近期中东局势的紧张对 A 股不同行业和板块的影响并不相同，传导链条相对复 杂。其中若干板块的波动有可能进一步加大，并因此形成投资机会。例如，军工、 航运、油汽、煤化工、黄金、战略小金属等。此外，还有些行业是有可能间接受 益的，例如黄金板块的阶段性上涨有可能带动铜、铝等金属。但值得注意的是， 上述行业中的转债数量相对有限，存量的相关转债更集中于军工和航运等行业。 而且，上述行业的正股在前期已有一定的涨幅，转债市场相对于正股的估值更是 明显偏贵。鉴于此，我们建议投资者以逢低买入的策略进行交易。 我们判断，中东局势的变化具有两点特征：其一是难以提前预知，或者说是不容 易准确预判；其二是事态较可能在紧张与缓和之间反复切换。与此对应的是：相 关转债的价格走势具有典型的事件驱动特征，且事件催化剂既具有随机性也具有 反复性。在这样的背景下，主动去"赌"局势变化的投资胜率并不会高，不如相 对被动的逢低买入策略。 2026 年 3 月 1 日 总量研究 中东局势紧张，转债如何应对？ ——2026 年 3 月 1 日可转债观察 要点 1、中东局势紧张，转债如何应对？ 2026 年 2 月 28 日北京时间 14 时 30 分许（ ...

证券研究报告 | 可转债投资策略 | 债券研究 耐普转 02 新券投资价值分析报告 ——可转债研究报告 核心观点 ❑ 转债基本要素 耐普矿机本次发行的耐普转 02（123265.SZ），在条款设计上整体中规中矩，下修 （85%，15/30）、赎回（130%，15/30）、回售三大附加条款均采用市场标准化组 合。兼具一定债底安全边际与较强股性弹性，纯债属性对价格形成一定托底，对 于偏好防守的配置资金具备基本的安全边际。 ❑ 项目定位及投入 耐普转 02 对应的核心募投项目——秘鲁年产 1.2 万吨新材料选矿耐磨备件制造 项目，配套补充流动资金，本质上是公司在海外业务高景气、产能约束凸显背景 下，推进全球产能布局的关键举措，是出海 2.0 战略的"压舱石"项目。该募投 项目总投资 57144 万元，拟使用募集资金 32500 万元，占项目投资比重约 56.87%；建设周期约 2.5 年。项目设计年产 1.2 万吨全品类新材料选矿耐磨备 件，包括磨机备件 8500 吨、渣浆泵过流件 1420 吨等，达产后将与智利、赞比亚 基地共同完善拉美—非洲—中亚全球生产网络。 ❑ 同类转债对比 公司所处行业为机械设备行业，估值 ...

Group 1 - The core investment philosophy of Liu Yicheng emphasizes "doing the long-term right thing," balancing returns and risks while aiming to provide products with long-term investment value and stable elasticity [1] - Liu Yicheng's investment framework combines trend and value investing, focusing on asset value to enhance investment success rates [1] - The South Fund Yu Ying One-Year Holding Mixed A (014094) has achieved a net value growth rate of 24.60% since its inception, outperforming the benchmark growth rate of 18.14% [1][2] Group 2 - Liu Yicheng believes the current market is in a "relatively easy decision-making phase," with attractive overall stock market valuations and structural opportunities due to many sectors being at the bottom [2] - Key investment focuses include technology innovation and high-end manufacturing, globally competitive overseas enterprises, bottom cyclical sectors, and traditional dividend assets [2] - Liu Yicheng maintains an optimistic outlook for the capital market in 2026, supported by three core variables: the continuation of a global loose credit cycle, the ongoing rebalancing of global asset allocation towards China, and the long-term trend of domestic residents increasing equity asset allocation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of convertible bonds, using Tesla's experience in 2019 as a case study to illustrate the benefits and risks associated with this investment type [3][5][7]. Group 1: Tesla's Convertible Bond Situation - In 2019, Tesla faced significant financial pressure, needing to repay a $920 million convertible bond, which constituted 25% of its cash reserves at the time [5]. - Investors holding the convertible bonds hoped to convert them into stock to alleviate Tesla's debt burden, but the conversion was contingent on the stock price being above the conversion price [8][10]. - Ultimately, no investors chose to convert their bonds into stock, forcing Tesla to repay the $920 million in cash [14]. Group 2: Benefits of Convertible Bonds - Convertible bonds allow investors to enjoy the benefits of both debt and equity; they act as bonds when not converted, providing stable interest income without worrying about company performance [16][18]. - Upon conversion, they become equity, allowing investors to share in the company's growth and potentially earn higher returns than traditional bonds [20][21]. Group 3: Practical Strategies for Investing in Convertible Bonds - When stock prices rise above the conversion price, investors can convert their bonds into stock and sell for a profit [23]. - Investors should be cautious of "forced redemption" clauses, which can occur if the stock price exceeds 130% of the conversion price for a specified period, potentially leading to losses if not managed properly [25][27][29]. - If stock prices fall below the conversion price, investors should hold the bonds until maturity to receive the face value plus interest, assuming the company does not go bankrupt [31][33]. Group 4: Investment Approaches - The first approach is to buy new convertible bonds, which carry low risk but limited returns, often referred to as "new bond subscriptions" [33][34]. - The second approach involves purchasing existing convertible bonds in the market, which carries higher risk and requires thorough research due to market volatility and different trading rules [40][41][45]. - The third approach is to invest in convertible bond funds, which allow professional management of investments, suitable for those seeking higher returns with acceptable volatility [49][52][54].

曾喜 滋滋卖出嘉美转债的兄弟们，看到今年美国超级碗上追觅科技的广告了吗？是否会流下几滴悔恨的眼泪... 追觅科技有特斯拉的感觉，是个充满话题和争议的公司，包括创始人，能吹也能干，但是个极致doer，比坐在键盘前喷口水的talker（包括 我）还是强太多太多了。 | 转债代码 | 转债名称 | 类型 | 日期 | 公告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 118016 | 京源转债 | 不强赎 | 2026-02-11 | 公告 | | 113625 | 江山转债 | 不下修 | 2026-02-11 | 公告 | | 转债代码 | 转债名称 | 现价 | 强赎价 | 最后交易日 | 最后转股日 | 转股价值 | 剩余规模 | 转债占正股 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | (亿元) | 流通市值比 | | 118043 | 福立转债 | 143.809 | 100.397 | 2026-02-05 | 2026-02-10 | 144.23 | 0.010 | 0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the newly issued Lianrui Convertible Bond (118064.SH) is a high-quality bond with strong debt protection and reasonable option pricing, suitable for institutional investors focusing on new bond subscriptions and short to medium-term allocations [1][12]. - The bond has a small issuance size of 6.95 billion yuan and a market capitalization of the underlying stock at 157.20 billion yuan, indicating a low dilution rate for the underlying stock and ample room for adjustment [1][12]. - The bond's terms include a down adjustment clause at 85% and a redemption clause at 130%, aligning with current market trends for convertible bonds [1][12]. Group 2 - The two major fundraising projects associated with the Lianrui Convertible Bond target high-performance ultra-pure spherical powder materials for high-speed substrates and high thermal conductivity pure spherical powder materials, which are in high demand in AI high-frequency substrates and HBM/electric vehicle thermal management [2][12]. - Upon full production, the high-performance ultra-pure spherical powder project is expected to generate annual sales revenue of 658.973 million yuan and an average annual profit of 179.6157 million yuan, while the high thermal conductivity project is projected to achieve annual sales of 310.4957 million yuan and an average annual profit of 63.5255 million yuan [2][12]. Group 3 - The company operates in the basic chemical industry, with comparable convertible bonds such as Anji Convertible Bond and Dinglong Convertible Bond showing premium rates ranging from 30% to 70% [3][16]. - The underlying stock of Lianrui New Materials is currently in a growth phase characterized by high-end electronic materials and accelerated growth driven by AI computing power, with revenue and net profit expected to show a "V-shaped" fluctuation from 2020 to 2024 [4][17]. - By 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 960 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.94%, and a net profit of 251 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.47%, indicating strong growth potential in the high-end industrial powder materials sector [4][17]. Group 4 - The investment strategy for the Lianrui Convertible Bond suggests a focus on new bond subscriptions and short to medium-term trading opportunities, with a cautious approach to high premiums and strong redemption expectations in the short term [5][18]. - The report recommends that institutional investors actively participate in the new bond subscription, while in the secondary market, they should prioritize locking in profits and controlling positions when pricing exceeds benchmarks [5][18]. - The overall investment theme for 2026 is expected to revolve around changes in capital expenditure in the downstream semiconductor industry and the company's capacity expansion pace [5][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index and Wind All - A Index rising, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 1.32%. The equity and convertible bond markets fluctuated at high levels with weaker overall gains than in Q3. The conversion premium rate increased from 44.73% on September 30 to 46.57% on December 31 [1][10]. - At the end of Q4 2025, the scale of convertible bonds held by funds decreased, but the proportion of the market value of convertible bonds held by funds to the balance of the convertible bond market increased. Different - type funds had differentiated changes in the scale of convertible bonds held, with mixed - bond - type secondary funds increasing their holdings and passive - index - type bond funds reducing their holdings [2][11]. - Convertible bond funds' scale increased quarter - on - quarter. Their performance was weaker than the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind All - A Index in Q4 2025. The average return rate was 0.86%, and the median return rate was 1.09% [3][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Q4 Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.22%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.01%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.32%. The conversion premium rate increased from 44.73% on September 30 to 46.57% on December 31 [1][10]. 3.2 Fund Holding Convertible Bond Behavior Analysis 3.2.1 Fund Holding Convertible Bond Total Scale Change - By the end of Q4 2025, the balance of the convertible bond market was 552.999 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.551 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter. The scale of newly issued convertible bonds was 15.035 billion yuan. The scale of convertible bonds held by funds was 308.256 billion yuan, a reduction of 8.362 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter, a 2.64% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The proportion of the market value of convertible bonds held by funds to the balance of the convertible bond market was 55.74%, a 3.71 - percentage - point increase from the end of Q3 2025 [11]. 3.2.2 Various Funds' Holding Convertible Bond Scale Change - In Q4 2025, mixed - bond - type secondary funds held the largest scale of convertible bonds (110.566 billion yuan), followed by mixed - bond - type primary funds (66.391 billion yuan) and passive - index - type bond funds (60.141 billion yuan). Mixed - bond - type secondary funds increased their holdings by 39.28 billion yuan, and mixed - bond - type primary funds increased by 16.07 billion yuan. Passive - index - type bond funds reduced their holdings by 90.87 billion yuan, and other types of funds also had different changes in holdings [15][19]. 3.2.3 Fund Positioning Behavior Analysis - **Fund Positioning Industry Distribution**: The top five industries with the largest scale of convertible bonds held in Q4 2025 were banking (55.014 billion yuan), power equipment (47.634 billion yuan), basic chemicals (24.739 billion yuan), electronics (24.298 billion yuan), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (17.188 billion yuan). Non - ferrous metals had the largest reduction in holdings (4.636 billion yuan), and the electronics industry had a relatively large increase in holdings (2.853 billion yuan) [23][24]. - **Fund Positioning Individual Bond Distribution**: Among the top 5 convertible bonds held by funds, 3 were bank - related (Industrial Bank Convertible Bond, Shanghai Bank Convertible Bond, and Chongqing Bank Convertible Bond). Industrial Bank Convertible Bond had the largest increase in holdings (1.905 billion yuan) [29][30]. - **Fund Holding Convertible Bond Rating**: AA - rated convertible bonds had the highest proportion (30.81%) among those held by funds [33]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Fund Holding Convertible Bond Behavior Analysis 3.3.1 Convertible Bond Fund Scale Change - By the end of Q4 2025, there were 38 existing convertible bond funds, with a holding scale of 51.287 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 2.15 billion yuan [34]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bond Fund Positioning Behavior Analysis - **Convertible Bond Fund Positioning Industry Distribution**: The convertible bond funds held the largest market value of convertible bonds in the power equipment industry (7.331 billion yuan). The banking industry had the largest increase in holdings (659 million yuan), and non - ferrous metals had the largest reduction in holdings (1.553 billion yuan) [35]. - **Convertible Bond Fund Performance**: In Q4 2025, the average return rate of convertible bond funds was 0.86%, the median return rate was 1.09%, and the average return rate of the top - ten convertible bond funds was 2.79%. Their performance was weaker than the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind All - A Index [40].

Core Viewpoint - The bond investment landscape is facing unprecedented challenges due to tightening yield protection and increased market volatility, necessitating a shift towards more refined and flexible investment strategies [1] Group 1: Current Challenges in Bond Investment - Bond fund managers are grappling with dual challenges: the re-evaluation of asset cost-effectiveness and the pressure on the stability of the liability side [2] - Since Q4 2024, a recovery in equity markets and strength in assets like gold have led to increased capital flow between different asset classes, reducing the scarcity of bond assets [2] - The pressure from shrinking fund sizes and the need for liquidity management have amplified market volatility, requiring higher standards for liquidity management [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy Adjustments - Investment strategies are being refined with a focus on absolute returns and risk control, leading to a reduction in the average duration of bond portfolios and increased flexibility in duration management [2] - The strategy has shifted from a focus on medium to long-term allocations to a combination of short-duration core holdings and tactical trading [2] - Enhanced liquidity buffers are being established by closely monitoring subscription and redemption patterns to maintain operational flexibility during market fluctuations [2] Group 3: Market Outlook for 2026 - The bond market is expected to exhibit a "range-bound and structurally differentiated" pattern in 2026, with 10-year government bond yields likely fluctuating between 1.7% and 2.1% [3] - Long-term rates are under pressure due to supply-demand dynamics, while short-term rates remain stable due to a loose funding environment, potentially leading to a steepening yield curve [3] - Institutional behavior is influencing market dynamics, with a gradual return of pricing power to bank proprietary systems and a cautious approach to duration selection among investors [3] Group 4: Balancing Risk and Return - The challenge of balancing return enhancement while controlling drawdowns is critical in the current bond market environment [4] - A systematic strategy is proposed, focusing on high-grade, short-duration assets to ensure basic returns and liquidity, which serves as a core barrier against drawdowns [4] - Strict control of leverage levels is emphasized to avoid amplifying drawdown risks, with leverage being used only during periods of short-term liquidity [4] Group 5: Asset Allocation Preferences - The company is optimistic about the risk-reward ratio of convertible bonds in the current environment due to their shrinking supply and potential benefits from improving equity market conditions [5] - The strategy involves dynamic adjustments based on stock performance and terms, with phased investments during price corrections and timely profit-taking once valuations reach reasonable levels [5]

Overall Performance - As of December 25, 2025, there are 128 mixed public wealth management products with an investment period of 3-6 months, showing an average net value growth rate of 2.97% over the past six months, with an average maximum drawdown of 0.94% [5] - 29 products have a net value growth exceeding 5%, while over 60% of the products have a growth rate between 1% and 5%, totaling 82 products; 17 products have a growth rate below 1% [5] - Ningyin Wealth Management and Hangyin Wealth Management have performed exceptionally well, with average net value growth rates of 8.49% and 7.60% respectively over the past six months [5] Highlighted Product Analysis - From June to December 2025, the gold ETF market experienced a strong upward trend, with several gold ETFs, such as Huaan Gold ETF and Bosera Gold ETF, showing a net value growth rate exceeding 30% [7] - The convertible bond market also performed well, driven by technology and growth stocks, with Bosera CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond ETF rising by 15.93% year-to-date as of November 21, significantly outperforming pure bond indices and high-yield bond ETFs [7] - Hangyin Wealth Management's "Happiness 99 Excellent Mixed (Diverse Constant Profit) 180-day Holding Period" and "Happiness 99 Excellent Mixed (State-owned Enterprise Dividend Selected FOF) 100-day Holding Period" ranked third and fourth, with net value growth rates of 8.68% and 8.06% respectively, benefiting from the strong performance of the convertible bond market and gold sector [7][8] Product Details - "Happiness 99 Excellent Mixed (Diverse Constant Profit) 180-day Holding Period" has investments covering fixed income, equity, and gold, with equity investments and public fund holdings accounting for 27.95% and 23.64% respectively at the end of Q3; the top ten assets include convertible bond ETFs, gold ETFs, index funds, and stocks [8] - The product currently has a leverage level of 101.97%, with plans to increase leverage to enhance returns if funding rates are reasonable [8] - "Happiness 99 Excellent Mixed (State-owned Enterprise Dividend Selected FOF) 100-day Holding Period" has a public fund holding ratio of 47.04% at the end of Q3, maintaining a high gold position; its top ten assets include convertible bond ETFs, gold ETFs, Hong Kong stock ETFs, and various index funds [8] - The product management anticipates an active equity market in Q4, balancing dividends and technology sectors, while maintaining a bullish long-term outlook on gold [9]

Core Viewpoint - Convertible bonds are gaining traction as a vital tool for investors to balance risk and return in a complex market environment, with the招商安本增利债券 (217008) standing out due to its unique strategic advantages [1] Group 1: Selection Criteria for Quality Convertible Bond Funds - Quality convertible bond funds should have clear and transparent strategies, including position management, rating preferences, and control of conversion premium rates [2] - A robust risk control system is essential, with strict mechanisms for downside protection to manage drawdown effectively [2] - The招商安本增利债券 (217008) maintains a convertible bond allocation range of 20%-40%, allowing for controlled drawdown [2] Group 2: Analysis and Comparison of Key Convertible Bond Funds - The招商安本增利债券 (217008) is noted for its "fixed income plus" strategy, making it a leader among similar funds despite not being a pure convertible bond fund [3][4] - The fund's investment characteristics include a focus on valuation safety and a strong emphasis on risk-adjusted returns [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Performance of 招商安本增利债券 (217008) - The fund employs a valuation-first principle to strictly control conversion premium rates, favoring reasonably valued bonds [5] - It utilizes a multi-strategy hedging approach, combining pure debt, interest rate bonds, convertible bonds, and equity assets for natural hedging [5] - The fund has demonstrated stable long-term performance, showing resilience during market downturns, with an annualized volatility significantly lower than pure convertible bond funds and equity funds [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations for Convertible Bond Funds - Investors should select convertible bond funds based on their risk tolerance, with the招商安本增利债券 (217008) being more suitable for conservative investors [6] - Long-term holding of convertible bond funds is recommended, with a suggested holding period of at least 1-2 years to realize value [6] Group 5: Summary of Convertible Bond Fund Investment Logic - The core logic of investing in convertible bond funds lies in their dual characteristics of downside protection and upside potential [7] - Skilled management can identify relatively high-certainty opportunities through professional valuation analysis and portfolio management [7] - In the current market environment, convertible bond funds offer a valuable configuration for investors, with products like招商安本增利债券 (217008) potentially providing a better investment experience and broader risk adaptability compared to pure convertible bond funds [7]