.92%, at a low level in recent years. Overall, although Ukraine's production has increased, due to the impact of adverse weather later, the production increase rate is lower than the previous expectation [10]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.3.1 Increase in New Crop Production and Fast Selling Progress - In terms of new crop production, according to the analysis report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national corn production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 300 million tons, an increase of more than 5 million tons compared with the previous year, mainly due to an increase in yield per unit. In terms of the listing rhythm, due to continuous rainfall during the harvest period in the North China production area, the quality of new corn is poor and the toxin content is high. Grain - using enterprises and grain merchants have a weak enthusiasm for purchasing North China corn, limiting the selling progress. On the other hand, the quality of Northeast corn is good, and there is more procurement from grain merchants in the inland areas, resulting in a fast selling progress of Northeast corn. According to the statistics of myagricultural.com, as of December 25, the selling progress of Northeast corn reached 44%, an increase of 8 percentage points year - on - year; the selling progress of North China corn was 40%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year - on - year; and the national corn selling progress was 45%, an increase of 4 percentage points year - on - year. Due to increased production, there is still sufficient grain left at the grassroots level in China [14]. 3.3.2 Poor Feed Consumption Expectations and Stable Deep - processing Consumption Year - on - Year - According to the calculation data of the Feed Industry Association, the feed output in November 2025 was 28.73 million tons, entering the seasonal decline stage month - on - month but significantly higher than the previous year's 27.1 million tons year - on - year, mainly affected by the expansion of the pig breeding industry's production capacity in 2024. For 2026, since the pig breeding profit has re - entered the loss range, and national policies are focusing on promoting the orderly reduction of production capacity in the pig industry, and the laying - hen breeding industry has also had a very poor year, feed consumption is expected to decline. In deep - processing, according to the sample statistics of myagricultural.com, since 2025/26, the consumption of corn in the national starch industry has decreased year - on - year, mainly because poor processing profits have led to a low operating rate. However, the consumption of corn in the alcohol industry has increased significantly year - on - year, mainly because there is a relatively large proportion of low - quality corn in North China, which is difficult to enter the food processing and feed processing fields and can only be consumed through alcohol processing. From the perspective of the total corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises, the cumulative consumption since this marketing year is similar to that of the previous year [18][19]. 3.3.3 Expected Reduction in the Substitution of Imported Grains and Wheat for Domestic Corn - Since September, the price difference between domestic wheat and corn has been at a relatively high level, giving corn a good cost - performance advantage in the feed field. From the perspective of the corn addition ratio in compound feed statistics of the Feed Industry Association, since September, the corn addition ratio in feed industry production has also continuously rebounded. In terms of import substitution, with the stable growth of China's corn production, the demand for imported substitute grains has decreased, and the volume of imported substitute grains has significantly decreased compared with previous years. The impact of imported substitutes is more reflected in a phased and regional manner [25]. 3.3.4 Rebound in Downstream Enterprise Inventory and Limited Motivation to Further Increase Inventory Significantly - In terms of the inventory of north - south ports, the inventory at northern ports has continuously rebounded and has reached a level close to 2 million tons, but it is still slightly lower than the same period in a neutral sense. Later, with the advancement of the new corn gathering at ports in the Northeast, the inventory at northern ports will also increase seasonally. The grain inventory in the Guangdong sales area is currently at a relatively low level compared with the same period, but with the increase in the arrival of imported grains, the inventory will also be supplemented to some extent. In terms of the raw material inventory of grain - using enterprises, the inventory of North China deep - processing enterprises has increased rapidly, while that of Northeast deep - processing enterprises is still low. From the perspective of the inventory - to - use ratio, the inventory - to - use ratio of national deep - processing enterprises rebounded rapidly in December, and the shortage pattern of raw materials for deep - processing enterprises has improved. The raw material inventory days of feed enterprises have also rebounded significantly to a neutral level compared with the same period. Due to the poor overall profit of the breeding sector and the pessimistic feed demand expectation, feed enterprises have little motivation to further replenish inventory significantly [29].

Summary - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the futures market has experienced a decline due to month-end position adjustments and long liquidation, with significant drops in both January and March contracts. However, the spot market remains relatively strong despite these declines [3][28]. Group 1: Market Performance - In mid-December, the January futures contract fell from a high of 2310 to around 2200, a decrease of approximately 110 points or 4.8%. The March contract also dropped from 2277 to about 2185, down approximately 92 points or 4% [3][28]. - The spot prices for corn at Jinzhou Port decreased from 2330 to 2295, a drop of 35 points or about 1.5%. Prices in Weifang, Shandong, fell from 2260 to 2250, and at Shekou Port from 2490 to 2420 [3][28]. Group 2: Supply and Sales Progress - As of December 19, the national grain sales reached 42%, a year-on-year increase of 4%, but the month-on-month growth has slowed significantly. The Northeast region's sales reached 41%, with notable increases in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Inner Mongolia [4][29]. - The sales progress in North China was 37%, slightly slower than last year, with Shandong and Hebei showing declines of 2% and 5% respectively. The sales in Henan were at 47%, up by 5% year-on-year [4][29]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand - As of December 19, the inventory at the four northern ports was 1.803 million tons, significantly lower than 4.39 million tons last year. The inflow of goods has remained high, indicating a positive market sentiment for grain sales [31]. - In Guangdong, the grain inventory was 1.303 million tons, with a slight increase in domestic corn inventory. However, the overall inventory remains low compared to last year [33]. Group 4: Feed Demand and Processing - The feed industry shows stable corn inventory levels, with an average of 29.98 days of inventory. The total feed production in November was 28.73 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [35][10]. - The processing sector is facing losses, with processing rates at 60.46% as of December 25, down about 6 percentage points year-on-year. This has limited the demand for corn [12][39]. Group 5: Import Auctions and Price Dynamics - The ongoing import corn auctions have seen high demand, but the low auction price of 2000 yuan/ton has led to a perception of supply being more abundant than it is. The auctions aim to alleviate inventory pressure and increase market supply [41][17]. - Price differentials between regions, such as between Guangdong and Northeast ports, have narrowed due to limited demand at higher prices, affecting the pricing dynamics in the market [42]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The overall supply-demand situation is trending towards a more relaxed state, with expectations of downward price adjustments in the near term. The seasonal peak in grain sales before the Spring Festival may also influence market dynamics [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The pig market faces significant supply pressure, with high piglet production and large - scale enterprise plans to increase supply. In the short - term, the market is in a state of supply exceeding demand, and prices are expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound, but the increase is limited. In the long - term, prices will be under pressure until April next year [4][54]. - The egg market has sufficient supply, which suppresses price increases. Although there is an expected increase in demand in the short - term, the abundant supply will limit price increases. In the long - term, the high supply situation may be difficult to reverse, but if the Mid - Autumn Festival performance is poor, it may increase elimination and relieve future supply pressure [6][87]. - The corn market is in a state of intensified supply - demand game, with short - term supply and demand relatively balanced and prices having limited upward and downward space. In the long - term, new - season corn listing and cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the price center, but attention should be paid to weather conditions in production areas [7][108]. Summary by Variety Pig 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the national spot price was 13.65 yuan/kg, down 0.61 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.63 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan/kg; the 2511 contract closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton; the 11 - contract basis was - 550 yuan/ton, down 910 yuan/ton [4][54]. 2. Supply - The inventory of breeding sows increased from May to November 2024, decreased slightly from December 2024, and increased again from May to June 2025, remaining at the upper limit of the equilibrium range. With improved production performance, the pressure of pig slaughter before April next year is still high. Supply will increase in the third and fourth quarters, with a limited increase in August and a significant increase after September [4][54]. 3. Demand - Weekly slaughter rates and volumes increased slightly, but seasonal consumption was weak. Fresh - sales rates decreased slightly, and frozen - product inventory increased slightly. Overall consumption was poor, but there was potential consumption elasticity due to low frozen - product inventory [4][54]. 4. Cost - Weekly piglet and binary breeding sow prices decreased, self - breeding and self - raising profits declined, and purchased - piglet profits had a larger loss. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increased slightly. The national pig - grain ratio was 6.05:1 as of August 1, approaching the 6:1 warning level [4][54]. 5. Strategy - The 09 contract is restricted by weak reality and delivery pressure, with a resistance level of 14,000 - 14,200. Contracts 11 and 01 are stronger but still face supply pressure, with resistance levels of 14,200 - 14,500 and 14,500 - 14,700 respectively. Consider shorting on rebounds and focus on the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4][54]. Egg 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, down 0.24 yuan/jin; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.94 yuan/jin, down 0.25 yuan/jin. The 2509 contract closed at 3,391 yuan/500 kg, down 93 yuan/500 kg, and the basis was - 771 yuan/500 kg, down 287 yuan/500 kg [6][87]. 2. Supply - Newly - laid hens in August correspond to high - volume replenishment in April 2025. Although some old hens were culled due to price drops, the supply is still abundant due to cold - storage eggs. In the long - term, high replenishment from May to July 2025 means high supply from September to November 2025 [6][87]. 3. Demand - Current low prices stimulate downstream procurement. With Mid - Autumn Festival and school - opening preparations in mid - to - late August, demand is expected to increase seasonally [6][87]. 4. Strategy - The 09 contract has limited upside potential due to a low - level basis. Contracts 10 and 11 in the fourth quarter should be shorted on rebounds. If the elimination process accelerates, there may be long opportunities for contracts 12 and 01 [6][87]. Corn 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 2,255 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the basis was 45 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [7][108]. 2. Supply - Low prices increased traders' willingness to sell, and reserve rotations added to the market supply. Northeast grain supplemented the North China market, and a small amount of spring corn was listed in the South. Corn imports decreased in June, and overall market supply was sufficient [7][108]. 3. Demand - Increased livestock and poultry inventories drove feed demand, but the high price difference between corn and wheat led to more wheat purchases, squeezing corn demand. Deep - processing enterprises were in the red, with low operating rates and limited incremental demand [7][108]. 4. Strategy - The 09 contract will oscillate in the range of 2,250 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Consider the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [7][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, the global corn supply - demand situation will tighten, and the domestic supply pressure may ease year - on - year. The expected increase in livestock inventory may drive the rigid growth of feed consumption, and domestic demand policies will boost the consumption of the corn deep - processing industry. The domestic corn supply - demand will be in a tight trend, and the price center is expected to rise [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Background - The United States, China, Brazil, and Argentina are the top four corn - producing countries in the world, with the US accounting for 32% of global production and being the largest exporter. China's corn production has shown a stable growth trend. In 2024, the import dependence dropped to 1.6%. Corn consumption mainly includes feed, industrial, food, seed, and other uses, with feed consumption being the largest and showing rigid growth [4] - China's corn industry chain includes planting, processing, circulation, and consumption. Feed and starch processing are at the core of the industry chain [13] - Global corn supply is concentrated in a few countries. The US and China are the top two producers, accounting for 32% and 23% respectively. The top four exporters are the US, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine, with their combined exports accounting for nearly 70% of the global total in 2023/24 [16] - Global corn is concentrated in supply every six months. The growth cycles of China and the US in the Northern Hemisphere are similar, while Brazil in the Southern Hemisphere has two planting seasons [23] - The US and China are the largest corn consumers, with a combined consumption of over half of the global total in 2023/24. China's average annual growth rate of corn demand in the past decade was 4.3%, higher than the US's 0.6% [29] - Feed consumption is the largest use of corn, with a global consumption of 780 million tons in 2024, accounting for 63% of the total. The US is the largest in industrial consumption [34] - In China, corn planting is concentrated in the Northeast, North, and Southwest regions, with different planting patterns and acreage proportions in different areas [35][37] - China's corn production has been growing steadily. The planting area increased from 620 million mu to 670 million mu from 2020 - 2024, and the output increased from 261 million tons to 295 million tons. The import volume first increased and then decreased, with the import dependence dropping to 1.6% in 2024 [42] 3.2 Supply Decrease and Demand Increase - **Domestic Old - crop Corn**: The supply pressure has been reduced. The output increased slightly by 2.1% to 295 million tons in 2024/25. The import decreased by 49% to 1.377 million tons. The inventory is expected to drop by 87% to 230,000 tons, and the stock - to - use ratio decreased by 5 pct to 0.8% [49] - **Global Old - crop Corn**: The stock - to - use ratio decreased year - on - year. The estimated output (excluding China) in 2024/25 was adjusted up by 930,000 tons to 920 million tons, a 2.2% decrease. The ending inventory decreased by 16.1% to 86.47 million tons, and the stock - to - use ratio dropped by 0.2 pct to 9.3%. The US corn export volume was adjusted up by 3 million tons to 65 million tons [55] - **Domestic New - crop Corn**: The supply growth has slowed down. The planting enthusiasm may be affected due to weak prices and reduced profits in 2024. The import volume is expected to decrease, with the predicted import volume in 2024/2025 being adjusted down by 2 million tons to 7 million tons [58][61] - **Demand**: Feed demand is expected to be supported by the increase in the number of sows and good pig - raising profits. Deep - processing demand is currently mainly for rigid needs, and domestic demand expansion policies are expected to boost it [66]