Export Changes - Since Trump's administration, China's export structure has adjusted, with a decrease in the share of exports to the U.S. and an increase to ASEAN and Africa, while exports to the EU have rebounded after two years of decline[11] - In the first five months of 2025, China's exports to the U.S. accounted for approximately 11.9%, down 2.7 percentage points from 2024, while exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU increased to 17.8%, 5.6%, and 14.7% respectively[11] - By the end of 2024, China's export share of global exports was about 15.0%, rising to approximately 15.4% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in global market share[11] High-Frequency Tracking - Monitoring port cargo throughput can effectively reflect changes in China's export volume, showing a correlation with historical export trends[21] - South Korea's export growth is a key indicator of global demand, with a 5.4% increase recorded in early June 2025, suggesting a potential recovery in global demand[43] - Tracking the number of container ships from China to the U.S. provides insights into direct export trends, with a notable recovery in June but still weaker than March levels[43] Future Export Outlook - In an optimistic scenario, if the fentanyl tariffs are lifted and the exemption for reciprocal tariffs continues until the end of the year, the annual export growth rate could reach approximately 3.4%[57] - Conversely, under a baseline scenario, the annual export growth rate is expected to be around 2.1%, with risks of a decline in Q4 due to high base effects[57] - The end of the 90-day exemption period for tariffs on July 9, 2025, poses uncertainties for future export demand, as the U.S. may maintain its current tariff framework[54]

作 者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 联 系 人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产分化，建筑业开工较弱，地产成交大幅提升。 【 工业生产】工业生产分化。 本周，下游开工继续回暖，汽车半钢胎开工率大幅回升，同比上上行至 3%；涤纶长丝开工延续改善，同比1.1%。对比之下，中上游开工仍有小幅回落，高炉开工同比-0.8pct至 2%，PTA开工同比-3.5%。 【建筑业开工】基建开工较弱。 本周，沥青开工率再度回落，同比-5.8pct至-2.8%。全国粉磨开工率、水 泥出货率也低于去年同期，同比分别-8.5pct至-10.3%、-6pct至-11.5%。 【下游需求】全国新房成交大幅提升，观影消费延续高位。 本周，全国新房成交同比升至50.8%；不同能 级城市均表现较好，一线、二线、三线城市成同比分别升至64.9%、41.7%、55.6%。电影消费延续高位， 观影人次、票房收入同比分别132.8%、149.6%。但人流出行强度持续回落，全国迁徙规模指数同 比-7.6pct至6%。 【物价】农产品价格普遍回落，工业品价格延续下滑。 本周，农产品方面，蔬菜、猪肉、鸡蛋、水果价 格环比分别-2.1%、-0. ...