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PX及PTA成本支撑渐显,高库存或抑制反弹动能
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 08:15
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View PX and PTA have cost support, but high inventory may limit the rebound momentum. The polyester industry chain is in a weak - balance state, and the high - inventory pressure will restrict the upward space [1][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **PTA & PX**: On September 17, the PX main contract closed at 6,772.0 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 116.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,712.0 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 92.0 yuan/ton. The cost support for PX has weakened due to the significant decline in the crude oil price center. The PX - PTA processing fee may face compression pressure. The downstream polyester operating rate is at a seasonal high, but the terminal marginal increment has slowed down. The PTA factory inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply - demand structure remains loose [2][3]. - **Polyester**: On September 17, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,402.0 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous trading day. The polyester industry chain is in a weak - balance state. The high - inventory pressure will limit the upward space, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm during the traditional peak season from September to October [4]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures increased by 0.15% to 6,772 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 9.27%. The PX spot price in South Korea increased by 0.12% to 811 dollars/ton, and the PX basis decreased by 9.43% to - 116 yuan/ton [5]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures increased by 0.51% to 4,712 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 5.19%. The PTA basis decreased by 35.29% to - 92 yuan/ton [5]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures increased by 0.66% to 6,402 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 18.48%. The short - fiber basis decreased by 33.64% to 73 yuan/ton [5]. - **Other products**: The prices of most other products in the industry chain remained unchanged on September 17, except for the slight decline in the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: On September 17, Milan was sworn in as a Federal Reserve governor before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Trump administration will appeal the court's ruling on Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook. On September 16, Michigan officials said there was no evidence that Cook violated the primary residence reporting regulations, and former Federal Reserve official Brad said he was "very interested" in becoming the Fed chair under certain conditions [7]. - **Supply - demand (demand)**: On September 17, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 751.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 10.28%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 604.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 148.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the main futures and basis of PX, PTA, and short - fiber; the spot prices of PX and PTA; PX capacity utilization; PTA and short - fiber futures spreads; PTA processing profit; industry chain load rate; polyester product sales and production; and inventory days [9][11][13][15][17][18][21][23][24][25][26][27].