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银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251105
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 10:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production remains high. It is expected that the pace of capacity reduction in the short term will be relatively gradual. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per catty, and the main contract in December has already given a certain premium, the expected upside space is relatively limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: JD01 closed at 3385, up 48 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3509, up 17; JD09 closed at 3867, up 8. The 01 - 05 spread was -124, up 31; the 05 - 09 spread was -358, up 9; the 09 - 01 spread was 482, down 40 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, up 0.02; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, down 0.01. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, up 0.01; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.24, unchanged. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.71, unchanged; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.32, up 0.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.87 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous trading day. Most of the national mainstream prices remained stable, with prices in various regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong remaining stable, and only some local prices showing minor fluctuations [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.99 yuan per catty, down 0.01 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The prices of culled chickens in different regions showed some fluctuations, with prices in Handan and Shijiazhuang rising, and prices in Jinan and Dezhou falling [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, and an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous expectation. Based on previous replenishment data, the estimated inventory of laying hens in production from November 2025 to February 2026 is approximately 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In October, the monthly hatchling volume of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [5]. - **Culled Chicken Slaughter Volume and Age**: In the week of October 31, the national slaughter volume of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 20.53 million, an increase of 11% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 494 days, a decrease of 5 days from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of October 31, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7658 tons, an increase of 2.1% compared to the previous week [5]. - **Profit Situation**: As of October 31, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.2 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.02 yuan per catty from the previous week. On October 31, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 4.82 yuan per bird, an increase of 1.42 yuan per catty from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the week of October 31, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, unchanged from the previous week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, also unchanged from the previous week [6]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].