国际金价一度突破3900美元，逐渐接近4000美元关口。今年以来，国际金价累计上涨超过47%，今年的金价表现继续领跑全球大部分主流投资品种。 最近一轮金价上涨行情，从今年8月下旬开始启动，从3400美元大幅攀升至近期高位3927美元，一个月左右的时间金价累计上涨超过15%。这一轮金价上涨 的逻辑，提前炒作美联储降息的预期，作为抵御通胀的硬通货，金价也是明显受益于美联储降息周期下的通胀回升预期。 截至今年10月1日，今年以来国际金价累计涨幅达到了47%，全球大部分投资品种都未能够跑赢金价的涨幅，包括美股、A股与港股等，只有极少数的市场 指数可以追得上金价的年内涨幅，例如创业板指、北证50、科创50等。 再从全球黄金储备量来看，最高是美国，紧随其后的是德国、意大利、法国等。按照我国黄金储备量的增长速度，即将步入全球黄金储备量的前五名位置， 从长远的角度来看，有望进入全球前三的位置。 一边是各国黄金储备量的持续增加，另一边是全球资金配置美元的意愿在下降，美元吸引力在持续降低，多项因素叠加在一起，进一步突出了黄金的战略投 资价值。 这一轮黄金牛市还可以走多远？在各项数据比较有利的前提上，黄金不会马上出现深度调整的走势 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Wuliangye Yibin with a target price of RMB 172.00, down from a previous target of RMB 194.00 [2][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the core assets of Wuliangye remain strong despite the industry adjustment period, with a focus on enhancing marketing execution and implementing three major reforms: controlling volume and price, brand upgrading, and channel reconstruction [3][11]. - The company has experienced five consecutive years of double-digit revenue growth, with a projected revenue of RMB 93.8 billion for 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 12.2% from 2019 to 2024 [4][12]. - The gross profit margin has improved for six consecutive years, reaching 87.0% for Wuliangye products, indicating a strong product structure optimization [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is expected to generate revenue of RMB 93.8 billion and net profit of RMB 33.5 billion, with diluted EPS projected at RMB 8.6 [5][14]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 36.94 billion and a net profit of RMB 14.86 billion for Q1 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 6.1% and 5.8%, respectively [4][12]. Market Context - The Chinese stock market is experiencing an uptrend, with high dividend core assets being favored. The SSE/Hang Seng Index has performed well, supported by government policies and foreign capital inflows [3][10]. - The Baijiu industry is facing intensified differentiation, with Wuliangye expected to solidify its leading position during the current industry adjustment [11][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation of 20x 2025e PE for Wuliangye, which is lower than the previous valuation of 22x for 2024, reflecting adjustments in growth expectations [5][14]. - The company's dividend payout ratio is set to increase from 60% in FY23 to 70% in FY24, which is significantly higher than the A-share average [5][14].