Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $4,385.7 per ounce, is attributed to a combination of factors including expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties, and a weakening dollar, which collectively enhance gold's long-term investment appeal [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have recently hit a record high, with a year-to-date increase of 59.11% [1]. - The gold ETF (159934) has seen a net inflow of 180 million yuan over the past 10 trading days, reflecting strong investor interest [1]. - The current price movement is seen as a systemic change in macro pricing frameworks, driven by expectations of monetary easing and central bank gold purchases [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Indicators - The U.S. November CPI has decreased to approximately 2.7% year-on-year, while the employment rate has risen to 4.6%, indicating a continued decline in inflation [1]. - Market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, contributing to a weaker dollar index [1]. - The combination of these macroeconomic indicators supports the notion that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its easing cycle [1]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - The demand for gold is bolstered by geopolitical risks and a trend of central banks increasing their gold reserves [1]. - The gold ETF (159934) closely tracks SGE gold 9999, with its latest scale growing by 35.56 billion yuan and a total net inflow of 12.754 billion yuan for the year [1].

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold continues to rise, with London gold prices breaking through $4,350 per ounce, indicating a renewed interest in gold investments as market conditions improve [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On December 15, spot gold prices increased, with a peak of $4,350 per ounce recorded [1] - The upward trend in gold prices is accompanied by a growing willingness among investors to allocate funds to gold [1] Group 2: Gold ETF Growth - As of December 12, five gold ETFs have surpassed a management scale of 10 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth in the sector [1] - Leading gold ETF products have experienced rapid expansion throughout the year [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - The market is increasingly recognizing the medium to long-term investment value of gold due to expectations of interest rate cuts and a marginal improvement in liquidity conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent rise in gold prices and the significant expansion of gold ETFs, indicating a renewed interest in gold as a long-term investment amid changing monetary policies and liquidity conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On December 15, spot gold prices rose, with London gold prices briefly surpassing $4,350 per ounce [1]. - The overall trend for international gold prices has been a steady increase, supported by safe-haven and allocation demand, with last week's London spot gold closing at $4,299 per ounce, a 2.4% increase week-on-week [3]. Group 2: Gold ETF Expansion - The expansion of gold ETFs has been notable, with five gold ETFs surpassing a management scale of 10 billion yuan as of December 12 [2][3]. - Major products like Huaan Gold ETF and Bosera Gold ETF have shown significant growth, with Huaan's scale increasing from 28.676 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 90.629 billion yuan by December 12 [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Monetary Policy - There is a clear trend of funds concentrating on core gold indices, with the total management scale of ETFs linked to the SGE Gold 9999 index reaching 214.496 billion yuan, including 147.587 billion yuan added this year [4]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to restart balance sheet expansion is expected to lead to a more accommodative liquidity environment, which could benefit gold prices [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market anticipates that the Fed's dovish stance may lead to more aggressive rate cuts, further supporting gold prices in the long term [5]. - However, concerns about inflation and limited rate cuts indicated by the Fed's dot plot may create volatility in gold prices, suggesting a potential for price corrections driven by news and technical factors [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term cautious long [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term cautious long [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term cautious short (steel and iron ore), short - term range - bound for ferroalloys [6][7][8] - **Energy Chemicals**: Varying trends, mostly short - term follow - up with crude oil and range - bound [9][10][11][12][13][14] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term limited upside for copper, short - term fluctuations for tin, and attention to aluminum's de - stocking [15][16] - **Agricultural Products**: Different trends for various sub - sectors, such as potential increase in domestic rapeseed buying interest, and complex trends for others [17][18][19] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Perspective**: Overseas, the US - UK limited trade agreement and a significant drop in US initial jobless claims led to a short - term sharp rebound in the US dollar and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, progress in China - US trade negotiations, central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, and policy support for consumption are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Allocation**: Short - term, equity indices may rebound with caution, treasury bonds may oscillate at high levels with caution, and different commodity sectors have different trends, generally with a cautious approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro** - Overseas: Trump announced a limited US - UK trade agreement, and the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, causing the US dollar to rebound and global risk appetite to rise [3]. - Domestic: China - US high - level talks in Switzerland showed progress, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rate by 10BP, and the Ministry of Commerce planned to boost consumption, which is expected to increase domestic risk appetite [3]. **Equity Index** - Driven by sectors like military, auto services, and industrial equipment, the domestic stock market continued to rise. Favorable policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long is recommended [4]. **Precious Metals** - The precious metals market declined on Thursday. The weakening of gold's safe - haven property due to the easing of trade tensions and the unclear US economic outlook. However, gold has long - term allocation value, and long - term positions can be built using a ratio spread structure if it corrects [4][5]. **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The steel market declined on Thursday. As May is the off - season, demand has decreased, and supply may also decline. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore declined on Thursday. Steel demand is weakening, and although the current iron ore supply is low, it is expected to increase in the second quarter. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are in a range - bound pattern, and a short - term range - bound view is recommended [7][8]. **Energy Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The US - UK trade agreement increased market confidence, leading to an increase in oil prices [9]. - **Asphalt**: The price followed crude oil and then rebounded. Inventory removal has stagnated, and it will continue to follow crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: It rebounded, and it will maintain a tight balance and an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: It will continue to reduce inventory in May, but there is a risk of a decline in downstream profits. It may oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is in a weak oscillation, and the inventory removal time will be postponed [10]. - **Short Fiber**: The downstream processing profit is decreasing, and it will oscillate at a high level following crude oil [11]. - **Methanol**: The price is oscillating downward, and the medium - term price may be under pressure [11][12]. - **PP**: The market price declined slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the medium - term may face demand negative feedback [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is weakly adjusted. The downstream demand is weak, and the medium - term price is under pressure [14]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment, but high tariffs will limit the upside. The demand is about to enter the off - season [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory has decreased recently, but there has been cumulative inventory since May. The short - term may still fluctuate, and long positions should be gradually closed [16]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The short - term price will oscillate [16]. **Agricultural Products** - **US Soybeans**: About 15% of the US soybean planting area is affected by drought, and Canadian rapeseed may face adverse weather [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market's concern about the pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals has decreased. The spot basis price is high, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is increasing [17][18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil market had a technical adjustment. The domestic oil market has a weak fundamental situation, and the palm oil price may continue to decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The piglet replenishment enthusiasm is average, and there may be pressure on the market in July. The price of LH09 may be more volatile [18]. - **Corn**: The short - term demand for deep - processing has decreased seasonally, and the futures price may decline for correction. The price increase is met with cautious downstream acceptance [19].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with recent declines observed in both spot and futures markets, indicating volatility in the gold market [1][2][4]. Price Movements - As of May 7, London gold spot price fell by 1.5% to 3379.640, while COMEX gold futures dropped nearly 0.9% to 3392.5 [2]. - Other precious metals also saw declines, with London silver down 1.97% and COMEX silver down 0.89% [2]. Market Trends - The gold market has shown a pattern of reversals, with prices dropping below $3200 during the recent holiday period, followed by a rebound as the holiday ended [2]. - In the first four months of 2025, gold prices increased by 29.4%, surpassing expectations, driven by significant inflows into ETFs [4]. Risk Warnings - Several commercial banks, including China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued warnings regarding the risks associated with gold price fluctuations [5]. - There are compliance risks associated with using credit cards or loans for gold investments, which could lead to penalties or credit score impacts if misused [5].