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可转债周报:中长期资金如何看待当前可转债-20250723
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-23 14:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - From July 14 to July 19, 2025, the convertible bond market continued its gentle recovery, with steadily rising trading activity. The focus of capital allocation shifted towards mid - cap individual bonds with fundamental support and elasticity expectations. The equity market continued its structural differentiation, with the growth style relatively dominant. The science - and - technology innovation sector performed prominently, and there was also capital inflow in the cyclical manufacturing direction. The valuation structure of convertible bonds stretched overall, and the impetus for valuation repair of medium - and high - parity bonds increased. Since 2025, the proportion of convertible bonds held by insurance funds has been continuously rising compared to 2024, reflecting the enhanced preference of stable long - term funds for assets that combine increased returns and high safety margins. It is recommended to balance the layout of high - quality medium - and low - priced convertible bonds with coupon advantages and credit support while paying attention to high - prosperity directions [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Insurance Funds' Allocation in the Convertible Bond Market - As of June 2025, the proportion of convertible bonds held by insurance funds had steadily increased to 8.1%. Although the absolute face value of holdings decreased slightly due to market shrinkage, it showed an enhanced preference for convertible bond assets with safety margins and stable returns. It is recommended to focus on varieties with low valuations, high coupons, and good credit qualifications as an important supplement to the bottom - position defensive allocation [9]. - From the overall perspective of the two markets, the proportion of convertible bonds held by insurance funds in the market showed a marginal upward trend. Although the face value of convertible bonds held by insurance institutions decreased from 64.58 billion yuan in June 2024 to 57.64 billion yuan in June 2025, mainly due to the simultaneous decline in the overall scale of the convertible bond market, the proportion increased from 7.8% to 8.1%, indicating an enhanced relative allocation willingness [16]. - In the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the proportion of insurance funds increased significantly, while in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, it was relatively stable. In June 2025, in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the proportion of insurance funds increased by 1.2 percentage points year - on - year to 6.7%. In the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the proportion of insurance funds decreased by 0.2 percentage points year - on - year to 9.1%, possibly due to the conversion or maturity of some bank convertible bonds [18][21]. 3.2 Market Theme Weekly Review 3.2.1 Equity Theme Weekly Review - During the week from July 14 to July 19, 2025, the trading themes in the equity market were active. The rare - earth index led the market with a 17.5% cross - week increase, and the first - board index followed with a 15.3% increase. The pharmaceutical technology theme performed well, and the new - energy sector recovered slightly. The digital economy sector showed structural differentiation. Some trading - related indexes showed significant increases, but there were risks of short - term volatility amplification [26]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Weekly Review - During the week, the convertible bond market continued to rise, with the increase moderately converging. The trading activity reached a new stage high, and the market style shifted towards small - cap bonds. The valuation structure showed that the low - parity range was repaired, and the high - parity range was compressed. The implied volatility rose, and the market sentiment stabilized and recovered. At the industry level, the home appliance, computer, and communication sectors led the increase. It is recommended to focus on medium - priced bonds with safety margins and catalytic expectations and seize the rotation and repair window [29]. 3.3 Market Weekly Tracking 3.3.1 Main Stock Indexes Strengthened, with High - Prosperity Sectors as the Main Theme of the Week - The main A - share stock indexes continued to strengthen. The ChiNext Index led the rise with a 3.2% cross - week increase. The science - and - technology innovation small - and - medium - cap stocks performed prominently. However, the main funds continued to flow out, and the outflow pressure increased. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was about 1.5 trillion yuan, the same as last week [30]. - The A - share market continued its structural differentiation. The communication sector led the rise with a 7.5% increase, while the bank sector led the decline with a 3.4% decrease. The trading volume of leading sectors expanded with the increase in prices. The market funds continued to concentrate on high - prosperity sectors, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the high - prosperity sector market [34]. - The market sector congestion showed a differentiated pattern, with funds concentrating on high - elasticity sectors. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of increased volatility in sectors with continuously high congestion [40]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bond Market Followed and Strengthened, with Small - Cap Convertible Bonds Performing Well - The convertible bond market continued to rise, with small - cap convertible bonds leading the increase. The valuation stretched in each parity range, and the implied volatility continued to rise. The median price of convertible bonds oscillated upward, indicating high market trading sentiment [44][50][53]. - The performance of convertible bonds in each sector was generally strong, with funds becoming more concentrated. The home appliance, computer, and communication sectors led the increase, and the pharmaceutical, basic chemical, and power equipment sectors ranked among the top in terms of trading volume [56]. - Individual convertible bonds generally strengthened. The top - rising convertible bonds were mostly driven by the underlying stocks, while the top - falling ones were dragged down by the underlying stocks [62][63]. 3.4 Primary Market Tracking and Clause Game - During the week from July 14 to July 19, 2025, two convertible bonds were listed, and seven listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans. The current total scale of projects in the exchange - acceptance stage and later was 64.96 billion yuan [68][69][71]. - Regarding the downward - revision of convertible bonds, eight convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward - revision, four announced no downward - revision, and one proposed downward - revision [75][78]. - Regarding the early redemption of convertible bonds, five convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption, three announced no early redemption, and five announced early redemption [83].