1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the black market returned to the fundamental logic of weak terminal demand. The apparent demand for the five major steel products declined, the destocking slowed down, market sentiment weakened, and iron ore port inventories increased significantly. The fundamentals of iron ore were further pressured. The loss - making range of steel mills continued to expand, pig iron production continued to decline. Recently, the overall supply of iron ore fundamentals was strong while demand was weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly [4][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the iron ore 2601 contract fell 4.58% [4] 3.2 Important Market Information - China's gold reserves at the end of October were reported at 74.09 million ounces (about 2304.457 tons), an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) from the previous month, marking the 12th consecutive month of increase. The gold reserves at the end of September were reported at 74.06 million ounces. The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the 2025 No. 29 announcement on suspending the import of US logs, effective from November 10, 2025 [12] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of October 2025, the import volume of iron ore and its concentrates was 111.309 million tons, a decrease of 5.021 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $100.56 per ton, an increase of $3.61 from the previous month. The iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 66.842 million tons, an increase of 1.671 million tons from the previous month; the shipment volume from Brazil was 29.255 million tons, an increase of 1.057 million tons from the first half of the month [17][21] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - According to Mysteel, last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.84 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 87.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 19.91 percentage points; the daily average pig iron production was 2.3422 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21,400 tons [33] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - In the first 10 months, China's iron ore imports were 1.029 billion tons, an increase of 0.7%, and the import average price decreased by 10.7%. In October, China imported 111.309 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates. In October, China's steel exports were 9.782 million tons, a decrease of 683,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5%; from January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 148.9883 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5635 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2093 million tons, an increase of 77,000 tons; the number of ships at ports was 109, a decrease of 9. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 156.2413 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5120 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3555 million tons, an increase of 433,000 tons [32] 3.6 Market Outlook - Recently, the overall supply of iron ore fundamentals was strong while demand was weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly [35] 3.7 Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Go short lightly at high prices - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Wait and see [5][36]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: September 22, 2025 - Analyst: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 2.27%. The Fed's 25bp rate cut and relatively stable Sino-US economic and trade negotiations create a neutral and warm macro - environment. With the support of the consumer peak season and pre - holiday restocking, the commodity market may run stably in the short term. Precious metals are likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall, while the short - term trend of other sectors varies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector up 2.27%, energy and chemicals up 1.42%, and precious metals, agricultural products, and non - ferrous metals down 0.8%, 0.78%, and 0.66% respectively. The top - rising varieties were coking coal, coke, and glass, while the top - falling ones were live pigs, soybean meal, and tin. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and only the black and agricultural product sectors had net capital inflows [2][7]. - **Market Data Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the performance of different sectors and varieties, including the rise and fall of the Nanhua Index, the weekly contribution rate of each sector of the China Securities Commodity Index, the fluctuation of each variety's main contract, the performance of commodity - related sector indexes, the precipitation funds of each commodity sector, the weekly precipitation fund changes of each variety, the average trading - to - holding ratio of each variety, macro - high - frequency data, relevant ratios, and black - industry chain ratios [8][10][12] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the sector initially corrected due to profit - taking but rebounded on the dovish remarks of the new Fed governor. It is likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled, but the restart of rate cuts still provides short - term support. With the pre - holiday restocking and improving macro - sentiment, the sector may run stably in the short term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved, production continued to decline, and inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills have pre - holiday restocking needs, but low profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The iron ore port inventory decreased, and the coking coal's capacity expansion is less likely. The sector fluctuates with policy expectations [3]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices rose and then fell last week. The Fed's 25bp rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the supply - demand contradiction after the peak oil - consumption season will gradually intensify. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the premium space is limited. Trump's statement to lower oil prices also affects market sentiment. Oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester, the weaving load decreased slightly, and filament inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream has pre - holiday stocking expectations, but cost support is weak. Building materials such as glass and PVC still face high - supply and low - demand situations, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The actual export demand for US soybeans was poor, and the Sino - US call did not mention agricultural product trade. The overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September was inconsistent. The short - term domestic supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and the sector may run in a volatile manner [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - The report provides information on various commodity ETFs, including net value, weekly return, scale, share change, trading volume, trading volume change, and underlying assets. Gold - related ETFs have different performance in terms of return and scale change, and other commodity ETFs such as energy - chemical and agricultural - product - related ones also show different trends [41]