Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★ [5] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the iron ore 2601 contract declined by 3.08%. Trade friction escalation increased market risk aversion. Future molten iron production is likely to decline from its high level, with the iron ore supply - demand balance weakening marginally. However, the downside space is expected to be limited, and iron ore is predicted to fluctuate [4][31]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and options trading, and adopt a strategy of going long on iron ore and short on rebar for arbitrage [5][32][33] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The iron ore 2601 contract dropped 3.08% last week [4] 2. Important Market Information - On October 15, the China Iron and Steel Association held a symposium. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, domestic steel demand is expected to decline. There is a transition from production control to carbon emission control, and green steel structures should be promoted [13] 3. Supply - side Situation - In September, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,633 tons, an increase of 1,111 tons from the previous month, and the average import price was $96.95 per ton, up $4.23 from the previous month [17] - As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 6,517.1 tons, an increase of 434.2 tons from the previous month, while Brazil's was 2,819.8 tons, a decrease of 415.9 tons from the first half of the month [21] 4. Demand - side Situation - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, Tangshan blast furnace operating rate, and Shanghai terminal wire rod and rebar procurement volume are considered, but specific data trends are not fully detailed in the given text [22][27][28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, unchanged from the previous week and up 2.59% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, down 0.22% from the previous week and up 2.34% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, down 0.87% from the previous week and down 19.05% year - on - year; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 0.0059 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.00659 million tons year - on - year [29] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 142.7827 million tons, an increase of 2.5377 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1572 million tons, a decrease of 0.1128 million tons; the number of ships at ports increased by 23 [30] 6. Future Outlook - Due to the escalation of trade frictions last week, market risk aversion increased. Future molten iron production is likely to decline from its high level, the iron ore supply - demand balance will weaken marginally, but the downside space is limited, and iron ore is expected to fluctuate [31] 7. Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: Stay on the sidelines [32] - Arbitrage: Go long on iron ore and short on rebar [33] - Options trading: Stay on the sidelines [33]

Report Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 1.53%. Although there will be some concentrated restocking demand from steel mills after the holiday, and there are concerns about tightened iron ore imports due to the long - term agreement negotiation between China National Mineral Resources Group and mines, in general, it has little short - term impact on the market. Recently, iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Futures Price**: No detailed content provided [7] - **Spread Analysis**: Focused on the basis (per dry ton), no detailed data given [12] - **Position Analysis**: Conducted a net position analysis of futures seats, no detailed data given [10] 2. Important Market Information - The Ministry of Transport will start charging a special port toll on US - related ships from October 14th. The Ministry of Commerce urged the US to correct its wrong practices and will take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese entities. Since mid - September, Tangshan, Hebei has implemented an environmental protection production restriction policy, and the restriction intensity has increased after the holiday [15]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of August 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 10,522 million tons, an increase of 60 million tons from the previous month, and the average import price was $92.72 per ton, an increase of $1.31 from the previous month. As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 6,517.1 million tons, an increase of 434.2 million tons from the previous month, while Brazil's was 2,819.8 million tons, a decrease of 415.9 million tons from the first half of the month [19][22]. 4. Demand - side Situation - No detailed data provided, but the report mentioned 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal output, Tangshan's blast furnace operating rate, and Shanghai's terminal wire and bar procurement volume [24][25][26] 5. Fundamental Analysis - As of the week of October 8th, the production and apparent demand of rebar decreased, and the factory and social inventories increased. Rebar production was 203.4 million tons, a decrease of 3.62 million tons or 1.75% from the previous week, and the total rebar inventory was 659.64 million tons, a cumulative increase of 57.39 million tons. On October 10th, the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 9046.19 million tons, a decrease of 990.60 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore in sample steel mills was 299.14 million tons, an increase of 0.34 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, a decrease of 3.35 days. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 14024.50 million tons, an increase of 24.22 million tons; the inventory in 47 ports was 14641.08 million tons, an increase of 90.40 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous week and an increase of 3.48% year - on - year. In late September 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1889 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 188.9 million tons, a daily output decrease of 8.9%; 1817 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 181.7 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.9%; 2142 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 214.2 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.0% [29][30][31] 6. Market Outlook - Although there will be some concentrated restocking demand from steel mills after the holiday, and there are concerns about tightened iron ore imports due to the long - term agreement negotiation between China National Mineral Resources Group and mines, in general, it has little short - term impact on the market. Recently, iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [5][32] 7. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Try to go long lightly at low levels within the range - **Arbitrage**: Long iron ore - short rebar arbitrage strategy - **Options**: Wait and see [6][33]

Supply - Global shipments this week saw a significant decline, with a total of 27.562 million tons shipped, down by 8.006 million tons week-on-week [1] - Port arrivals decreased to 24.480 million tons, a drop of 0.078 million tons week-on-week [1] - Monthly import volume reached 105.225 million tons, an increase of 0.602 million tons month-on-month [1] Demand - As of September 11, daily iron and steel production averaged 2.4055 million tons, up by 0.1171 million tons week-on-week [1] - Blast furnace operating rate was 83.83%, an increase of 3.43% week-on-week [1] - Ironmaking capacity utilization rate reached 90.18%, up by 4.39% week-on-week [1] - Steel mill profit margin stood at 60.17%, a slight decrease of 0.87% week-on-week [1] Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight decrease, with average daily port throughput increasing [1] - Steel mill imported ore inventory increased by 0.532 million tons week-on-week, totaling 89.931 million tons [1] - Port inventory at 45 ports was 138.4947 million tons, a minor decrease of 0.2 million tons [1] - Average daily throughput at 45 ports was 3.313 million tons, an increase of 0.135 million tons week-on-week [1] Market Outlook - The iron ore 2601 contract exhibited a strong oscillating trend this week [2] - A significant drop in global iron ore shipments was noted, primarily due to maintenance at three Brazilian ports [2] - Steel mill profit margins have slightly decreased, but iron and steel production has rebounded significantly, indicating increased restocking demand [2] - Port inventory has seen a slight accumulation, while throughput has increased [2] - The market outlook remains balanced but tight, with a recommendation to buy on dips for the iron ore 2601 contract within the range of 780-850 [2][4]

铁矿石周度策略报告 铁水高位难降，支撑铁矿价格 核心观点： 本周澳巴发运回落，到港同步走低，整体供应环比收紧；需求方面，铁水产量小幅回升，但幅度不大，铁矿 需求仍显韧性；库存来看，疏港是大幅回升，港口库存小幅增加，钢厂库存基本持平。 综合来看，近期铁矿供应收紧，需求同步韧性足，供需基本面目前平稳。短期内，钢厂利润有望维持在良好 水平，因此短期铁水产量难以深降，对价格有支撑。但仍需警惕宏观政策的不确定性对铁水韧性的影响，预计短 期矿价维持区间震荡。操作上建议铁矿 2601 合约多单继续持有，参考支撑位 750 元/吨。 后市展望：短期高位震荡盘整，长期趋势向上 | 铁矿 | 观点 | 分析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 偏多 | 截至 8 月 8 日，澳大利亚周发货 1518.3 万吨，巴西周发货量 730.5 万吨，合计 2248.8 万吨，环比-3%。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 随着钢厂铁水产量的攀升，本周样本钢厂进口矿日耗回升 0.37 万吨至 298.52 万 吨，而且铁矿价格短线下挫令钢厂采购加速，本周钢厂内进口量库存大增 123.06 万吨 至 9136.4 万吨，创自 ...