国海证券认为，2024年以旧换新政策催化下乘用车销量表现超预期，2025年以旧换新政策延续，对汽车 消费向上形成支撑，看好汽车行业投资机会。建议关注：1)自主崛起新阶段，自主崛起大周期维度进入 高端化发展的战略进攻时刻，具有30万元以上优质供给的车企有望明显受益；2)高阶智驾"平价化"有望 大幅提升高阶智驾渗透率，领先整车和相关零部件受益；3)出口环境较为复杂，看好自身经营周期向上 的优质零部件公司；4)商用车方面，重卡内需三年低位运行，2025年有望恢复；客车领域内需出口有望 继续向上。 方正证券认为，1)强势车企新品周期密集开启，细分市场格局有望加速重构。2)"反内卷"政策引导与行 业自律双轮驱动下，行业经营环境持续优化。7月汽车市场整体折扣稳定在25%，政策规范效果初步显 现。行业自律强化叠加政策引导，汽车产业竞争或将从价格竞争向价值竞争升级，经营环境持续优化。 3)7月为传统汽车消费淡季，随着消费旺季临近，叠加头部车企密集新品投放，行业需求有望触底回 升，推动板块进入景气上行周期。目前乘用车板块动态PE处于近5年39%分位，估值仍具修复空间，后 续有望随旺季销量回暖同步扩张。 据乘联分会消息，8月1— ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The heavy truck segment experienced a significant year-on-year sales increase of approximately 42% in July 2025, indicating a robust demand recovery [12][16] - The introduction of the "old-for-new" policy is expected to support automotive consumption, leading to a positive outlook for the automotive sector [16] - The report highlights the launch of new electric vehicles, including the Li Auto i8 and NIO L90, which are anticipated to enhance market competition [13][14] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index from July 28 to August 1, 2025, with a weekly decline of 2.4% [5][17] - Heavy truck sales in July 2025 reached approximately 83,000 units, marking a 42% increase year-on-year [12] Company Performance - Li Auto's i8 electric SUV was launched at prices ranging from 321,800 to 369,800 CNY, featuring advanced technology and competitive specifications [13] - NIO's L90 flagship SUV was introduced with a price range of 265,800 to 299,800 CNY, showcasing high-performance capabilities [14] - Several companies reported their July sales figures, with notable performances from Li Auto, Xiaopeng Motors, and BYD, indicating strong market activity [15] Market Outlook - The continuation of the "old-for-new" policy is expected to bolster passenger vehicle sales, with a focus on high-quality domestic brands benefiting from this trend [16] - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Li Auto, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors, as they are positioned to capitalize on the evolving market dynamics [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy, which is anticipated to support consumer demand and sales growth in 2025 [16] - The report highlights a new phase of domestic brands entering a strategic offensive towards high-end development, with companies offering quality products priced above 300,000 yuan likely to benefit significantly [16] - The report emphasizes the potential for high-level intelligent driving technologies to become more affordable, which could increase their penetration rates [16] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 0.4% from July 7 to July 11, 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.1% [17] - In June 2025, the wholesale volume of automobiles reached 2.904 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [30] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, SAIC Group, BYD, Great Wall Motors for high-end supply [16] - XPeng Motors, Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Coboda for intelligent driving technologies [16] - Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Beite Technology for robotics production [16] - Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., and Yinlun Co. for quality auto parts [16] - Foton Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck for commercial vehicles [16] Earnings Forecasts - Key companies and their projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025E, and 2026E include: - Yinlun Co.: 0.92, 1.28, 1.59 [49] - Baolong Technology: 1.44, 2.56, 3.22 [49] - BYD: 13.84, 18.15, 22.13 [49] - Li Auto: 4.16, 5.43, 8.33 [49]