研究报告 铁矿周报 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 年 报告日期：2025 | 11 | 月 | 17 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2601 合约上涨 0.91%。 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 基本面：国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 10 月，中国粗钢产量 7200 万 吨，同比下降 12.1%。1-10 月，中国粗钢产量 81787 万吨，同比下降 3.9%。 据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 82.81%，环比减少 0.3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the black market returned to the fundamental logic of weak terminal demand. The apparent demand for the five major steel products declined, the destocking slowed down, market sentiment weakened, and iron ore port inventories increased significantly. The fundamentals of iron ore were further pressured. The loss - making range of steel mills continued to expand, pig iron production continued to decline. Recently, the overall supply of iron ore fundamentals was strong while demand was weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly [4][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the iron ore 2601 contract fell 4.58% [4] 3.2 Important Market Information - China's gold reserves at the end of October were reported at 74.09 million ounces (about 2304.457 tons), an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) from the previous month, marking the 12th consecutive month of increase. The gold reserves at the end of September were reported at 74.06 million ounces. The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the 2025 No. 29 announcement on suspending the import of US logs, effective from November 10, 2025 [12] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of October 2025, the import volume of iron ore and its concentrates was 111.309 million tons, a decrease of 5.021 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $100.56 per ton, an increase of $3.61 from the previous month. The iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 66.842 million tons, an increase of 1.671 million tons from the previous month; the shipment volume from Brazil was 29.255 million tons, an increase of 1.057 million tons from the first half of the month [17][21] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - According to Mysteel, last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.84 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 87.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 19.91 percentage points; the daily average pig iron production was 2.3422 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21,400 tons [33] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - In the first 10 months, China's iron ore imports were 1.029 billion tons, an increase of 0.7%, and the import average price decreased by 10.7%. In October, China imported 111.309 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates. In October, China's steel exports were 9.782 million tons, a decrease of 683,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5%; from January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 148.9883 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5635 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2093 million tons, an increase of 77,000 tons; the number of ships at ports was 109, a decrease of 9. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 156.2413 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5120 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3555 million tons, an increase of 433,000 tons [32] 3.6 Market Outlook - Recently, the overall supply of iron ore fundamentals was strong while demand was weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly [35] 3.7 Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Go short lightly at high prices - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Wait and see [5][36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★ [5] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the iron ore 2601 contract declined by 3.08%. Trade friction escalation increased market risk aversion. Future molten iron production is likely to decline from its high level, with the iron ore supply - demand balance weakening marginally. However, the downside space is expected to be limited, and iron ore is predicted to fluctuate [4][31]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and options trading, and adopt a strategy of going long on iron ore and short on rebar for arbitrage [5][32][33] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The iron ore 2601 contract dropped 3.08% last week [4] 2. Important Market Information - On October 15, the China Iron and Steel Association held a symposium. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, domestic steel demand is expected to decline. There is a transition from production control to carbon emission control, and green steel structures should be promoted [13] 3. Supply - side Situation - In September, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,633 tons, an increase of 1,111 tons from the previous month, and the average import price was $96.95 per ton, up $4.23 from the previous month [17] - As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 6,517.1 tons, an increase of 434.2 tons from the previous month, while Brazil's was 2,819.8 tons, a decrease of 415.9 tons from the first half of the month [21] 4. Demand - side Situation - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, Tangshan blast furnace operating rate, and Shanghai terminal wire rod and rebar procurement volume are considered, but specific data trends are not fully detailed in the given text [22][27][28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, unchanged from the previous week and up 2.59% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, down 0.22% from the previous week and up 2.34% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, down 0.87% from the previous week and down 19.05% year - on - year; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 0.0059 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.00659 million tons year - on - year [29] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 142.7827 million tons, an increase of 2.5377 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1572 million tons, a decrease of 0.1128 million tons; the number of ships at ports increased by 23 [30] 6. Future Outlook - Due to the escalation of trade frictions last week, market risk aversion increased. Future molten iron production is likely to decline from its high level, the iron ore supply - demand balance will weaken marginally, but the downside space is limited, and iron ore is expected to fluctuate [31] 7. Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: Stay on the sidelines [32] - Arbitrage: Go long on iron ore and short on rebar [33] - Options trading: Stay on the sidelines [33]

Report Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 1.53%. Although there will be some concentrated restocking demand from steel mills after the holiday, and there are concerns about tightened iron ore imports due to the long - term agreement negotiation between China National Mineral Resources Group and mines, in general, it has little short - term impact on the market. Recently, iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Futures Price**: No detailed content provided [7] - **Spread Analysis**: Focused on the basis (per dry ton), no detailed data given [12] - **Position Analysis**: Conducted a net position analysis of futures seats, no detailed data given [10] 2. Important Market Information - The Ministry of Transport will start charging a special port toll on US - related ships from October 14th. The Ministry of Commerce urged the US to correct its wrong practices and will take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese entities. Since mid - September, Tangshan, Hebei has implemented an environmental protection production restriction policy, and the restriction intensity has increased after the holiday [15]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of August 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 10,522 million tons, an increase of 60 million tons from the previous month, and the average import price was $92.72 per ton, an increase of $1.31 from the previous month. As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 6,517.1 million tons, an increase of 434.2 million tons from the previous month, while Brazil's was 2,819.8 million tons, a decrease of 415.9 million tons from the first half of the month [19][22]. 4. Demand - side Situation - No detailed data provided, but the report mentioned 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal output, Tangshan's blast furnace operating rate, and Shanghai's terminal wire and bar procurement volume [24][25][26] 5. Fundamental Analysis - As of the week of October 8th, the production and apparent demand of rebar decreased, and the factory and social inventories increased. Rebar production was 203.4 million tons, a decrease of 3.62 million tons or 1.75% from the previous week, and the total rebar inventory was 659.64 million tons, a cumulative increase of 57.39 million tons. On October 10th, the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 9046.19 million tons, a decrease of 990.60 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore in sample steel mills was 299.14 million tons, an increase of 0.34 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, a decrease of 3.35 days. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 14024.50 million tons, an increase of 24.22 million tons; the inventory in 47 ports was 14641.08 million tons, an increase of 90.40 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous week and an increase of 3.48% year - on - year. In late September 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1889 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 188.9 million tons, a daily output decrease of 8.9%; 1817 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 181.7 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.9%; 2142 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 214.2 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.0% [29][30][31] 6. Market Outlook - Although there will be some concentrated restocking demand from steel mills after the holiday, and there are concerns about tightened iron ore imports due to the long - term agreement negotiation between China National Mineral Resources Group and mines, in general, it has little short - term impact on the market. Recently, iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [5][32] 7. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Try to go long lightly at low levels within the range - **Arbitrage**: Long iron ore - short rebar arbitrage strategy - **Options**: Wait and see [6][33]

Supply - Global shipments this week saw a significant decline, with a total of 27.562 million tons shipped, down by 8.006 million tons week-on-week [1] - Port arrivals decreased to 24.480 million tons, a drop of 0.078 million tons week-on-week [1] - Monthly import volume reached 105.225 million tons, an increase of 0.602 million tons month-on-month [1] Demand - As of September 11, daily iron and steel production averaged 2.4055 million tons, up by 0.1171 million tons week-on-week [1] - Blast furnace operating rate was 83.83%, an increase of 3.43% week-on-week [1] - Ironmaking capacity utilization rate reached 90.18%, up by 4.39% week-on-week [1] - Steel mill profit margin stood at 60.17%, a slight decrease of 0.87% week-on-week [1] Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight decrease, with average daily port throughput increasing [1] - Steel mill imported ore inventory increased by 0.532 million tons week-on-week, totaling 89.931 million tons [1] - Port inventory at 45 ports was 138.4947 million tons, a minor decrease of 0.2 million tons [1] - Average daily throughput at 45 ports was 3.313 million tons, an increase of 0.135 million tons week-on-week [1] Market Outlook - The iron ore 2601 contract exhibited a strong oscillating trend this week [2] - A significant drop in global iron ore shipments was noted, primarily due to maintenance at three Brazilian ports [2] - Steel mill profit margins have slightly decreased, but iron and steel production has rebounded significantly, indicating increased restocking demand [2] - Port inventory has seen a slight accumulation, while throughput has increased [2] - The market outlook remains balanced but tight, with a recommendation to buy on dips for the iron ore 2601 contract within the range of 780-850 [2][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent supply of iron ore has tightened, while demand remains resilient, and the supply - demand fundamentals are currently stable. In the short term, steel mill profits are expected to remain at a good level, so the short - term hot metal production is unlikely to drop significantly, which supports the price. However, the uncertainty of macro - policies' impact on the resilience of hot metal should be noted. It is expected that the short - term ore price will maintain a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in the iron ore 2601 contract, with a reference support level of 750 yuan/ton [2][36]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends Review - Futures market: As of August 14, the price of the iron ore main contract I2601 declined this week, closing at 775 yuan/ton, with a position of 452,000 lots, an increase of 116,000 lots [7]. - Spot market: This week, the spot prices of imported ores at ports showed mixed trends. The price of 64.5% Carajás fines at Qingdao Port was 880 yuan/ton, the price of 62.5% BRBF decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 807 yuan/ton, the price of 61.5% PB fines increased by 1 yuan/ton to 771 yuan/ton, the price of 61% Jinbuba fines was 755 yuan/ton, and the price of 56.5% Super Special fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 645 yuan/ton. For domestic ores, the price of 64% iron concentrate powder in Shahe remained at 810 yuan/ton, the price of 66% iron concentrate powder in Tangshan increased by 5 yuan/ton to 788 yuan/ton, and the price of 65% iron concentrate powder in Anshan increased by 10 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Spot variety spreads: This week, the overall correction range of imported ore prices was relatively consistent, and the spread changes were relatively small [14]. - Futures - spot and futures monthly spreads: This week, the main 2601 contract of iron ore had a premium of 4 yuan/ton over the 61.5% PB fines spot at Qingdao Port, narrowing by 16 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between 2509 - 2601 of iron ore was 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the spread between 2601 - 2605 of iron ore was 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [18]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Overseas ore shipments and domestic arrivals: As of August 8, Australia's weekly shipment was 1.5183 million tons, and Brazil's weekly shipment was 0.7305 million tons, with a total of 2.2488 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Overseas ore shipments are at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years, and future domestic supply is sufficient [24]. - Domestic ore capacity utilization rate: As of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mines nationwide was 64.78%, a month - on - month increase of 2.72% [25]. - Iron ore freight rates: The freight from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was 25.14 US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 1.03 US dollars; the freight from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was 10.15 US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 US dollars [26]. 3.2.2 Demand - As of August 15, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 4.30 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the daily average hot metal output was 240,660 tons, an increase of 340 tons compared with last week and an increase of 118,900 tons compared with the same period last year. With the increase in steel mill hot metal production, the daily consumption of imported ores by sample steel mills this week rebounded by 370 tons to 298,520 tons. Moreover, the short - term decline in iron ore prices accelerated steel mill purchases. This week, the inventory of imported ores in steel mills increased significantly by 123,060 tons to 9.1364 million tons, reaching a new high since May [30]. 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 64 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 1.31783 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,970 tons. The average proportion of imported ores used in sinter was 86.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41 percentage points. The average tax - free hot metal cost of steel mills was 2,302 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton. The total inventory of imported iron ores at 45 ports nationwide surveyed by Mysteel was 13.81927 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 107,000 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 334,670 tons, an increase of 12,820 tons; the number of ships at ports was 93, a decrease of 12 [31]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Recommendations - This week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, and the arrivals also decreased synchronously, with the overall supply tightening month - on - month. In terms of demand, the hot metal output increased slightly, but the increase was not large, and the iron ore demand still showed resilience. In terms of inventory, the port clearance volume increased significantly, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory remained basically unchanged. In general, the recent supply of iron ore has tightened, while the demand remains resilient, and the supply - demand fundamentals are currently stable. In the short term, steel mill profits are expected to remain at a good level, so the short - term hot metal production is unlikely to drop significantly, which supports the price. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in the iron ore 2601 contract, with a reference support level of 750 yuan/ton [36].