Group 1: Insurance Sector Insights - The recent adjustment in the predetermined interest rate for life insurance is expected to alleviate the pressure of interest rate losses, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the industry [2][5][24] - The insurance industry association has announced a new predetermined interest rate of 1.99%, triggering a mechanism for rate adjustments, with major insurers planning to switch to new products by September [3][4][22] - The adjustment of the predetermined interest rates is anticipated to improve the cost of liabilities, with a focus on transforming towards floating income products [4][24] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The bond market has experienced significant fluctuations due to various factors, including tightening liquidity and rising commodity prices, leading to a notable decline in bond prices [7][9] - The current high duration and leverage in the bond market limit the strategic flexibility of investors, making them more vulnerable to market volatility [8] - The recent rise in commodity prices poses a greater threat to the bond market than previous stock market gains, as it contradicts the fundamental pricing of bonds [9] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing holdings in major insurance companies such as New China Life, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance due to expected improvements in profitability and asset-liability matching [5][24] - The insurance sector is projected to see stable profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by a recovery in the stock and bond markets [22][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued insurance stocks for potential valuation recovery opportunities [24]

债券研究 / 2025.07.27 | 对于本轮债市回调的三点思考 | ન | 唐元懋(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | ■ 利率周度策略 | પ્ર | 0755-23976753 | | | P | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 本报告导读: | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | 股债不同向的根源,高久期拥挤在交易逻辑下的风险,商品上涨对债市的影响特征。 | ત | 孙越(研究助理) | | | ન | 021-38031033 | | 投资要点: | 4 | sunyue6(agtht.com | | O 过去一周,受到股债晓晓板、商品拉涨、资金收紧的多重利空扰动, | 登记编号 | S0880123070142 | | Partic Partic Partic Pro Property Comment | | | 相关报告 | 信用债回调阶段,谁更抗跌 2025.07.26 | | --- | | 市场情绪不佳,指数深蹲后小幅修复 2025.07.26 | | 机构行为数据库 0722 2025.07.22 | | 信用利差与等级利差有所收 ...