中航上大高温合金材料股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-003 投资者关系活动类别 特定对象调研 □媒体采访 □新闻发布会 □现场参观 □分析师会议 □业绩说明会 □路演活动 □其他 参与单位名称及人员姓 名 中金公司 刘中玉 中金公司 刘婧 中金公司 李舜尧 孚悦中诚资产 高飚 彼得明奇资产 林蔚先 君和立成投资 季刘昱 朱雀基金 许可 西南证券自营 李佳为 创金合信基金 李晗 中信期货资管部 魏巍 Elephas Global Fund WuXiaotian 上海富唐资产 胡爱军 上海天猊投资 曹国军 时间 2025 年 8 月 26 日（周二）上午 10:00—11:00 地点 在公司会议室通过进门财经平台以及电话会议采用线上远 程的方式召开 上市公司接待人员姓 名 总经济师：周军先生 副总经理、董事会秘书：徐志博先生 | | 财务总监：张建改女士 | | --- | --- | | | 公司就投资者在本次交流会中提出的问题进行了回复： | | | 1.上半年高温合金收入大幅增长且增速高于行业，其 | | | 背后是市场份额增加还是高温合金产品种类扩充导致 | | | 的？ | | | ...

GH3230高温合金线材是一种广泛应用于航空发动机、燃气轮机以及其他高温环境中的合金材料，特别适用于承受高温、高压环境下的要求。作为一种镍基 高温合金，它具有出色的耐热性能、抗腐蚀性和抗氧化性，能够在极端条件下保持良好的力学性能。 尽管GH3230合金被广泛认可为一种高温合金，业内对于其高温下的长期抗氧化性存在一些争议。部分研究表明，GH3230在连续高温作业下，其氧化层的稳 定性可能在某些环境中出现衰退，导致其氧化性能降低。这一问题特别在氧含量较高的环境中表现更为明显。因此，是否采用GH3230合金来承受极端高温 及氧化环境需要结合具体使用场景进行评估。 根据LME（伦敦金属交易所）和上海有色网的报价，GH3230合金的价格受多种因素影响，包括镍、钴、铬等原材料价格的波动。近期，镍的全球价格大幅 上涨，直接推高了GH3230合金的生产成本。2024年LME的镍现货价格大约为18,500美元/吨，而上海有色网的镍报价在17,800元/吨左右，价格波动给行业企 业带来了一定的成本压力。 GH3230高温合金线材在航空、能源等高温领域具有广泛的应用前景，凭借其优异的力学性能和高温稳定性，已成为许多关键部件的首选材 ...

投资建议：公司深耕微生态领域30 年，拥有覆盖全国的全渠道营销体系，具备成熟的商业转化能力； 同时拥有丰富的专家资源并长期进行科学循证研究。 此外，公司是国内极少数具备从高温合金材料研发到部件制备全流程研制能力的民营企业，先后在多型 号航空发动机、燃气轮机中应用，并具备批量生产工程能力。我们预计，公司2025~2027 年归母净利润 分别是3.01 亿元、4.31 亿元、5.79 亿元，当前股价对应2025~2027 年PE 分别是29x/20x/15x。我们考虑 到公司在微生态及高温合金领域的技术积淀及工程化能力，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、产品研发不及预期等。 事件：8 月22 日，公司发布2025 年半年报，1H25 实现营收6.3 亿元，YOY+24.4%；归母净利润1.2 亿 元，YOY +21.8%；扣非净利润1.1 亿元，YOY+29.3%。业绩表现符合市场预期。公司高温合金事业部 专注于"两机"高温合金产品，积极开拓市场。我们点评如下： 2Q25 业绩同比快速增长；1H25 产品结构影响毛利率。1）单季度：公司2Q25 实现营收2.9 亿元，YOY +36.8%；归母净利润 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the emergence of a trillion-level market driven by performance bottlenecks in the AI inference era, indicating that certain companies may become the biggest winners in the AI operational revolution [1] - It discusses the demand driven by gas turbines in the aviation engine and AI sectors, revealing a hidden champion in high-temperature alloys that has signed long-term agreements with multiple overseas clients, securing benefits from the global supply chain for aircraft engines [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the potential investment opportunities in companies providing AI server power supply solutions and those involved in high-temperature alloy demand driven by the AI and aerospace industries [1]. Group 1: AI Server Power Supply Solutions - The company offers a comprehensive range of products for AI servers, covering power supply units (PSU), inter-board connections (IBC), and point of load (POL) applications [1]. - Additionally, the company is developing various chips for robotics, electric drives, and sensors, indicating a broad technological focus [1]. Group 2: High-Temperature Alloy Demand - The company is strategically focusing on overseas markets, accelerating its entry into these regions [1]. - It has already signed long-term agreements with multiple overseas clients, showcasing its commitment to expanding its international footprint [1].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is a rising star in the domestic high-temperature alloy sector, driven by increasing demand from the aerospace and gas turbine industries [2][4]. - The company focuses on high-temperature alloys and alloy materials, with a diverse range of products including cast and deformed high-temperature alloys and alloy pipes [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue and net profit growth in 2024, with revenue of 1.391 billion yuan and net profit of 66 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 15.22% and 19.38% respectively [2][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in high-temperature alloys and alloy materials, with products that cover military and civilian applications [2][4]. - The company aims to become a world-class high-temperature alloy manufacturer, having established production lines for both cast and deformed high-temperature alloys [19][20]. Market Demand - The demand for high-temperature alloys is expected to rise due to the growth in the aerospace engine and gas turbine markets, with global civil aviation showing promising prospects [2][40]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the restructuring of supply chains by overseas aerospace manufacturers, which presents opportunities for domestic suppliers [52]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.759 billion yuan in 2025, 2.209 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.736 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 115 million yuan, 173 million yuan, and 247 million yuan [3][14]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.47 yuan, 0.70 yuan, and 1.00 yuan respectively [14]. International Expansion - The company is actively expanding its international customer base and has signed long-term agreements with several overseas clients, enhancing its global supply chain presence [2][30]. - The overseas revenue is expected to significantly contribute to the company's growth, with a projected increase of 128.69% in 2024 [30]. Product Segmentation - The company's revenue from high-temperature alloys and alloy pipes is expected to reach 959 million yuan and 346 million yuan respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 18.97% and 15.97% [24]. - The aerospace sector is the core application area for the company's products, with significant revenue contributions from aerospace, gas turbines, and automotive sectors [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 599 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 18.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 93 million yuan, down 51.4% year-over-year [1]. - The company is one of the few in China capable of mass-producing both deformed high-temperature alloys and cast high-temperature alloys, indicating a strong position in the market [1]. - The company is expanding its subsidiary, Tunan Intelligent Manufacturing, which is expected to enhance its production capabilities and extend its industrial chain [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 310 million yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 18.0% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 9.5%. The net profit for the same quarter was 50 million yuan, down 49.0% year-over-year but up 23.0% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 decreased by 10.4 percentage points to 27.9%, while the net margin fell by 10.6 percentage points to 15.5% [1]. - The company’s revenue from deformed high-temperature alloys was 280 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-over-year, while revenue from cast high-temperature alloys was 170 million yuan, down 39.6% year-over-year [2]. Cost and Expenses - The overall expense ratio remained stable, with a slight increase in the period expense ratio by 1.2 percentage points to 9.4% in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The company recorded an asset impairment loss of 11 million yuan, compared to no loss in the same period last year [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to generate net profits of 300 million yuan, 350 million yuan, and 420 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 40x for 2025, 34x for 2026, and 29x for 2027, reflecting a favorable valuation given the company's industry position and expansion plans [4].

Core Viewpoint - The successful development and acceptance of the "Xinghe-700" high-temperature alloy turbine disc marks a significant breakthrough for China in the aerospace industry, overcoming Western technological barriers and restrictions [1][3][36] Group 1: Product Development and Features - The "Xinghe-700" turbine disc can withstand temperatures of 700°C, which is a critical threshold in the aerospace sector, although it still lags behind Western products that can operate at 750°C [23][30] - The internal structure of the "Xinghe-700" is finely tuned with micron-level precision, enhancing material stability and fatigue resistance [26] - The disc features a preliminary "self-healing" capability, where intelligent elements within the material can migrate to repair micro-cracks, extending its lifespan by over 30% compared to imported products [28] - The manufacturing cost of the "Xinghe-700" is nearly half that of imported alternatives, achieved through comprehensive independent research and development [30] Group 2: Historical Context and Industry Impact - The development of the "Xinghe-700" represents nearly 70 years of progress in China's industrial capabilities, transitioning from imitation to innovation in high-temperature alloy production [34][36] - The successful creation of the "Xinghe-700" has led to advancements in the entire industry, with new nickel-based alloy blades achieving temperature records of 1150°C [32] - The project reflects China's resilience against technological blockades, showcasing the nation's ability to turn challenges into opportunities for growth and innovation in high-end manufacturing [38]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **chromium metal industry**, highlighting the surge in demand driven by **AI data centers**, **commercial aircraft**, and **European military needs**. The industry is expected to face a significant supply-demand gap, projected to reach **280,000 tons by 2028** due to limited capacity expansion caused by safety concerns [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gas Turbine Demand**: The demand for gas turbines is rapidly increasing, primarily benefiting from the construction of AI data centers. The delivery volume is expected to grow by approximately **70% year-on-year in the second half of 2026** [2][4]. - **Commercial Aircraft Engine Orders**: There has been a substantial increase in commercial aircraft engine orders, but the delivery cycle is lengthy. The global commercial aircraft fleet is projected to grow from **1,266 aircraft in 2024 to 2,800 by 2028**, with a maintenance ratio of **40%-50%** [4][24]. - **European Military Orders**: European military orders are increasing, with Rheinmetall's military orders rising from **€23 billion to €60-105 billion**. However, this demand has limited impact on domestic chromium metal consumption [5][27]. Production and Profitability Expectations - **Zhenhua Co. Production Forecast**: Zhenhua Co. anticipates a steady increase in production from **940,000 tons in 2024 to 1,060,000 tons by 2028**. The net profit is expected to rise from **¥770 million in 2025 to ¥1.3 billion in 2027**, with a valuation level of **7.8 times** [2][7]. - **Chromium Price Trends**: The price of chromium metal is closely linked to the price of chromium ore. Recent price declines are attributed to raw material price drops and seasonal factors, but the price of chromium oxide remains stable, indicating a tighter market for certain products [8][37]. Supply Chain Dynamics - **Global Supply Chain Expansion**: Overseas companies like Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Power are expanding gas turbine production capacity, while Chinese suppliers are entering the global supply chain. Exports from the chromium industry have increased by **64% year-on-year** in the first half of the year [2][6]. - **Complexity in Production**: The production process from chromium ore to chromium metal is complex, particularly in handling sodium chromate and sodium dichromate due to the hazardous nature of hexavalent chromium waste [10]. Market Position and Future Outlook - **Global Chromium Production**: Global chromium production capacity is approximately **1.07 million tons**, with China accounting for **520,000 tons**. Major producing countries include Kazakhstan, Turkey, and South Africa [11][35]. - **Zhenhua Co. Future Prospects**: Zhenhua Co. plans to expand its capacity significantly, potentially increasing production by **40%** through acquisitions and operational improvements. The company is expected to generate substantial free cash flow and improve return rates [36]. Additional Insights - **High-Temperature Alloy Applications**: Chromium metal is widely used in high-temperature alloys for gas turbines and aircraft engines, with a growing demand expected in the coming years [13][14]. - **Export Growth**: China's chromium powder exports have surged, with a notable increase from **1,300 tons in 2022 to 19,000 tons in the first quarter of 2025** [34]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the chromium metal industry, its dynamics, and future expectations.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The chromium salt industry is expected to undergo a significant restructuring due to surging demand from the overseas gas turbine and military sectors, which will drive up the demand for metallic chromium [9][10][11] - The global demand for chromium salts is projected to grow from 930,000 tons in 2024 to 1,310,000 tons by 2028, representing a substantial increase [10][12] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming chromium salt market cycle due to its competitive advantages in production capacity and technology [10][11][14] Market Data - As of July 30, 2025, the company's current stock price is 14.41 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 10,242.06 million yuan [6] - The company holds about 24% of the global chromium salt production capacity, indicating a strong market position [31][32] Demand Analysis - The demand for metallic chromium is expected to double from 23,000 tons in 2024 to 49,700 tons by 2028, driven by increased orders for gas turbines and commercial aircraft engines [11][13] - The military and aerospace sectors are also anticipated to see significant growth, with NATO countries committing to increase defense spending [11][12] Supply Analysis - The supply of chromium salts is constrained due to strict environmental regulations and the difficulty of expanding production capacity globally [10][30] - The report highlights that the chromium salt industry is facing a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 250,000 tons by 2028 [10][12] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 45.70 billion yuan, 53.88 billion yuan, and 61.81 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.66 billion yuan, 10.05 billion yuan, and 13.34 billion yuan [14][16]