Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel oil futures market is experiencing a downward trend due to oversupply and weak global economic conditions, leading to a decline in prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the midday close, the main contract for fuel oil reached a high of 2675.00 CNY/ton and a low of 2579.00 CNY/ton, with a decline of 4.08% [1]. - The technical analysis indicates that the LU main contract fell by 3.2% and the FU main contract fell by 2.56% in the night session, with a focus on the support level around 2600 CNY [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions, particularly with a decrease in Russian shipments, but this is countered by increased supply from OPEC+ [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil is supported by easing supply pressures, although uncertainties remain regarding the recovery of the Kuwait Al-Zour refinery [2]. - The overall supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is trending towards looseness, while low-sulfur fundamentals have improved significantly compared to Q3 [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market anticipates that the first batch of crude oil quotas may be issued earlier in 2026, potentially weakening the demand for imports [2]. - The fuel oil price is expected to follow oil price fluctuations, influenced by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined by star rating in a standard way in the given context, but analysis provided [1][2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined by star rating in a standard way in the given context, but analysis provided [2] - Asphalt: Not clearly defined by star rating in a standard way in the given context, but analysis provided [1][3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends and investment opportunities of various energy products including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas. It provides insights into supply, demand, price movements, and suggests corresponding investment strategies based on different product fundamentals [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Categories Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC12 contract rising 1.52% intraday. There is still downside potential for oil prices this year as the oil price spread and spot premium have weakened since November and the most relaxed balance sheet quarter (Q1 next year) is yet to come. However, short - term support exists due to the resolution of the US government shutdown and geopolitical concerns. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: Although supported by geopolitical situations, the increase in Middle - East high - sulfur supplies due to OPEC+ production increases and the entry into the off - season for Middle - East refining and power generation demand, along with the possible early issuance of 2026 crude oil quotas, will lead to a looser supply [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply pressure has eased. There is uncertainty about the resumption of the Kuwait Azur refinery, and there are expectations of reduced low - sulfur arrivals in the Singapore market. The strong overseas diesel crack spreads support low - sulfur supply, and demand is also favorable. Consider gradually taking profits on the previous strategy of widening the high - low sulfur spread [2] Asphalt - The rebound in crude oil today drove asphalt to stop falling, with the 2601 contract rising 0.86%. The poor shipment volume not only disproves the "14th Five - Year Plan" end - of - term construction demand expectation but also signals that demand is lower than the same period last year. The slowdown in commercial inventory drawdown and the increase in the year - on - year difference in social inventory are negative factors for the asphalt market [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international liquefied gas market has been strong recently, with tight import supplies. The improvement in butane dehydrogenation device profitability has boosted downstream chemical enterprise operating rates, and the significant temperature drop in many places has increased combustion - end demand. With the decrease in refinery and port storage rates, LPG is expected to fluctuate strongly [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not provided [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas, providing investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, geopolitical factors, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC12 contract rising 1.52% intraday. There is still downward room for oil prices this year, but short - term support exists. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil supply tends to be loose due to increased Middle - East high - sulfur sources and weakened feedstock demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals have improved significantly compared to the third quarter. The strategy of widening the high - low sulfur spread can be gradually stopped for profit [2] Asphalt - The decline of asphalt stopped with the rebound of crude oil today, with the 2601 contract rising 0.86%. Fundamental negatives still suppress BU [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international liquefied gas market has been strong recently. With the tightening of supply - demand margins, LPG is expected to fluctuate strongly [4]