中辉有色观点 | F | | | --- | --- | | T | 1991 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美联储降息讨论反复，俄乌问题再抢眼球，日本推出财政大刺激，黄金有支撑。建 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 议黄金长线交易为主，避免陷入情绪交易。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持 | | ★ | | 续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银跟随黄金、及其他有色品种波动，特朗普将推出 AI 创世纪计划，白银弹性大更 | | 白银 | 长线持有 | 大。长期来看白银基本面来看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币 | | ★ | | 投放提供流动性。关注 11500 附近支撑。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储鸽派官员发声，美联储 12 月降息概率回升，市场情绪缓和，国内 LPR 按兵不 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 动，铜精矿紧张长单 TC 谈判在即，但全球铜显现库存高位，铜隔夜尾盘拉升，建议 | | ★ | | 背靠 8 万 5 关口回调逢低试多，中长期，铜依旧看多。 | | | | 锌供需双弱， ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 流动性真空，市场放大利空情绪，短期美国就业仍然是最大困扰，降息概率下降。 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 黄金短期大驱动较少，长线交易为主，避免陷入情绪交易。黄金中长期地缘秩序重 | | ★ | | 塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 短期市场数据空白，市场交易没有锚点，白银跟对下跌。长期来看白银基本面来看 | | 白银 | 长线持有 | 全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币投放提供流动性。关注 11500 | | ★ | | 附近支撑。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储官员放鹰，美元流动性紧张，市场静待非农数据，海外铜库存累库，铜短期 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 承压调整测试 8 万 5 关口支撑，建议等待止跌企稳背靠均线低多，中长期，铜精矿 | | ★ | | 紧张和绿色铜需求爆发，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 宏观和板块情绪转冷，消费淡季需求疲软，锌承压偏弱运行，中长期看，锌供增需 | | | 反弹承压 | | | ★ | | 减，维持反 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美联储联储鹰派官员集体表态 12 月降息概率大减，不过沃勒支持降息，同时流动性 | | | 长线持有 | 危机。黄金价格回落后震荡，短期大驱动较少，长线交易为主。黄金中长期地缘秩 | | ★ | | 序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期市场数据空白，市场交易没有锚点，白银下跌后震荡。长期来看白银基本面来 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币投放提供流动性。关注 11500 | | | | 附近支撑。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储官员放鹰，国内宏观数据不佳，亚太战争风险剧增，市场情绪谨慎，铜承压 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 回落，建议多空均降低仓位，警惕黑天鹅风险，中长期，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求 | | ★ | | 爆发，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 宏观和板块情绪转冷，消费淡季需求疲软，锌承压偏弱运行，中长期看，锌供增需 | | | 反弹承压 | | | ★ ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term long position [1] - Silver: Long - term long position [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, long - term sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Relatively strong [1] - Aluminum: Rise and then fall [1] - Nickel: Relatively weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level operation [1] Core Views - Gold has support due to eliminated US government shutdown risk and liquidity crisis, but short - term upside is limited. Long - term strategic allocation value remains due to geopolitical order reshaping and central bank buying [1][2]. - Silver's long - term long position is recommended as the London market squeeze risk is removed, and global policy stimulates demand with a continuous supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is expected to be bullish in the long - term due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand. In the short - term, it is recommended to go long on dips near the moving average [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure as short - term supply is tight while demand weakens in the off - season, and long - term supply is expected to increase while demand decreases [1][9]. - Lead's price is under pressure in the short - term as production recovers and imports arrive, but consumption is dragged down by mid - large lead battery enterprise production cuts [1]. - Tin's price may rise and then fall in the short - term as overseas tin mine复产 is slow and downstream traditional electronic consumption demand is poor [1]. - Aluminum's price is likely to rise and then fall as overseas production cuts occur, but domestic production remains high and consumption is transitioning from peak to off - season [1][13]. - Nickel's price is relatively weak as overseas inventory is at a high level, domestic inventory accumulates, and downstream stainless steel consumption is weak [1][17]. - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in a range in November as the supply is in a tight balance, and downstream demand provides some support [1]. - Polysilicon is cautiously bearish as production cuts are in line with expectations, and downstream price cuts cause negative feedback [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to remain at a high level as the supply - demand situation improves, and inventory has been decreasing for 12 weeks [1][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Liquidity crisis is resolved, but data is missing, providing support for precious metals. Short - term upward movement is limited due to lack of new drivers [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US government shutdown is approaching an end; Japan's monetary policy may shift; UK employment data is poor, and rate cuts are expected. China's central bank has been increasing gold reserves. Long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market [2][3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term value - based positions should be held. Short - term, domestic gold has support at 920, and silver has strong support at 11400 [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates at a high level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: In Q3 2025, global major copper mine enterprises' production decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and this may continue in Q4. Refined copper supply is shrinking. Consumption is in the off - season, and downstream开工 is weak. Copper is included in the US critical minerals list [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With a weakening US dollar, copper is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to go long on dips near the moving average and hold long - term strategic positions. Industrial hedging should use options for protection [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc's rebound is under pressure [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is tightening in the short - term, and processing fees are falling. Consumption is in the off - season, and both domestic and overseas inventories are increasing [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long positions should be closed at high prices. In the long - term, sell on rallies as supply is expected to increase and demand to decrease [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price rises and then falls, and alumina is relatively weak [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminum production is decreasing, and domestic consumption is transitioning from peak to off - season. Alumina market is in an oversupply situation in the short - term [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, take profits on long positions in Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to downstream processing enterprise开工 changes [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price continues to fall, and stainless steel is weak [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Global nickel inventory is accumulating, and stainless steel terminal demand is weakening. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the long - term [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opens high and closes low with a slight reduction in positions [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand situation remains tight, and inventory has been decreasing for 12 weeks. New production lines contribute to output growth, and terminal demand is strong [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions near the previous high [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report doesn't provide a unified industry - wide investment rating but gives individual ratings for each metal variety: - Long - term long positions are recommended for gold, silver, and copper [1]. - Rebound - selling short is suggested for zinc [1]. - A bearish view is taken on lead, tin, and nickel, with lead under pressure, tin and nickel having a high - level bearish trend [1]. - Aluminium is expected to rise and then fall [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in a range, and polycrystalline silicon recommends buying on dips [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to have a high - level adjustment [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various factors such as employment data, government shutdowns, inflation data, and geopolitical situations in the United States, which have an impact on the prices of different metals. It provides investment strategies for each metal based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market trends [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Variety Gold and Silver - **Core View**: Long - term long positions are recommended. Gold has support due to factors like the US government shutdown, the debate on Trump's tariff legality, and geopolitical tensions. Silver follows related markets and has long - term demand supported by global policies [1][3]. - **Main Logic**: The US employment market is weakening, with a significant increase in corporate lay - offs in October. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff legality may lead to a large - scale tax refund. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the restructuring of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider entering the market for the medium and long - term. The support levels are 900 for domestic gold and 11,200 for silver. Hold long - term value - allocation positions [4]. Copper - **Core View**: Long - term holding is recommended, and short - term light - position buying on dips is suggested [1][7]. - **Main Logic**: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mining enterprises decreased year - on - year, and this trend is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. The US employment data is weakening, the government shutdown is ongoing, inflation data is lacking, and the Fed's hawkish stance has returned [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips with a light position in the short - term. Hold long - term strategic positions. For industrial hedging, add option protection, reduce positions, and strictly control risks. Short - term attention should be paid to the range of 84,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,500 - 11,000 US dollars/ton for London copper [7]. Zinc - **Core View**: Rebound - selling short is recommended in the medium and long - term, and short - term range - bound trading is expected [1][10]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have declined due to smelters' winter stockpiling. The market expects domestic smelters to reduce production in November due to raw material shortages. Consumption is entering the off - season, and the demand is weakening [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions when the price rebounds. In the medium and long - term, maintain the view of selling short on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the range of 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 3,000 - 3,100 US dollars/ton for London zinc [10]. Aluminium - **Core View**: Aluminium is expected to rise and then fall in the short - term [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminium production has decreased, while China's production capacity remains high. The inventory reduction of aluminium ingots in major consumption areas has slowed down, and consumption is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions when the price of Shanghai aluminium rebounds in the short - term. Pay attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Core View**: Nickel is expected to rebound and then fall [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas nickel inventories have reached a high level, and domestic refined nickel inventories have been accumulating. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has weakened [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is 119,000 - 121,000 yuan/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Main Logic**: The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally. The total inventory has been decreasing for 11 consecutive weeks, and the destocking amplitude has expanded. Although production is increasing, terminal demand remains strong [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of 79,800 - 82,000 yuan/ton [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term bullish [1] - Silver: Long - term bullish [1] - Copper: High - level adjustment in the short - term, long - term bullish [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, short - term profit - taking for long positions, long - term short - selling on rebounds [1] - Lead: Rise and then fall [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait for stabilization [1] Core Views - The shutdown of the US government has led to liquidity depletion, causing significant drops in capital markets including the precious metals market. Gold and silver are expected to stop falling in the short - term and are long - term bullish due to factors like global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. However, sentiment fluctuation risks need to be guarded against [2][3]. - Copper is under high - level adjustment in the short - term due to factors such as the strengthening US dollar and the approaching consumption off - season. But in the long - term, it remains bullish because of tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand [1][6]. - Zinc is facing a situation where supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. In the short - term, long positions should take profits at high levels, and in the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure in the short - term as the terminal consumption is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, with overseas supply shrinking and domestic supply remaining high [1][13]. - Nickel prices are weak as overseas and domestic inventories are rising, and the terminal consumption of downstream stainless steel is fading [1][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are under high - level adjustment. Although there are short - term shocks from复产 news, the fundamentals are improving with continuous de - stocking. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize [1][20]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver Market Review - The shutdown of the US government and other events have led to liquidity depletion, causing significant drops in the precious metals market [2]. Basic Logic - The US government shutdown may set a new record, and the market is facing liquidity depletion. There are also internal differences within the Fed regarding the December interest rate cut. In the long - term, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, both gold and silver have stopped falling. For the medium - and long - term, consider entering the market after stabilization. The support levels are 900 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions can be held [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper opened lower overnight and is under high - level adjustment [6]. Industry Logic - In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased. The consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and the market is worried about the economy as the manufacturing PMIs in China and the US have weakened in October [6]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the US government shutdown, the strengthening US dollar is suppressing commodities. Copper opened lower overnight and tested the 85000 support level. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels near the lower moving averages. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. For industrial hedging, options protection can be added, positions should be reduced, and strict risk control should be implemented. In the long - term, copper is still bullish [7]. Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc rebounded but faced pressure [9]. Industry Logic - The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined due to smelters' winter stockpiling. The profit of refined zinc enterprises has slightly increased. The consumption is entering the off - season, and the domestic zinc ingot export window has opened [9]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the decline in macro and sector sentiment, Shanghai zinc tested the 22800 level and then fell back. Short - term long positions should take profits at high levels. In the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas expectation of a year - end interest rate cut by the Fed has weakened. The domestic production capacity is high, and the terminal consumption is fading. For alumina, overseas shipments have decreased due to the rainy season in Guinea, and the domestic industry is facing profit contraction [13]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take profits at high levels for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, and pay attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate. The main operating range is [21000 - 21700] [14]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have slightly stabilized, and stainless steel shows a relatively weak trend [16]. Industry Logic - The overseas expectation of a year - end interest rate cut by the Fed has weakened. Overseas and domestic nickel inventories are increasing, and the terminal consumption of stainless steel is approaching the end of the peak season [17]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to the downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 122000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed low, with a reduction of over 70,000 lots in a day and a decline of over 4% [19]. Industry Logic - The market is spreading news of复产, which may impact the market in the short - term. However, the fundamentals are improving with continuous de - stocking for 11 weeks, and the terminal demand remains strong [20]. Strategy Recommendation - It is advisable to wait and see and wait for the market to stabilize within the range of [76800 - 78800] [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Long - term strategic value of gold remains unchanged due to global currency easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction; short - term geopolitical issues cause small price increases [3] - Long - term positive outlook for copper due to strategic value, but short - term high - level risks are significant [6][7] - Zinc is under pressure in the short - term with sufficient macro - level positive factors realized, and in the long - term, supply increases while demand decreases [10][11] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain relatively strong in the short - term, supported by terminal consumption in the peak season [2] - Nickel prices are under pressure due to sufficient domestic supply and inventory accumulation, with only some support from the peak consumption season of nickel sulfate [2] - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show no obvious contradictions, and it can be treated with a long - position approach in the short - term due to optimistic market sentiment [2] - For polysilicon, positive policies boost market sentiment, and long - positions can be held [2] - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have improved in the short - term, with obvious inventory reduction and strong terminal demand, so long - positions can be held [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - **Market Situation**: After the G2 meeting, short - term geopolitical issues lead to a small increase in gold prices. Trump's support rate has declined, geopolitical issues are recurring, and the Senate has passed a resolution to terminate Trump's tariff policy [3] - **Investment Strategy**: Long - term strategic value is high, and long - positions can be held. In the short - term, entry can be considered when prices stop falling, with a support level of 910 for domestic gold [3][4] Silver - **Market Situation**: The short - term squeeze event has ended, and silver follows the trend of gold. In the long - term, global policy stimulates demand, and there is a continuous supply - demand gap [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Long - positions can be held for the long - term, with a strong support level at 11200 [2] Copper - **Market Situation**: High - level retracement after the G2 meeting. Trump has revoked emission restrictions on copper smelters, and domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to decline. High prices suppress demand [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term: stop profit on long - positions and wait for prices to stabilize. Long - term: strategic long - positions can be held. Short - term, pay attention to the range of 84500 - 88500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10500 - 11200 dollars/ton for London copper [7] Zinc - **Market Situation**: Pressure on prices due to sufficient supply of zinc concentrates and weak demand in the peak season. The domestic zinc ingot export window is open, and overseas soft - squeeze risks persist [10] - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, it is under pressure; in the long - term, it is a short - position allocation. Pay attention to the range of 22000 - 22500 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 2950 - 3050 dollars/ton for London zinc [11] Aluminum - **Market Situation**: High - level consolidation, with alumina showing a slight stabilization trend. Overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to tighten, and domestic consumption in the peak season provides support [12][14] - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, take profit on long - positions when prices are high. Pay attention to the operating range of 21000 - 21800 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [15] Nickel - **Market Situation**: Rebound is restricted due to inventory accumulation. Overseas supply disturbances are weakening, and domestic pure nickel inventory is increasing. Stainless steel inventory removal pressure is high [16][18] - **Investment Strategy**: Sell on rebounds. Pay attention to the operating range of 120000 - 123000 yuan/ton for nickel [19] Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: Fundamentals show no obvious contradictions. Northern production starts to slow down, and southern production is affected by the dry season. Downstream demand is weak, but market sentiment is optimistic in the short - term [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - positions in the short - term, with a range of 9100 - 9300 [2] Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: Positive policies boost market sentiment, with a contrast between strong expectations and weak reality [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Hold long - positions [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: Fundamentals have improved in the short - term, with continuous inventory reduction and strong terminal demand. Supply is still growing, but there are some production restrictions in Sichuan [20][22] - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - positions in the range of 82800 - 85500 [23]

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] - Core views on various metals: Gold is expected to experience a pullback adjustment in the short - term but maintains long - term strategic value; silver is recommended for long - term buying; copper is recommended for long - term holding; zinc is expected to rebound with limited upside and is a short - term bearish option; lead's price rebound is under pressure; tin's price is short - term strong; aluminum's price is short - term strong; nickel's price is under pressure and weak; industrial silicon is expected to rebound; polysilicon is recommended for long - term holding; and lithium carbonate is recommended for long - term holding [2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Review - G2 relations have eased, but Powell's statement was unexpected. Short - term focus is on when gold and silver will stop falling [3] Basic Logic - Powell cooled the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. The Fed's "dovish" action was accompanied by a "hawkish" guidance. The probability of a December rate cut dropped significantly [4] - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates, and the market expects more cuts [4] - Attention is on the G2 leaders' meeting [4] - In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [4] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term focus on when gold and silver will stop falling. For domestic gold, pay attention to the 900 support level. Silver has strong support at 11000. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [5] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Both Shanghai and London copper prices reached record highs [8] Industry Logic - Trump revoked strict emission restrictions on copper smelters and provided a two - year compliance exemption. SMM expects a decline in electrolytic copper production in October and a contraction in the fourth quarter [8] - High copper prices have curbed demand, and downstream buyers are hesitant. The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises decreased [8] Strategy Recommendation - Wait and see if copper can break through the 90,000 mark. Short - term copper long positions should take profit, and avoid chasing high prices. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging should use options for protection [9] Group 4: Zinc Market Review - Zinc continued to rebound but was under pressure at the 22,500 level [11] Industry Logic - Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant. The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined, and the profit loss of refined zinc enterprises has slightly expanded [11] - The "Silver October" peak season was lackluster, and demand was weak. The domestic zinc ingot export window opened, and domestic inventories increased slightly [11] Strategy Recommendation - Zinc's upside is limited after the short - term macro - policy stimulus fades. In the long run, zinc supply will increase while demand decreases. It is a bearish option in the sector [12] Group 5: Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices should be chased with caution, and alumina showed a slight stabilization trend [14] Industry Logic - Overseas, the Fed continued to cut interest rates in October. In China, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum reached 44.05 million tons in early October, and inventories increased slightly [15] - The domestic alumina industry's profit has shrunk significantly, and some high - cost enterprises are facing losses. The market is in an oversupply situation in the short term [15] Strategy Recommendation - Shanghai aluminum should take profit on short - term long positions. Pay attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises [16] Group 6: Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices fell under pressure, and stainless steel's rebound was under pressure [18] Industry Logic - Overseas, the Fed continued to cut interest rates in October. The supply of nickel ore from Indonesia has become more stable, and domestic pure nickel inventories have continued to accumulate [19] - The performance of the stainless steel terminal consumption peak season needs further observation. The expected production increase of stainless steel will put pressure on inventory reduction [19] Strategy Recommendation - Nickel and stainless steel should be put on hold for now. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [20] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2601 rose and then fell, with a slight increase in positions throughout the day [22] Industry Logic - The fundamentals have improved significantly. Total inventory has decreased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the downstream material factories' raw material inventory has been consumed rapidly [23] - Although supply is still growing, production in Sichuan has decreased slightly. Terminal demand remains strong, and the supply - demand structure has improved [23] Strategy Recommendation - Adopt a low - buying strategy in the range of 82,200 - 84,500 [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level decline, strategic allocation value remains unchanged in the medium to long term [1] - Silver: High-level decline, long-term bullish after stabilization [1] - Copper: Long-term holding, short-term profit-taking [1] - Zinc: Rebound, short-term upside limited, medium to long-term bearish [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong [1] - Nickel: Rebound and then decline [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range-bound operation [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various non-ferrous metals and new energy metals, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It provides insights into the short-term and long-term price trends, as well as investment strategies for each metal [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Situation**: Due to the easing of Sino-US relations and the reduction of risk aversion, the prices of gold and silver have significantly adjusted. In the short term, risk assets have risen sharply, leading to an obvious outflow of funds from safe-haven gold and silver. However, in the long term, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern, potentially maintaining a long-term upward trend [2][3][4]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, pay attention to the support levels of gold and silver. For domestic gold, focus on the 900 support level, and for silver, focus on the effectiveness of the 11000 support level. Long-term value investors should continue to hold their positions [4]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The price of copper has reached a new high this year, but it has given back some of its gains overnight. The market has fully priced in the optimistic expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino-US relations. In the short term, downstream demand is suppressed by high prices, and social inventories have increased. However, in the long term, copper is expected to benefit from the shortage of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [5][6][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short-term long positions should be moved to take profits, and investors should avoid blindly chasing high prices. Long-term strategic long positions should be held, and industrial hedging should consider adding option protection. In the short term, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 86000 - 90000 yuan/ton, and the price of London copper is expected to trade in the range of 10600 - 11200 US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices have continued to rebound, but overall demand is weak, and long-term supply is relatively loose. The silver ten peak season has not been prosperous, and demand is under pressure. The domestic zinc ingot export window has opened, and domestic inventories have slightly increased, while overseas LME zinc inventories are at risk of a soft squeeze [8][9][10]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the upside space may be limited after the short-term macro policy stimulus fades. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the two resistance levels at 22500 and 22800. In the medium to long term, zinc is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, remaining a short position in the sector. The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to trade in the range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton, and the price of London zinc is expected to trade in the range of 2980 - 3080 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Aluminum prices have continued to rise, and the price of alumina has stabilized. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached a high level, and domestic inventories have decreased. The demand side is relatively stable, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has remained flat [11][12][13]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be between 21000 - 21800 yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel prices have rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel prices have also rebounded. Overseas, the supply of nickel ore has become relatively stable, and domestic pure nickel inventories have continued to accumulate. The terminal consumption of stainless steel is in the peak season, but the performance is average, and the market is under pressure to destock [15][16][17]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is expected to be between 120000 - 123000 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The price of lithium carbonate has shown a relatively strong trend. The fundamental situation has improved significantly, with total inventories decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks and the destocking rhythm accelerating after the holiday. Although the supply side continues to grow, the production in Sichuan has decreased slightly due to the shortage of domestic lithium spodumene, while the incremental contribution from the ramping up of salt lake production capacity. Terminal demand remains strong, and the production schedule for November is still relatively high [19][20][21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Long positions should be held, and investors can consider adding positions on pullbacks. The price of the main contract LC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 81000 - 84000 yuan/ton [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment [1] - Silver: High-level adjustment [1] - Copper: Long-term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Bullish [1] - Nickel: Stabilize and recover [1] - Industrial silicon: Range-bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are temporarily halted from falling due to factors such as tense US-Russia relations and uncertain US policies. In the short term, there are key negotiation periods and geopolitical issues, while in the long term, the supporting logic remains unchanged, including the start of an interest rate cut cycle, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1][3]. - Silver prices are in a high-level adjustment. In the short term, the market fluctuates greatly, and in the long term, global policy stimulus will drive up demand, resulting in a continuous supply-demand gap [1]. - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term. With the improvement of the market atmosphere and the increase in risk appetite, it is recommended to hold existing long positions, and new long positions should wait for a pullback [1][7]. - Zinc prices are in a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long term, supply will increase while demand will decrease [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain bullish in the short term due to the stabilization of alumina prices and the depletion of inventories during the peak season [1][14]. - Nickel prices are stabilizing and recovering, supported by the peak season demand for nickel sulfate [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory has been decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks. It is recommended to hold long positions [1][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold and silver prices showed signs of halting their decline due to tense US-Russia relations and the EU's new round of sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and the US economic data was strong. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The long-term upward logic remains unchanged. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity to enter the market when gold and silver prices halt their decline. For domestic gold, pay attention to the support at 930, and for silver, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support at 11,200. Long-term positions can continue to be held [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper opened higher overnight and consolidated at a high level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. After the copper price rose, downstream demand was weak, and domestic social inventories increased slightly [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to continue holding long positions in copper, be cautious about chasing high prices, and new long positions should wait for a pullback. In the long term, copper is a strategic resource in the US-China game and a substitute for precious metals, and its demand is expected to increase [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc opened lower overnight and then rose, recovering the gap [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc smelters are actively producing. The peak season demand is weak, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas markets continues [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc prices are in a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long term, it is still a short position in the sector. Pay attention to the resistance at 22,500 [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continued to rise, and alumina prices stabilized [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached a high level, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices also rose [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances have weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. The peak season demand for stainless steel is not obvious, and the market is under pressure to destock [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for now, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened higher and closed higher, with increasing positions and trading volume [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory has been decreasing for 9 consecutive weeks. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is strong. The main funds may drive up the price when shifting positions [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract, with a focus on the range of 78,500 - 82,000 [22].